Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 130839
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
339 AM CDT Sun Aug 13 2017

.UPDATE...
Have gone ahead removed a few counties from the Flood Watch for
the remainder of the early morning hours.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 327 AM CDT Sun Aug 13 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Main concerns this morning are with regards to next complex of
storms Sunday night into Monday and warming temperatures later
this week.

Some lingering rain across southeast Oklahoma this morning
expected to gradually shift east. Otherwise, a few showers remain
possible, but most locations should remain dry during the day
today. By this evening, complex of storms will develop to our west
across the high plains, then track southeast into western
Oklahoma mainly after midnight. Some strong/severe storms with
strong wind gusts, may occur, especially early on across western
parts of the area. Still appears highest chances will linger into
the day Monday across southern half of area and areas of heavy
rain are likely. Will hold off on flood watch for late tonight and
Monday morning, but will pass on concern to next shift.

By Monday night, larger western trough begins to take shape,
transitioning the plains back to a west/southwest mid-level flow.
Although will continue to see rain chances, not expecting any
additional large-scale heavy rain events for a few days. However,
with this transition, south winds will return and become quite
gusty by the time we get into the Tue/Wed time frame. This along
with veered low level 850mb flow, temperatures are expected to
respond by climbing back into the 90s for highs. Could approach
the century mark across southwest Oklahoma and western north
Texas. This will combine with humid conditions to produce heat
indices that may approach advisory criteria.

By mid-week, a trough will move through the northern Plains,
which will push a surface front south toward the area. A higher
chance of rain and thunderstorms will accompany this front across
northern Oklahoma Wednesday night into Thursday. This front may
retreat northward by Thursday night, but will again be the focus
for rain/thunderstorms across the north. Latest GFS keeps this
boundary near the northern border into the following weekend,
keeping northern Oklahoma with higher rain chances.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  82  70  85  73 /  20  50  50  30
Hobart OK         85  70  90  73 /  20  60  30  30
Wichita Falls TX  88  74  94  76 /  20  60  30  20
Gage OK           82  66  86  70 /  20  50  20  40
Ponca City OK     83  69  86  71 /  20  20  30  40
Durant OK         86  74  88  75 /  60  40  40  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for OKZ032-043-046>048-
     050>052.

TX...None.
&&

$$

06/30



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