Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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000
FXUS65 KPIH 102103
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
203 PM MST Tue Jan 10 2017

.SHORT TERM...Current satellite imagery shows another round of
very moist air crossing Oregon into western Idaho this afternoon.
This should be the last really big round of snow. snow levels in
the Eastern Magic Valley, Lower Snake Plain, and portions of the
South Central Highlands are elevated to around 5000 feet and
expected to remain near or a little above the floor of the Plain
a good deal of the evening. Other wise snow accumulation for that
area will be 1 to 3 inches, possibly higher near Carey and
Craters of the Moon. winds remain up overnight, so blowing and
drifting is expected where precipitation remains as snow. This
airmass is quite moist and will produce up to foot or more of new
snow in the upper elevations, especially above 7000 feet. On
Wednesday, westerly winds continue to favor the mountains more
than the lower valleys for any new snow. the very moist feed of
air begins to slip south of Idaho by Wednesday evening with the
developing cut off low slipping south along the west coast. This
brings an end of this storm system and a return to overnight lows
near or a little below zero. RS

.LONG TERM...Thursday night through Tuesday.
Long term period looks to be relatively quiet compared to recent
weather with dry and cold conditions expected through the period.
Both European and GFS are dry with the next precipitation late
Tuesday and Tuesday night on both models and have that in grids.
Kept dry Friday through Monday with below normal temperatures
expected.
GK

&&

.AVIATION...Extreme amounts of moisture moving into region tonight.
Expect MVFR to low IFR conditions at all sites with below airport
minimums expected at SUN tonight in heavy snow.   Driggs will see
IFR conditions in snow as well with mainly rain and MVFR expected at
BYI, PIH and IDA with occasional IFR ceilings possible as well.   20
to 30 knot winds possible at BYI, PIH, IDA and DIJ overnight into
Wednesday.   Expect a change to snow at the BYI, PIH and IDA sites
during the day on Wednesday with MVFR to IFR conditions continuing
at all sites through the morning hours.
GK

&&

.HYDROLOGY...We were experiencing a temporary respite from rain and
snow early this afternoon. The models however are showing rising
snow levels and the potential for rain or rain and snow in the lower
valley locations tonight through Wednesday morning. The NOHRSC Snow
Melt model was showing modest liquid production mainly in the Burley
area tonight through Wednesday while the remaining valley locations
showed little in the way of significant liquid production. Given the
uncertainty of the snow level tonight and minor ongoing drainage
issues, we opted to continue the Areal Flood Warning for the valley
locations across SE Idaho. In addition, ice jam and avalanche debris
issues continued near Challis and Hailey, respectively and thus the
Flood Advisories were continued in those areas as well. We are set
to allow the Areal Flood Warning for the Bear Lake and Soda Springs
area to expire at 545 PM this evening where no flooding issues were
reported today. Drier conditions follow Wednesday afternoon through
the end of the week and we anticipate dropping the Areal Flood
Warnings Wednesday. Huston

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST Wednesday for IDZ020-021-
032.

Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM MST Thursday for IDZ018-019-
023>025-031.

Winter Storm Warning until 5 AM MST Wednesday for IDZ017-022.

&&

$$



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