Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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811
FXUS64 KOUN 262101
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
401 PM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

.DISCUSSION...
A few light showers remain over central and eastern Oklahoma this
afternoon, associated with an upper-level wave that will move off
to the east this evening, bringing a brief end to the
precipitation.

Another weak wave will bring a slight chance for a few showers or
thunderstorms to northern Oklahoma Thursday afternoon and
evening.

The big event will arrive Friday afternoon or early evening as a
much stronger wave approaches the southern Plains while a
strengthening warm front lies across north Texas and Oklahoma.
Models are in fairly good agreement that the surface front will
be near I-44 by late Friday afternoon/Friday evening. They
disagree on whether the heaviest rainfall will be north or south
of the front.

There should be adequate instability and wind shear to support
severe storms in the warm sector, and SPC has currently placed
that region in an Enhanced Risk of severe storms. It is likely
that the region of severe weather risk will be significantly
refined in the next Day 2 outlook, as the models to seem to be in
good enough agreement on that part of the forecast.

Flooding will be possible wherever the heaviest rainfall occurs,
since plentiful moisture is forecast to be in place by late
Friday. If the NAM/ECMWF are the closest, this heavy rain will be
north of the front, roughly OKC to Tulsa. If the GFS is closer,
the heavy rain area will be approximately Ada to McAlester and
east from there...and will be much heavier. Both solutions have
some merit...as frontal forcing will be strongest in the north,
while warm-sector convection will likely train and cause areas of
particularly heavy rainfall. Given the uncertainties, we have
elected to hold off on a watch for now.

Once this storm system passes off to the northeast, we will once
again enter a cool/breezy northwest flow regime, with temperatures
well below the seasonal average for a couple of days. Then there
could be some more convection midweek, but this is well beyond
the range of high confidence in any particular solution.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  42  71  55  75 /  10  10  20  10
Hobart OK         42  78  53  76 /  10  10  10  10
Wichita Falls TX  44  80  59  83 /   0   0   0  20
Gage OK           41  75  45  70 /   0  20  20  10
Ponca City OK     39  68  50  72 /   0  10  50  10
Durant OK         45  73  60  80 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

25/23



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