Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 140940

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
240 AM MST Sat Jan 14 2017

.SHORT TERM...Today through Monday...Quite a cold morning for
Challis, Stanley and Island Park with temperatures below negative
20 degrees. As an added bonus, temperatures at Challis won`t
recover into double digits again today; they did not yesterday
either. We should see some better warming in Stanley and Island
Park; however. There may be a spot or two in our area today that
reaches the 32 degree mark and it will fall south or east of the
Snake River Plain, otherwise once again fairly temperate
temperatures in the 20s are forecast today. Perhaps a few
locations tonight will see some relief to the bitter chill but it
is going to be difficult for it to feel like it. Any decent relief
will not come until the middle of next week when moisture returns
to the area. On the bright side, the forecast remains dry and
precip-free. Patchy fog continues in the overnight/early morning
forecast today and again tomorrow night/Monday morning across the
Snake Plain and in the valleys across Southeast Idaho.


.LONG TERM...Tuesday through next Saturday...We are seeing some
trends that may be good for those still dealing with issues from
our last big event. Right now, it appears that the length of time
for the heavier precipitation MAY be getting shorter, more likely
just Wednesday through Thursday. Snowfall amounts will be less in
some mountain locations. That said, we are still looking at large
amounts of mountain snow and mix at lower elevations.
Unfortunately, the brunt of the moisture will fall in the
Sawtooths and Stanley Basin areas. These areas will very likely
see over 1 foot of new (and sometimes wet) snow along with gusty
winds, meaning adding to snowloads due to the snow itself and
windloading. Blowing and drifting of any snow on the ground is
likely. Outside of those areas, snowfall amounts will be much less
it appears especially at lower elevations where we see snow
changing to rain and then back on Thursday at some point. Even in
areas with less snow, any new snowfall and wind will just add to
any ongoing impacts. Where we see rain, we will again be dealing
with rain and snowmelt issues. Beyond Thursday, the models are
trying to show more "showers" vs. widespread or more consolidated
waves of precipitation. That`s is because the firehose of moisture
gets pushed south of us. We remain with an overall trough over
the West, with means we should cool back down a bit. Keyes


.AVIATION...VFR weather continues through the weekend. The potential
for patchy fog and stratus will persist daily, although confidence
is low that any single airport/TAF site will be affected. IF it does
occur, expect to drop to at least MVFR but more likely IFR or worse.


An Areal Flood Warning is in effect for Cassia and a portion of
Minidoka county for ongoing flooding concerns. Road closures are
still being reported.

Below freezing temperatures continue in the forecast leading to
risk for ice jam flood concerns on rivers and small streams
across Southeast Idaho. The area is not expected to receive any
new rain or snowfall through Monday. A new storm system will bring
precipitation and slightly temperatures to SE Idaho at the
earliest late Tuesday lasting through Thursday, with the heaviest
and most widespread precipitation expected Wednesday.

A Flood Warning continues at Antelope Creek in Darlington due to an ice
jam on this creek along with runoff from rainfall has resulted in
some homes being flooded in Darlington.

The Flood Advisory for the Challis River Bridge south of Challis
will continue at the request of the BLM and local law enforcement.
Citizens are urged to avoid this area.



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