Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 131138
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
638 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.AVIATION...
13/12Z TAFS...MVFR CIGS WILL BE SEEN AT MOST TERMINALS THROUGH
ABOUT 15-17Z...WITH VFR EXPECTED THEREAFTER. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHEAST LATE TODAY AND INCREASE IN SPEED AFTER THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. LOW CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TOWARD END OF
FORECAST PERIOD BUT WILL LEAVE FCST VFR FOR NOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CLEARING...AT LEAST PARTIALLY...EXPECTED THE REGION TODAY. THE
GREATEST AMOUNT OF CLEARING EXPECTED OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA. SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
MAY ACTUALLY SEE MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN TODAY. NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL ALLOW MOISTURE
TO WORK ITS WAY BACK OVER REGION AND ALLOW CLOUDS TO FILL BACK IN
ON SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS NEXT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE OVER SOUTHERN
PLAINS. MOST OF THE PRECIP EXPECTED NEAR THE FRONT AS IT
PROGRESSES SLOWLY SOUTH OVER OKLAHOMA TO THE RED RIVER VALLEY
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT. FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...AND WITH DEVELOPMENT OF NWLY FLOW...WILL BE A
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MAINLY OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA. CONFIDENCE NOT QUITE AS HIGH SO POPS
WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE. FAIR AMOUNT OF DISPARITY
IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS FOR FRIDAY AND NEXT WEEKEND...WITH ECM
CURRENTLY SHOWING PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN AND GFS A MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND DRY PATTERN. TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
BEFORE POPS ARE INTRODUCED AT END OF FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  68  57  80  66 /   0   0  10  20
HOBART OK         69  55  80  65 /   0   0  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  70  59  81  68 /  10   0  10  10
GAGE OK           68  53  82  63 /   0   0  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     67  53  79  65 /   0   0  10  20
DURANT OK         71  60  78  66 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/99/11


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