Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 190858

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
258 AM MDT Wed Apr 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...Today through Friday afternoon. Mostly isolated
showers expected today over mountain areas. A surface low should
develop in Oregon and move north with a hint of a warm front
brushing the west side of Idaho. Temperature lapse rates are on
the steep side today, with enough instability for isolated
thunderstorms to show up late afternoon and early evening.
Thursday, a low pressure trough off shore moves inland with a
negative tilt to it. Surface low will cross northern Idaho and
pick up some lee side development. The Eastern Magic Valley and
Lower Snake Plain will breezy, but at this time appears short of
a Wind Advisory. Scattered to numerous showers expected with
rainfall of .1 to .3 inches possible. Airmass remains unstable, so
have included a slight chance of thunderstorms for the afternoon.
The trough moves east of the state Thursday night, leaving
northwesterly flow aloft and a few showers in the Upper Snake
Highlands and along the Wyoming border. High temperatures today
will be mainly in the 50s to lower 60s, cooling 7 to 10 degrees
on Thursday. RS

.LONG TERM...Saturday through next Wednesday...The weekend begins
under high pressure with temperatures in the mid 60s for highs. A
cold front will then sweep our state by weekends end, bringing
showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon. A series of additional
shortwaves will aid in additional showers and thunderstorms
throughout next week, particularly Tuesday. Widespread initial
estimates are for 1/10 to 1/4 inch of rainfall to fall on this day
alone. Forecast models begin to get inconsistent with one another by
Wednesday regarding the progression of additional shortwaves. There
is consensus that Idaho will remain in a wet period, however timing
of these waves differ between the model solutions. Temperatures
Tuesday and Wednesday are slightly cooler then the previous
days, by about 5 to 10 degrees. NP/RS


.AVIATION...Yesterdays rain showers are expected to lead to low
stratus or mist/fog development early this morning. Moisture
profiles are showing improvement by mid-morning, after 9 a.m. MDT
but could last as long as 11 a.m. IDA will be slow to respond and
may go from IFR to MFVR during the afternoon hours before clearing
to VFR ceilings later this afternoon. Satellite imagery was showing
the fog/status across the Cache Valley and spreading northwards,
along with another area of patchy fog over Custer County, although
this area of fog is not likely to affect SUN. Additional showers or
thunderstorms are possible today at IDA, SUN and DIJ which is not
expected to lower ceilings below VFR. NP/RS




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