Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 141546
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1046 AM CDT Fri Jul 14 2017

.UPDATE...
Updated hourly temperatures and the chance of showers/storms
through 00Z.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A wind shift/effective cold front is currently located across
north central Oklahoma--generally along a line between the first
and second row of counties south of the Kansas border. Isolated to
scattered showers/thunderstorms will be possible in the vicinity
of this boundary this afternoon into the early evening.

Any southerly propagation of convection will likely be outflow
driven. In addition, expect convection to be primarily diurnally
focused with any remnant convection weakening/dissipating early to
mid-evening.

The probably of severe weather/organized convection will be low
with limited vertical wind shear; however, ~30F dewpoint
depressions and DCAPE >=1000 J/kg will be favorable for gusty
winds/isolated downbursts.

Mahale

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 551 AM CDT Fri Jul 14 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
VFR will apply through the period. There is a low chance of
thunderstorms developing from near GAG/WWR to PNC later this
afternoon. Storm coverage will remain widely scattered though so
have only included VCTS for WWR/GAG and a PROB30 for PNC.
Otherwise, expect mid to high clouds most of the day along and
north of I40 with south winds around 10 kt.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 334 AM CDT Fri Jul 14 2017/

DISCUSSION...
The synoptic cold front has essentially stalled across
northwestern OK early this morning, with an outflow boundary
extending from near Enid to Stillwater. Some showers and isolated
storms may meander into northeast OK before sunrise but do not
expect any significant rainfall. Later this afternoon thru early
this evening, isolated to widely scattered moist convection still
appears possible near this boundary mainly north of I40.

By Saturday, the remnant sfc trough will likely be somewhere near
central OK and rain chances will shift south and southwestward as
a result. This trend will continue thru Sunday but chances appear
lower for most of the FA as deeper mid level moisture shifts
westward. Severe weather is not expected with any of the storms
that develop this weekend, although a few strong wind gusts and
locally heavy rainfall will accompany them. Rain chances will
decrease Monday with the mid to upper ridge shifting nearly
overhead. The short break of slightly cooler afternoon temps will
start to come to an end as well. However, the ECMWF suggests the
ridge may stay slightly further east which would support slightly
cooler, and welcomed, high temperatures.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  97  74  96  73 /  20  20  40  30
Hobart OK         98  74  97  73 /  10  10  20  40
Wichita Falls TX  98  75  97  74 /  10  10  20  20
Gage OK           95  71  95  70 /  30  20  40  40
Ponca City OK     93  73  93  71 /  30  20  20  10
Durant OK         95  74  93  73 /  10  10  40  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

03/10



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