Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 241415
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
815 AM MDT MON AUG 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...A QUICK UPDATE THIS MORNING TO ADD MENTION OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SE HIGHLANDS WHERE CURRENT RADAR AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY ARE SHOWING WEAK RETURNS AND INSTABILITY. BOTH THE
NAM AND GFS SHOW A CONTINUATION OF ISOLATED CHANCES FOR TUESDAY AND
WILL NEED TO RE-INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION FOR THE MOUNTAINS
AND WILL DO THE LATTER ON THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. SEE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION BELOW. HUSTON

GENERALLY PLEASANT AND WARMER WEATHER TODAY AS UPPER RIDGE REMAINS
IN PLACE OVER THE WEST. WV/IR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS MAKING THEIR WAY THROUGH THE RIDGE...AND SOME SMOKE REMAINS
OVER THE AREA THOUGH VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED SINCE YESTERDAY.
WILL KEEP PATCHY SMOKE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT TO
SEE A WAVE LIFT OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL INCREASE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER OUR SOUTHEASTERN
HIGHLANDS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH MORE ISOLATED BUILDUPS OVER
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MONSOON MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE FEEDING INTO IDAHO THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN GET SHUNTED
TO THE EAST AS A PACIFIC TROUGH BEGINS WORKING ITS WAY ONSHORE.
GFS/ECMWF ARE AT ODDS WITH THE TIMING OF THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT
LIFTS ACROSS THE PAC NW. GFS FAVORS A WETTER DAY ON SATURDAY WHILE
THE ECMWF TIMES THE UPPER DISTURBANCE TO MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY.
HINSBERGER
&&

.AVIATION...THERE IS A MINOR DISTURBANCE PASSING OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN IDAHO TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WEST-
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND AN INCREASE IN VENTILATION TO HELP THIN THE
SMOKE. TAFS FOR KBYI AND KPIH WILL SHOW A LITTLE LESS SMOKE. THERE
IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM OVER THE
SOUTHEAST HIGHLANDS TOWARDS BEAR LAKE. RS
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A MARGINAL HAINES INDEX OF 6 WILL BE PRESENT AGAIN
TODAY BETWEEN LEADORE...SALMON AND CHALLIS AND POSSIBLY REPEAT AGAIN
ON TUESDAY. THE HAINES INDEX MAY ALSO REACH 6 TUESDAY AFTERNOON FROM
THE NORTHERN WASATCH NEAR PARIS TO ABOUT GRAYS LAKE. HIGH PRESSURE
IS BECOMING CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA WHILE WE HAVE
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER IDAHO...THUS THE POSSIBILITY OF
LITTLE DISTURBANCES TRICKLING THROUGH IS INCREASING. THERE IS A
MINOR DISTURBANCE TO CROSS NEAR BEAR LAKE THIS AFTERNOON THAT COULD
PRODUCE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. THERE WILL ALSO BE A DISTURBANCE
CROSSING NORTHERN IDAHO THAT WILL GENERATE A WEAK SURFACE FRONT FROM
WESTERN MONTANA TRAILING INTO IDAHO NEAR LEADORE AND MACKAY
DIRECTION. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 6 TO 12 MPH ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. THIS
IS MAINLY A DRY FRONT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM NEAR
MONIDA PASS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THE CARIBOU-
TARGHEE AREA. MORE ACTIVE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SNAKE PLAIN AND
EASTERN HIGHLANDS WAITS UNTIL WEDNESDAY. RS
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE
&&

$$


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