Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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000
FXUS65 KPIH 250900
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
300 AM MDT MON APR 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WED NIGHT. PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING WILL KEEP SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR TODAY
AND TONIGHT...A LOW TO THE SOUTH WILL MOVE CLOSER TODAY. THIS
WILL KEEP A DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW EVEN AT THE SURFACE FOR MUCH OF
TODAY. THIS IS BRINGING IN ENOUGH COLD AIR TO GENERATE SNOW AT
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5500 FEET. HOWEVER...AMOUNTS DURING ANY TWELVE
HOUR PERIOD ARE BELOW THE 6 INCH THRESHOLD. WILL LIKELY UPDATE THE
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THE UNUSUAL LATE SNOWFALL FOR THE
MOUNTAINS. THE OTHER FACTOR IS THE NORTHEAST WIND OVER THE
AMERICAN FALLS RESERVOIR IS EXPECTED TO EXCEED 10KT FOR SEVERAL
HOURS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHEAST END OF THE
RESERVOIR. THIS IS ENOUGH FOR A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE
AFTERNOON. THIS FIRST LOW LINGERS OVER TONIGHT...AND BRINGS ENOUGH
COLD AIR ALOFT TO TRIGGER NOT ONLY THE SNOW...BUT ALSO SOME
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...MAINLY THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST
AREA...BUT ALSO THE NORTHWEST CORNER. SAME THING HAPPENS TO A
LESSER EXTENT TUE AND WED. FOR TUE AND WED...WEAK TROUGHING COMES
IN FROM THE NORTH. THE BEST DAY FOR PRECIPITATION IS DEFINITELY
TODAY...AND HAVE KEPT THE HIGH POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS...EVEN INTO TUE MORNING. THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO
SHIFT BRIEFLY TONIGHT...BUT REVERT TO THE NORTH AGAIN AND BE
STRONG ENOUGH DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON ON TUE FOR ANOTHER LAKE
WIND ADVISORY...BUT WITH LARGE DIRECTION SHIFTS GOING ON FOR THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COLD TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL START A
SLOW WARM-UP AS CLOUD COVER AND NORTHERLY FLOW DIFFICULT TO END.
MESSICK

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER TROF/CLOSED LOW DOMINATED PATTERN
THRU THE WEEKEND. THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE MARKED BY SCT AFTN
SHOWERS...WITH DECREASING COVERAGE OVERNIGHT. BY MON...UPPER RIDGING
PUSHES INTO THE PAC NW...RESULTING IN DRIER CONDITIONS. TEMPS STAY
SLIGHTLY ON THE COOL SIDE THRU THE PERIOD. HEDGES

&&

.AVIATION...ANOTHER UPPER LOW DROPPING INTO THE GREAT BASIN WILL
SPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED LATE
THIS AFTN AND OVERNIGHT. HEDGES

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
IDZ021.

&&

$$



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