Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 172328
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
628 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.AVIATION...
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO FOR TSRA AT KSPS...WITH VCTS OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS MAY RESULT IN BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO VSBYS
THROUGH 02Z. WIND FORECAST IS A BIT TRICKY AS MODELS STRUGGLE WITH
A WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA DURING THE DAY ON THURS.
REGARDLESS...WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE ALL THAT STRONG...AND
IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL DESPITE SLIGHT DIRECTIONAL CHANGES.
ISOLATED TSRA MAY AFFECT TERMINALS FROM CENTRAL/SOUTHERN OK
SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH TEXAS FROM 18Z TO 00Z THURS...BUT OPTED TO
REFRAIN FROM MENTIONING AS CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER LOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE TRYING TO SLIP INTO OUR TX
ZONES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH
THE EVENING. AT LEAST LOW CHCS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THIS AREA
THROUGH TOMORROW AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDS THE RIDGE
NEAR THE RED RIVER. TEMPS WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE RAIN CHCS INCREASE LATE FRI AND EARLY
SATURDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF ODILE APPROACH THE WESTERN ZONES.

IN THE EXTENDED...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
ODILE...CURRENTLY ACROSS MEXICO AND MOVING INTO THE U.S.
SOUTHWEST...BRINGING IN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS FOR THIS WEEKEND. THE SHORTWAVE...COUPLED WITH SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE...WILL RESULT IN INCREASING TSRA POPS FOR OUR
SATURDAY/SUNDAY PERIODS. LATEST QPF GUIDANCE SUGGEST HIGH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN ZONES. A SOMEWHAT WEAK COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY, BRIEFLY BRINGING IN JUST
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
RIDGING WILL BEGIN BUILDING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  71  90  69  88 /  10  30  10  10
HOBART OK         71  91  69  88 /  10  30  10  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  72  91  70  89 /  20  30  20  20
GAGE OK           64  90  66  87 /   0  10  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     70  89  69  89 /  10  20  10  10
DURANT OK         72  89  69  88 /  20  30  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

02/84


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