Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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594
FXUS64 KOUN 160446
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1046 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Aviation discussion for the 06 UTC TAFs is below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected.

Northerly surface winds will slowly decrease, especially after
20 UTC Tuesday. Surface winds, fairly light, will shift to the
south/southeast across western Oklahoma 00-06 UTC Wednesday.

MBS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 922 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2018/

UPDATE...
Expanded wind chill advisory southward and updated hourly
temperatures, dew points, and winds through 15Z.

DISCUSSION...
Temperatures have cooled quicker than the previous forecast with
single digits and wind chills below -5 F already near the
Kansas/Oklahoma border.

Continued cold air advection and clearing skies from north will
result in rather cold night. Hourly temperatures were updated
based on current observations and short-term models, which
resulted in colder temperatures areawide. Based on the updated
temperatures and winds, the wind chill advisory was expanded
southward.

Otherwise, the intensity of radar echos have shown a downward
trend across southeast Oklahoma in the last hour. Light freezing
rain and sleet was reported near Durant at about 7:30 PM. Some new
echoes are beginning to develop across north Texas and may shift
into far southeast Oklahoma.

With colder and drier air advecting southward, expect the primary
types to be sleet and/or snow (dependent on whether there are
supercooled water droplets or ice crystals present) and not
freezing rain; however, with such dry low-levels, precipitation
will struggle to reach the surface (cloud bases are quite high and
dew point depressions are large). Therefore, still expecting the
greatest impacts to stay south of the Oklahoma/Texas border at
this time.

Mahale

PREV DISCUSSION...
/issued 402 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Although most precipitation tonight will likely remain south of
our area, we do look to be on the northern edge of the
precipitation that is expected to develop tonight, and will
maintain some 20-30 POPs tonight. By the time precipitation
develops, temperatures will likely be cool enough for a mixed
winter bag of precipitation types (freezing rain, sleet, snow)
transitioning primarily to snow, although amounts are expected to
be light. Once this precipitation area pulls away from the
forecast area, the forecast is dry until Saturday night as another
storm system approaches. There may be some precipitation
developing across the region as early as Friday, but initially
looks to remain southeast and east of the area.

So the main issue is cold. The forecast continues with minimum
wind chill values both Tuesday and Wednesday mornings between -10
and +10. The northern half of the area should see minimum wind
chills values below -5 and -10 overnight and Tuesday morning so
the wind chill advisory looks good in this area.

Cool temperatures will continue through mid-week with
temperatures becoming quite warm by Saturday.

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Wind Chill Advisory until 10 AM CST Tuesday for OKZ004>032-034-
     035-038>043.

TX...None.
&&

$$

10/17



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