Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 180851
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
251 AM MDT MON MAY 18 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A RELATIVELY QUIET
MORNING SO FAR EXCEPT ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN EDGE OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. A LINE OF SHOWERS IS LIFTING NORTH-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
MOUNTAINS NEAR BURLEY AND THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY.
OTHERWISE...SOME CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY LIFTING ACROSS THE STATE. AS
THE LOW CREEPS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE SIERRAS...MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. WE WILL
LIKELY SEE SMALL HAIL AND POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH STRONGER
BANDS AND CELLS. THE LOW PICKS UP A LITTLE SPEED AND REACHES
WYOMING BY TOMORROW EVENING. THERE ARE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN
THE MODELS THIS MORNING WITH THE EXACT TRACK...WHICH ARE ACTUALLY
LEADING TO BIGGER ISSUES WITH WHERE AND HOW MUCH RAINFALL OUR SIDE
OF THE STATE WILL GET. THE NAM IS PRETTY SPARSE WITH SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING AND PUTS ANY FOCUS ALONG THE MONTANA
AND WYOMING BORDERS. THE GFS AND THE ECMWF KEEP THE FOCUS FARTHER
SOUTH...GENERALLY SOUTH OF A STANLEY-INL-DRIGGS LINE. WE TRENDED
TOWARD THE GFS/ECMWF IDEA BUT BLENDED IN SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER
CHANCES FARTHER NORTH. A SIMILAR TREND IN PLACING HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION IS REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...WITH THE LOW GETTING CLOSER EXPECT HIGHER CHANCES ACROSS
THE BOARD. HEAVIER RAIN IS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN...WITH ANY HAIL
POTENTIAL DETERMINED ON IF WE GET UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR STORMS. WE
WILL GRADUALLY SEE SHOWERS THIN OUT TOMORROW NIGHT AS THE STORMS
PULLS AWAY...WITH WRAPAROUND LIKELY FOCUS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD AT NIGHT DUE TO
THE COMBINATION OF CLOUDS AND MOISTURE IN THE AIR. HIGHS WILL
REMAIN CLOSE TO OR JUST BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE END OF MAY. KEYES

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. IF YOU WERE LOOKING
FOR DRY WEATHER HEADING INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...SORRY TO SAY
THAT LIKELY WON`T BE THE CASE. IF YOU WERE WISHING FOR MORE
MOISTURE...THINGS WILL BE RIGHT UP YOUR ALLEY. THE NEXT LOW MOVES
INLAND FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK. THE TRACK INITIALLY
LOOKS TO BE A BIT FARTHER SOUTH BUT IT STILL LOOKS LIKE PLENTY OF
MOISTURE STREAMS NORTH INTO IDAHO. THAT LOW MOVES INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS BY SATURDAY...BUT ANOTHER LOW IS RIGHT ON ITS HEELS.
INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH...THIS ONE IS DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH. IT
THE CURRENT TREND IS TO DROP IT SOUTH SOMEWHERE OVER
WASHINGTON...OREGON OR WESTERN IDAHO DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU
CHOOSE. THE POSITION OF THE LOW WILL DETERMINE IF AND WHEN WE
MIGHT SEE ANY BREAKS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. FOR NOW...WE WENT WITH A
RATHER BROAD APPROACH AND GAVE EVERYONE A CHANCE OF RAIN/HIGH
PEAK SNOW FOR NOW. TEMPERATURE TRENDS WILL REMAIN THE SAME...WITH
MILD NIGHTS AND AFTERNOON HIGHS CLOSE TO AVERAGE. KEYES


&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER LOW MOVING FROM THE CA COAST TO THE GREAT BASIN
BY TUE WILL RESULT IN SCT SHOWERS/ISOLD AFTN AND EVE TSTMS. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU TONIGHT. HEDGES

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AN UPPER LOW MOVING FROM THE CALIFORNIA COAST TO THE
GREAT BASIN BY TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MIDWEEK. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
READINGS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH DUE TO THE CURRENT AND PAST
PRECIPITATION. SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HEDGES

&&

.HYDROLOGY...SOME AREAS HAVE RECEIVED SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN OVER
THE PAST FEW DAYS. THAT HAS LEAD TO RISING WATER LEVELS ON AREA
STREAMS AND EVEN A FEW OF THE MAIN RIVERS. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD
FLOODING HASN`T BEEN SEEN. WITH MORE RAIN/HIGH ELEVATION SNOW ON
THE WAY...WE CAN EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME. RIGHT NOW...WE ARE
EXPECTING ANY MAJOR OR WIDESPREAD FLOODING BUT MORE LOCALIZED
ISSUES ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. ANOTHER THING TO BE ON THE LOOKOUT
FOR IS RUNOFF AND ROCK- OR MUDSLIDES IN THE TERRAIN AREAS. THIS
TYPE OF PATTERN IS CONDUCIVE TO LOOSENING ROCK. KEYES


&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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