Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
FXUS64 KOUN 102332
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
532 PM CST Tue Jan 10 2017
The 00Z aviation discussion follows....
A surface ridge will move east and away from Oklahoma/north Texas
this evening, as a strong surface low develops over the central
Plains. A tightening pressure gradient will result in gradually
increasing winds at most sites overnight, and especially in the
morning on Wednesday. A cold front will approach the northern
border of Oklahoma Wednesday evening, but is unlikely to produce
any significant effects at KGAG/KWWR before 00Z. Low clouds will
be possible Wednesday morning, roughly east of KADM-KSNL, but are
unlikely to affect any of our TAF sites.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 340 PM CST Tue Jan 10 2017/
The main forecast concern is winter weather this weekend, but first
a brief word about fire weather tomorrow.
Temperatures are expected to warm into the 70s and 80s tomorrow and
winds will be a bit gusty as the pressure gradient tightens. The air
is dry enough that this warming will bring RH values across our
western counties down into the upper teens, creating elevated to
near critical fire weather concerns.
Thursday morning a strong shallow front is set to move in, bringing
much colder temperatures behind it. Southerly low level winds will
continue to bring in abundant moisture over this shallow front,
resulting in the potential for several inches of widespread
Models continue to hold to the slightly warmer trend. The GFS
continues to be significantly warmer than the ECMWF, though both
models seem to be coming closer together. Right now it looks like
freezing rain could set all the way down to about the I-44 corridor,
though there is still the question as to when and how far this will
pull back with the ECMWF wanting to hold onto the cooler
temperatures longer. Forecast reflects a blended solution, adjusted
downward in temperature a few degrees to account for evaporative
cooling and model tendency to under do shallow cold fronts. Though,
with the main upper low driving this storm off on the Pacific Coast,
thinking model depiction of cold air advection may not be that far
off. Also, reduced the diurnal swing as cloud cover and persistent
rain should keep temperatures closer to wetbulb. Friday and Saturday
are the main concern for freezing rain. By Sunday, temperatures look
to be warm enough to transition most of the area to rain.
Flooding will also be a concern with the approaching storm system.
As mentioned earlier, storm total amounts have the potential to be
several inches across much of the area, which would be well above a
normal January rainfall.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 44 74 39 50 / 0 0 0 0
Hobart OK 42 75 37 53 / 0 0 0 0
Wichita Falls TX 46 80 46 63 / 0 0 0 0
Gage OK 41 72 29 48 / 0 0 0 0
Ponca City OK 41 72 28 45 / 0 0 0 0
Durant OK 51 74 58 68 / 10 10 10 20