000
FXUS64 KOUN 160909
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
409 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

.DISCUSSION...
MID-LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST TODAY. WILL KEEP HIGHEST
POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FA THROUGH THIS MORNING AS
STRONGER FLOW ON WESTERN SIDE OF LOW MOVES ACROSS SOMEWHAT BETTER
MOISTURE IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA NORTH TEXAS.

RATHER LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL SUPPORT LOW
CLOUDS AND SOME FOG...ESPECIALLY FAR WEST WHERE MID LEVEL
CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY SHOULD LIMIT
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. HOWEVER...THE EC MODEL INDICATES A LEAD
WAVE WILL APPROACH THE TX PANHANDLE BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING AND A STORM OR TWO MAY FORM IN FAR WESTERN OK. FOR NOW
WILL LEAVE CHANCES RATHER SLIM.

SEVERE STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MAINLY
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A STRONG CAP MAY
AGAIN LIMIT STORM DEVELOPING SATURDAY BUT SHOULD SEE A FEW STORMS
ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND MAYBE NORTH TEXAS.

BETTER LIFT AND HEIGHT FALLS SUNDAY SHOULD BRING A BETTER
OPPORTUNITY FOR SEVERE STORMS...BUT TIMING OF SHORTWAVE
MAY FAVOR MORE STORMS NORTH AND EAST OF THE FA.

MONDAY MAY BRING THE BEST CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT STORMS IN
OKLAHOMA...AS A FRONT MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS PART OF THE STATE ALONG
WITH ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE ACROSS ROUGHLY
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE STORMS
SHOULD LINGER OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  79  65  83  68 /  20  10  10  10
HOBART OK         84  65  88  66 /  10  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  84  67  91  68 /  20  10  10  10
GAGE OK           85  63  89  65 /  10  10  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     77  64  83  69 /  20  10  10  10
DURANT OK         80  67  82  68 /  60  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11/06