Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 230240
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
840 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WE HAVE LOWERED PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG OUR SOUTHERN
BORDER...CONSISTENT WITH TRENDS IN THE LATEST NUMERICAL MODELS.
CANNOT RULE OUT LIGHT RAIN/SNOW IN THE RED RIVER REGION
YET...THOUGH...AS THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM ALOFT IS STILL MOVING
TOWARD US FROM THE WEST.

HAVE ATTEMPTED TO ADJUST TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT TO REFLECT THE
EFFECTS OF THE REMAINING SNOW COVER IN WEST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...SOME PATCHES OF GROUND FOG MAY
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY NEAR I-40 IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA TOWARD SUNRISE.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS NOT YET HIGH ENOUGH TO PUT IN THE
FORECAST.

OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 529 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015/

AVIATION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.

DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO MAINLY OCCUR.

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH BR MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE
AREA 06-16Z WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF THESE LOWER CONDITIONS
ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AS WELL AS WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS. KEPT MVFR MENTION AT KOUN...KCSM...AND KHBR WHERE
CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE IS MODERATE. OTHERWISE...CONFIDENCE OF
OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION.

THERE MAY BE SOME -RA OR -RASN NEAR KSPS THOUGH 12Z BUT DID NOT
MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015/

DISCUSSION..
AFTER A BRIEF ROUND OF WINTER WEATHER LAST NIGHT INTO EARLY THIS
MORNING...WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND LAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...EXTENDING
FROM NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN KANSAS WILL MOVE ACROSS OKLAHOMA
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. BETTER MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL FAVOR HIGHER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SOUTH OF THE FA. HOWEVER...SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION MAY OCCUR ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

ALTHOUGH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND...EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  29  49  30  57 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         28  47  29  55 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  31  49  30  57 /  20  10   0   0
GAGE OK           21  46  27  54 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     26  50  29  57 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         36  49  31  57 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/17



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