Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 250853
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
253 AM MDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...IDAHO CONTINUES UNDER A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. MONSOON MOISTURE IS SEEN STREAMING INTO
SOUTHERN NV/UT THIS MORNING AS THE UPPER HIGH SETTLES IN OVER THE
FOUR-CORNERS AREA. EXPECT ANOTHER WARM DAY TODAY WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S. WE MAY HAVE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO
TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE SURGE OF
MONSOON MOISTURE IS STILL ON TRACK TO IMPACT THE SOUTHEASTERN
HIGHLANDS LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. MOS GUIDANCE
IS SUGGESTING TEMPS 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER AS A RESULT. MODELS
ARE FAVORING ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO OUR EAST AND WE KEEP A
SUFFICIENT STREAM OF MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. WHILE
MODELS KEEP US FAIRLY DRY FOR THE WEEKEND...WE CONTINUE UNDER A
STEADY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL BE
SITUATED OFF THE PACIFIC COAST. STILL KEEPING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. HINSBERGER
&&

.AVIATION...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
EASTERN HIGHLANDS...OTHERWISE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH LIGHT WINDS. SOME
SMOKE STILL AROUND BUT NOT HAVING A BIG IMPACT ON THE TAF SITES.
WEDNESDAY...DISTURBANCE MOVING UP FROM ARIZONA TO SOUTHEAST CORNER OF
IDAHO WILL BRING OVER CAST SKIES...A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND
CARIBOU HIGHLANDS. MVFR CEILINGS WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT KPIH. RS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WE STILL HAVE SOME MARGINAL HAINES INDEX OF SIX
LINGERING BETWEEN CHALLIS...SALMON AND LEADORE AREA. THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA IS HOLDING AT MODERATE LEVELS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED OVER THE BEVERHEAD MOUNTAINS BETWEEN
LEADORE AND MONIDA PASS...ALSO NEAR DRIGGS AND THE CARIBOU
HIGHLANDS. MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS TODAY. WEDNESDAY...A DISTURBANCE MOVES
UP FROM ARIZONA WITH SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE TO BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND CARIBOU HIGHLANDS. OVERCAST
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO HELP HOLD THUNDER AND LIGHTNING ACTIVITY TO
JUST ISOLATED LEVELS. BEST CHANCE OF A WETTING RAIN WILL BE EAST OF
A LINE FROM HOLBROOK TO WAYAN. UP TO .20 INCH PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD MAKE THAT HAPPEN. RS

&&


.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$



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