Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 302326
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
626 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
REFER TO THE 00Z AVIATION FORECAST BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...
TRICKY AVIATION FORECAST THIS PERIOD...WITH ONGOING SHOWERS AND
STORMS FROM NORTHERN THROUGH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...AND WIDESPREAD
INTERMITTENT MVFR/IFR CIGS. EXPECT A FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
THROUGH ALL TERMINALS...RESULTING IN A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT BY
05Z. LARGE AREA OF SHRA WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT...WITH
AT LEAST ONE COMPLEX OF TSRA FROM CENTRAL THROUGH EAST/SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA FROM 00Z THROUGH AROUND 08Z THURS. HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
THE STRONGER STORMS MAY RESULT IN VSBYS REDUCED TO A MILE OR
LESS...ESPECIALLY FROM KOKC/KOUN SOUTHEASTWARD. WHILE SHRA/TSRA
SHOULD EVENTUALLY MOVE EAST OF TERMINALS BY 06Z...INTERMITTENT
MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL LIKELY LINGER AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST
12Z THURS. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS IS THEN FORECAST BY 18Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 547 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

UPDATE...
ADJUSTED RAIN CHANCES THIS EVENING ACROSS THE AREA.

DISCUSSION...
BAND OF HEAVY RAIN WILL AFFECT CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND
THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO AREA THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING.

LATEST RADAR INDICATED A BAND OF HEAVY RAIN FROM HINTON TO
KINGFISHER TO GUTHRIE SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH ALONG A FRONT. THIS
BAND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING...BRINGING
1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL. THIS BAND MAY CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN
HINTING AT THIS POTENTIAL.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND WILL NOT ALTER AT
THIS TIME.

APPEARS THAT THE CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT IN
SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS MAY BE DECREASING
DUE TO PERHAPS CAPPING AND SOME MID/UPPER LEVEL DRYING/SUBSIDENCE
DEPICTED IN THE LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING IN THESE AREAS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAIN LOW.

MOST...IF NOT ALL...RAIN HAS ENDED IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
PERHAPS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...ESPECIALLY WEST OF AN ALVA
TO WEATHERFORD TO ALTUS TO CROWELL LINE.

WILL CONTINUE TO UPDATE THIS EVENING AS NECESSARY.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY PRECIPITATION BAND CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BUT ARE SEEING REDEVELOPMENT BEGINNING ACROSS
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. REDEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THIS
EVENING AS SURFACE FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES.
COORDINATED WITH NESDIS AND WE AGREED THAT THERE ARE SOME SIGNALS
OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT. HAVE EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH TO INCLUDE MURRAY... JOHNSTON... COAL AND ATOKA COUNTIES
WHERE THERE IS THE BEST SIGNAL OF THE QPF AXIS IS LOCATED. ON THE
OTHER SIDE... HAVE CANCELLED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA WHERE HEAVY RAINFALL APPEARS UNLIKELY WITH THE EASTWARD
MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION WILL PERSIST
SOUTHEAST TOMORROW BEFORE THIS SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST. PRECIP
CHANCES LOOK LOW AFTER TOMORROW AND TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
CLIMB BACK TO CLOSE TO CLIMO VALUES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  66  78  64  84 /  90  30   0   0
HOBART OK         64  79  63  85 /  40  10   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  68  79  66  86 /  40  20  10   0
GAGE OK           60  79  61  85 /  20   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     63  80  61  84 /  70  20   0   0
DURANT OK         67  76  63  82 /  80  50  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR OKZ018>020-
     024>032-040>043-047-048.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR OKZ012-013.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

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