Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 220326
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1026 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...
AS MOST SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE A VERY POOR HANDLE ON EXISTING
SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND FAR WESTERN
OKLAHOMA...CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST IS LOW.
HOWEVER...AS RAIN IS MOVING INTO THE AREA...OPTED TO ADJUST POPS
UP ACROSS FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. RAINFALL
RATES ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS ROUND...AND MOST HI-RES
MODELS SHOW THIS INITIAL WAVE WEAKENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH A SECONDARY BATCH OF SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING TO ITS
WEST. EVEN THOUGH RAINFALL RATES ARE UNIMPRESSIVE OVERALL...SOME
AREAS OF SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS MAY SEE
PROLONGED LIGHT RAINFALL...WITH OCCASIONAL MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY AS SEVERAL WAVES OF SHOWERS/STORMS
MOVE THROUGH. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME RISE IN AREA RIVERS
AND LAKES...AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. HEAVIER RAINFALL IS LIKELY TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE FRIDAY
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. SINCE THE OVERALL THINKING REGARDING THE
EVOLUTION OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND HAS CHANGED
LITTLE...WILL GO AHEAD AND KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH INTACT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015/

AVIATION...
06Z TAFS... MVFR/VFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT
AND CONTINUE FRIDAY. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE WOULD SAY A FEW SITES
MAY DROP TO IFR LEVELS. RAIN AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE FRIDAY. HEAVY RAIN
PRODUCING LOW VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS WITH
THIS ACTIVITY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  53  63  58  73 /  50  80  50  80
HOBART OK         53  64  58  71 /  70  80  50  80
WICHITA FALLS TX  56  70  63  76 /  60  70  50  80
GAGE OK           50  65  55  70 /  80  70  60  70
PONCA CITY OK     50  63  55  72 /  30  80  60  80
DURANT OK         58  69  61  77 /  40  60  30  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR OKZ019>048-050>052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

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