Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS64 KOUN 012056
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
256 PM CST Thu Dec 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...
The current forecast challenge is precipitation and low temperatures
over the weekend.

The seasonably cool and dry weather will come to an end tomorrow as
an upper level low moves in. Fairly high confidence in precipitation
spreading over the CWA Friday night through Saturday. The question
that comes up is in regard to precipitation type across northwest
Oklahoma Saturday morning. Model blends want to bring surface
temperatures down to freezing or just below in that region. However,
these blends incorporate bias corrected grids which may not be
appropriate for the weather regime change. GFS and ECMWF raw data
are trending 5 to 7 degrees warmer than the blend. The more recent
NAM guidance is trending cooler than previous runs, though still a
bit warmer than the blend. Trended on the warmer side using a raw
model blend, leaving out bias corrected guidance. Left a small
region of rain/snow mix in far northwest Oklahoma, but not
expecting any kind of accumulation.

A second round of precipitation is expected Monday morning as the
low lifts back out. Timing does not look to be concurrent with the
low temperatures to present any risk of frozen precipitation.

After this, models begin to diverge greatly. ECMWF lags a full 24
hours behind the GFS in the timing of a low mid week next week. This
will bring in a strong blast of cold air, but the front looks to be
fairly dry.

Day

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  59  34  56  43 /   0   0  20  60
Hobart OK         58  32  54  42 /   0   0  40  70
Wichita Falls TX  62  40  56  45 /   0   0  40  70
Gage OK           51  27  51  36 /   0   0  20  60
Ponca City OK     56  33  55  40 /   0   0  10  50
Durant OK         61  40  60  46 /   0   0  10  70

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

04/14



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.