Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 050239
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
739 PM MST THU FEB 4 2016

.UPDATE...LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS
OF EAST IDAHO. RADAR SHOWING A SMALL AREA OF RETURNS FOCUSED
MAINLY SOUTH OF POCATELLO ALONG AND EITHER SIDE OF INTERSTATE 15
WITH ACCUMULATIONS PERSISTING PER AREA WEB CAMS. AREAS IN THE
HIGHLANDS EAST OF INTERSTATE 15 ALSO CONTINUING TO SEE LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS. HAVE DROPPED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNAKE
PLAIN ZONES WITH ONLY LIGHT FLURRIES REMAINING ALONG INTERSTATE
CORRIDOR. REMAINDER OF ADVISORY LEFT IN PLACE AS NORTHWEST FLOW
KEEPS WEAK PRECIP GOING OVERNIGHT. BURLEY JUST WARM ENOUGH FOR
PRECIP TO BE FALLING AS RAIN AND WILL WATCH CAREFULLY TO SEE IF
PERSISTS LONG ENOUGH TO TURN TO FREEZING RAIN OVERNIGHT IN THE
MAGIC VALLEY OR LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS. ONLY OTHER
UPDATE THIS EVENING IS TO SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPS ACROSS THE ARCO
DESERT PER OBSERVATION TRENDS. DMH


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 PM MST THU FEB 4 2016/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON. CURRENT STORM HAS
SLOWED ITS EXIT AND SO HAVE EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
INTO THE LATE NIGHT FOR THE VALLEY ZONES AND THROUGH FRI MORNING
FOR THE HIGHLAND ZONES. THE NEXT STORM IS COMING IN AS EARLY AS
FRI NIGHT IN THE EXTREME WESTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
WILL SPREAD MOISTURE EASTWARD. THE MAIN AFFECTED AREAS ARE NORTH
OF A HAILEY-BLACKFOOT-SODA SPRINGS CONTOUR. MUCH LESS
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED...WITH 0.10 TO 0.20 IN THE EASTERN MAGIC
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS TO 1 TO 3 IN THE SAWTOOTHS AND THE
UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS...CARIBOU HIGHLANDS...AND THE MOUNTAINS
AROUND BEAR LAKE. 3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE TARGHEE NATIONAL
FOREST...INCLUDING TETON PASS AND PINE CREEK PASS. WINDS WITH BOTH
THE CURRENT STORM AND THE SAT/SAT NIGHT STORM WILL PEAK AT 10 TO
20 MPH FOR EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE EXTREME ELEVATIONS ABOVE 9000 FT.
EXPECT A SMALL WARMING TREND FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THEN
TURNING COLDER FOR SUN AFTER THE SECOND STORMS COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. MESSICK

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. IT LOOKS LIKE A
PRETTY STRONG RIDGE WILL SIT OVER IDAHO THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK. THAT MEANS WE CAN EXPECT INVERSIONS TO RULE THE
ROOST...WITH MID AND UPPER ELEVATIONS WELL INTO THE 30S AND 40S. THE
I-84-86 CORRIDOR MAY ALSO PUSH A BIT WARMER IF WE CAN GET SOUTHERLY
GAP WINDS TO MIX THINGS UP ENOUGH. OTHERWISE...THE INVERSIONS WILL
KEEP MANY VALLEY TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S AND LOW 30S. THIS IS ALSO
THE PERFECT SETUP FOR FOG OR STRATUS ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN GET ANY
EXTRA MELTING/SUBLIMATION OF THE EXISTING SNOW ON THE GROUND. A
STORM MOVING ONSHORE EVENTUALLY WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE AND MAY ALLOW
ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION LATER IN THE WEEK.
THESE PATTERNS CAN BE TOUGH TO BREAK SO WE DID INCLUDE A 10ISH
PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW BY THAT POINT. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
WARM BUT EXPECT SOME MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES...UP A BIT IN THE
VALLEYS AND DOWN A BIT IN THE MOUNTAINS. KEYES

AVIATION...MOST OF THE LIGHT SNOW HAS SHIFTED INTO THE EASTERN
HIGHLANDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE MODELS AND CURRENT OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE INTERSTATE
CORRIDOR...AS WELL AS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. WE SHOULD SEE THE
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW END OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AT
KBYI...KPIH AND KIDA. THERE WILL BE SOME WIND THIS AFTERNOON 15-
25KTS AT TIMES BEFORE DYING DOWN TONIGHT. IFR WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT
THESE SITES AFTER TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY AS THERE IS PLENTY OF
MOISTURE AROUND FOR THAT. THE QUESTION THEN BECOMES WILL THERE BE
FOG. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME AROUND...BUT NOT WIDESPREAD AS THERE
WILL BE SOME 5-10KT WINDS. BECAUSE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR IT BEING
MORE PATCHY...WE DIDN`T INCLUDE THAT IN THE FORECAST. KSUN HAS BEEN
SITTING ON THE EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS TODAY AND THEY SHOULD STAY THAT
WAY...ALTHOUGH IF THE WIND IS STRONGER THAT WILL BE ENOUGH TO PULL
IT INTO THE WOOD RIVER VALLEY. IF THAT HAPPENS...EXPECT MVFR
CEILINGS. THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON BUT NOT ENOUGH TO EVEN MENTION VCSH.
KEYES

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST FRIDAY FOR IDZ019-023-
025.

&&

$$


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