Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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000
FXUS65 KPIH 240954
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
254 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. IR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWING
FOG/ST SPREADING THROUGH THE ENTIRE SNAKE PLAIN AND INTO THE
SOUTHERN VALLEYS. WEBCAMS SUGGEST THIS IS PREDOMINANTLY A STRATUS
DECK WITH PATCHY AREAS OF FREEZING FOG. GFS AND NAM ARE DRAWING SOME
WEAK ENERGY AROUND THE DEVELOPING RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW AND INTO THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. IF THAT
ENERGY IS STRONG ENOUGH...WE MAY LIFT THIS FOG/STRATUS DECK AND SEE
SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF
UPSLOPE FLOW. QPF AMOUNTS ARE LIGHT AND SHOULD TRANSLATE TO SNOWFALL
OF UNDER AN INCH TO POSSIBLY 2 INCHES IN THE ISLAND PARK AREA. WE
SHOULD SEE UPPER HIGH CIRCULATION SPLIT OFF AND DRIVE INTO THE GREAT
BASIN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THIS MAY SET THE STAGE FOR MORE VALLEY
FOG IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ON TRACK TO
BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AS THE UPPER HIGH MOVES NEARLY OVERHEAD.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF GETTING IN THE 50S ON MONDAY.
HINSBERGER

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MODEL HANDLING OF A LOW NEAR
NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA MONDAY MORNING AND TRACKING IT TO NORTHERN
NEVADA AND SOUTHERN IDAHO BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN ACROSS IDAHO
INTO WYOMING BY THURSDAY MORNING IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT. ESTIMATE
SNOW LEVELS TUESDAY AFTERNOON 6000-6500 FEET DROPPING ABOUT 500 FEET
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. EVEN ACCUMULATIVE MODEL PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS OVER 48 HOURS FROM TUESDAY MORNING TO THURSDAY MORNING ARE
PRETTY SIMILAR FOR THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS...SUGGESTING UP TO .5 INCH
LIQUID EQUIVALENT IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...OR 2-7 INCHES SNOW OVER
2 DAYS. MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ARE GREATER AND
GENERALLY LESS THAN THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS...WILL TAKE A SHOT AND SAY SNOW
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE SAME TIME PERIOD. RS
&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE UPPER AN LOWER SNAKE PLAIN...INCLUDING
KIDA...KPIH AND KBYI...THE NEAR SURFACE WINDS CONTINUE TO REMAIN
FAVORABLE TO MOVE LOW LEVEL STRATUS CLOUDS FROM BOISE TO POCATELLO
AND IDAHO FALLS. BELIEVE KBYI WILL BREAK OUT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
KIDA AND KPIH MAY ONLY SEE CEILINGS LIFTING TO MVFR AROUND 19Z. KIDA
WILL PROBABLY DROP BACK TO LIFR BY MIDNIGHT. KPIH SHOULD HAVE JUST
ENOUGH SOUTH WINDS TO MAINTAIN MVFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT. RS
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$




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