Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 121731 AAB
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
1131 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2017

.AVIATION...
12/18Z TAFs. VFR conditions to continue with mainly light westerly
winds through the period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 513 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2017/

AVIATION...
12Z TAFs - VFR conditions this TAF period. Winds will gradually
shift towards the west and southwest today and tonight.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 303 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Fire weather was the main focus for the rest of the week into the
weekend.

Winds will remain relatively light today and gradually shift towards
the southwest this afternoon and tonight. Another cool front is
expected to move across the region Wednesday with another day this
week of warm temperatures, especially ahead of the front. Winds will
shift from the southwest to the north with the frontal passage
Wednesday and be breezy. Models show a third cool front for the week
moving across the region Thursday night. With the fronts Wednesday
and Thursday night, temperatures are expected to be closer to normal
late this week before another warm up Saturday.

A bit of an upper pattern shift is expected by this weekend with a
cold front moving across the region Sunday. Gusty southwest winds
ahead of the front will lead to highs in the 60s and 70s again on
Saturday. Temperatures will then cool again late this weekend into
early next week but still remain near or a bit above average for
this time of year with highs in the 50s and 60s.

Models are showing that some precipitation may approach and/or move
across parts of the fa Sunday as an upper system moves across the
region this weekend. The ECMWF is the most aggressive with the light
precipitation occurring. Since moisture return could be somewhat
minimal across the area over the weekend, will leave any mention of
precipitation out of the forecast for now.

Fire Weather...
Above average temperatures and dry conditions, along with a few days
of breezy/gusty winds will combine to increase fire weather concerns
across at least parts of the area into the weekend. Elevated
conditions will be possible in parts of NW OK this afternoon.
Despite relatively light winds and slightly cooler temperatures
expected today, will issue a fire danger statement for elevated
conditions expected to develop where the lowest RH and warmest
conditions are expected in the fa this afternoon along with the
dry vegetation. Near critical conditions will be possible
Wednesday across portions of western OK and western north TX. A
Fire Weather Watch may be needed in parts of these areas for
Wednesday afternoon but there are a few questions, especially how
strong winds will be so will hold off on issuing a watch for now
and let the day shift re- evaluate with the next round of new
data. Near critical to critical conditions will then be possible
Saturday due to warm temperatures, low humidity, and the strongest
winds of the forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  52  34  67  34 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         55  30  69  33 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  56  33  69  34 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           60  32  64  30 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     51  31  64  30 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         54  35  71  36 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

11/04/11



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