Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 151032
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
332 AM MST MON DEC 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IN THE WAKE OF AN EXITING
SYSTEM COMBINED WITH RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE AREA...EXPECT
PATCHY FREEZING FOG MAINLY ACROSS OUR LOW LYING...EASTERN AREAS
THIS MORNING. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TODAY EXCEPT FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS ALONG OUR EASTERN AREAS. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A WEAK
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM THOUGH
SOME LIGHT VALLEY SNOW IS POSSIBLE AS WELL. LATER WEDNESDAY...MODELS
INDICATE WEAK RIDGING WITH A SYSTEM MOVING JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA
THROUGH UTAH. LOOK FOR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE PERIOD. WYATT

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF AGREE
ON AN UPPER RIDGE MOVING INTO THE WEST ON TUE. LIGHT SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE MTNS DUE TO THE STRONG NORTH FLOW AHEAD
OF THE RIDGE AXIS...WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA REMAINS DRY. THE
RIDGE IS QUICKLY DISPLACED BY AN UPPER TROF ON SATURDAY. THE ECMWF
SUGGESTS A MORE ORGANIZED TROF THAN THE GFS...BUT THE MODELS HAVE
BEEN STRUGGLING WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS. WILL RAISE
POPS FOR FRI NIGHT AND SATURDAY...LEANING MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF.
BOTH MODELS DEVELOP A CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN BY
SUN MORN...BUT THE ECMWF HANGS BACK FARTHER TO THE WEST. THIS WOULD
MAINTAIN THE THREAT OF LINGERING PRECIP ON SUN...WHILE THE GFS
POSITION WOULD SUGGEST DRY. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHC ON SUNDAY...AGAIN
LEANING SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE ECMWF. ZONAL FLOW INCREASES SUN NIGHT
AND MONDAY AS THE EAST PAC RIDGE FLATTENS. THIS WILL STREAM PAC
MOISTURE INTO THE NW AND INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES MAINLY OVER THE
CENTRAL MTNS/EASTERN HIGHLANDS. HEDGES

&&

.AVIATION...LOW CIGS EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN THE UPPER SNAKE PLAIN
BEFORE IMPROVING THIS AFTN. OCNL LOW CIGS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THIS
MORN AT KSUN. HEDGES

&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







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