Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 071629 AAA
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
929 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...WE DOING A QUICK UPDATE TO BETTER REFLECT WHERE LOW
CLOUDS AND/OR FOG PERSIST THIS MORNING. WE ENDED UP NOT SEEING
MUCH IF ANY FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE SNAKE PLAIN AND
INTO THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS SO WE REMOVED IT FROM THE
FORECAST. IT LOOKS LIKE SOME OF THE MOUNTAINS ARE STARTING OFF A
BIT WARMER THAN EXPECTED...SO WE DID UP HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
SEVERAL RANGES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. WE ALSO
ADJUSTED A FEW VALLEY SPOTS DOWN A BIT BASED ON A COLDER START OR
LONGER PERSISTENCE OF STRATUS/FOG. KEYES

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. CURRENT WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING BUILDING IN OVER IDAHO.  EXPECT PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS
MORNING. FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG WITH VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES PARTICULARLY FOR THE MOUNTAINS.
SOME MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
WYATT

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DOMINANT THRU FRI. INVERSION
CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN NIGHTTIME LOW CLDS AND PATCHY FOG IN
VALLEYS. TEMPS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF BRING AN UPPER TROF INTO THE PAC NW ON SAT...BUT
THE GFS MOVES IT THRU ID MUCH QUICKER. ONLY LOOKING FOR LIGHT MTN
SNOW BOTH SAT AND SUN. THE MODELS DIVERGE EVEN MORE SUN NIGHT. THE
ECMWF BUILDS THE UPPER RIDGE BACK INTO THE WEST...WHILE THE GFS
MAINTAINS A MORE MOIST WESTERLY FLOW. WILL KEEP LOW POPS OVER THE
NORTHERN MTNS SUN NIGHT...LEANING TOWARD THE DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION.
HEDGES

AVIATION...MVFR/IFR CIGS/FOG IN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN EARLY THIS
MORN SHOULD IMPROVE BY AFTN. LOW CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT.
HEDGES

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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