Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 190847
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
247 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUN NIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OF LAST NIGHT WILL CLEAR DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS A FLAT UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN THROUGH SUN MORNING...PUTTING EASTERN IDAHO
IN DRY WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY AIR FLOW. AT THIS POINT THE NEXT
UPSTREAM LOW ARRIVES FROM CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...SWITCHING AIR FLOW
TO SOUTHERLY AND PUMPING UP MOIST UNSTABLE AIR AS EARLY AS SUN
AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND SUN NIGHT
FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS
WITH THIS FEATURE DUE TO THE STRONG INSTABILITY. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM FOR SAT...BUT CLOUD COVER STARTS A COOL DOWN SUN THAT
CONTINUES AT A LESSER RATE FOR MON. OVERNIGHT LOWS PARTICULARLY
DIFFICULT...BUT WOULD EXPECT COLDER TONIGHT WITH CLEARER SKIES
THAN LAST NIGHT...BUT SUN NIGHT VERY HARD TO SAY. HOWEVER...WITH
THE WARMING ON SAT DO NOT EXPECT ANY TROUBLE WITH THE FREEZING
POINT EXCEPT IN ALPINE BASINS. WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE LIGHT WITH
AFTERNOON BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN. MESSICK

.LONG TERM...MON THROUGH THU NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OUT
DURING THE MORNING ON MON...CONTINUING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALL DAY. BUT BY MON NIGHT CLEARING SHOULD DEVELOP IN WHAT IS
BECOMING A VERY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. BREAK UNDER THIS UPPER LEVEL
HIGH LASTS AT LEAST UNTIL THU...WHEN A HIGH AMPLITUDE...MUCH
STRONGER LOW REACHES THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND PUMPS MOIST AIR IN
WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. INCREASING CHANCES FOR THU
NIGHT. THIS LOW COULD BRING MUCH STRONGER WINDS UNDER THE MILD AIR
FLOW. THE LONG WAVE SUPPORTS THE EARLY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THROUGH
TUE...THEN THE 500MB FLOW AT THE MID-WEEK PERIOD PUTS THE LONG
WAVE TROUGH AT THE COAST AND THUS SUPPORTS THE WET LATE WEEK
SOLUTION. MESSICK

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT DRY/VFR CONDITIONS TODAY FOR TAF SITES AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. SOME WIND GUSTS TO 20KTS IS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN.

VALLE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A FEW RESIDUAL SHOWERS REMAINS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING
OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST IDAHO. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE
DRY WEATHER FOR TODAY AND SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
ARRIVE ON SUNDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA.

VALLE

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







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