Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 250455
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1155 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE 15/06Z TAF DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH
PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE.

STRATUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AFTER 09Z TONIGHT. EXPECT MOST STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT TO BE BETWEEN 3000 TO 6000 FT...SO EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT MOST LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...PERIODS OF MVFR
COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH STRATUS AS LOW AS 2000 FT. THIS APPEARS
MOST LIKELY AT KLAW. ISOLATED SHOWERS ALSO MAY AFFECT KLAW AND
KSPS BETWEEN 15-18Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN
TAFS.

MAHALE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 904 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015/

UPDATE...
ADJUSTED SKY AND TEMP GRIDS SLIGHTLY. SEE DISCUSSION BELOW.

DISCUSSION...
AN AREA OF STRATUS AROUND 6K FT WILL SHIFT SSE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS STRATUS WILL ONLY IMPACT THE EXTREME SE
DURING THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES. INCREASED SKY
GRIDS BEFORE 12Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THE PREVIOUS. LIGHT EASTERLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING...WITH A SFC
HIGH OVER SW MO. DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP UNDER THIS HIGH
NEAR NE OK. BELIEVE THE GFS IS TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH HE DRYING...BUT
UPPER 40 DEWPOINTS APPEAR REASONABLE THERE BY SUNRISE.
THEREFORE...DECIDED TO NUDGE TEMPS DOWN 1-2 DEGREES CLOSER TO
CONSENSUS MOS GUIDANCE FOR MOST LOCATIONS N OF I40 AND E OF I35.
ALL UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  62  88  65  91 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         66  91  69  95 /  10  10   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  70  93  70  95 /  10  20   0   0
GAGE OK           62  90  67  95 /  10  10   0  10
PONCA CITY OK     57  86  62  90 /   0   0  10   0
DURANT OK         69  91  66  94 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

03/10/10



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