Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 181654
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1154 AM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014

.AVIATION...
MVFR CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN
WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
INTO SATURDAY WHEN VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1034 AM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THICK CLOUDS REMAIN OVER MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
MORNING. THE OKLAHOMA MESONET SHOWS APPROXIMATELY 100 WATTS PER
SQUARE METER OF SOLAR RADIATION ACROSS HALF OUR FORECAST
AREA...WITH MUCH HIGHER VALUES ALONG THE WESTERN EDGES...WHERE
CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO BREAK UP. AS THE MEAGER AMOUNT OF
RADIATION HEATS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE...IT WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE
CLOUD LAYER FROM BELOW...ALLOWING MORE AND MORE RADIATION THROUGH
AS CLOUDS BECOME THINNER. NEVERTHELESS...THE CLOUDS APPEAR TO BE
THICK ENOUGH THAT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLEARING IS EXPECTED FOR
MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY.

THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. THE ONLY CHANGE THIS MORNING IS
TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES...WHICH WERE FORECAST TO RISE TOO QUICKLY
TODAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 545 AM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014/

AVIATION...
IFR CEILINGS MOST SITES THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY RISE INTO THE
MVFR BY MID/LATE MORNING AND THEN INTO THE VFR MID/LATE AFTN. STILL
SOME PATCHY FOG/DRIZZLE THIS MORNING ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE DRIZZLE
SEEMS TO HAVE DISSIPATED... WILL KEEP A MENTION OF SOME RESTRICTED
VISIBILITES. HOWEVER MOST SITES WILL REMAIN VFR

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT FRI JUL 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH WILL CONT TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TODAY... TAKING
WITH IT THE CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIP. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF
DRIZZLE AS WELL AS PATCHY FOG FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN PRECIP-FREE TODAY.

WILL SEE UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILD NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST
OVER THE PLAINS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE ONE
DISTURBANCE THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY TRY TO DRAG A FRONT
SOUTH INTO NORTHERN/NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN. HOWEVER LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE BECOMING A BIT MORE BULLISH
WITH BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE OUT INTO THE PLAINS NEXT WEEK. HAVE
THEREFORE BACKED-OFF A BIT ON PRECIP CHANCES AND HAVE RAISED TEMPS
A FEW DEGREES IN THE EXTENDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  77  64  86  70 /  10  10  10  10
HOBART OK         78  63  87  71 /   0   0  10  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  79  66  89  73 /  10  10  10   0
GAGE OK           79  61  89  69 /  10   0  10  20
PONCA CITY OK     77  62  85  69 /  10  10   0  10
DURANT OK         76  65  88  70 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

23/09/09


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