Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 121006

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
306 AM MST Sun Nov 12 2017

.SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday...Some pockets of fog are
noted on satellite this morning, including the Wood River Valley
and along the Continental Divide. This will likely burn off quite
quickly under forecast bright skies today. Weak high pressure lies
at the surface today, which will allow for some drier conditions
and temperatures warmer compared to yesterday. Further warming is
forecast for Monday with flow back from the southwest. Our next
chance for seeing winter weather starts late Monday in the Central
Mountains with a slight chance for snow showers in the higher
elevations through the overnight hours. Models are in decent
agreement regarding the progression of a cold front early Tuesday
with both rain and snow showers in our forecast Tuesday. Snow
levels this day start out fairly high, around 7000 ft in the Snake
Plain (6000 ft in the Central Mountains), then dropping to 5000
ft by the end of the day (dropping to 4000 ft in the Central
Mountains). This pattern is rather similar to the one that just
passed through last week so we will see if snow or rain falls in
the Snake Plain this time around. We cannot be surprised if the
same wet snow that doesn`t stick occurs again. Snow amounts above
6000 ft in the Central Mountains range from 4 to 7 inches from
late Monday through Tuesday. An inch to 3 inches is currently
forecast in higher elevations in the Highlands. NP/RS

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Saturday. An active weather
continues with the next weather disturbance entering the Central
Mountains and Southern Sawtooth Forest/Magic Mountain area late
Wednesday afternoon and progressing quickly to the Eastern Highlands
by midnight. Model consensus favors not one but two embedded waves
that could prolong the rain/snow showers into Friday afternoon. For
most of Wednesday night and Thursday, snow levels should be elevated
enough over the Upper and Lower Snake Plain for precipitation
falling as rain. Thursday night into Friday morning, the Upper Snake
Plain may change over to snow while the Lower Snake Plain and
Eastern Magic Valley ends up a mix of rain and snow. For the
mountains, both Central and Eastern may see a couple more inches of
snow accumulation with this system given it is a longer event. A
rough guess might be 3 to 7 inches with a few peaks a little higher.
The I-15 corridor, perhaps an inch. It`s a pretty big guess this far
out. Would like to think Friday night and Saturday will be between
disturbances, but the models are really out of phase with one
another for the timing of the next round. RS


.AVIATION...Widespread VFR today through most of Monday. The next
disturbance should move into KSUN and KBYI area Monday evening. Snow
levels at KSUN Monday evening should begin near 6700 feet elevation
and the in the Snake Plain about 7500 feet, trending lower into
Tuesday morning. RS



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