Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 121731
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1231 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

.AVIATION...18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
ONGOING PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE THE PRIMARY AVIATION
CONCERN. EXPECT IFR TO MVFR CIGS TO PERSIST AT ALL SITES THROUGH
THIS EVENING. UPSTREAM... ACROSS KS/CO/NE... MVFR CIGS CONTINUE
BEHIND THE FRONT. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT SITES ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SRN OK AND WRN N TX THROUGH THE EVENING. AS DRIER AIR
CONTINUES TO SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT... VFR CIGS SHOULD
RETURN LATE IN THE PERIOD... THROUGH TMRW MORNING.

JTK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1041 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS COVER THE ENTIRE STATE OF OKLAHOMA...AND ALL OF NORTHERN
TEXAS...LATE THIS MORNING. RAIN IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS...AS PATCHES OF DRIZZLE
CONTINUE FARTHER NORTH.

THE RAIN AND CLOUDS ARE RESULTING IN RELATIVELY VERY COOL
CONDITIONS...AND MOST LOCATIONS WILL HAVE NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...BEFORE COOLING FURTHER THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT.

THE FORECAST IS IN REASONABLY GOOD SHAPE. HAVE MADE JUST A FEW
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AND A FEW OTHER DETAILS TO
BRING THEM MORE IN LINE WITH ACTUAL AND EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 643 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014/

AVIATION...
12/12Z TAFS...WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
16-18Z TIMEFRAME WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENT THEREAFTER TO MVFR AND VFR
FROM NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TO KSPS DURING THE AFTERNOON. TSRA IN
TERMINAL WILL BE CONFINED TO KSPS WITH TSRA EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTH
AND EAST OF REST OF TERMINALS. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY
THROUGH 22Z-00Z THEN DECREASE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ALTHOUGH DAYTIME FORECAST HIGHS WOULD TIE OR BREAK RECORDS FOR
COOL MAX TEMPS AT A FEW LOCATIONS...THE CALENDAR DAY HIGH LIKELY
OCCURRED JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WILL KEEP MOST RECORDS FROM
BEING REALIZED.

AREAS OF DRIZZLE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER MOST
LOCATIONS AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL BE DELINEATED BY
DIFFUSE BAROCLINIC ZONE...DRIER AIR...AND WINDS BACKED TO A MORE
NORTHERLY DIRECTION. THIS FRONT IS APPROACHING NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
BORDER AT THIS TYPING AND WILL MAKE FAIRLY QUICK PROGRESS
SOUTHWARD AND SHOULD EXIT SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS PORTION OF CWA MID-LATE AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL
DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY A FEW HOURS AFTER FROPA AS DRIER AIR
DEEPENS. ALTHOUGH MOST LOCATIONS MAY ONLY GET TRACE TO A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH TODAY...HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL BE CONFINED TO
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA COUNTIES IN PROXIMITY TO H85
BAROCLINIC ZONE. MODEST LOW LEVEL JET IS CURRENTLY AIDING IN
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS NORTH OF THE DFW METRO TO LAKE TEXOMA
AND DURANT. THIS JET IS PROGD TO WEAKEN AND VEER AFTER ABOUT 9 AM
THIS MORNING SO WE SHOULD SEE THUNDERSTORMS DECREASE AND/OR SHIFT
EAST OF THE CWA BEFORE NOON. ADDITIONAL STORMS MOVING OUT OF WEST
TEXAS INTO OUR NORTH TEXAS COUNTIES THIS MORNING SHOULD ALSO
DECREASE IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE MORNING.
OUTSIDE OF THESE AREAS...MOST OF THE MOISTURE TODAY IS EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE FORM OF OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...BEFORE RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. REGION WILL BE BRUSHED
BY SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF ANOTHER NORTHERN-CENTRAL PLAINS UPPER
TROUGH...WITH A SURFACE REFLECTION OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ENHANCED BY MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO DISTURBANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  49  70  57  80 /  20  10  10  10
HOBART OK         48  70  58  80 /  20  10  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  53  72  61  80 /  30  10  10  10
GAGE OK           41  68  54  81 /  10   0  10  10
PONCA CITY OK     44  68  55  80 /  10   0  10  10
DURANT OK         55  73  61  81 /  30  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17/04/04



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