Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 250506
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1206 AM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017

.DISCUSSION...
06Z TAFs.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected in general, although there will be a
chance of scattered thunderstorms after around 00Z across northern
Oklahoma. Until then, only mid-high level ceilings are expected. A
front will move into the area on Wednesday bringing a wind shift
to at least northern and central Oklahoma TAF sites.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued by National Weather Service TULSA OK/


DISCUSSION...
A warmer and breezier overnight will be on tap for western north
Texas and the western two thirds of Oklahoma, as the pressure
gradient remains tight ahead of a surface low to the west. A
dryline will move into portions of western Oklahoma and western
north Texas during the early part of the day tomorrow, with winds
shifting to the west and southwest and much warmer temperatures
found behind it. Highs at both OKC and Wichita Falls will likely
near record levels but should fall just short. Thunderstorm
potential along the dryline during the afternoon hours should be
suppressed by a strong cap aloft, with convection more likely on
the trailing cold front and with the upper low during the
overnight hours and into Wednesday morning. Much cooler air will
arrive with the cold front for Wednesday, although it will be
fairly short-lived.

South winds make a quick return on Thursday and warmer
temperatures along with them, especially to parts of western north
Texas. At least low thunderstorm potential will increase from the
north late Thursday and into Thursday night, as a surface low
moves into the Texas South Plains, dragging a front through the
area. Better shower and thunderstorm potential will likely arrive
Friday night and into Saturday, as the front moves back northward
as a warm front and a stronger upper level storm system moves into
the Plains states. Uncertainty remains when it pertains to the
eventual location of the warm front and any resultant severe
weather potential. Current data would suggest that the severe
potential may be highest later than previously advertised, and
possibly farther south and east. Heavy rain and flooding potential
also appears to be high during this time frame, especially
considering antecedent conditions in portions of the area.

The weekend will finish up and the next work week will begin on a
dry note.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  52  56  41  69 /  30  30  20  20
Hobart OK         51  59  41  73 /  10  30   0  10
Wichita Falls TX  60  64  45  79 /  10  10  10  10
Gage OK           43  60  40  69 /  50  50   0  20
Ponca City OK     50  55  38  65 /  50  40  20  20
Durant OK         63  69  45  72 /  20  60  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/01



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