Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
FXUS65 KPIH 172006

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
206 PM MDT Sat Jun 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...A high pressure ridge building over Southeast Idaho
will lead to warmer and drier conditions through Monday. A new
disturbance will enter the Washington coast Monday night and
Tuesday. Enough moisture slips into this area either off the Pacific
or around the edge of a rather strong high building over the desert
southwest for a slight chance of afternoon thunderstorms in the
mountains. RS

.LONG TERM...Tuesday night through next Saturday. The upper level
flow becomes more zonal breaking down the upper level ridge Tuesday
night. Late Tuesday into Wednesday both the GFS and ECMWF models
show a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly over the
mountains across our Southern and Eastern areas. Thursday and Friday
the models then show dry Northwesterly flow. Then the flow becomes
more Southwesterly late Friday into Saturday ahead of an upper level
low. The GFS model shows this low dropping over Montana grazing the
Upper Snake Highlands Saturday. However, the ECMWF model shows this
low barely hitting Northern Idaho and Northern Montana on Sunday.
Expect temperatures to start 5 to 10 degrees above normal early in
the period gradually dropping to near normal to slightly below
normal by Saturday. Wyatt


High confidence forecast of VFR conditions through the end of the
TAF period 18Z Sun as a ridge of high pressure builds across SE
Idaho. No fog/low stratus concerns in model guidance for tonight,
which makes sense given 5-10 kt winds overnight and the dry weather

Looking ahead, the high pressure ridge should allow for dry, partly
sunny, VFR days both Sunday and Monday at all terminals with no
aviation forecast concerns at this time. -KSmith/RS


.Hydrology...Warming temperatures the next couple of days will lead
to some additional melting and run off of high elevation snow that
will find it`s way into local stream and rivers. Some local increase
in river levels is expected. Otherwise, water receding and or drying
up is slow, but making progress. RS



$$ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.