Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 130908

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
308 AM MDT Fri Oct 13 2017

.SHORT TERM...Today through Sun night. Autumn snow storm has
entered the central Idaho mountains and should bring snow
eventually during the day today to the floor of the Snake River
plain. Amounts below 6500ft will be light, but will be
accumulating during the day with some melting in the middle of the
day, but conditions will turn colder for the mid- to late
afternoon as the cold front that is generating this event passes
through. Light snow threat continues into the evening, but the
focus will be more the mountains south and east of the Snake
River. Expect widespread 1 to 3 inches in the mountains and
highlands, with central mountains above 7000 ft receiving 3 to 7
inches. In the Snake River plain, expect less than an inch, except
for benches around Pocatello where it will be more in the 1 to 3
inch range. Weak flurries will remain for Sat morning in the
eastern and southeastern highlands, with snow ending everywhere in
eastern Idaho by noon Sat. This leaves the wind, which will be
near Wind Advisory, but expected to remain just below those
thresholds. The wind is expected to kick up dust in just-harvested
fields, producing dust clouds that will hamper driving on
Interstates 15, 84, and 86 in the Snake River plain. The worst of
it should be in the areas north of Idaho Falls, so there is a
Blowing Dust Advisory in effect as the wind crosses the 20 mph
sustained threshold in that area.

By Sat afternoon, skies will rapidly clear, and expect a chilly
Sat night with temperatures in the teens and low 20s for the
Snake River plain. Sunny skies for Sun though will cause a rapid
warm up with the considerably calmer wind. Overnight lows Sun
night will warm slightly.


.LONG TERM...Mon through Thu night. High pressure remains in
control for most of this period. A shift in the upper level wind
from west to southwest will cause a strong warming from Sun to Mon
with temperatures getting near to above normal on Mon. This upper
level ridge will not last through the period, however. On Thu
afternoon, it appears as though this upper level ridge will break
down, spreading rain and high elevation snow into central and
eastern Idaho.


.AVIATION...A low pressure trough with attending snow and lower
valley rain showers will advance through the region today exiting
east across the Wyoming border late Saturday morning. Model cross
sections suggest low VFR CIGS developing at the KBYI, KPIH, and KIDA
terminals today possibly dipping into MVFR category overnight as
temps cool and snow levels lower to valley floors. For KSUN, it
looks like CIGS will drop to MVFR levels today in -RASN. Mixed
results between the models for this evening but at least after
midnight improvement is expected as the trough axis sweeps through
the area. As for KDIJ, low VFR CIGS are anticipated throughout the
day before tumbling into IFR and possibly LIFR conditions overnight
as the main precipitation band takes shape over the SE mountains. A
return to VFR conditions are expected for all terminals by Saturday
afternoon. Huston

.FIRE WEATHER...A low pressure trough with attending snow and lower
valley rain showers will advance through the region today exiting
east across the Wyoming border late Saturday morning. Accumulating
snowfall is expected within the mountains before drier conditions
work into the region under NW flow Saturday afternoon. Dry and
gradually warmer daytime temps are expected early next week before
the next Pacific storm system moves onshore Wednesday night and
Thursday for a wet and windy latter half of the week. Huston

Blowing Dust Advisory from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening
for IDZ020.


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