Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27
000
FXUS65 KPIH 262048
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
248 PM MDT FRI JUN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. STRONG UPPER RIDGE
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION WITH AXIS CENTERED THROUGH
THE GREAT BASIN. MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH THROUGH NEVADA PROGGED
TO SHIFT NORTHWEST ACROSS OREGON. RIDGE SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE
MOISTURE WEST OF THE REGION BUT AFTERNOON BUILD UPS LIKELY. 850MB
TEMPS WARM DRASTICALLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND TO 35C+...ROUGHLY 2-3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY
ON TEMPS BUT HAVE HELD WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF PREVIOUS
FORECASTS. EXCEPTION IS MONDAY WHEN BOTH GFS AND NAM AGREE ON
SHIFTING RIDGE AND LOW LEVEL WARM AXIS SLIGHTLY EAST TOWARD
WYOMING BORDER...ALLOWING SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR TO SLIDE INTO THE
REGION ALONG WESTERN EDGES. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS
SLIGHTLY WITH ENERGY RIDING THROUGH THE PACNW AND THEN EAST ALONG
THE CANADIAN BORDER...SHIFTING THERMAL AXIS SOUTH. THUS HIGHEST
TEMPS EXPECTED SUN/MON. WARMEST OVERNIGHT TEMPS OCCUR THIS WEEKEND
AS WELL SO GREATEST HEAT IMPACT LIKELY ON SUNDAY. AS WITH PREVIOUS
RUNS MODELS STILL TRYING TO DEVELOP WEAK ISOLATED BULLSEYES OF QPF
THROUGH SUNDAY. HAVE LIGHTLY NUDGED CHANCES UP IN THE CENTRAL MTNS
BUT BETTER CONFIDENCE MONDAY WITH THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WORKING
ITS WAY AROUND THE HIGH AHEAD OF PACNW SHORTWAVE. INTERESTINGLY
GFS HOLDS PRECIP AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH ON MONDAY NOW
LEAVING EAST IDAHO QUITE DRY THOUGH GUIDANCE STILL HOLDS WITH BEST
THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT AFTERNOON. GIVEN TEMP PROFILE...WOULD
EXPECT DRY STORMS TO BE MAIN THREAT. DMH

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. STRONG UPPER HIGH REMAINS
CENTERED OVER UTAH. NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE OVER EAST IDAHO WHICH
SHOULD KEEP THERMAL AXIS SOUTH OF THE REGION. VERY WARM TEMPS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. MODELS AND GFS
ENSEMBLES LOSING CONSENSUS BY FRIDAY. GENERAL IDEA APPEARS TO PUSH
CENTER OF UPPER HIGH SOUTHWEST WITH ENERGY DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE
REGION FROM CANADA. COOLER TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE ON THE FAR
HORIZON LEADING INTO 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND. DMH


&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH
SATURDAY.
GK


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  WITH THE EXTREMELY HOT CONDITIONS
FROM TODAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK EXPECT HAINES INDEX IN THE 5
TO 6 RANGE BEGINNING SATURDAY AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY.   BIGGEST
PROBLEM IS HOW MUCH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WE GET UNDER THE RIDGE.
EXPECT MOST ACTIVITY IN THE SALMON RIVER AREA INTO THE BITTERROOTS
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH LESS ACTIVITY EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY.  DO NOT EXPECT STRONG WINDS UNDER THIS PATTERN.
GK


&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.