Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 151706
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1205 PM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions to continue.

Gusty north winds will gradually diminish from north to south this
afternoon. Should see light winds tonight shifting to the south late
tonight into Monday morning. Skies will remain clear.

30

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 918 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017/

.UPDATE...
Have gone ahead and removed remaining precip chances this morning
across southeast Oklahoma. Otherwise, some minor tweaks to sky
grids based on latest satellite trends.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 535 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Aviation discussion for the 12 UTC TAFs is below.

AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.

Northerly surface winds will remain gusty at most sites except
northern Oklahoma sites (KPNC, KWWR, and KGAG). Surface winds
will then subside 18-01 UTC at all locations.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 320 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Strong surface winds and rain chances early this morning are the
main forecast challenges.

Discontinued the Wind Advisory near and north of I-40 early this
morning where surface winds have weakened considerably. Kept it
going across southwestern Oklahoma and north Texas, though most
gusts will stay under 40 mph. The expiration time of the advisory
at 7 am this morning seems reasonable as surface winds will be
lighter late this morning into the afternoon as the surface
pressure gradient relaxes.

No more severe storms are expected early this morning as the air
has become more stable near the cold front. Numerous showers and
a few thunderstorms will continue just north of the surface cold
front. Kept rain chances now through 10 am this morning southeast
of a Wichita Falls to Norman to Chandler line.

Rest of today, clearing skies with decreasing surface winds will
make for a much cooler and drier day. Model guidance highs mainly
in the 60s seemed reasonable, about 10F below average and 20-25F
cooler than yesterday. The air will be much drier today with
surface dewpoints falling into the 30s and 40s. Abundant sunshine
will occur no later than 11 am.

Tonight, clear skies, light winds, and a surface high overhead
will allow for excellent radiational cooling and cool conditions.
Patches of frost may be possible in rural locations mainly over
northern Oklahoma. Will not issue a Frost Advisory at this time
thinking any frost will be limited in area with lows generally
above 36F. A steep low level inversion will allow for considerable
temperature differences around 10F between valleys and ridgetops.

Monday through early Saturday, dry weather and a gradual warming
trend can be expected with mid/upper level ridging. Low level
moisture and surface winds will likely increase slightly by the
end of the week. Above average temperatures are likely by the end
of the week, though readings should stay cooler compared to this
past Friday and Saturday (yesterday).

Late Saturday, rain chances may return to the area ahead of an
approaching low pressure system, though confidence remains very
low as latest medium range models have been depicting
varying solutions.

MBS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  65  41  69  44 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         66  40  69  44 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  68  42  69  45 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           65  36  71  43 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     64  37  69  43 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         68  45  72  46 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

30/25



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