Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 091848
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
1248 PM MDT TUE SEP 9 2014

.DISCUSSION...A DRY COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH IDAHO TODAY IS
BRINGING STRONG WEST WINDS AND COOLER TEMPS TO THE FCST AREA. THIS
SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS THIS
AFTN...THEN ONLY ALONG THE DIVIDE THRU THURSDAY MORN DUE TO THE NW
FLOW INTERACTING WITH THE TERRAIN. WINDS PICKING UP BY LATE
MORNING RESULTED IN PUSHING UP THE START TIME FOR THE LAKE WIND
ADV. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATER THIS EVE. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SHOWERS NEAR THE DIVIDE...THE FCST AREA IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN DRY THRU THE PERIOD. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE...
WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR SPILLING OVER THE DIVIDE ON THU.
TEMPS COULD FALL BELOW FREEZING IN THE SNAKE PLAIN FRI MORNING.
UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD BACK IN OVER THE WEEKEND... STARTING
A WARMING TREND. SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE MODELS FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF TRY TO BRING A MINOR SHORT WAVE THRU THE
PAC NW MON AND TUE...WITH THE ECMWF THE EARLIEST. THE ECMWF ALSO
DAMPENS OUT THE WAVE BY THE TIME IT REACHES ID. THE GFS MAINTAINS
THE WAVE A LITTLE LONGER. WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT FCST WITH
ISOLD SHOWERS IN THE MTNS ON TUE. HEDGES

&&

.AVIATION...MORE WIDESPREAD GUSTY WINDS WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS...AFFECTING KIDA/KPIH/KBYI.  WE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP
FOR THE AFTERNOON AT KSUN. THIS TYPE OF PATTERN IS CONDUCIVE TO
OCCASIONAL WIND SHIFTS TO THE WEST AS GAP WINDS TAKE OVER. WE WILL
SEE WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN IDAHO LATER
ON. THROUGH TONIGHT THEY SHOULD HOLD JUST NORTH AND WEST OF KIDA.
HOWEVER...IF THEY SLIP 10-20 MILES FARTHER SOUTH WINDS THERE WILL
BECOME NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT 10-20KTS. FOR WEDNESDAY...SOME SHOWERS
ARE LIKELY CLOSER TO THE DIVIDE BUT NOTHING THAT WOULD AFFECT ANY OF
OUR TAF SITES. WE WILL ALSO SEE WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON EXCEPT IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-20KTS ARE EXPECTED AT THE VALLEY TAF SITES.
KEYES

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WE WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK. WE WILL SEE SOME SHOWERS MAINLY NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AS
THE STORM TRACK REMAINS JUST TO THE EAST OF THERE. OTHER THAN
THAT...WE WILL BE DRY. OTHERWISE WE WILL SEE BREEZY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL SEE A
FULL SHIFT TO NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS AREA WIDE AS A PUSH OF COOLER
AIR COMES OVER THE DIVIDE AND OVERTAKES EASTERN IDAHO. HUMIDITY
VALUES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN AT/ABOVE 20 PERCENT ACROSS THE
BOARD. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL HELP US REMAIN DRY. WE WILL NEED TO WORRY ABOUT DRY/WARM
CONDITIONS AT MID/UPPER SLOPES AS WE WILL LIKELY SEE INVERSIONS
DEVELOP. THIS WILL BE IMPORTANT FOR ANY RANDOM WILDFIRE POPS UP OR
WITH PRESCRIBED BURNS TAKING PLACE. KEYES

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING IDZ021.

&&

$$






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