Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 170319
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
820 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A QUICK UPDATE THIS EVENING.
REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWING MOST OF PRECIPITATION RETURNS LIFTING
INTO THE UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN/HIGHLANDS THIS EVENING WITH PARTIAL
CLEARING TRYING TO WORK INTO THE MAGIC VALLEY. THUS HAVE BEGUN TO
TAPER SNOW POTENTIAL IN THE WEST...GRADUALLY SPREADING EAST
OVERNIGHT. IF WE GET ANY SIGNIFICANT CLEARING OVERNIGHT WE WILL
LIKELY FOG BACK IN AND THUS HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG TO
THE FORECAST AS WELL FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
BELOW. HUSTON

LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN FALLING MOST OF THE MORNING OVER TOWARDS JEROME
AND SLIPPING NORTHWARD INTO HAILEY. LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOWS
NOW CROSSING THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND MOVING NORTH INTO THE
LOWER SNAKE PLAIN. VERY LITTLE SNOW TO BE FOUND IN LOCAL ITD WEB
CAMS AND THAT IS THE WAY TONIGHTS FORECAST GOES. LITTLE ACCUMULATION
IN THE SNAKE PLAIN. BEST ACCUMULATION IN THE UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS
TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHERE 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE. IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...SUN VALLEY SNOW STAKE THE LAST
12 HOURS SHOWS LESS THAN ONE INCH. MOUNTAINS AROUND THE AIRPORT
COULD SEE ANOTHER ONE INCH OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 10 HOURS BEFORE THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES FURTHER NORTHEAST. LATEST MODELS WASH OUT THE
LITTLE DISTURBANCE NEAR THE OREGON COAST BEFORE IT REACHES THIS
AREA. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE NEAR 140W COMES THROUGH SOUTHEAST IDAHO ON
THURSDAY BUT WITH LITTLE MORE THAN AN INCH OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS
EVEN LESS IN THE SNAKE PLAIN. THE FAST FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC BRINGS YET ANOTHER DISTURBANCE INTO IDAHO FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...AGAIN WITH PERHAPS A COUPLE INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. SO
FAR NONE OF THESE EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES ARE AMOUNTING TO ANYTHING
BIG. AT LEAST AT THIS PACE...WE COULD GET A WHITE CHRISTMAS ONE
SPOON FULL OF SNOW AT A TIME. RS

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CURRENT MODEL RUNS
TRANSITION US INTO A MOIST ZONAL PATTERN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
PRECIP MOSTLY FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HAVE INCREASED POPS
ACCORDINGLY OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE SAWTOOTH AND
TETON RANGES MAY SEE 8 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOWFALL SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL CLIMB THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AS WE SEE SOME
WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS. THIS WILL FAVOR RAIN
IN THE SNAKE PLAIN AND SNOW CONTINUING ABOVE 6500 FT ON MONDAY. WITH
THE JET SETTLING OVER IDAHO WE WILL ALSO SEE WINDS INCREASE ACROSS
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAKING BLOWING SNOW A
POSSIBILITY THROUGH MOUNTAIN PASSES. MODELS SIGNAL ANOTHER CHANGE IN
THE PATTERN WITH AN UPPER TROUGH DROPPING OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA
ON CHRISTMAS EVE. HINSBERGER
&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE SNAKE PLAIN SITES TODAY
AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION. KSUN MAY
SEE IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH
SNOW TAPERING OFF AROUND 8 OR 9 PM TONIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
MOS GUIDANCE SHOWING CONDITIONS DETERIORATING AGAIN LATER TOMORROW
MORNING WITH IFR CEILING AND VISIBILITY. BOTH NAM AND GFS MOS
SUGGEST LONG-DURATION IFR CONDITIONS STARTING TOMORROW MORNING.
HINSBERGER
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$










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