Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 072012
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
112 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN AREA OF FOG AND
STRATUS REFUSES TO BUDGE ACROSS THE UPPER SNAKE PLAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. RIGHT NOW...IT IS UNLIKELY THAT IT WILL FULLY DISSIPATE
BUT THERE COULD BE SOME SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT BEFORE SUNSET. THIS
UNUSUALLY STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES BUILDING ACROSS
THE WEST. THAT WILL SERVE TO STRENGTHEN VALLEY INVERSIONS THROUGH
MIDWEEK. EXPECT MORE STRATUS AND/OR FREEZING FOG FOR MANY VALLEY
LOCATIONS. WHILE WE COULD SEE SOME IMPROVING CONDITIONS EACH
AFTERNOON ALONG THE EDGES OF ANY STRATUS FILLED VALLEY OR
PLAIN...IT WOULD BE VERY SHORT LIVED AND FILL BACK IN AFTER DARK.
WHERE THE INVERSIONS HOLD...HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 20S TO MID
30S. IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND ANYWHERE THAT THE INVERSION
BREAKS...TEMPERATURES WILL SHOOT INTO THE 40S. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE
SOME MOUNTAIN WILL PUSH PAST 50 DEGREES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WE
ARE STILL CONCERNED ABOUT RAPID SNOWMELT AND IMPACTS RELATED TO
THAT INCLUDING POSSIBLE MINOR FLOODING. AT NIGHT...MOST AREAS WILL
DROP BELOW FREEZING. HOWEVER...IT IS VERY POSSIBLE THAT SOME
MID/UPPER SLOPES ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS MAY NOT AND DROP TO ONLY AROUND 34-35 DEGREES. KEYES

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WEST IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DOMINANT THRU FRI. INVERSION CONDITIONS
WILL RESULT IN NIGHTTIME LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG IN VALLEYS. TEMPS
WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.  BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF BRING AN UPPER TROF INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
SATURDAY...BUT THE GFS MOVES IT THRU IDAHO MUCH QUICKER. ONLY
LOOKING FOR LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW AT THIS POINT ON ACTUAL TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS
SYSTEM.  CURRENT TREND THEN IS TO DEVELOP A RIDGE BACK OVER THE
WESTERN STATES WITH BOTH GFS AND EC MODELS TRENDING SIMILAR WITH
LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK.

PRESTON/HEDGES

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR/IFR CIGS/FOG IN THE UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN LINGER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT THAT TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW...
ESPECIALLY WITH KIDA.  POSSIBLE CLOUD DECK TO REDEVELOP OVER KPIH
OVERNIGHT SO HAVE ADDED THIS INFO INTO THE TAF. PRESTON

&&

.AIR STAGNATION...WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE IN PLACE NEXT
WEEK...WE ARE EXPECTING THAT AIR QUALITY WILL WORSEN ESPECIALLY IN
VALLEYS WHERE LITTLE TO NO MIXING OCCURS. WHILE WEATHER CONDITIONS
MAY MODERATE LATE IN THE WEEK...IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF AIR
QUALITY RAPIDLY IMPROVES. THE PATTERN LATE IN THE WEEK MAY NOT BE
ENOUGH TO COMPLETELY SCOUR OUT THE DIRTY AIR. KEYES


&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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