Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 200835
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
235 AM MDT Sat May 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...Today through Monday night. A disturbance currently
swinging into Washington State through British Columbia will
continue on a southeastward trajectory towards Idaho today. The
disturbance will be close enough to aid in the development of
showers and isolated thunderstorms by late afternoon, beginning
over the Sawtooth region then spreading southeastward through the
Evening. While higher terrain areas will be favored for showers
and isolated thunderstorms, can`t rule out activity across the
Snake Plain either. While the probability of Severe Thunderstorms
is low, stronger storms late this Afternoon and Evening will be
capable of producing small hail and some gusty winds. Showers will
continue to slide southeastward coincident with the disturbance
through Saturday night, when the Southern Highlands will be
favored for precipitation chances. On Sunday, isolated showers and
thunderstorms will be favored over the Eastern Highlands/WY border
region in the presence of lingering cyclonic flow. Precipitation
amounts will be highly variable over short distances due to the
convective nature of the activity, however most showers should not
produce more than 0.25" of rain. A second trailing and weaker wave
will be just close enough to produce an isolated shower or
thunderstorm over the Continental Divide region southward along
the WY border Monday afternoon and early evening. Temperatures
will gradually warm through the period, just beginning to exceed
climatological averages by Monday, with highs into the 70s across
the Snake Plain. AD/Valle

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday. Forecast remains
consistent for Tuesday into Wednesday as an area of high pressure
will build into the region which should produce some warm
temperatures along with dry weather. However, forecast becomes
very uncertain after Wednesday as models are coming in with new
solutions just about every run now. Latest runs of the GFS and
European show a trough of low pressure moving into the region for
late week which would produce cool and unsettled weather across
the region. This is a very different solution from yesterday which
was advertising warm and dry for late week. So, at this point,
forecast is highly uncertain beyond Wednesday.

Valle


&&

.AVIATION...A low pressure system will move into the region today.
This will produce some scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
which could affect TAF sites. Ceilings will likely be vfr today
except near showers where mvfr conditions are likely.

Valle


&&

.HYDROLOGY...Main concern after the cool down the past couple of
days is a return to warmer temperatures next week. There is still
quite a bit of snow left in the mountains and in a few higher
elevation spots, recent precipitation even added to available
snow packs. The warmer temperatures will restart the rate of snow
melt and runoff into local streams and rivers. RS


&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$



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