Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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624
FXUS64 KOUN 171134
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
634 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...
17/12Z TAFS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
NARROW AREA OF IFR STRATUS JUST EAST OF KSPS AND KLAW...EXTENDING
UP THROUGH KOUN/KOKC EXPECTED TO LIFT AND SHIFT EAST THROUGH 14Z
AS LOWER LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO SOUTHWEST AFTER SUNRISE. PRIMARILY
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THEREAFTER. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED
PRIMARILY 15Z-23Z BEFORE BACKING AND DECREASING BY 01Z. WILL NOT
MENTION ANY TSRA IN TERMINALS DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE AND SOMEWHAT
POOR MODEL AGREEMENT IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TOWARD AND AFTER
00Z NEAR KSPS AND KOKC.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 449 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS
MORNING BUT MOST OF THE CWA EXPECTED TO STAY DRY TODAY. WRF MODEL
AGGRESSIVE WITH AFTERNOON/EVENING DEVELOPMENT MAINLY SOUTH AND
EAST OF I-44 ON EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE AS WEAK S/WV APPROACHES
REGION FROM WEST TEXAS. WILL LEAVE LOW POPS IN FOR THIS.
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.

FIRST OF SEVERAL FRONTS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY AND
INCREASE CHANCES FOR RAIN/STORMS. ANOTHER DECENT S/WV TROF PROGD
TO LIFT OUT OF WESTERN TROUGH TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...LIFTING
THIS FRONT BACK OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL INDUCE FAIRLY STRONG
AND DEEP LIFT AND HIGHER POPS WILL CONTINUE IN FORECAST. ANOTHER
FRONT FORECAST TO AFFECT THE REGION AROUND THURSDAY AND LIFT BACK
NORTH OVER AREA FRIDAY-SATURDAY. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AND LACK OF
SIG CAP...WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MODERATE TO HIGH RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH THE COMING WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. FLOODING RAINFALL WILL
BE THE PRIMARY AND MOST WIDESPREAD IMPACT BUT AS SHEAR INCREASES
WITH PASSING S/WV TROUGHS...BOUTS OF SEVERE WEATHER ALSO POSSIBLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  83  63  83  61 /  10  10  20  30
HOBART OK         82  57  83  59 /   0   0  10  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  86  63  85  64 /  10  20  20  40
GAGE OK           82  52  80  53 /   0   0  10  30
PONCA CITY OK     84  59  82  54 /   0   0  20  20
DURANT OK         83  66  82  65 /  30  40  40  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/99/11



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