Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 010533
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1133 PM CST Wed Nov 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...
06z TAFs.

&&

.AVIATION...
Light winds and clear skies will prevail overnight. A weak surface
boundary will slide into northwest Oklahoma. This boundary will
sit very close to KGAG and KWWR for a while Thursday so wind
direction will depend on where this sets up, although wind speeds
will be not be too strong regardless. Eventually this boundary is
expected to move southeast ensuring the wind shift at KGAG and
KWWR and bringing the wind shift into KPNC, KCSM and KHBR late
Thursday afternoon or early evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 540 PM CST Wed Nov 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAFs.

AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail. Although KCSM is reporting 3sm hz, we
think this is most likely a sensor issue and not a prevailing
weather conditions, so will continue with unrestricted
visibilities there. Winds will become light this evening, then
increase somewhat from the south tomorrow. The exception will be
up near KGAG and KWWR where a weak boundary will move in bringing
east/northeast winds there.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 245 PM CST Wed Nov 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...
The breezy winds this afternoon will become light this evening. A
weak boundary is also expected to move into portions of the FA and
then stall later tonight into Thursday. With the light winds and
clear skies, overnight lows are expected to drop to or below
freezing across the majority of the area tonight.

The primary focus for this forecast was on the potential for
precipitation Friday into early next week. Models continue to show
an upper trough digging across the western U.S. over the next couple
of days. Eventually, a portion of this trough will become a cut-off
low over Baja with the rest of the trough advancing east across the
central U.S. this weekend. This trough will bring a chance for
precipitation to parts of the area Friday through Saturday night.
There may be a brief lull in precipitation before chances return
Sunday night into early next week when the previously mentioned cut-
off low finally lifts NE across the Southern Plains. Most of the
precipitation is expected to fall as a cold rain. However, even
though there is still some uncertainty, some winter precipitation
may affect far NW OK Friday night. Models continue to trend with a
warmer solution. If this continues, the precipitation will be just
rain for the entire area. The current forecast still has
temperatures right around freezing in NW OK so there is still a
mention of some light winter precipitation in the forecast. Even if
the winter precip does occur, right now, amounts look light enough
that there will be very little impact to the area.

Models show that another upper trough will affect the region towards
the middle to late next week. Models currently showing this system
bringing some colder air to the region and possibly a chance at some
precipitation. There continue to be differences between models on
whether there will be any precipitation in the FA so this portion of
the forecast will likely change over the next few days as hopefully
models come into better agreement on this system.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  30  59  34  56 /   0   0   0  10
Hobart OK         29  57  31  54 /   0   0   0  30
Wichita Falls TX  32  62  38  57 /   0   0   0  30
Gage OK           22  52  24  50 /   0   0   0  20
Ponca City OK     26  55  29  54 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         36  62  40  58 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$


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