Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 151348
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
750 AM MDT WED OCT 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRI NIGHT. UPDATED POPS AND SKY
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE PERIOD TO BETTER ALIGN WITH NEIGHBORS.
NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS WRN OREGON AT THIS TIME
WITH CONSIDERABLE MID AND UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDINESS SPREADING ACROSS SE
IDAHO. PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE FRONT WHICH
IS POSITIONED OVER THE WRN IDAHO BORDER AND IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP
INTO THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN BETWEEN NOON AND 2 PM TODAY. STRONG
SOUTHERLY GAP WINDS CURRENTLY NOTED IN THE TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN
THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AND SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS. SEE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION BELOW. HUSTON

TODAYS FRONT IS RIGHT ON TIME ON SATELLITE...AN MAIN FORECAST
PROBLEM CONTINUES TO BE THE WIND SPEEDS. ALTHOUGH NAM MOS GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO FORECAST WELL BELOW ADVISORY STRENGTH WIND...THE LOCAL
WIND STUDY...USING NAM DATA...CONTINUES TO INDICATE A WIND ADVISORY
TO BE NECESSARY. THE ONLY INGREDIENT TO THE SCHEME THAT IS WEAK IS
THE 700MB WIND SPEED...WITH EVERYTHING ELSE RATHER STRONG...8.8MB
GRADIENT FROM ONE END OF SOUTHERN IDAHO TO THE OTHER...66KT 500MB
WIND...MODERATE TO STRONG COLD ADVECTION. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY
THE GFS WHICH HAS KEPT ITS STRONG WIND FORECAST FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
THUS HAVE CONTINUED THE WIND ADVISORY. THE AFTERNOON PASSAGE MEANS
THAT THE COLD AIR MASS WILL NOT BE IN PLACE UNTIL TONIGHT AND SO THE
BIG COOL-DOWN WILL OCCUR BETWEEN TODAY AND THU. WITH MUCH CLEARER
SKIES AND A QUICK LET-DOWN TO THE WIND...STRONG WARMING BY
FRIDAY...THOUGH NOT TO TODAYS WARMTH. MESSICK

.LONG TERM...SAT THROUGH TUE NIGHT. GFS AND ECMWF...AFTER A COUPLE
OF DAYS OF LITTLE CHANGE TO THEIR OWN SOLUTIONS...ARE NOW COMING
TOGETHER WITH THE GFS MUCH DRIER AND THE ECMWF NOT QUITE AS DRY
AND AS WARM AS PREVIOUS RUNS. SO HAVE CLEARED UP THE SKIES AND
CONTINUED THE RATHER LOW POPS DURING THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES STAY
ABOVE NORMAL FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS...SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR LOWS.
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION OR WIND EVIDENT. MESSICK
&&

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
A STRAY SHOWER IS POSSIBLE NEAR KSUN. OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS FOR
THE OTHER TAF SITES. EXPECT GUSTY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE WITH GUSTS TO
40KTS POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS. VALLE
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON FOR MANY AREAS...WITH GUSTS OF
30 TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. EXPECT DRIER WEATHER AND LIGHTER WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. VALLE
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING
IDZ017-020-021.
&&

$$









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