Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 160446
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1146 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. WINDS
HAVE SHIFTED TO THE NORTH FROM KGAG/KWWR TO KPNC. EXPECT WINDS TO
SHIFT TO THE NORTH AT ALL TERMINALS BY 12Z TUES. WHAT REMAINS
UNCLEAR IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP IN THE POST
FRONTAL AIR. SO FAR...LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN VERY SLOW TO BUILD INTO
NORTHERN/WESTERN OKLAHOMA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
HOWEVER...GUIDANCE AND HIGH RES MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL BECOME MORE PREVALENT FROM 09Z TO 14Z AT NEARLY
ALL TERMINALS. WHILE A SPOTTY SHOWER OR TWO MAY AFFECT TAF SITES
FROM I-40 SOUTHWARD...GREATER CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL REMAIN
OVER WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...AND WILL MAINTAIN PROB30 GROUP OF ISOLD
TSRA. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH BY 18Z...WITH
LOW CIGS GRADUALLY CLEARING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 851 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

UPDATE...
HAVE MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE GRIDS FOR TONIGHT. BASED ON
LATEST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE HRRR WILL KEEP LOWER END CHANCE POPS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING
AND THEN A BIT HIGHER ACROSS SOUTHERN OK INTO NORTH TEXAS LATE
TONIGHT AS SFC FRONT WORKS SOUTH TOWARD THE RED RIVER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  64  82  66  87 /  30  20  10  20
HOBART OK         65  85  67  89 /  20  20  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  68  86  69  89 /  30  40  10  20
GAGE OK           59  83  64  90 /  20  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     61  79  63  86 /  20  10  20  30
DURANT OK         68  87  69  88 /  30  30  10  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

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