Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 111549
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
949 AM MDT FRI JUL 11 2014

.UPDATE...MORNING UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS SHOW A MOIST FLOW HEADING
TOWARDS OUR SE CORNER OF IDAHO FROM UTAH. CONVECTION IS FIRING IN
FRANKLIN AND BEAR LAKE COUNTIES AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE INTO
THIS EVENING. BASED ON PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS THE POTENTIAL FOR
A HEAVY RAIN SITUATION EXISTS IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE
STATE. IF A SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORM LINGERS OVER A PARTICULAR
AREA RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 1 TO 1.25 INCHES POSSIBLE FOR ANY
STORM LASTING LONGER THAN 1 HOUR. WE WILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE
FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL. OVER REST OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN IDAHO THE
THREAT FOR AFTERNOON STORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS COULD REACH UP TO .75 INCH FOR ANY SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORM. WIND IMPACTS FROM ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD REACH 45
MPH IN OUTFLOWS. PRESTON


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 AM MDT FRI JUL 11 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MONSOON MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
TO RETURN TO IDAHO TODAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK UP. THIS
WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS AND TSTMS THIS AFTN AND EVE...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS. MONSOON MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN THRU SATURDAY FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY AFTN/EVE
SHOWERS AND TSTMS. BY SUNDAY THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES WESTWARD...
CUTTING OFF MOST OF THE MOISTURE.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A LITTLE MOISTURE RETURNS ON
MONDAY...FUELING SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE FCST AREA BOTH MON AND TUE. BY WED...THE UPPER RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN. THIS CUTS OFF THE MOISTURE FLOW...RESULTING IN DRY
CONDITIONS THRU FRI. HEDGES

AVIATION...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH...BUT
WILL NOT BE ENOUGH COVERAGE TO PREVENT -TSRA ACTIVITY. STILL ENOUGH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
-TSRA DURING THE AFTERNOON...THUS EXPECT TO KEEP VCTS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS IN EACH TAF. MAIN FOCUS WILL BE AREA
SOUTH OF KPIH. OUTSIDE OF -TSRA...DO NOT EXPECT WIND TO BE A FACTOR
BUT IT SHOULD BE GUSTY AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
MESSICK

FIRE WEATHER...UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE STATE
THROUGH SUN NIGHT.  THIS RIDGE IS ALLOWING MOISTURE TO MOVE UP FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. THE MOISTURE AND HEATING IS PRODUCING ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LOW PRESSURE ARRIVING TUE/TUE NIGHT SHOULD KEEP THE THUNDERSTORMS
GOING...BUT THE FOCUS WILL BE MORE OF THE SALMON-CHALLIS AND THE
TARGHEE FORESTS RATHER THAN THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA.
BY WED/WED NIGHT IS THE THUNDERSTORMS SUBSIDE AS THE HIGH RETURNS
AND DRIER NORTHWEST AIR FLOW KEEPS THE SOUTHERN MOISTURE PLUME FROM
RETURNING...POSSIBLY THROUGH INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND. MESSICK

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







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