Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 031731
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1131 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...
THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO OK AND N TX THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A STRONG MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL BRING A FEW
CLOUDS WITH BASES AROUND 10000-20000 FT TONIGHT/TOMORROW...MAINLY
TO S OK AND N TX...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT CEILINGS OR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE PASSES OVER OK/N
TX LATE TONIGHT/TOMORROW MORNING...N-NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE...THEN BECOME LIGHT S-SW.

CMS
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016/

UPDATE...
NUDGED HIGHS UPWARD A DEGREE TODAY AND TWEAKED SKY COVER DOWNWARD
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...
COOL AND MOSTLY SUNNY WEATHER WILL OCCUR TODAY.

MADE THE CHANGES ABOVE BASED ON LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND
VISIBLE SATELLITE. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...THEN DISSIPATE SIGNIFICANTLY TOWARDS SUNSET.

PRODUCTS WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 540 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016/

AVIATION...
0312/0412 TAFS...

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING.
MEANWHILE...VFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AT PNC THROUGH
13Z...OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016/

DISCUSSION...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH
THE MORNING AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WEAKENS. TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE AND THE WIND WILL ADD A CHILL TO THE
AIR...ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING. WITH RATHER DRY AIR IN PLACE AND A
LIGHT WIND TONIGHT...TEMPERATURE WILL BE RATHER CHILLY. A MID-
LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
OVERNIGHT AND THIS MAY PROVIDE VARIABLE HIGH CLOUD COVER.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND RETURNS.

A TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL AT
LEAST BRING AN INCREASE IN MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WITH PERHAPS SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. FOR
NOW WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

ANOTHER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
SUNDAY. THE GFS AND CANADIAN PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WITH
THIS SYSTEM WHILE THE EC IS FARTHER NORTH AND DRY. MOST OF THE GFS
EMSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE DRY WITH THIS TROUGH WITH BETTER CHANCES
NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE SUNDAY DRY
WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER.

EARLY NEXT WEEK APPEARS DRY WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  44  25  50  30 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         45  22  50  29 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  48  24  54  29 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           42  17  50  24 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     41  21  49  27 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         48  27  52  32 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/23/23



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