Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 210910
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
310 AM MDT FRI AUG 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. SHORT WAVE MAKING ITS WAY OUT
OF BC SHOULD DROP INTO NORTHERN IDAHO LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
PRECEDING THE WAVE IS A COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO PASS INTO
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE SNAKE PLAIN
IN THE AFTERNOON. MODELS SUGGEST LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP WILL OCCUR
WITH ALONG THE FRONT...BUT WINDS AND LOW RH WILL DRIVE THE NEED
FOR A RED FLAG WARNING TODAY AS WELL AS A LAKE WIND ADVISORY. DRY
STABLE AIR RETURNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
RIDGING BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE WEST. HINSBERGER

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY. UPPER RIDGE WILL OVER
THE WEST WILL DRAW SOME MORE MONSOON ACROSS UTAH MONDAY AND SPREAD
INTO IDAHO AS EARLY AS TUESDAY GFS/ECMWF ARE REMARKABLY SIMILAR IN
THEIR DEPICTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY THOUGH THE
MODELS ARE AT ODDS WITH THE DISTRIBUTION OF PRECIP. THE GFS IS THE
WETTER SOLUTION FOR MID-WEEK AND BEYOND. VERY LITTLE CHANGES
WARRANTED IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS.  HINSBERGER
&&

.AVIATION...SMOKE CONTINUES TO AFFECT ALL TAF SITES...BUT TO A
LESSER DEGREE THIS MORNING. KBYI STILL REPORTING A CEILING OWING TO
SMOKE. MAIN FOCUS IS ON FRONT SYSTEM COMING THROUGH AND STRONG WINDS
TODAY. SNAKE PLAIN WILL BE QUITE BREEZY WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS 25 TO
35 MPH AND GUSTY...STRONGEST WINDS IN THE ARCO DESERT AND NEAR KIDA.
NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT COMING THROUGH. RS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MAIN EVENT REMAINS THE STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH IDAHO ON FRIDAY. RED FLAG WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR ZONES
475...476 AND 410 WITH ZONE 413 BEING ADDED TO THE RED FLAG
WARNING FOR AREAS BELOW 5000 FEET. EXPECT WIND GUSTS IN THE 25 TO
40 MPH RANGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH MINIMUM
HUMIDITY SLIGHTLY BELOW OR NEAR 15 PERCENT ACROSS THE WARNED
AREAS. MAIN CONCERN IS FOR POTENTIAL OF SPREAD OF LARGE FIRES IN
ZONE 475. A GRADUAL SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION IS EXPECTED...FAVORING
SOUTHWESTERLY THIS MORNING. THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS MORE WESTERLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND BY 1800-2000 HOURS NORTHWESTERLY. WE END THE
DAY WITH THE LEMHI...BIRCH CREEK AND LITTLE LOST SEEING A GOOD
NORTHWESTERLY WIND INTO THE ARCO DESERT. A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR WEST YELLOWSTONE...OTHERWISE
NO PRECIPITATION. WE REMAIN DRY WITH A GRADUAL BUILD OF A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE INTO THE WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY SOME UNCERTAINTY
ABOUT ANY MONSOON MOISTURE COMING THIS WAY BY TUESDAY TO THURSDAY
TIME PERIOD. RS

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR IDZ410-475-476.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
IDZ021.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
IDZ413.

&&

$$



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