Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 221139 AAA
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
639 AM CDT Mon May 22 2017

.AVIATION...
22/12Z TAFs. Primarily VFR conditions expected with scattered to
numerous showers and isolated tsra moving from west to east
through 18Z. Additional development appears most likely late
today, toward and after 00Z, across West Texas which may impact
KSPS this evening. Cold front will progress over terminals tonight
with gusty north winds and MVFR stratcu mainly north and west
Oklahoma terminals to end forecast period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 320 AM CDT Mon May 22 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Potent s/wv will move over central/southern Rockies today ahead of
main trough, allowing the increase in showers and storms across the
region. Overall instability will be lacking over most areas, with
combination of instability and shear sufficient for strong and
perhaps severe storms over far western Oklahoma and mainly western
north Texas late today and this evening. Current development of
elevated showers and storms across eastern High Plains of NM and
panhandles expected to continue an eastward progression through the
day. Will not rain all day at any one spot, but chances are at least
moderate for rain to impact western half of CWA today. Most storms
that occur expected to stay below severe levels and may be brief as
well. If enough insolation can be realized late today over western
Texas and far southwest portions of CWA, we could see a few severe
storms with winds/hail the concerns. Details contained in latest
day1 outlook from SPC.

In the wake of mentioned trough, a cold front will make its way over
the region tonight and early Tuesday. In wake of the front, cold
upper trough will progress over the Southern Plains which may allow
development of showers and isolated storms through Tuesday afternoon
mainly over central and southeast portions of Oklahoma, with severe
storms unlikely.

Run of cooler than average temperatures forecast to come to an end
by Thursday and Friday as another trough develops to our west. This
will induce strong moisture return with models still consistent on
developing dryline which will flirt with mainly southwest portions
of Oklahoma and western north Texas. West of this dryline,
temperatures well into the 90s appear likely. Exact location and
timing of this dryline and potential frontal intrusions following
passing s/wvs through mentioned trough keeps confidence somewhat low
for next weekend and associated severe weather potential.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  71  55  68  48 /  60  40  30   0
Hobart OK         70  53  69  47 /  60  40  30  10
Wichita Falls TX  73  58  70  51 /  40  50  40   0
Gage OK           66  51  68  44 /  60  40  10   0
Ponca City OK     73  52  68  47 /  40  30  30  10
Durant OK         73  59  70  51 /  20  40  40  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

26/11/11


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