Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
FXUS64 KOUN 280403 AAA
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
1103 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016
removed thunder mention tonight. added fog mention to locations
mainly east of a medford to watonga to lawton to wichita falls
no more storms are expected tonight as the main lifting
feature with the mid/upper disturbance has passed northeast
and now is in eastern kansas.
fog formation may be a big concern later tonight where rainfall
occurred earlier this evening. would not be surprised if some of
this fog become locally dense.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 629 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016/
Severe thunderstorms remain possible mainly near and east of I-35
through 10 PM this evening.
A broken line of strong to severe thunderstorms from Blackwell to
Oklahoma City to Pauls Valley will continue to move east and
northeast over the next few hours. Large hail up to golf ball size
is the main hazard...though damaging winds up to 60 mph and heavy
rainfall which could cause localized flooding are possible as
well. The tornado potential remain very very low due to the lack
of sufficient low level shear...generally 15 KT or less.
The aviation discussion for the 00z tafs is below.
Overall...think VFR conditions will occur.
Isolated to numerous thunderstorms will affect KOKC...KOUN...and
KPNC through 02z bringing strong wind gusts...brief mvfr or lower
conditions...and possibly some hail.
Patches of fog with MVFR or lower conditions may form near
KOKC...KOUN...and KPNC 06-16z. Confidence of occurrence remains
fairly low. However...added MVFR conditions at these sites during
this time frame.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 255 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016/
Scattered thunderstorms...some possibly severe...expected late
this afternoon and early evening. Greatest chance for severe
reports expected over northwest Oklahoma where wind potential will
exist with storms coming out of panhandle (associated with mid
level front) and over north-central Oklahoma ahead of diffuse
frontal boundary/dryline. Northern portions of Oklahoma will be
influenced less by inversion/subsidence from remnant Texas MCS.
storms near and south of I-40 are expected to be more isolated in
Pops will continue into the evening and overnight hours as mid
level trough progresses over the region. Thunderstorm chances will
be mainly confined to far southern/southeast portions of CWA
Saturday. Most models consistent in showing signal for weak mid
level wave passing over Southern Rockies helping to induce
scattered to numerous showers and storms late Sunday into Monday.
Next upper trough approaches next week with moist airmass in place
to support potential for another wet week. Flow will not be overly
strong based on longer term models with main concern through the
week being threat of flooding rains.