Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 020824
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
224 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE RIDGE IS IN THE PROCESS
OF SHIFTING WEST AND ALLOWING A DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP
OVER IDAHO. DON`T EXPECT THIS TO LAST MORE THAN ABOUT 24 HOURS AND
MOISTURE STARTS CREEPING BACK INTO THE STATE LATER FRIDAY. WE
SHOULD BE DRY TODAY THOUGH WITH SOME HIGHER CLOUDS. THE MODELS ARE
PERSISTENT IN DEVELOPING ISOLATED STORMS IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
FROM AROUND MACKAY TO GILMORE SUMMIT. WE DID PUT THAT IN THE
FORECAST...WITH SOME ANTICIPATION OF THOSE STORMS BRIEFLY MOVING
ACROSS THE ARCO DESERT BEFORE DYING OFF. OF COURSE...THAT COULD
CHANGE IF WE GET AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO KICK OFF STORMS FARTHER
SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE PLAIN. ANYTHING THAT FORMS WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND A BRIEF DOWNPOUR.

THE MODELS ARE STILL STRUGGLING WITH SOME OF THE FINER POINTS IN
THE FORECAST EVEN AS WE HIT THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE RIDGE TRIES
TO BUILD BACK NORTHWARD BUT SHOULD NOT MAKE IT VERY FAR AS A LOW
DEEPENS ACROSS CANADA AND THE NORTHERN U.S. WE END UP WITH A
WESTERLY FLOW THAT DOES PULL IN MORE MOISTURE FOR EASTERN IDAHO.
WE ARE LOOKING FOR ISOLATED STORMS FOR LATER SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. WE CAN`T RULE OUT SOMETHING FORMING
OVER THE SNAKE PLAIN ESPECIALLY IF ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES DEVELOP.
IT DOES LOOK BREEZY ON THE FOURTH...WHICH MEANS YOU WILL NEED TO
MINDFUL WITH CAMPFIRES AND FIREWORKS WHERE THEY ARE STILL LEGAL.
FOR SUNDAY...THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
ACROSS THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS AND A WEAK WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE
LOW PUSHES INTO WYOMING DURING THE DAY. MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS
FORECAST ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE VERY
WARM WITH VALLEY HIGHS IN THE MID 90S TO AROUND 100 BOTH DAYS. TO
FIND ANY 70S OR 80S YOU WILL NEED TO HEAD WAY UP IN THE MOUNTAINS.
SUNDAY WILL BEGIN A COOLING TREND...BUT ONLY ABOUT 5 DEGREES
COOLER VS PREVIOUS DAYS.  KEYES

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. NEXT WEEK LOOKS MORE
ACTIVE IN TERMS OF DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WE END IN A
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN...WITH GENERAL LOW PRESSURE SAGGING SOUTH INTO
MONTANA AND NORTHERN IDAHO AND ANOTHER LOW OFFSHORE OF
CALIFORNIA. A WEAK RIDGE AXIS REMAINS OVERHEAD...ALLOWING FOR
MOISTURE TO KEEP STREAMING INTO THE STATE ON WEST TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW. THERE HAS BEEN A LACK OF CONFIDENCE ONCE WE GET PASSED
MONDAY ON HOW MUCH THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WE`LL SEE...WHICH SHOWS
UP WITH A LOWERED CHANCE IN THE FORECAST. IF THE CURRENT TRENDS IN
THE MODELS CONTINUE THOUGH...EXPECT THOSE PERCENTAGES TO QUICKLY
GO UP IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ONE THING THIS WILL BRING IS A BREAK
IN THE EXTREME HEAT...ALTHOUGH WE WILL SEE BE A HANDFUL OF DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE. KEYES

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES TODAY. FOR
FRIDAY...A MINOR EMBEDDED WAVE MAY TRIGGER AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
OVR THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF KSUN...BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THE TAF
SITE. RS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTS AGAIN TODAY.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LITTLE BIT OF MOISTURE HAS BEEN ABLE TO
SLIP INTO IDAHO AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN.
FOR FRIDAY...THERE WILL BE A MINOR EMBEDDED WAVE IN THE WESTERLIES
THAT COULD TRIGGER AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVER THE MOUNTAINS
BETWEEN KETCHUM AND ARCO...AND LATE AFTERNOON NEAR SALMON FALLS
RESERVOIR. FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY...OUR SUSPICIONS ARE HOLDING
COURSE. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL RECENTER CLOSE TO THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA MAKING IT POSSIBLE FOR WARM MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR TO
ADVANCE INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CARIBOU HIGHLANDS. IN FACT POCATELLO
MAY NOT BE SPARED FROM AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM. THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL SEE SOME ISOLATED STORM CELLS AS WELL.
ALSO...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO TRAIL SOUTH THROUGH
MONTANA INTO CENTRAL IDAHO SATURDAY AFTERNOON LOOKS ON TRACK. THIS
WILL BRING SOME WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS
POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 30 MPH. THE STRONGEST WINDS BETWEEN CRATERS OF
THE MOON AND BLACKFOOT. RS

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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