Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 261714

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1214 PM CDT Fri May 26 2017

North to northwest winds will continue through the mid afternoon
early evening at all TAF sites. The wind will become east and
southeast at all sites by early evening with VFR ceilings
possible. Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to form
over the High Plains this afternoon. A few of these storms may come
close to northern Oklahoma by early to mid evening.

Overnight into early Saturday morning, MFVR ceilings are expected
to develop, especially at OKC,OUN, and PNC. Ceilings should
improve by mid morning Saturday. Mid-level clouds around 15k
should move across the area Saturday morning. Enough instability
may occur for a few light showers.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1049 AM CDT Fri May 26 2017/

Updated hourly temperature/wind forecast through 00Z and removed
the chance of storms for this afternoon.

The cold front continues to shift southward this morning with
gusty northerly winds and slightly cooler air behind the boundary.
Lowered high temperatures this afternoon, especially across
southwestern Oklahoma and adjacent parts of north Texas, where
cold air advection should be stronger than previously forecast.

Some thunderstorms may develop in the upslope flow across
southeast Colorado this afternoon. There is a chance these storms
may clip northwest Oklahoma later this evening; however, any
chance of storms should be after 00Z as the cap will likely hold
this afternoon.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 545 AM CDT Fri May 26 2017/


A mild front will move south over Oklahoma during the day shifting
winds to north. Late this afternoon and evening isolated
thunderstorms may form along the front in southeast Oklahoma.
Additionally, isolated thunderstorms may enter western Oklahoma
from a dryline in the panhandles. Any storms should dissipate
shortly after sunset. Scattered MVFR clouds may form late tonight.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 319 AM CDT Fri May 26 2017/

A strong warming trend begins today and increases more tomorrow.
Afternoon temperatures Saturday may reach the middle 90s in
central Oklahoma and will exceed 100 in southwest Oklahoma and
areas to the southwest. A weak trough will move southeast across
Oklahoma today with resulting northwest winds; however, surface
moisture will increase substantially across southeast Oklahoma
where isolated thunderstorms may form very late this afternoon or
evening before dissipating with sunset. Daytime isolated
thunderstorms may move into western Oklahoma late this afternoon
from a dryline that will range across the Texas panhandle. There
is a small chance that an isolated storm could produce large hail.
On Saturday, conditions will be more favorable for severe
thunderstorms. Only weak waves aloft are forecast to cross the
area, but very strong moisture advection will result in dewpoint
temperatures over 70 east of I-35 with strong instability.
Additionally, a front will move south and intersect with the
dryline which is expected to mix east during the early evening. A
triple point may develop somewhere over western Oklahoma or
northern Texas. Strong shear and instability results in an
enhanced risk for severe storms across southeast Oklahoma with
lower risks to the west which are areas that may be west of the
dryline by the time the cap is broken to allow storms to develop.
This front will push into Texas Sunday with somewhat drier and
milder conditions for the first part of the next week. By
Wednesday humid conditions are again expected with moisture coming
north from the Gulf. A series of weak upper waves keeps
thunderstorm chances in the forecast the second part of the week.


Oklahoma City OK  70  94  64  80 /   0  10  30  10
Hobart OK         63  98  64  82 /   0  10  10  10
Wichita Falls TX  71 101  67  83 /   0  10  20  10
Gage OK           61  87  56  78 /  20  10  10   0
Ponca City OK     66  90  62  80 /  10  10  20  10
Durant OK         75  92  70  82 /  10  20  50  40



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