Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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000
FXUS65 KPIH 032100
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
200 PM MST WED FEB 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE
IMAGERY WAS SHOWING A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SWEEPING INTO THE NW COAST
AND NUMERICAL MODELS DRIVE THE WAVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
MORNING. THE LEADING EDGE OF ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD INTO THE CNTRL MOUNTAINS AND BURLEY AREA BY 5AM AND THEN
RAPIDLY EWRD ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE AND
INTO THE ERN HIGHLANDS BY NOON. ONGOING SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED
ALONG AND  EAST OF THE I-15 CORRIDOR THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 3
INCHES IN THE UPPER AND LOWER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AND 2 TO 5 INCHES
THROUGHOUT THE ERN HIGHLANDS. WE WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE SNAKE PLAINS AND ERN HIGHLANDS DUE TO SNOW
AND BLOWING SNOW CAUSING TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES...PRIMARILY DURING THE
MORNING COMMUTE. A SECOND PAC TROUGH FOLLOWS SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVE
AND HAVE BEGUN TO RAMP THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL UPWARDS AGAINST
DRIER NEIGHBORS. EXPECT TO SEE HIGHER PROBABILITIES FORECAST OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO IF THE MODELS HOLD STEADY ON THE STRENGTH AND
TRAJECTORY OF THE SYSTEM. BREEZY WINDS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS
SYSTEM THROUGH THE AREA. DAYTIME TEMPS WARM TOWARD CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE TWO AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEMS HELP TO
MIX OUT THE COLD AIR TRAPPED IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEY REGIMES. HUSTON

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. SAT NIGHT WRAPS
UP THE WEEKEND STORM WITH THE THREAT MAINLY TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE ID-WY BORDER REGION AND IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE ID-MT BORDER
REGION. ONCE THIS LOW MOVES EASTWARD...AND EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY
AND WARMING CONDITIONS FOLLOWS...WITH NO CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REST OF THIS PERIOD. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...BORDERING ON
SUMMER TIME HEIGHTS...WILL SHIELD EASTERN IDAHO FROM ANY STORMS
ENTERING THE WEST COAST. THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE THE
EXTENT OF STRATUS AND FOG...AND HOW IT WILL AFFECT AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES. THIS SHOULD ALSO AFFECT AIR QUALITY WITH STRONG
INVERSIONS POSSIBLE FOR THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING. HAVE KEPT
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL...GOING WITH BIAS-CORRECTED CONSENSUS.
MESSICK
&&

.AVIATION...INCOMING FRONT THU MORNING...IN FACT LATER THAN PREVIOUS
EXPECTATIONS...AND LASTING INTO THE AFTERNOON. MAIN IMPACT IS LOW
CIGS AND SLIGHTLY LOWER VSBYS. KSUN MAY BE CLOSED DUE TO CIGS BELOW
1900 FT AGL. KIDA LIKELY IFR CONDITIONS FOR CIGS FOR MUCH OF THE
MORNING. KPIH AND KBYI WILL BE MARGINAL VFR MOST LIKELY...AIDED BY
DOWNSLOPE WINDS PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE THEY COULD BE IFR FOR CIGS DURING THE MORNING. MESSICK
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
IDZ019>021-023-025 FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
&&

$$


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