Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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000
FXUS65 KPIH 280847
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
247 AM MDT THU APR 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SAT NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
FROM MONTANA TO ARIZONA WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS GOING IN EASTERN AND CENTRAL IDAHO
FOR NOT ONLY TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD. IN
FACT...TODAY IS THE LOWEST PROBABILITY DAY...AND MORE LIKE
ISOLATED CONDITIONS RATHER THAN SCATTERED. BUT A NEW LOW WITH MORE
MOISTURE SLIDES IN FROM WA-OR AND COULD POTENTIALLY SEE SOME HEAVY
DOWNPOURS IN THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS ON FRI/FRI EVE. ON
SAT...THE FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION MOVES TO THE AREAS SOUTH OF THE
SNAKE RIVER...AND MAINLY THE HIGHLANDS. HOWEVER...ALL AREAS ARE
UNDER THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION AT SOME LEVEL FOR SAT/SAT NIGHT.
ALL THE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS MILD FOR FRI AND SAT
NIGHT...AND AFTERNOON HIGHS AT OR BELOW NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF
YEAR. ONCE AGAIN SNOW IS POSSIBLE...BUT SIGNIFICANT SNOW WILL ONLY
DEVELOP ABOVE 7000 FEET...IF AT ALL...FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS
IN THIS NEAR TERM PERIOD. FOR FRI NIGHT...IT LOWERS TO 6000 FEET
ELEVATION...BUT QUICKLY SOARS TO 8000 FEET BY SAT AFTERNOON DUE TO
A STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND THAT DEVELOPS WITH THE SECOND LOW. WITH
THE PRESSURE PATTERN TODAY...NORTHEAST WIND WILL CONTINUE AND
INCREASE DURING THE MORNING IN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN...AND THIS
MEANS A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE AMERICAN FALLS RESERVOIR IS
NECESSARY FOR NEARLY ALL DAY TODAY DUE TO A LOW THRESHOLD OF 10KT.
MESSICK

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. GFS AND ECWMF REMAIN
CONSISTENT IN WEAKENING LOW OVER GREAT BASIN SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
IN FAVOR OF HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDING OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES. EVIDENCE FOR WEAK INSTABILITY REMAINS THROUGH TUESDAY AS
UPPER RIDGE AXIS BUILDS. THUS LEFT WEAK SHOWERS/STORMS MAINLY HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. DRY FORECAST FOR REGION ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS SHIFT THE
DEEP PACIFIC LOW/TROUGH ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY...REINTRODUCING
PRECIPITATION OVER EAST IDAHO BY THAT TIME. TEMPERATURES WARM TO
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. DMH

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY ALL TERMINAL
SITES. CONVECTION SHOULD REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH BEST CHANCE
EARLY AT KSUN...EXTENDING INTO THE SNAKE PLAIN DURING THE EVENING.
BELIEVE KPIH/KIDA SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND WILL LIKELY LEAVE MENTION
OUT OF THOSE TERMINALS TODAY. NORTHEAST GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE
TODAY...AND IS TYPICALLY UNDERDONE BY GUIDANCE. EXPECT WINDS
ESPECIALLY KPIH/KIDA THIS AFTERNOON TO REACH THE 12-15KT RANGE WITH
GUSTS LIKELY AROUND 20KTS. DMH

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR IDZ021.

&&

$$



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