Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 190809
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
209 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD
AND QUICKLY SHIFT EAST TODAY AND MONDAY. WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE SOME
HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS CREEP IN FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. KEYES

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. THE MODELS ARE
SHOWING SOME SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES NOW. IT IS POSSIBLE WE MAY
SEE A FEW SHOWERS MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT FARTHER EAST BUT UNTIL
THINGS GET A LITTLE MORE ALIGNED...WE WILL KEEP IT AROUND 10
PERCENT. OTHERWISE...THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT
FALLS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ESPECIALLY WEST OF CHALLIS AND
STANLEY. WE WILL SEE THE STORM AND COLD FRONT SWING THROUGH
EASTERN IDAHO ON TUESDAY. THE TREND CONTINUES TO BRING RAIN AND
HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW FARTHER SOUTH...BUT STILL LEAVING THE BEAR LAKE
OUT OF THE MAIN BRUNT OF IT. THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS STILL LOOK TO
SEE THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...BETWEEN 0.50 AND 1.0
INCHES. SNOW LEVELS DROP TO 7500-8000FT OUT WEST BUT REMAIN CLOSER
TO 9000FT AS YOU HEAD TOWARD WYOMING. THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS COULD
SEE A FEW INCHES OF WET SNOW ESPECIALLY IF CAN REMAIN HEAVY ENOUGH
TO KEEP FROM MELTING AS IT FALLS. THE OTHER ISSUE WOULD BE THE
WIND ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-25MPH ARE
FORECAST ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN RIGHT NOW. OUR LOCAL WIND SCHEME
ACTUALLY INDICATES WE COULD SEE A LOWER END WIND EVENT...BUT WILL
NOT GO THAT HIGH FOR NOW. BLOWING DUST COULD STILL BE AN ISSUE
EVEN IF WE GET A LITTLE BIT OF RAIN.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE A BIT ON HOW STRONG THE RIDGE IS
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE GFS HAS SHIFTED BACK TOWARD WHAT IT
WAS SHOWING A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO WITH SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...THE ENSEMBLES STAY WITH A STRONGER RIDGE AND
PUSHING ANY MOISTURE FARTHER NORTHWEST. THE ECMWF STILL REMAINS
STEADFAST WITH A STRONGER RIDGE AND HASN`T WAVERED AT ALL. WE WILL
KEEP WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH A 1O PERCENT OR LESS CHANCE
OF A SHOWER ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WITH SOME OCCASIONAL
PASSING CLOUDS. AFTER SEEING ONE DAY OF AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES
WITH THE FRONT...WE WILL QUICKLY PUSH BACK TOWARD THE 60S AND 70S.
IT LOOKS LIKE THE PATTERN SHIFTS AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
ANOTHER STORM TRYING TO BRING PRECIPITATION OUR WAY.  KEYES


&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
WINDS ONCE AGAIN TODAY.

VALLE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS FOR TODAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON
TUESDAY BRINGING SHOWERS AND WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.

VALLE

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







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