Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 252015
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
215 PM MDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY
MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH DROPPING INTO NORTHERN NEVADA. SO FAR...CLOUD COVER HAS
LIMITED DAY TIME HEATING AND LIGHTING ACTIVITY WITH THUNDERSTORMS AS
WELL. THERE IS A DRY SLOT SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY TO OUR WEST AND
A DEVELOPING 300MB WIND MAX ON THE DOWN STREAM SIDE. IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS WILL BE WATCHING CASSIA COUNTY AREA FOR ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MODERATE
VERTICAL SHEAR WITH A LITTLE HELICITY TO POTENTIALLY SUPPORT A FEW
STORM CELLS WITH ROTATION. OVERNIGHT...AIRMASS SHOULD STABILIZE
LEAVING JUST SOME RAIN SHOWERS. LOW MOVES FROM NEVADA INTO UTAH AND
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THE LOW BUT ENDS UP
NEAR THE SOUTHERN BORDER WHERE SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
COULD DEVELOP. THERE IS A LITTLE SUPPORT FOR ISOLATED CELLS IN THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY A
SOMEWHAT FLAT RIDGE WILL PROVIDE A FEW DRY DAYS. BY SATURDAY...A NEW
TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST. JUST FOR FUN THE GFS MODEL
TRIES TO ENTRAIN SOME MOISTURE FROM BY THEN FORMER HURRICANE MARIE
IN SOUTHWEST FLOW RIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. OTHER MODELS
DO NOT REALLY SUPPORT THIS IDEA. RS
&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BRING SHOWERS AND MOSTLY
VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING. MVFR CIGS/VIS MAY BE POSSIBLE DURING HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON STATION. LOWER STRATUS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT IS
NOT VERY LIKELY...FOR ALL TAF SITES TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
WYATT
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING. EXPECT RESIDUAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
IN THE MOUNTAINS IN OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS ON TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK EXPECT A DRYING AND WARMING
TREND. EXPECT ANOTHER SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND BRINGING BREEZY TO
MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
WYATT
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$







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