Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 130210 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
910 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

.UPDATE...
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THE REST OF
THIS EVENING ENDING AROUND MIDNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS A
BIT TRICKY FOR TONIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND
ON HOW QUICKLY CLOUDS CLEAR OUT AND WINDS DIE DOWN. WITH THE
SOUTHERN HALF OR SO OF THE AREA LIKELY TO STAY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT
AND WIND SPEEDS REMAINING UP FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME HAVE
ADJUSTED LOW TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
TEMPS GET EVEN TRICKIER IN NORTHERN OK WHERE LOW CLOUDS MAY HAVE A
CHANCE TO CLEAR OUT IN SOME AREAS AND WINDS WILL GO LIGHT SOONER.
HOWEVER... BAND OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS COULD HANG ON OVER
THE AREA WHICH MAY SLOW DOWN THE DROP IN TEMPERATURES. RAISED
TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN SOME PLACES ACROSS THE NORTH THINKING
THAT THE CLOUDS WILL HANG ON LONG ENOUGH TO SLOW THE DROP A LITTLE
BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. UPDATES OUT SHORTLY.

MAXWELL
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014/

AVIATION...
HAVE GONE MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH EROSION OF LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. IT APPEARS THAT MVFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND CONT LEAST THROUGH MID-MORNING.
OTHERWISE... GUSTY NATURE OF WINDS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER NEXT
TWO TO THREE HOURS. WILL ALSO KEEP MENTION OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE
AT SPS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY FORECAST ATTENTION REMAINS FOCUSED ON CURRENT PRECIPITATION
AND OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS.

CURRENTLY... THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT HAS CONTINUED TO PUSH SOUTHWARD
ACROSS TEXAS THIS AFTN. 19Z SFC ANALYSIS PLACES THE PRIMARY WIND
SHIFT WELL INTO SRN TX. A FAIRLY SHALLOW FRONT... AS SEEN FROM
RAP/NAM CROSS SECTIONS... LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ALONG A SWATH FROM W TX THROUGH ERN OK. RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST... AND
MESO GUIDANCE SUPPORT... THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE
AND SLIDE SOUTH AS THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH TOWARD
THE GULF.

BIG CHALLENGE AT THE MOMENT IS TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW
MORNING. A DECENT BROAD EXPANSE OF HIGH PRESSURE ON THE HEELS OF THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE SRN PLAINS. HOWEVER... LOW
CLOUDS REMAIN SPREAD FROM OK THROUGH CO/KS/NE. THE 18Z NAM HAS
ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY... SLOWING CLEARING THROUGH SAT MORNING. IN
RESPONSE... TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY ACROSS NRN OK... BUT REMAINED
CONSERVATIVE FOR CENTRAL AND SRN OK AND WRN N TX. LOOK FOR LOWS
OVERNIGHT IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS TEXOMA. FOR TMRW... MADE
MINOR CHANGES FOR HIGHS... WITH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. OVERALL...
LIGHT WINDS AND MILD TEMPS WILL MAKE FOR A DECENT GAME DAY.

NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE MON-TUE AS A SIMILAR SYNOPTIC SET UP
PRESENTS ITSELF. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS AS AN H500 TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE CANADIAN/NORTHERN PLAINS.
BEYOND TUE... TEMPS WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK... WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

JTK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  50  69  57  81 /  10   0  10  10
HOBART OK         51  70  58  80 /  10  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  54  72  60  82 /  20  10  10  10
GAGE OK           45  68  55  83 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     44  68  55  81 /   0   0   0   0
DURANT OK         56  73  60  81 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

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