Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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428
FXUS65 KPIH 240247
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
848 PM MDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday afternoon. A quick update
this evening as it appears that most of the convection is
diminishing across the area. Numerical models mostly support
somewhat dry conditions overnight, perhaps some showers along the
Montana border associated with the low to the north and maybe some
sneaking north into the SRN Highlands with the low splitting SSE
through California, otherwise dry. Still expecting an influx of
clouds from the north and south to help hold temps up overnight with
near frost conditions anticipated across the Upper Snake River
Plain. No highlights warranted,but keep your sensative plants
covered just in case. See the previous discussion below. Huston

Low pressure trough over Montana and Saskatchewan moves very slowly
the next couple of days. Meanwhile, another embedded disturbance
drifts southward along the Oregon and California coast. Temperature
lapse rates expected to be the steepest today with surface heating.
Convection already developing over the South Central and Caribou
Highlands...also along the frontal boundary and Montana trough,
but thunderstorms should be isolated in coverage. Cloud cover
increases Tuesday and Wednesday, temperatures hold fairly flat in
the 60s. Showers become more scattered over the mountains, but
thunderstorm potential remains only isolated both days. The trough
tries to move a little east by Thursday, but models agree with a
new disturbance moving south from British Columbia by Thursday
night and that will bring another cold front with it. As for frost
potential Tuesday morning, an advisory was not issued since clouds
increasing tonight should limit frost to very patchy spots and
mostly in the Eastern Highlands and Central Mountains rather than
the Snake Plain. RS

.LONG TERM...Thursday night through Monday.
Pattern continues to show several upper level trofs pushing through
Idaho which should keep the threat for mainly afternoon showers and
thunderstorms going Friday into next Monday.   both the European and
GFS models have backed off on the strong closed low solution to the
west of Idaho with an open trof passage Saturday into Sunday and
then a weak deep trof over Idaho and a weak closed circulation well
to southwest by Monday.   Main conclusion is it will remain somewhat
unsettled with slightly cooler than normal high temperatures through
next Monday.   And although the threat for showers exists it does
not appear as if there will be a long lasting or heavy rainfall. GK
&&

.AVIATION...Expect VFR conditions through Tuesday morning at all TAF
sites.   Showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected again
mainly over high elevations through sunset and put vicinity at BYI
and SUN as some of the shower activity over the mountains may drift
close to both sites.   The 10 to 20 knot sustained winds at PIH and
IDA will also subside at sunset. GK
&&

.PIH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.
&&

$$



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