Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 030345
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1045 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...


&&

.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL
PASS SLOWLY FROM CENTRAL INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH FRIDAY.
MOST STORMS WILL SUBSIDE AT NIGHT BUT AGAIN FORM IN THE AFTERNOON
FRIDAY OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE
OF THUNDERSTORMS WHOSE PRIMARY RISK IS VERY GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL
PASS SLOWLY FROM NORTHERN INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH FRIDAY.
MOST STORMS WILL SUBSIDE AT NIGHT BUT AGAIN FORM IN THE AFTERNOON
FRIDAY OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE
OF THUNDERSTORMS WHOSE PRIMARY RISK IS VERY GUSTY WINDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ALREADY STARTING TO SEE A FEW CELLS DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT
DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. THIS DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE NIGHT AS THE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY SOUTHWARD. WITH AMPLE
CAPE...DCAPE...AND SHEAR...SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE AND SHIFT SOUTHWARD
WITH THE FRONT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AGAIN...INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS.

SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL SHIFT NORTH AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT
BEGINS TO LIFT. MODELS ARE SHOWING A SECOND FRONT SWINGING DOWN
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS STILL A LITTLE BIT
OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT...BUT THE MOISTURE WILL
BE IN PLACE TO SET UP FOR CONVECTION. MODELS STALL THIS FRONT
ACROSS OKLAHOMA...KEEPING POPS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AFTER THIS...MODELS TRY TO BUILD THE UPPER RIDGE BACK
IN.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE KEPT SEASONABLY COOL THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT
WEEK WITH THE PASSAGE OF THESE COLD FRONTS...UNTIL THE RIDGE
STARTS TO BUILD IN AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK.

MAD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  69  89  70  89 /  70  40  50  30
HOBART OK         71  92  70  91 /  50  30  40  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  75  92  72  92 /  40  40  40  40
GAGE OK           67  89  66  90 /  20  30  30  30
PONCA CITY OK     68  89  68  89 /  30  30  30  20
DURANT OK         73  87  70  88 /  50  70  60  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

26/09/09


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