Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 121959
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
259 PM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms continue to lift ENE
over central and northeastern OK this morning as an initial mid
level shortwave does the same. Further south, additional moist
convection has developed along and north of a stationary boundary
over northern TX. These storms may become strong to severe
especially south of the Red River where destabilization has
occured. Lastly, a MCV is slowly progressing eastward over the
extreme SE TX panhandle. Expect coverage to increase over the
southern FA thru the early evening hours with this feature.
Given the lack of instability and forcing further north we
decided to cancel the flood watch for all but southern OK where
higher rainfall rates are expected. An MCS may track over the Red
River late tonight, moving into SE OK. Most of the rainfall
should end late tonight, although some remnant activity will
remain east of I35.

The next round of moist convection is expected late Sunday through
Monday initially over western OK, and then across central and
eastern OK thru the day. This activity will be associated with a
mid level shortwave trough. Current projections suggest this
feature will likely be too progressive to result in much of a
flood threat. After a brief break Monday night, rain chances will
return Tue morning as yet another wave impacts the region.
Finally, by mid week a cold front may accompany a mid to upper
trough traversing the central CONUS and stall it somewhere near
our region. Rain chances may remain confined to northern OK by
this time, however, as the subtropical ridge starts to nudge into
the Southern Plains from the east.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  68  82  70  87 /  60  20  40  50
Hobart OK         69  85  71  91 /  60  20  60  30
Wichita Falls TX  72  88  73  95 /  70  20  60  30
Gage OK           65  82  68  89 /  30  20  50  20
Ponca City OK     67  83  68  85 /  30  20  20  30
Durant OK         74  86  72  90 /  90  40  40  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for OKZ027>032-037>048-
     050>052.

TX...None.
&&

$$

23/03



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