Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 241019
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
419 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME
FORM OF PRECIPITATION SOMEWHERE WITHIN OUR FORECAST AREA ON EVERY
DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AFTER TODAY.

THE FIRST 18 HOURS...HOWEVER...SHOULD BE DRY. AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND INTO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...SOME LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE IN WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. AT
THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITHIN OUR
AREA...WITH HEAVIER AMOUNTS LIKELY RESTRICTED TO NORTH-CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST TEXAS.

ELSEWHERE...WEDNESDAY WILL BE RELATIVELY WARM...ALTHOUGH STILL
SOMEWHAT BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURE...AND DRY. LOW
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW WILL RETURN TO THE FAR NORTH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BRING
A RETURN TO WELL-BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES LIKE THOSE WE ARE
CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING.

A MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENT WILL BEGIN EARLY FRIDAY.
SNOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE WEST FRIDAY MORNING...THEN SPREAD EAST
DURING THE DAY. THEN...OVER THE WEEKEND...STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW-
LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED. THIS WILL BRING WARMER
AIR...ALONG WITH LOTS MORE MOISTURE. THE SNOW WILL TURN TO RAIN AS
WARMER AIR ADVANCES NORTH. THERE WILL EVEN BE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY.

EARLY MONDAY...SURFACE-LEVEL COLD AIR WILL BE DRAWN BACK INTO
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...WITH MUCH WARMER AIR ALOFT. THIS
MAKES FREEZING RAIN A MUCH MORE LIKELY PRECIPITATION TYPE THAN
SNOW...IN THOSE AREAS THAT DROP BELOW FREEZING AT THE SURFACE.
THIS CHANCE FOR RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AT
LEAST TUESDAY. MODEL CONSISTENCY EARLY NEXT WEEK COULD BE A LOT
BETTER THAN IT IS...SO THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF POTENTIAL FOR
CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  42  24  51  26 /   0   0   0  10
HOBART OK         42  24  53  26 /   0  10   0  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  41  27  54  29 /   0  20  10   0
GAGE OK           41  18  49  20 /   0  10  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     40  20  47  22 /   0   0   0  20
DURANT OK         39  28  46  30 /   0  40  40  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/23



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