Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 220834

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
234 AM MDT THU SEP 22 2016


A deep low pressure system is located near the Oregon/California
border this morning. Quite a bit of moisture is associated with this
system. Many areas saw up towards a half an inch of rainfall
overnight. Over the next 48 hours, this low will slowly march into
and through southern Idaho. Expect waves of showers to move through
the region during this time. An additional 1 to 2 inches of rain is
likely by the time the system exits the region Saturday morning. A
flash flood watch remains in effect for much of the southeast
highlands. Mudslides near burn scars from recent fires are the
primary potential impact. A few strong thunderstorms will be
possible this afternoon close to the Utah border if that area can
get a long enough break in the clouds/showers to heat up.
Temperatures will cooler today and much cooler on Friday as the
low moves overhead. The record coldest maximum temperature for
Pocatello on Friday is 49 degrees and current forecast is for a
high around 52. Snow levels will fall to around 7500 to 8000 feet
by Friday. Any locations above this level could see several inches
of snow. Although this should not affect any primary roads in the
region, those with hiking or hunting interest at those elevations
may be affected. Forecast improves significantly from Saturday
onwards as a large area of high pressure settles over the region
bringing dry weather back to the area with temps gradually warming
closer to normal.



.AVIATION...Rather tricky forecast for today due to variability of
rain shower placements. Ceiling and visibility forecast will be
toughest challenge in TAFs. So far conditions have wavered between
MVFR and VFR with some models indicting IFR overnight. Since this
has not panned out, will not be following these models however
ceilings can certainly still drop for a period within a stronger
rain band today. For today, expect ceilings to vary between VFR and
MVFR conditions with visibilities dropping this evening with next
widespread band of precipitation. Wind are not much of a concern for
any sites. NP/DV


.FIRE WEATHER...High chances for wetting rains through late Friday
evening across Southeast Idaho is expected to bring widespread 1 to
3 inches of rainfall. A slight chance for thunderstorms are forecast
in the South, Eastern and Caribou Highlands this evening and Friday
evening otherwise this is a stratiform rain event. Debris in burn
scars from recent fires could become a concern, especially with
heavier rainfall bands today and Friday. As a result, a flash flood
watch will continue for these concerns. Winds Friday afternoon and
evening forecast to gust to 25 to 30 mph across the Eastern Magic
Valley out of the west-northwest with stronger winds in portions of
the southern Sawtooths. Winds elsewhere will not be much of a
concernwith less than 20 mph gusts through Saturday, then light
and variable conditions take over across Idaho Sunday. NP/DV


.PIH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flash Flood Watch through Friday afternoon for IDZ022-023-025.


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