Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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000
FXUS65 KPIH 162007
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
207 PM MDT SAT AUG 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. UPPER LOW IN NORTHERN
MONTANA/SOUTHERN CANADA. WEAK CUMULUS FIELD SPREAD ACROSS MAINLY
HIGHER ELEVATIONS TODAY WITH DRY/SUNNY CONDITIONS MOST AREAS.
UPSTREAM REMAINS DRY WITH RIDGE NOSING INTO EAST IDAHO AHEAD OF
SLOWLY DEEPENING CIRCULATION ALONG COAST. RIDGE SLIGHTLY
AMPLIFIES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BUT MODELS REMAIN STEADFAST IN
SHOWING POCKETS OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.
NAM AND GFS REMAIN SIMILAR IN TIMING AND POSITIONING OF THESE
SMALL FEATURES...BUT NAM MORE BULLISH IN DEVELOPING QPF FROM THEM.
HAVE NUDGED POPS UPWARDS SLIGHTLY SUNDAY IN PLACES TO ACCOUNT FOR
THESE FEATURES BUT CAUTIOUSLY STAYED BELOW MENTION MOST AREAS.
BETTER CHANCES OCCUR ON MONDAY AS UPPER LOW DIVES TO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST TURNING FLOW MORE SOUTHERLY ACROSS THE REGION.
UPPER LOW PUSHED SOUTH ALONG THE COAST AS NEXT KICKER SHORTWAVE
DIVES INTO SOUTHERN BC CANADA MONDAY NIGHT. FLOW TURNS
SOUTHWESTERLY AGAIN BUT SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WITH
RESPECT TO MOISTURE. NAM FAVORS EARLIER ECMWF RUNS IN BRINGING
MOISTURE THROUGH GREAT BASIN INTO EAST IDAHO FOR TUESDAY BUT GFS
FAVORS A MORE EASTERLY TRACK FOR THE MOISTURE. COMPROMISED WITH
ISOLATED POPS HIGHER ELEVATIONS THROUGH THE DAY. DMH

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. ECMWF AND GFS REMAIN
SLIGHTLY OFF ON TIMING AND DEPTH OF PACIFIC TROUGH. GFS KEEPS
TROUGH OVER BC CANADA/ALBERTA WITH EAST IDAHO IN BASE OF
TROUGH...NOT QUITE CONNECTED TO LOW OFF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST.
THIS SOLUTION IS DRIER THAN ECMWF WHICH IS MORE AMPLIFIED AND HAS
A CLEARER CONNECTION TO LOW THAT IS SLIGHTLY MORE INLAND. BOTH
SOLUTIONS FAVOR A SLIGHT INCREASE IN POP OVER EASTERN IDAHO
THROUGH THE EXTENDED. DMH


&&

.AVIATION...VFR WEATHER IS EXPECTED. WE WILL SEE SOME OCCASIONAL MID
LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. WE SHOULD SEE A FEW STORMS BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON FOR SOME MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING TO COME CLOSE OR AFFECT ANY OF OUR TAF SITES. KEYES


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WESTERLY FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW BY MONDAY AS A STORM DEVELOPS ALONG THE WEST COAST.
AHEAD OF IT... A COUPLE OF WEAK SYSTEMS WILL SWEEP ACROSS IDAHO.
THESE WILL BRING SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG WITH A FEW MOUNTAIN
THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AND A LITTLE BETTER COVERAGE ON MONDAY. BOTH
DAYS WILL SEE ISOLATED COVERAGE WITH BRIEF DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY
WINDS. FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK....A VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL
DEVELOP. THE INITIAL LOW ALONG THE COAST IS PUSHED SOUTHWARD AS A
LARGER SYSTEM SETTLES IN FROM CANADA. WE COULD END UP ON THE
SOUTHERN END OF THIS PATTERN OR THE LOW COULD END UP DROPPING FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO BE OVER IDAHO. TAKE YOUR PICK. EACH DAY AND EACH
MODEL RUN HAS SHOWN SOMETHING COMPLETELY DIFFERENT...SO THERE IS
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS. WE SETTLED ON GOING WITH
SOMETHING IN BETWEEN...MEANING THE FORECAST WILL REFLECT A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR MOST AREAS WITH AN EMPHASIS ACROSS THE NORTH.
THE PATTERN VERY WELL MAY END UP BREEZY ACROSS THE AREA AND WE DO
HAVE INCREASING WINDS IN THE FORECAST. RIGHT NOW THOUGH...THE
HUMIDITY SHOULD BE HIGH ENOUGH SO THERE WOULD BE NO CONCERNS FOR
CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS OR RED FLAGS.  KEYES


&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







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