Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS64 KOUN 231747
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1147 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WINDY WEATHER EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.

CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT STRONG WINDS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE AREA. THINK PEAK GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH WILL OCCUR OVER
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE JUST
AFTER SUNSET.

AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 18Z TAFS IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE MAIN CONCERN IS STRONG WINDS THROUGH 01Z.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND BRING STRONG
NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. PEAK GUSTS 40-45 KT ARE LIKELY
ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THROUGH 00Z. KOKC
MAY HAVE GUSTS NEAR 40 KT 20-01Z...BUT WILL NOT ISSUE AN AIRPORT
WEATHER WARNING AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL CLOSELY MONITOR. WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE 00-03Z.

MVFR CONDITIONS NEAR KOKC...KOUN...AND KPNC ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
VFR BY 23Z...THOUGH EXACT TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN. HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE ALL SITES WILL BE VFR AFTER 01Z.

ISO-SCT -SHRA WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
KEPT VCSH MENTION NEAR KOKC AND KOUN AS WELL AS TEMPO AT KPNC TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 556 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

AVIATION...
23/12Z...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL RAISE/CLEAR
CIGS ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TERMINALS IN THE FIRST
FEW HOURS OF FORECAST GIVEN SATELLITE AND OBSERVATION
TRENDS...ALTHOUGH MODEL FORECASTS BEG TO DIFFER. IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED PREFRONTAL AS WINDS VEER AND INCREASE. POST FRONTAL
CLOUDS EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA WITH
PRIMARILY VFR-MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON WITH MVFR
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG FROM THE
NORTHWEST FOLLOWING FROPA UNTIL THIS EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEVERAL SHORT-TERM ISSUES...FIRST OF WHICH WILL BE AREAS OF DENSE
FOG ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS. VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN DOWN IN THE 1/4-1/2 MILE RANGE MUCH
OF THE NIGHT FROM AROUND WICHITA FALLS AND LAWTON OVER TOWARD
DUNCAN AND CHICKASHA. ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY EARLIER THIS
MORNING BASED ON OBS AND SHORT-TERM MODEL OUTPUT. THIS ADVISORY
WAS TRIMMED DOWN AND LOOKING AT TRENDS OF OBS...ADVISORY MAY NEED
TO BE CANCELLED EARLY. SECONDLY...WE EXPECT FAIRLY STRONG WINDS
LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH VERY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT PROGD BY ALL MODELS AS SURFACE CYCLONE INTENSIFIES AHEAD
OF INCOMING UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT SURGES SOUTH OVER REGION.
WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. TIGHT GRADIENT
AND ZONE OF STRONGER CAA PROGD TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF
CWA BY 00Z SO THINKING IS THAT WINDS WILL SUBSIDE FAIRLY QUICKLY
THIS EVENING.

NUMEROUS FRONTAL PASSAGES THROUGH THE WEEK...BUT MOST WILL YIELD
LITTLE CHANGE TO DAY-TO-DAY TEMPERATURES. MEDIUM RANGE GFS AND ECM
CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN SENSIBLE WEATHER
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. ECM FORECASTING MORE PROGRESSIVE AND
HIGHER AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN PLAINS
LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS HELPS TO DRIVE STRONGER COLD FRONT INTO
REGION LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE
CANADIAN PROGS. NEWEST ROUND OF INITIALIZATIONS YIELD GRIDDED
FORECAST NOT FAR FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...CLOSER TO THE CONSENSUS
OF ECM AND GEM WITH A COOLER AND DRY FRIDAY/SATURDAY.

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ005>008-011>013-
     017>020-023>030-038>041-044>046-050.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ004-009-010-
     014>016-021-022-033>037.

TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ086-089-090.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ083>085-087-088.

&&

$$

84/17/17



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.