Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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151
FXUS65 KPIH 102022
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
222 PM MDT Thu Aug 10 2017

.SHORT TERM...Moist unstable air remains over southeast Idaho.
Isolated thunderstorms are expected to redevelop this evening and
again on Friday, mainly over the mountain areas. Radar shows
convection now in Cassia County, and there is yet another
disturbance sliding along the Divide. RS

.Long Term...The bulk of the deep moisture over Southeast Idaho
probably will not move east of the state before Saturday morning.
There will likely be some residual moisture in this area for
isolated afternoon thunderstorms even on the weekend. As the new
week begins, models continue to show a more progressive trough
lifting northeast as it moves into the Idaho panhandle and Canada.
Increased southwest flow will encourage valley temperatures
moving back to middle 80s to near 90F range, humidity dropping
back into the 10 to 17 percent range, and potential for afternoon
thunderstorms mostly over the mountains. Afternoon may trend a
little more breezy as well. RS

&&

.Air Stagnation...Saturday brings prospects for more air
circulation and moving some of this moist air off to the east with
a return to westerlies aloft. RS

&&

.AVIATION...A slight chance for afternoon/evening shower and
thunderstorms today but skies will remain VFR. Amendments will be
needed for any outflow boundaries associated with thunderstorms.
Winds otherwise will be below 12 knots. NP/RS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Expect the thunderstorm threat to continue through
Sunday.  Coverage should be mainly isolated and over the mountains.
Friday should have the most widespread coverage in the next three
days.  Humidity remains elevated so think the majority of storms
will be wet today and Friday.  The main risk will be gusty outflow
winds.  The long range models are indicating drying in a more zonal
flow aloft pattern by the middle of next week so expect a lowering
of humidity and perhaps stronger winds as well by next Monday
through the rest of the week.
GK

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$



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