Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 200541 AAB
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
1241 AM CDT Sat May 20 2017

.AVIATION...
20/06Z TAFs. MVFR conditions will be forecast through the night
across northern Oklahoma terminals with VFR elsewhere. Large MCS
will continue shifting south and east of terminals, but isolated
showers and a few storms will still be possible farther west and
north over Oklahoma. With primarily VFR conditions in these
showers and isolated nature of any storms, will not include in
first part of forecast. Gusty northerly winds through 21-23Z
before becoming light and variable.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 654 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017/

AVIATION...
Strong to severe thunderstorms will continue across
western north Texas and southern Oklahoma through
at least the evening hours. Thunderstorms will mainly
impact LAW and SPS with IFR conditions possible in and
around thunderstorms.

A cold front over western Oklahoma will bring a wind shift to all
TAF sites by 6Z. Mainly VFR conditions are expected after 6-9Z at
all sites.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 319 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Strong to severe thunderstorms continue to develop across mainly
western north Texas this afternoon. Other widely scattered
showers and a few storms are developing mainly north of a cold
front in northwest Oklahoma. Anvil debris and other light
showers are keeping parts of central and southern Oklahoma
relatively cool this afternoon.

Part of an outflow boundary that pushed well into north Texas has
been lifting slowly northward this afternoon. This boundary may
lift slowly into far southern Oklahoma later this afternoon,
however, western north Texas convection may keep this boundary
just south of the Red River.

Overall the risk of strong to severe storms will continue into
the evening, perhaps overnight, before a cold front sweeps across
southern Oklahoma by early Saturday morning.

Will continue the current Flood Watch through early Saturday
morning. It does appear that western north Texas and southern
Oklahoma will have the best opportunity for widespread showers
and thunderstorms through late this evening/early Saturday
morning.

Overall most of the weekend will be dry with below average
temperatures.

Another trough will approach the southern Plains around Monday of
next week. This will bring another opportunity for showers and
thunderstorms, especially across southern Oklahoma and western
north Texas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  49  76  54  76 /   0   0   0  30
Hobart OK         48  78  55  76 /   0   0  10  40
Wichita Falls TX  51  81  57  79 /   0   0   0  30
Gage OK           46  77  54  72 /   0  10  30  60
Ponca City OK     45  75  55  73 /   0   0  20  40
Durant OK         53  80  56  79 /  10   0   0  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for OKZ025>032-037>048-
     050>052.

TX...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for TXZ085-086-088>090.

&&

$$

26/11/11


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