Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 202348
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
548 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS.

OVERALL...THINK WORSENING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT ALL SITES
THROUGH 18Z...THOUGH EXACTLY WHEN AND HOW BAD CONDITIONS WILL
GET REMAIN VERY UNCERTAIN. ALL SITES WILL BE MVFR OR LOWER BY
06Z. WIDESPREAD IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA...MAINLY AFTER 12Z. CHANCES OF CONDITIONS DROPPING BELOW
AIRPORT MINIMUMS REMAIN LOW. IMPROVING CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR WEST
OF KAVK-KLAW-KSPS AFTER 18Z.

PATCHES/AREAS OF -DZ WILL DEVELOP AFTER 09Z...MAINLY EAST OF
KAVK-KSPS.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE BOUNDED BY STRONG INVERSION IS NOT EXPECTED TO GO
ANYWHERE UNTIL COLD FRONT SURGES IN LATE MONDAY. MIXING ON HIGHER
TERRAIN HAS PROGRESSED INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF
NORTHERN TEXAS...BUT THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT VERY FAR EAST
THIS EVENING. BACKING/INCREASING FLOW AHEAD OF INCOMING S/WV
EXPECTED TO ALLOW STRATUS AND FOG TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT. WITH THE
CLEARING ACROSS FAR WESTERN/NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THIS
EVENING...COULD SEE TEMPS FALL WELL DOWN INTO THE 30S BEFORE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS BEGIN TO SURGE NORTHWARD. THIS COULD LEAD TO A
FAIR AMOUNT OF DENSE FOG LATE TONIGHT AND WILL MENTION THIS IN THE
GRIDS. FOG EXPECTED ELSEWHERE...BUT NOT AS DENSE. PATCHY DRIZZLE
ALSO EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING AS TROUGH APPROACHES.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AS WELL BUT WILL NOT MENTION IN
THIS ISSUANCE.

IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MENTIONED COLD FRONT...DEEP AND VERY COLD
TROUGH WILL EVOLVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND POINTS EAST LATE
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH DEVELOPMENT OF POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION. BASED SOLELY ON
THICKNESS PROGS AND HISTORICAL H7-H5 THERMAL THRESHOLDS...ONE
MIGHT EXPECT SNOW ACROSS WESTERN/SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...WITH LOWER LEVEL DETERMINISTIC PROGS AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...LOWER LEVELS APPEARS TO STAY TOO WARM FOR TOO LONG FOR
ANYTHING MORE THAN A POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW MIX BEFORE ENDING NEAR THE
RED RIVER. THIS SCENARIO WILL BE MONITORED BUT AT THIS TIME NO
MENTION OF SNOW IN LATEST FORECAST ISSUANCE.

COOL DOWN WILL NOT LAST LONG AS SOUTHWEST FLOW COMMENCES LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO CHRISTMAS DAY AHEAD OF NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT STILL EXPECTED CHRISTMAS NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS FROPA
APPEARS TO BE DRY AND WILL BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN CLOSER TO
AVERAGE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  39  50  42  57 /  10  10  10  10
HOBART OK         38  53  38  57 /  10  10  10   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  39  55  41  63 /  10  10  10   0
GAGE OK           34  53  36  55 /  10  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     37  49  43  54 /  10  10  10  20
DURANT OK         41  52  45  59 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/17/17


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