Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 161107 AAA
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
607 AM CDT Sun Apr 16 2017

.AVIATION...
16/12Z TAFs.
SHRA and TSRA will affect KPNC first few hours of forecast and
may briefly affect KOKC/KOUN. VFR and MVFR conditions will prevail
through period with TSRA expected to increase in coverage toward
and after 22-24Z this afternoon from southwest Oklahoma into
central Oklahoma. Confidence not terribly high but relatively
strong s/wv trough will approach and should allow initiation late
today. Some IFR cigs/vis restrictions near TSRA tonight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 410 AM CDT Sun Apr 16 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Complex and relatively low confidence forecast first 24 to 36 hours
of forecast package. 00Z and even 06Z synoptic models struggling
with evolution of current MCS across southern Kansas. However,
majority of CAMs seem to be on a similar page with regards to
progression of current convective activity and handling of main
frontal boundary later today. Current scenario has MCS tracking
more east than south skirting mainly far northern and eastern
portions of CWA this morning. Still expect strongest/severe
convection to increase late this afternoon through tonight as
mid-level wave crossing Baja region early this morning begins to
influence height falls this evening and overnight. This wave is
clearly evident on water vapor and may be underdone in suite of
model guidance. Majority of guidance initiates storms near west
central and southwest Oklahoma, then northward into north central
Oklahoma ahead of stalled frontal boundary. There may also be a
favored area for isolated or scattered convection across southeast
portions of Oklahoma late today near remnant outflow boundary and
weaker cap.

A couple of days free of storms still expected on Tuesday and
Wednesday before a series of strong systems move into the central
and southern plains. First system will help push a frontal
boundary over the region late Wednesday and early Thursday,
stalling the front across northern Texas during the day Thursday.
Major storm system that has been progd fairly consistently
approaches late Thursday through Friday. There is a consensus of
a very strong waa regime north of the mentioned front Thursday
night/early Friday, which will affect how far north the boundary
progresses and also how much destabilization can be reached for
high impact weather. At this point, models are indicating fairly
high potential for heavy rain event over the region and this will
be primary impact focus for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  77  60  75  60 /  40  60  30  10
Hobart OK         79  56  76  58 /  40  60  20  20
Wichita Falls TX  80  61  80  59 /  30  40  30  20
Gage OK           75  53  74  57 /  30  30  20  20
Ponca City OK     78  58  75  60 /  90  60  30  10
Durant OK         79  65  78  60 /  40  40  50  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

04/11



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