Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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983
FXUS64 KOUN 210512
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1212 AM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017

.DISCUSSION...
06Z TAFs.

&&

.AVIATION...
The showers and thunderstorms have dissipated across the area this
evening, and should not be an issue the rest of the night. There
is a chance for some stratus development with MVFR ceilings, but
the probability is low enough that MVFR ceilings will not be
included in these TAFs at the moment, but will continue to watch
satellite trends for development. The most likely TAF site would
be KPNC.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 854 PM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017/

UPDATE...
Increased storms chances through the night near stalled frontal
boundary as modest low level jet increases. Still quite unstable
so cannot rule out a brief severe storm as activity builds
northward.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 600 PM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017/

DISCUSSION...
The 00Z aviation discussion follows....

AVIATION...
Thunderstorms have formed late this afternoon over parts of
central and northern Texas. It is possible, but so far unlikely,
that storms will affect KSPS between 00Z and about 03Z. Later, the
nocturnal low-level jet, plus mid-level moisture, plus weak
isentropic lift, could generate a few showers or thunderstorms
after 06Z and before about 18Z over roughly the western 2/3 of
Oklahoma and adjacent parts of Texas. Again, chances are low, but
certainly not zero.

Winds will decrease with sunset, then rapidly increase again
tomorrow within an hour or two after sunrise. There could be a
brief period of significant low-level wind shear near KLTS-KJWG-
KPNC, but model indications are not as strong as the previous
forecast.

Finally, low clouds may form over eastern
Texas and eastern Oklahoma early Thursday. Forecast wind
trajectories and current moisture levels over Texas, however,
suggest that ceilings should remain well east/southeast of our TAF
sites.

CmS

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 350 PM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017/

DISCUSSION...
A surface front that stalled over western Oklahoma today will
retreat/weaken overnight, leaving all of Oklahoma (at least east
of the Panhandle) and north Texas in the warmer airmass for
tomorrow and Friday. The heat and humidity will allow for at least
isolated thunderstorms each day, depending on cap strength.

For the remainder of this afternoon and early this evening, the
greatest chance for thunderstorms will be over north-central
Oklahoma...and in our Texas counties + adjacent parts of southwest
Oklahoma. The cap will be weakest in these locations, and weak
low-level convergence combined with high temperatures may be
enough to generate a few storms despite the cap. If storms do
develop, strong winds would be the primary threat. Forecast
upper-air soundings suggest a hail threat, although the high
freezing level would help reduce that threat somewhat.

A strand of mid-level moisture along the nocturnal low-level jet,
amid weak isentropic lift, may generate a few showers and
thunderstorms over parts of western/central Oklahoma (and adjacent
parts of north Texas) Thursday morning. Then, the afternoon
situation resembles today`s, with a continuing chance of isolated
thunderstorms.

The hot weather, breezy conditions, and small area of relatively
low humidities will cause "Elevated" fire danger conditions for
the next several afternoons across far northwest Oklahoma.

By Friday, mid-level temperatures should be warm enough to
preclude any significant chance of storms, but the weekend will
see the approach of a large-scale trough. This will bring
increasing chances for rain and thunderstorms. A slight chance
will begin Saturday in the far northwest, then chances will
increase and spread east Sunday into Monday.

For Tuesday onward, there is significant model spread, so we have
rain chances in the forecast, but with substantial uncertainty.

This progression of weather systems will result in a gradual
decrease in afternoon temperatures through the period.

CmS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  75  91  71  89 /  20  20  10  10
Hobart OK         72  94  72  91 /  10  20  20   0
Wichita Falls TX  76  95  73  92 /  20  20  10   0
Gage OK           63  95  71  90 /   0  10  10   0
Ponca City OK     75  92  73  91 /  10  20  10   0
Durant OK         75  91  72  91 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$



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