Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 162004

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
204 PM MDT Thu Mar 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sunday. The last of the precip is
moving thru the eastern highlands this aftn...and should be gone
by eve. The strong southwest winds will also diminish this eve. Fri
looks warmer and dry as upper ridging builds back up over the
northern Rockies. The next storm system moves into the Pac NW on
Fri...with light precip spreading into the central mtns by Sat
morn. Precip slowly progresses across the fcst area on Sat...
reaching the southeast corner by Sat eve. Best chances will be in
the central mtns...spreading to the rest of the mtns Sat night.
Snow levels will be high accumulations limited to the
higher elevations. The valley locations can expect only light
rain. Precip becomes widespread over the southern and eastern
highlands Sun morn...but diminishes elsewhere during the day.
Temps will cool again on Sun. Hedges

.LONG TERM...Sunday night through next Thursday. Building upper
ridge is suggested by both GFS and ECMWF for the start of the work
week. GFS favors continuing precip along the ID/UT border suggestive
of a warm front lifting northward. ECMWF is more widespread with
precip, extending the heavier precipitation into the Central
Mountains and Upper Snake Highlands. Warmer temperatures will ride
into the area Monday and Tuesday under the continued influence of
moist southwesterly flow aloft. Models show somewhat of a break in
the precip during the day on Tuesday, but show increasing chances of
significant precip Tuesday night as a shortwave rides northeastward
into the ridge. A second wave will impact the area Wednesday night
into Thursday, though details remain a bit sketchy as far as
placement of precip. Stuck with a model blend in the extended
periods. Hinsberger


.AVIATION...Clearing trends seen on vis imagery this morning with a
few mountain wave clouds. Winds are breezy as the low levels begin
to mix out with gusts up to around 30 kts possible this afternoon
across the Snake Plain. DIJ continues to see some light rainfall and
may see low VFR ceilings this afternoon, and may occasionally see
MVFR ceilings. Winds will subside as we decouple this evening.


Flood Watch through Friday afternoon for IDZ017-019-021>025-031.


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