Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 110910
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
310 AM MDT FRI APR 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUN NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
IN FROM THE SOUTH AND PUSHING THE STORM TRACK FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO
LEAVE THE FORECAST AREA FREE OF ANY SERIOUS PRECIPITATION THREAT
UNTIL SAT AFTERNOON. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE
SAT TROUGH THAT FRI AFTERNOON COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ID-MT BORDER REGION. A MODERATELY STRONG
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY SAT...BUT IT IS
DRY ENOUGH WHERE CLOUD COVER AND BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE
ABOUT ALL TO EXPECT...WITH MOUNTAINS GETTING A SLIGHT CHANCE.
NORTHERLY WIND IN THE UPPER LEVELS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND
MEANS SOME ENHANCED PRECIPITATION THREAT IN THE SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS
AND ALONG THE ID-WY BORDER. TODAY IS THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD
BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH SAT...THEN MUCH COLDER FOR SUN AS
THE COLD AIR SETTLES IN BEHIND THE SAT TROUGH. EXPECT CLEARING
CONDITIONS LATE SUN NIGHT. MESSICK

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED
TO BUILD IN MONDAY AND STAY IN PLACE THROUGH SOME TIME TUESDAY.
MODELS ARE DISAGREEING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND BEYOND. THE
ECMWF FLATTENS THE RIDGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND BRINGS A SHORTWAVE
THROUGH. HOWEVER...THE GFS KEEPS THE RIDGE IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY AND TRACKS IN A CLOSED UPPER LOW THROUGH NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA...THEN THROUGH NORTHERN NV AND UT THROUGH THURSDAY
LEAVING SE ID UNDER A SPLIT FLOW. HOWEVER...BY THE WEEKEND...BOTH
MODELS ARE PLACING SE ID INTO A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW SO HAVE LEFT
CLIMO POPS IN FOR THAT TIME FRAME. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE A BIT
ABOVE NORMAL FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY UNDER THE RIDGE BUT RETURN TO
NEAR NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. EP

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND A BREEZY
AFTERNOON. EP

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







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