Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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000
FXUS65 KPIH 202040
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
140 PM MST TUE JAN 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SHORT TERM PATTERN
REMAINS GENERALLY UNCHANGED NEXT COUPLE DAYS. AMPLIFIED UPPER
RIDGE WITH SFC HIGH CONTINUES THROUGH GREAT BASIN INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. ENERGY MOVING INTO PACNW BEGINS TO FLATTEN RIDGE THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CLOUD COVER/MID LEVEL MOISTURE SPILLING
OVER THE RIDGE INTO EAST IDAHO THURSDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL
INVERSIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH COMBINATION OF STRATUS AND FOG
OVERNIGHT AND SOME BREAK UP POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. AT THIS
TIME DO NOT BELIEVE THE ENERGY ARRIVING THURSDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE
ENOUGH DYNAMICS TO MIX OUT THE LOWER LEVELS. MODEL SOUNDINGS
MAINTAIN INVERSIONS INTO FRIDAY MORNING EVEN WITH INCREASING
SATURATION AT MID LEVELS. WILL HOLD OFF ON INTRODUCING ANY
PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME THURSDAY NIGHT THOUGH A SLIM
POSSIBILITY OF SEEDER/FEEDER MECHANISM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY THROUGH CENTRAL MTNS AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES.
DMH

.LONG TERM...
FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REBUILDS TO WEST OVER THE WEEKEND AND
PUSHES OVER IDAHO EARLY NEXT WEEK.   MAY SEE SOME LIGHT MOUNTAIN
SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE UPPER SNAKE RIVER HIGHLANDS FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.  GFS IS A
BIT QUICKER THAN THE EUROPEAN MODEL PUSHING RIDGE EAST AND ALLOWING
MOISTURE BACK INTO IDAHO ON SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ON TUESDAY.  FOR NOW
BEGAN TO INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES A BIT TUESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR LATE JANUARY
BY SATURDAY AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK.   WITH THE RIDGE COULD
SEE SOME VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING AS WELL.
GK

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD STRATUS IN SNAKE RIVER PLAIN HAS BEEN SLOWLY
ERODING THIS AFTERNOON WITH IFR CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MVFR OR VFR
AT BYI...PIH AND IDA.   EXPECT A RETURN TO MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS
IN STRATUS AND FOG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WHERE IT HAS DISSIPATED AT
BYI...PIH AND IDA WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AT
SUN.  EXPECT STRATUS AND FOG TO AGAIN DISSIPATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AT THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN SITES.
GK


&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






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