Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 212040

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
240 PM MDT FRI OCT 21 2016

.SHORT TERM...Friday night through Monday. Early Saturday morning
there is a weak disturbance that will pass to the north of this
forecast area. The high pressure ridge currently over southeast
Idaho is increasing in amplitude enough that any showers associated
with this disturbance will be far enough north that we will not
include any mention in the forecast. The associated surface front
will also be weak, but will support some 10 to 15 mph winds in the
Snake Plain during the afternoon. Otherwise, temperatures will warm
several degrees this weekend under the ridge. There is a chance of
showers and isolated thunderstorms Monday afternoon particularly in
the South Central and Caribou Highlands with moist unstable air
moving north from Baja California. RS

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Friday. The forecast is still as clear
as mud for a good chunk of next week.  That said, some trends are
developing.  Tuesday should be a better chance of showers areawide.
As the low offshore of Oregon and Washington weakens and begins to
push inland, a stronger ridge develops. That means stronger
southwest flow, along with warm and drier weather potentially
Wednesday and most of Thursday. We pushed the forecast more in that
direction but still left a much lower chance of showers in case
things quickly flip back the other direction. There is also trend
toward wet again by the end of next week. The ECMWF and GFS
generally agreed on holding off on the next big push until Saturday.
However, just glancing at the latest ECMWF run wants to bring it in
Friday. This is due to how quickly the storm off the California
coasts sweeps inland and to the northeast. We did start pushing the
forecast in that direction a bit. Keyes


.AVIATION...VFR weather will continue across the area. Just some
occasional high and mid level cloud cover. Keyes


.PIH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.


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