Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 260251
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
851 PM MDT MON APR 25 2016

.UPDATE...DEEP UPPER LOW SHIFTING THROUGH SOUTHERN UTAH THIS
EVENING. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WORKING ACROSS EAST IDAHO. NUMEROUS
SHOWERS STILL IN PLACE MAINLY THROUGH SNAKE PLAIN AND SOUTHERN
HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS. SURFACE CONVERGENCE LINE BETWEEN POCATELLO
AND BURLEY HELPING TO HOLD LINE OF SHOWERS IN THIS AREA.
CONVECTION SLOWLY DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND SHIFTING FOCUS SOUTH.
MODELS CONTINUE DECREASING TREND AND MAINLY OVER NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. SURFACE LOW SHIFTS EAST WHICH SHOULD KEEP GUSTY NORTHEAST
GRADIENT IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. HAVE ALREADY LET
THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY GO FOR THE EVENING WITH THE THOUGHT THAT
THE WINDS HAD BECOME MORE CONVECTIVELY INFLUENCED. NOT A FACTOR
FOR OVERNIGHT WINDS HOWEVER SO WOULD HAVE LET ADVISORY GO BY
SUNSET EITHER WAY. HAVE MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO
WINDS...POP/WX/QPF/SNOW GRIDS FOR TONIGHT BUT OVERALL FORECAST
TREND REMAINS IN PLACE AND REMAINDER OF GRIDS IN GOOD SHAPE. DMH


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 202 PM MDT MON APR 25 2016/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MARCH EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND IS ON TRACK TO CARVE A NORTHEASTWARD PATH INTO
WYOMING ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL PLACE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
IDAHO WITHIN A FAVORABLE REGION FOR PRECIPITATION INTO TUESDAY. THUS
FAR TODAY THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN RATHER
LIGHT...BUT HEAVIER BANDS OF PRECIPITATION WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS LURK JUST SOUTH OF THE UTAH BORDER AND THIS PRECIPITATION
WILL PIVOT INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS THIS EVENING AND ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN SNAKE PLAIN AND EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY LATER THIS EVENING.
SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO NEAR 6000 FEET ELEVATION ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS WHICH WILL MEAN SNOW AND POSSIBLY SLUSHY ROADS
FOR MANY PASSES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL EARLY THIS EVENING AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL LEAD TO ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION FOR SOME AREAS. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO WIND
DOWN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS ON TUESDAY WITH THE MAIN AREA
OF PRECIPITATION SHIFTING TO THE ID WASATCH AND BEAR LAKE REGION.
A WAVE WILL SWING SOUTHWARD ACROSS SE IDAHO ON WEDNESDAY WHICH
COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN AN UPSWING IN SHOWER
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS ALL OF SE IDAHO.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR AMERICAN FALLS RESERVOIR WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS NORTHEASTERLY WINDS HAVE
DEVELOPED AS FORECAST. CHOP ON OTHER AREA WATERWAYS IS LIKELY AS
WELL. WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT BUT WILL SHIFT MORE WESTERLY
TOMORROW AND WILL LIKELY BECOME BREEZY ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANOTHER
LAKE WIND ADVISORY. AD/WYATT

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS SHOW SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY FROM MOISTURE AN INSTABILITY FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PASSING
SOUTH OF THE AREA. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY EXPECT WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS OVER THE AREA. SUNDAY LOOK
FOR LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER OUR EASTERN AREAS AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. MONDAY LOOK FOR MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE RISING TO
NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY AND ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY. WYATT

AVIATION...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST NEVADA IS
BRINGING WIDESPREAD MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA. KBYI CURRENTLY HAS
IFR/MVFR CIGS. KPIH AND KIDA WILL SEE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AS THIS
LOW MOVES EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING. TAF
SITES WILL SEE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AND
SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED
OVERNIGHT BEFORE BECOMING BREEZY TO MODERATE BY LATE TOMORROW
MORNING INTO EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WYATT

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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