Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 220900
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
300 AM MDT Sat Apr 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...Today through Monday...High pressure will allow for
a lovely Saturday with mostly clear skies and temperatures in the
mid 60s. Clouds will return overnight as a new cold front
approaches. This front will pass our region Sunday, decreasing
temperatures for Monday. Precip potentials for Sunday have been
increased across our region, though forecast models are not
exactly in agreement with each other. NAM seems to be outlier and
was not used in the official forecast. A wetter solution more in
line with the GFS/CNC/ECMWF solutions were blended with 0.10 to
0.20 inches of rain forecast Sunday and Sunday evening. Snow is
forecast above 6500 ft with 1 to 2 inches forecast, at most. More
than likely, most locations will see a dusting which would melt
before the end of the day anyway. A few lingering showers will
exist early Monday as well, but Monday afternoon and evening will
be the start of significantly wetter weather. Those that are
looking for rain will get it in spades, especially starting this
period. We will need to carefully monitor rivers and streams
beginning Monday in particular as rainfall amounts will start to
increase and could become problematic. NP/Valle

&&

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday.

Most of the week will be cool and unsettled as a large, moist low
pressure system slowly moves through the region. Definitely a
convective element with showers more widespread during the afternoon
and not so much during the overnight hours. There could be a rumble
of thunder during the afternoon especially Wednesday and Thursday
when the low is closest to the region. Snow levels will be
relatively low, generally hovering between 5000 and 6000 feet.
There`s a possibility for some light snow on the valley floors,
especially late at night or early in the morning, but probably not
much. Valle

&&

.AVIATION...As of 3:00 AM MDT...Most of SE ID is enjoying a
beautifully CLR, calm, cold, VFR night. Exception is KDIJ, where
some newly formed low stratus just dropped the terminal to MVFR.
With recent precip, cold temps under CLR skies, and very light
winds, one would be tempted to think fog or low stratus could be an
issue this AM. KDIJ is the only problem site so far. Looking at NAM
guidance, not out of the question that some low stratus could
develop at KPIH and KIDA, but forecast confidence in this is low.
MVFR will cont to be poss at KDIJ until just after daybreak due to
cigs, with gen VFR elsewhere. Sat imagery shows band of clouds
working in toward KSUN/KBYI from the west, but these are likely very
high cirrus as surface obs under the band cont to report CLR skies.

High pres will cont to build across SE ID today w/ high forecast
confidence in mostly CLR skies, gen light winds (15 kts or less) and
VFR at all airports. Our next system will spread high clouds in late
this eve, with showers poss after 08-09Z at KSUN/KBYI, and after 10-
11Z at the 3 eastern TAF sites. - KSMITH/VALLE

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$



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