Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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082
FXUS64 KOUN 281727
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1227 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

.AVIATION...
Main impact for this TAF cycle is an expected storm complex coming
down out of Kansas late tonight. There`s still a lot of
uncertainty in the timing of the complex and how far south it will
track. Earliest models show the complex entering Oklahoma by 02Z,
while later models hold things off till after midnight. Fairly
high confidence that northern TAF sites will be impacted, but
lower confidence that storms will persist further south.

Day

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1050 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2016/

UPDATE...
Minor tweaks have been made to a few multimedia graphics regarding
timing and severe weather threat areas through tonight, but no
meaningful changes to the forecast/grids.

We continue to evaluate the potential for a convective complex to
impact the region this evening/tonight. Uncertainty remains with
respect to the evolution of convection over the south central
plains later today/this evening. A few high resolution models
depict an organized complex with damaging wind potential beginning
to impact northwest Oklahoma by 8-10 pm, while other solutions
delay convection until after midnight and toward Friday morning.
It is possible thunderstorms may propagate along a more southward
trajectory into a theta-e axis and low level jet which will be
more pronounced out west over the Panhandles.

Consensus is for an organized complex of storms to move southward
to the vicinity of northwest Oklahoma during the 9 pm to 1 am
timeframe, then progress south/southeastward after midnight.

Current trends and expectations suggest a severe weather threat,
mainly damaging wind potential, will exist over the northwestern
half of Oklahoma. Prospects for diurnal pulse type convection late
this afternoon and early evening appears less today, except
perhaps over northwest zones where several boundaries linger.
Otherwise the onset of severe weather potential will likely be
after 9 pm.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 337 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Rain chances and strong to severe thunderstorm potential today
through early Sunday are the primary concerns.

This morning, increased rain chances northwest of I-44 to account
for a complex of storms over southwestern Kansas that was moving
southeast as of 330 am. Not completely sure these storms will
hold together as they move into a stronger capped and weaker shear
environment over the next several hours in northern Oklahoma. If
they hold together, do not think they will be severe, though heavy
downpours with up to a quick inch of rainfall as well as gusty
winds up to 50 mph would be possible. Additional isolated storms
may form near the Red River east of Wichita Falls where there
appears to be weak low/mid level moisture convergence. Cannot
completely rule out some patchy fog as well, but did not mention
due to low confidence of occurrence.

This afternoon, there may be a lull in storm activity, but
confidence is low as the air will remain moist, unstable, and
weakly capped. Kept 20-30% chances areawide. Severe potential
remains low, though cannot completely rule out a few damaging wind
reports around 60 mph. Storms could produce locally heavy rainfall
as well. Used a blend of guidance highs which should be similar to
yesterday`s numbers in many locations.

Tonight, strong to severe thunderstorm potential in the form of
damaging winds will likely increase across the area, especially
in northwestern Oklahoma.  A large complex of storms may form in
western Kansas this evening and dive southeast through the night,
though not completely sure this will occur as storms during the
day today may alter the nearby environment. Unusually strong
shear (0-6 km bulk shear 25-45 kt) for this time of year and some
instability support that a fast moving squall line capable of
producing widespread damaging winds in the 60-80 mph range could
form. Greatest storm chances seem to be in northwestern Oklahoma
according to latest model guidance. If the complex occurs, the
line may weaken as it gets towards southern Oklahoma and north
Texas late tonight and early Friday morning. The timing of this
possible complex remains uncertain, but most model guidance
suggest in the 10 PM (northwestern Oklahoma) to 6 AM (near the Red
River) time frame.

Widespread rainfall 0.50-2" across the western two thirds of
Oklahoma and western north Texas will be possible tonight.
Localized flash flooding may be possible with very high rainfall
rates of 2-5"/hr, though the duration of rainfall may be less than
an hour as the complex may move quickly south or southeast.

Friday, some storms may linger across the area, but confidence is
low, and think most areas will remain dry for much of the day. If
storms can reform, strong shear and sufficient instability would
support some severe storms with damaging winds and locally heavy
rainfall. The possible complex of storms tonight may stabilize the
air and reduce instability. Went toward the lower side of guidance
highs in many areas thinking that cooler low level air from
tonight`s complex of storms and cloud cover may limit heating.

Friday night through early Sunday, an active weather pattern may
continue with additional complexes of storms. Strong to severe
storms will be possible capable of producing damaging winds and
heavy rainfall. Unusually strong shear supports multicells
clusters and lines of storms that may move quickly south or
southeast and bring large areas of rainfall. Generally went
20-40% rain chances during this time frame with the highest
chances in north central Oklahoma. There will be many more dry
hours than wet ones. Seasonably hot and humid conditions will
continue.

Sunday afternoon through Wednesday, hot conditions with little
to no rain chances can be expected as a mid/upper ridge builds
across the area. Triple digit heat will likely return to parts of
the area.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  93  70  88  71 /  20  40  30  40
Hobart OK         97  70  90  72 /  20  50  30  30
Wichita Falls TX  99  74  95  74 /  20  30  20  20
Gage OK           96  67  87  68 /  20  60  30  30
Ponca City OK     93  69  87  70 /  30  50  40  40
Durant OK         93  72  93  74 /  30  20  30  20

&&

.OUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

04/14/14



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