Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 050829
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
329 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING POTENTIAL MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS.

TODAY...GENERALLY THINK HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR.
SURFACE WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE. CAPPING SHOULD BE STRONGER
THAN YESTERDAY. KEPT LOW RAIN CHANCES AROUND 20 PERCENT THIS
MORNING IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND MUCH OF THE DAY EAST OF I-35.
SEVERE STORMS SEEM UNLIKELY...THOUGH A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. DID NOT STRAY FAR FROM
GUIDANCE HIGHS.

MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA AND SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THESE STORMS MAY
MOVE SLOWLY AND BRING HEAVY VERY RAINFALL TO THESE AREAS. A FEW
SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...BUT THINK
SEVERE WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST DUE TO WEAK SHEAR. STORMS WILL
BECOME LINEAR AND SLOWLY SAG SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
PROPAGATE DUE TO COLD POOL FORMATION. DELAYED RAIN CHANCES
SLIGHTLY DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA. NOT SURE EXACTLY WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR AND
HEAVY RAIN LOCATIONS WILL DEPEND ON COLD POOL/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FROM MONDAY NIGHT/S CONVECTION. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL SEEMS
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL
JET INCREASES. SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE LOW...BUT WILL
DEPEND ON MESOSCALE FEATURES. CLOUD COVER AND NEARBY RAIN WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

FOR NOW...DID NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS APPEARS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE OVER NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA WHERE RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 30 DAYS IS LEAST. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL AS SEVERAL INCHES OF
RAIN...POSSIBLY 3 TO 6 INCHES...IF NOT LOCALLY MORE...COULD
OCCUR DURING THIS TIME FRAME AND PERHAPS IN SHORT DURATION
ACROSS THE AREA.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DRIER AND HOTTER WEATHER ARE FORECAST
DUE TO MID LEVEL RIDGING.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  91  73  90  70 /  10   0  10  70
HOBART OK         94  74  92  69 /  10   0  20  80
WICHITA FALLS TX  94  75  94  73 /  10   0  10  60
GAGE OK           94  74  90  63 /  20   0  70  90
PONCA CITY OK     94  76  91  66 /  20  10  40  80
DURANT OK         90  72  91  73 /  20  10  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/17


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