Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 170818

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
218 AM MDT Thu Aug 17 2017

.DISCUSSION...A few clouds are hanging around the Southeastern
Highlands and around Island Park this morning as a weak upper
disturbance drops in from the northwest. Otherwise, expecting
mostly clear skies through Saturday night while upper ridging
keeps us under dry and stable conditions. The upper ridge will
shift east while upper low circulation develops over California.
The low will act to draw in some monsoon moisture into the area
beginning Sunday. This pattern will continue through Tuesday
night, offering the possibility of afternoon/evening showers and
thunderstorms developing over Southeast Idaho. Models bring
another surge of moisture as the upper low fills and lifts
northeastward across the Great Basin Wednesday. ECMWF suggests
a more eastward track of the lifting trough, but still produces
plenty of precip across the region Wednesday and Thursday.

Skies for the eclipse will generally be partly cloudy, but there
exists a good deal of uncertainty regarding cloud cover and
precipitation. Thunderstorms will be more favored after the
eclipse has passed, but areas of mid and high clouds may obscure
viewing in some areas along the path of totality. Hinsberger


.AVIATION...Dry VFR conditions will continue through tonight. Winds
at higher elevations and through portions of the Snake Plain are
expected to increase this afternoon, with sustained speeds around 15
kts KBYI/KPIH, slightly lower at KIDA. Gusts this afternoon and
early evening could reach 20-25kts. DMH


.FIRE WEATHER...Dry and warm conditions will continue through
Saturday. Expect breezy conditions during the afternoon and early
evening today and Friday through the Snake Plain and higher
elevations. Gusts around 25 mph are likely, especially today. Dry
humdities along with increase Haines indices will be a factor, but
the combination remains just below critical thresholds. Thus will
hold off on headlines for today. Upper ridge strengthens with
gradual shift to southwest flow aloft by the weekend. Temps should
be the warmest over the weekend but winds not currently expected to
be as breezy. The southwest flow allows moisture to creep north into
East Idaho Sunday for threat of afternoon thunderstorms Sunday and
Monday. The threat increases Tuesday and beyond. DMH



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