Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 201624

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1124 AM CDT SAT AUG 20 2016

We have updated precipitation chances based on trends. Low
probabilities were kept in the south ahead of a weak vort max.
Alos, lingering low level moisture and weak diabatic heating will
contribute to weak instability and possibly a few showers. But
frontal convergence and deeper lift has shifted south. Minor
adjustments to sky cover and wind were also made based on trends
in obs. Grids and graphics have been updated and sent.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 641 AM CDT SAT AUG 20 2016/

Aviation discussion for the 12 UTC TAFs is below.

Some IFR/MVFR ceilings will affect most sites through 18 UTC. KSPS
has the greatest chance for IFR/MVFR ceilings. These ceilings
will be patchy.

After 18 UTC, there is high confidence of VFR conditions at all

Any patchy -RA/-SHRA should end near at all sites by 15 UTC.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 338 AM CDT SAT AUG 20 2016/

Rain chances and locally heavy rainfall potential this morning are
the main concerns.

This morning, rain and some thunderstorms will continue to affect
mainly southern Oklahoma and western north Texas, mainly before
9 am. Some locations may get a quick 0.5-1.5" south of a Crowell
Texas to Lawton to Norman line early this morning which may cause
localized flooding. No severe storms are expected due to weak
shear and limited instability. A cold front will move into
northern Oklahoma bringing slightly drier air as well as
increasing north surface winds.

This afternoon, clearing skies can be expected north to south
with drier air moving in from the north behind the front. Kept
rain chances mainly 20-60% across southern Oklahoma and western
north Texas, south of a Quanah Texas to Lawton to Seminole line
near the front, though some of the latest HRRR guidance members
depicted most of the rain well south of the Red River. Model
guidance highs appeared reasonable and were accepted, mainly in
the lower to mid 80s. Surface dewpoints will fall into the 50s
across northern Oklahoma.

Tonight, cool and dry conditions will occur across much of the
area with many locations in northern Oklahoma falling into the
50s. Kept 20-30% rain chances closer to the lingering front south
of a Crowell Texas to Wichita Falls to Coalgate line. Patchy fog
may form in parts of southern Oklahoma and western north Texas
closer to the front if skies are slow to clear today. Did not
include mention of any fog.

Sunday will be mostly sunny with low humidity and cooler than
average temperatures in most locations. Still kept 20% chances of
rain south of the Red River closer to the front.

Sunday night, the front in Texas will slowly lift northwards as a
warm front. Rain chances were kept across far southern Oklahoma
and north Texas as moisture increases. Fog, possibly dense, may
occur as well late Sunday night into Monday morning mainly south
of a Cheyenne to Stillwater line as low level moisture increases,
but did not mention due to low confidence of occurrence.

Monday, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms with
locally heavy rainfall may return to the area, especially near and
southeast of I-44 as deep moisture returns. Clouds and rain should
keep temperatures several degrees below average.

Tuesday through Friday, cooler than average temperatures are
generally expected with rain chances expected most days. Locally
heavy rainfall will be the main concern, though increasing shear
may support some strong to severe storms with damaging winds at
times during this time frame, especially around Wednesday as a
cold front may affect the area.



Oklahoma City OK  83  63  86  63 /  20   0   0   0
Hobart OK         83  61  88  63 /  20  10   0  10
Wichita Falls TX  84  65  86  66 /  40  20  20  30
Gage OK           81  53  87  61 /  10   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     81  56  85  61 /  10   0   0   0
Durant OK         83  68  86  68 /  90  40  20  30


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