Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 181006
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
306 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOG THIS MORNING NOT NEARLY AS WIDESPREAD AS
YESTERDAY BUT HAVE PATCHY FOG IN GRIDS THIS MORNING. SOME
LOCALIZED AREAS COULD SEE VISIBILITIES BELOW ONE MILE. A WEAKENING
PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THIS
AFTERNOON TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND UPPER SNAKE RIVER HIGHLANDS
WITH SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS
OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH IDAHO FRIDAY WITH
AGAIN MAINLY LIGHT SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH ONLY LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. MORE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE IN OFF THE PACIFIC LATE SATURDAY WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT
MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MUCH WARMER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH RISING SNOW LEVELS.
GK

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH CHRISTMAS NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE VERY
STRONG SIGNAL FOR WET EVENT HEADING INTO THE HOLIDAY TRAVEL WEEK.
VERY MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW STILL AIMING FOR EAST IDAHO EARLY IN THE
PERIOD. WARM TEMPS KEEP SNOW LEVELS ROUGHLY 6500-7500 FT DURING THE
EVENT DURATION. SNOW TOTALS OF 12-18 INCHES ABOVE THOSE LEVELS STILL
QUITE REASONABLE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE HIGHLANDS OF THE
SOUTHEAST CORNER WHERE FAVORABLE NORTHWEST FLOW OROGRAPHICS ARE
EXPECTED. DEEPENING SFC LOW IN NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS A GOOD SET UP
FOR ENHANCED SFC WINDS THROUGH EAST IDAHO SO BLOWING SNOW NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION EITHER. QUICK TRANSITORY RIDGE IN PLACE TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT BUT THINGS LOOKING MORE INTERESTING HEADING INTO THE ACTUAL
CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY. GFS/ECMWF BOTH DROP STRONG/WET SHORTWAVE INTO THE
GREAT BASIN ON CHRISTMAS EVE. THIS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER AND COLDER
THAN PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS. ECMWF SLIGHTLY STRONGER/FASTER AND THUS
COLDER THAN THE GFS. KEY HERE IS THAT BOTH MODELS DEVELOP A STRONG
700MB/SFC LOW SOMEWHERE OVER NORTHERN UTAH BY CHRISTMAS MORNING.
TEMPS WITH THESE SOLUTIONS ARE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW AT NEARLY
ALL ELEVATIONS. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS
FEATURE ESPECIALLY FOR THE HOLIDAY. HAVE TRENDED WITH THE MODELS BUT
AM NOT READY TO GO ALL OUT FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT JUST YET.
THAT SAID...A WHITE CHRISTMAS MORNING MAY BE LOOKING MORE LIKELY FOR
EAST IDAHO. DMH

&&

.AVIATION...UNCERTAINTY ABOUNDS THIS MORNING WITH RESPECT TO FOG
DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE SNAKE PLAIN. STRATUS IN PLACE
OVER UPPER PLAIN WITH LIGHT FOG EXTENDING MOST AREAS. GUIDANCE AND
BUFR SOUNDINGS STILL SUPPORT RESTRICTION OF VIS/CEIL TO AT LEAST BUT
SAT/OBS TRENDING OTHERWISE. WILL MAINTAIN MIX OF CONDITIONS THRU
EARLY DAY PERIOD THEN SHIFT TO VFR. NEXT SHORTWAVE FEATURE ALREADY
INTRODUCING MID CLOUD DECK TO CENTRAL MTNS AND EXPECT THIS TO SHIFT
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTN/TONIGHT. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS WITH
THIS BUT MAINLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS NORTH OF LINE FROM
KSUN/KDIJ. UPPER RIDGE/SFC HIGH IN PLACE AGAIN TONIGHT AND GUIDANCE
AGAIN LEANING TOWARD LOW VIS/CEIL. WILL TREND TOWARD THAT DIRECTION
BUT ALLOW WIGGLE ROOM GIVEN CURRENT CONDITIONS. DMH

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







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