Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 250933
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
333 AM MDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...Wednesday through Friday...Isolated showers persisted
overnight across the Caribou Highlands, Upper Snake Highlands and
portions of the Central Mountains. A rather slow progression of
this activity to the east is expected during the early morning
hours.

Multiple shortwaves will rotate around a positively tilted upper
trough across the western U.S. through early Friday. This will provide
continuous opportunity for additional showers and thunderstorms
for our area. For this afternoon, the best opportunities for
isolated thunderstorms to develop will be across the Upper Snake
Plain, Upper Snake Highlands and Southern Highlands. Rainfall
totals may exceed 0.10 inches in these locations over a 12 hour
period or so. The forecast followed a blend of GFS and Canadian
model solutions over the ECMWF for consistency and because ECMWF
was a bit more aggressive with their rainfall amounts in the
northern areas later this week. By Friday, the influence from a
new approaching upper low from the northwest will begin increasing
our winds out of the southwest. Friday will also be the best
chance to be precip-free for most of the region, with the
exception of our areas bordering Montana. NP/DMH


.LONG TERM...Friday night through Wednesday...Friday night into
Saturday, forecast models drop snow levels quite a bit and could
make for a potential Frost/Freeze Advisory for the Snake Plain.
Temperatures are noted in the low to mid 30s and marginal winds.
If they stay elevated as they are forecast now this will not be a
concern. A new shortwave trough forecast to pass across Idaho
Sunday and Monday which brings another round of showers and
thunderstorms to our area. Then, for now, models show a ridge
building in which allows for warmer temperatures. NP/DMH


&&

.AVIATION...Very little change expected today from yesterday.
Showers are expected to redevelop across the region by noon with
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Ceilings will remain VFR
unless MVFR directly under convection, which should dissipate by
06Z. DMH

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...East Idaho fire district remains under the influence
of a broad upper trough across the Pac NW states. Unsettled
conditions will continue with mainly scattered showers and isolated
afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Temperatures are expected to
remain near or slightly below seasonal levels with relatively high
afternoon humidities. This means that thunderstorms will have the
potential to produce at least localized heavy rain along with gusty
winds and small hail. The strongest non-thunderstorm winds are
expected on Friday...with afternoon winds 20-25 mph. DMH

.PIH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$



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