Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 270336
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
936 PM MDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SHIFTING INTO UTAH THIS EVENING
KEEPING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVE ALONG THE UTAH / IDAHO
BORDER. UPDATED THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST FOR SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR BURLEY TO THE SOUTHEAST CORNER
AS THEIR IS ENOUGH STRENGTH WITH THE SYSTEM ALONG WITH COOL AIR
ALOFT TO SUPPORT CONVECTION. IMPACTS INCLUDE BRIEF HEAVY RAINS,
SMALL HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

PRESTON


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 216 PM MDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
CARIBOU AND SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AS THE LOW MOVES FROM NEVADA
INTO UTAH THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THERE IS RATHER WEEK
SUPPORT FOR ANY ISOLATED CELLS IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN ON WEDNESDAY..LEAVING A VERY
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER NEAR BEAR LAKE IN THE AFTERNOON. BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON A NEW DISTURBANCE ENTERS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND RE ESTABLISHES UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE CENTRAL;
MOUNTAINS. THIS RESULTS IN A COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE SNAKE
PLAIN BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. POST FRONTAL TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY
EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 10 TO 12 DEGREES COLDER. THE GFS LOOKS TO BE
THE COLDER OF THE MODELS. FORECAST IS A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER IN
FAVOR OF THE ECMWF. RS

AVIATION...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. INSTABILITY AND
RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR VICINITY THUNDERSTORM MAINLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS FOR ALL TAF SITES MID AFTERNOON TODAY THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. EXPECT DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
WYATT

FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN OVER OUR AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY. EXPECT GRADUALLY DRYING AND WARMING THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A COLD FRONT WITH
MODERATE WINDS...MODERATE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. WYATT

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







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