Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS64 KOUN 311720
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1220 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATE TO PRECIP/WX...

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS CENTRAL OK CONTINUES
TO WEAKEN... BUT REMAIN PERSISTENT. MUCH... IF NOT ALL OF THIS
ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TIED TO MODEST LOW LEVEL ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
A WEAK 850MB TROUGH AND VARIOUS WEAKENING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
ASSOCIATED WITH EARLIER CONVECTION. FOR THIS AFTN... PRIMARY FOCUS
IS ON CONTINUOUS ACTIVITY ACROSS THE TX PH... AS NEW UPDRAFTS HAVE
STARTED TO DEVELOP ON OR JUST WEST OF THE OK/TXPH BORDER.
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT EXACT FORCING FOR ASCENT... BUT IT APPEARS
TIED TO SFC/LL CONVERGENCE. LATEST HRRR RUN HAS MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY DISSIPATING THROUGH EARLY/MID AFTN AS UPPER LVL SUPPORT
FROM THE WEAK H500 SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE LARGER RIDGE EXITS
TO THE EAST. INITIAL STORMS IN WRN OK WILL RESIDE IN A REGION OF
MODEST INSTABILITY... SUPPORTIVE OF GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. NOT EXPECTING ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THIS
AFTN.

JTK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 614 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS IS BELOW.

AVIATION...
OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

SOME MVFR...PERHAPS IFR...CONDITIONS MAY AFFECT KWWR AND KGAG
THROUGH 16Z.

ISO-SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL BE OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ONLY INCLUDED VCTS AND VCSH NEAR KOKC AND KOUN THROUGH 16-17Z
WHERE CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE IS HIGHER. PINPOINTING WHERE AND
WHEN SHRA/TSRA OCCUR REMAINS VERY TRICKY AND CHALLENGING...SO DID
NOT MENTION IN MANY TAFS AS COVERAGE SHOULD BE LOW. BRIEF MVFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS AND VARIABLE GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
SHRA/TSRA.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CONCERN IS DETERMINING RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

OVERALL...LOWERED RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BASED
ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. THE COMBINATION OF WEAK SHEAR AND WEAK
FORCING AS WELL AS DECENT CAPPING SHOULD KEEP RAIN CHANCES ON THE
LOW SIDE IN MOST LOCATIONS.

TODAY WILL NOT BE AS HOT IN MANY LOCATIONS WITH MORE CLOUD
COVER...BUT WILL BE HUMID WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S. KEPT 20 PERCENT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. ITS
QUITE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT WHERE AND WHEN STORMS WILL OCCUR
TODAY. LATEST HRRR RUNS SUGGEST A FEW STORMS WILL BE NEAR I-40
THIS MORNING AND MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS
THIS AFTERNOON. COVERAGE SHOULD BE SPARSE WITHOUT A SIGNIFICANT
TRIGGER FOR LIFT. STORMS WILL BE PULSE AND GENERALLY SHORT LIVED IN
NATURE...BUT COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER AN INCH IN
A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW TODAY.
INCREASED HIGHS TODAY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE TO LOW
COVERAGE OF STORMS.

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...A FEW STORMS MAY LINGER MAINLY
OVER FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND FAR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...WHICH MAY
PRODUCE SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS
VERY LOW. OTHERWISE...MAINLY RAINFREE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR. HIGHS
ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE IN
MANY AREAS EXCEPT POSSIBLY FAR SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS
WHERE MORE SUN IS FORECAST.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GENERALLY TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT IS
FORECAST. LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN AND STORMS MAY OCCUR MAINLY OVER
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...BUT CONFIDENCE OF RAIN IS DECREASING AS
LATEST MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING STRONGER WITH MID/UPPER RIDGING
AND CAPPING OVER THE AREA. THIS WOULD YIELD HIGHER TEMPERATURES
AS WELL. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF HEAT ADVISORIES WERE NECESSARY
SOMETIME DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  71  91  71  91 /  10  10  20  10
HOBART OK         71  89  70  93 /  30  30  20  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  74  96  73  95 /  20  20  20  10
GAGE OK           68  86  67  92 /  20  20  30  10
PONCA CITY OK     71  91  72  92 /  10  10  20  10
DURANT OK         73  97  73  95 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

99/99


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.