Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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964
FXUS65 KPIH 200854
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
254 AM MDT SAT AUG 20 2016

.SHORT TERM...Today through Monday. High pressure builds over Idaho
this weekend. This will keep us dry and allow temperatures to
quickly heat up. We should some wind on Sunday later in the day and
evening hours, but impacts outside of the fire weather community
look to be minimal. We should some 90s across the lower valleys. The
next storm moves through the northern Rockies and Great basin on
Monday.  The forecast follows the previous version and leaning on a
limited return of monsoon moisture for some showers and
thunderstorms. Right now, it`s not a big chance and mainly across
the southern highlands. The GFS wants to bring some storms across
the Snake Plain Monday evening while the ECMWF confines things to
the southern highlands. The latter area are where we have any
mention of storm coverage. Of note, the NAM is currently much drier
but also shows the potential for a few storms possibly near Monida
and Island Park as well as along the Utah border. A stronger cold
front arrives on Monday and will produce more wind. It`s possible
that the Arco Desert and central mountains may reach the low end
threshold for a wind advisory and most certainly affect the fire
weather community. Keyes

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

A cold front will finish moving through the area Tuesday morning.
Models are showing somewhat better chances for isolated showers as
the front moves through, mainly across the southeast highlands.
Another front will arrive on Thursday. This may produce a few
showers across the central Idaho mountains and the upper Snake
highlands. Expect cool temperatures during the extended forecast,
comparable to our temperatures for Today and Saturday.

Valle

&&

.AVIATION...High pressure will produce light winds with vfr
conditions today.

Valle

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions return this week as high pressure
builds across the region. We will be looking at poor overnight
recovery at least through Sunday night because of this. Winds pick
up some Sunday afternoon and evening with some places reaching 25-
30mph for gusts across the central mountains, Arco Desert and Upper
Snake Highlands. We will see Haines rapidly increasing to 5 & 6 as
well. That should spell and increase in fire behavior especially in
those zones. Will it be enough for Red Flag conditions?  At the
moment, we will take another look later today and see if a watch or
warning is needed. Things get a little more complicated Monday as
the next low deepens and moves across the Northern Rockies and Great
Basin. Most of the models insist on some amount of monsoon moisture
returning for isolated dry storms across the south. Across the
northern 2/3rds, it looks pretty breezy with dry air still in place.
That may be the more likely day for Red Flag conditions across a
good chunk of the Snake Plain, central mountains and Upper Snake
Highlands. Beyond that, it looks like we may return a cooler pattern
from the north with some occasional showers or storms. Keyes

&&

.PIH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$



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