Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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073
FXUS64 KOUN 060311 AAB
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
911 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OR LESS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE SPRINKLES/RAIN WILL MOVE OUT OF THE FA EARLY
SATURDAY. MADE SOME MORE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO SHOW CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS BUT OVERALL NO MAJOR CHANGES TO POPS.

COLD FRONT WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
BRINGING SOME COLDER AIR TO THE FA. THE COLD AIR ALONG WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES HAVE CAUSED TEMPS TO ALREADY DROP QUICKLY IN
NW OK SO HAVE MADE SOME TEMP ADJUSTMENTS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FA.
ALL UPDATES OUT SOON.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 545 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

DISCUSSION...
06/00Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
PRIMARILY VFR FORECAST WILL CONTINUE ALTHOUGH PERSISTENT AREA OF
VERY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM NORTH/WEST OKLAHOMA
SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. CANNOT RULE
OUT BRIEF MVFR VIS/CIG UNDER AREA OF RAIN. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTH THROUGH EARLY PART OF FORECAST PERIOD. CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHWEST TO WEST WIND EXPECTED AFTER 12Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 453 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

UPDATE...
INCREASED POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
RAISED POPS SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS ALL BUT FAR SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF
FORECAST AREA BASED ON CURRENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTENING/COOLING
TRENDS AND HIGH-RES MODEL TRENDS. ALTHOUGH POPS WILL BE FAIRLY
HIGH...MOST RAIN ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN ONE-TENTH OF AN
INCH WITH POSSIBLY NEAR ONE-QUARTER FAR SOUTHEAST WHERE SLIGHTLY
BETTER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE LATE TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A FAST-MOVING UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING A SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA TONIGHT. IF ANY RAIN OCCURS, SOME IN
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA MAY BRIEFLY MIX WITH SNOW. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT
QUICKLY AND LEAVE MODERATE NORTH WINDS IN ITS WAKE. THE NEXT WEEK
BRINGS GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW AND A SERIES OF DRY FRONTS, THE NEXT
OF WHICH IS EXPECTED SUNDAY. GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
FOLLOW THIS ONE INTO MONDAY AND COULD RAISE WILDFIRE POTENTIAL
THAT AFTERNOON. ANOTHER DRY FRONT MAY PASS MID-WEEK BEFORE THE
NORTHERLY FLOW GIVES WAY TO WEAKER WESTERLY FLOW. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AROUND NORMALS UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK WHEN A MILD WARMING
TREND STARTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  29  52  32  57 /  70   0   0   0
HOBART OK         28  53  30  56 /  10   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  30  55  31  60 /  20   0   0   0
GAGE OK           21  55  26  53 /  20   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     27  51  31  53 /  40   0   0   0
DURANT OK         34  53  34  60 /  60  30   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

25/11



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