000
FXUS64 KOUN 041610
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1010 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
COMPLEX FORECAST CONTINUES. FREEZING LINE CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH
AND NOW EXTENDS ALONG AN ADA-PAULS VALLEY-VERNON LINE. MUCH OF THE
FIRST ROUND OF PRECIP IS LIQUID ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN ON THE NORTH EDGE IN HUGHES/SEMINOLE/
POTTAWATOMIE COUNTIES. ANOTHER BAND OF PRIMARILY SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN HAS DEVELOPED FROM NEAR ERICK TO CLINTON AND
WATONGA. AND LIGHT ECHOES HAVE BEGUN TO EXPAND IN THE LAWTON/
DUNCAN/ ALTUS/ VERNON/ QUANAH AREAS SPREADING NORTHEAST WITH
INCREASING REPORTS OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WITH THESE LIGHT
ECHOES. ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS MAY ORIGINALLY BE LIGHT... THERE STILL
MAY BE SOME DECENT IMPACTS WITH ICING ON ROADWAYS. HIGH-
RESOLUTION MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND RAP HAVE NOT PICKED UP ON
THIS ENHANCEMENT FROM SOUTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA VERY
WELL SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON HOW THEY HANDLE THE EVOLUTION. WILL
GO MORE WITH RADAR TRENDS. STILL THINK THIS IS MAINLY AN ADVISORY
EVENT SO WILL KEEP HEADLINES AS THEY ARE. EVEN IN NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA WHERE PRECIPITATION IS LIGHTER... VERY SLICK AND
DANGEROUS ROADS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS THAT AREA THANKS TO THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE.

HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS AND WEATHER GRIDS BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS... BUT OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS INTACT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 514 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS... CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE MOST AREAS TODAY.
RAIN WILL CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN... SLEET... AND SNOW TODAY
ACROSS THE AREA. BLOWING SNOW COULD ALSO OCCUR IN SOME AREAS WHICH
WOULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES. PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. CEILINGS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AT SOME SITES LATER TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
VISIBILITIES CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO WILL
CANCEL THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE FA EARLY THIS MORNING.
COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION
TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY CONTINUING TO FALL THROUGHOUT THE
DAY IN MANY PLACES. MEANWHILE... UPPER WAVE WILL APPROACH AND
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE FROM RAIN TO
FREEZING RAIN... SLEET AND EVENTUALLY JUST SNOW AS SFC TEMPS DROP
BELOW FREEZING AND THE COLD AIRMASS DEEPENS. SOME BANDING COULD BE
POSSIBLE WITH FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING SO IN SHORT DISTANCES SOME
LOCATIONS COULD RECEIVE HEAVIER AMOUNTS THAN OTHERS AND OTHER
LOCATIONS MAY RECEIVE LOWER AMOUNTS... BUT GENERALLY ONE TO THREE
INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ICE
ACCUMULATIONS FROM THE FREEZING RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SE HALF OF THE FA... WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED IN
PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ICE ACCUMULATIONS
OF JUST A GLAZE TO UNDER TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE.
IF THE TRANSITION FROM FREEZING RAIN TO SLEET AND SNOW IS SLOWER
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST THEN HIGHER ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT WINTER WX ADVISORY
CONFIGURATION BUT ADJUSTMENTS MAY NEED TO BE MADE LATER THIS
MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION WILL END TONIGHT BUT ROADS WILL LIKELY
STILL BE SLICK IN SOME AREAS IN THE MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND REACHING SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
MODELS SHOW SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS MOVING NEAR/ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THIS TIME BUT THESE SYSTEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE FA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  30  21  37  21 /  80  50  10  10
HOBART OK         30  18  36  20 /  90  40  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  37  21  36  19 /  90  60  10  10
GAGE OK           24  11  38  20 /  60  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     26  16  35  21 /  70  30  10  10
DURANT OK         44  23  37  21 / 100  90  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR OKZ019-
     020-022>048-050>052.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     OKZ004>018-021.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
     TXZ083>090.

&&

$$