Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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000
FXUS65 KPIH 231955
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
155 PM MDT TUE JUN 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. OUR ANTICIPATED WARMING
TREND SLOWLY BEGINS. WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES THOUGH WITH SOME
OCCASIONAL CLOUDS AND ISOLATED STORMS CLOSER TO THE MONTANA
BORDER. AS THE RIDGE STARTING REALLY BUILDING ON THURSDAY...ANY
REAL CONCERN FOR CLOUDS AND STORM THREAT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
ISLAND PARK BY AFTERNOON. MOST AREAS WILL BE IN THE 80S AND 90S BY
THEN AS WELL...10 OR MORE DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE IN SOME
INSTANCES. KEYES

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. THE MAIN IMPACT
IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE HEAT AND IN ALL LIKELIHOOD RECORD
BREAKING HEAT. HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA AND BECOMES CENTERED
OVERHEAD BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE WILL SEE 80S AND 90S IN THE
MOUNTAINS WITH UPPER 90S TO MID 100S IN THE LOWER VALLEYS. WE WILL
BE MONITORING ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM THE HEAT ESPECIALLY WHEN
IT COMES OVERNIGHT LOWS...AS THAT CAN BE THE KEY TO PROLONGED
HEAT-RELATED ISSUES. THERE COULD BE A SAVING GRACE...BUT RIGHT NOW
MUCH OF ONE...WHICH WOULD BE ISOLATED STORMS. THE MODELS ARE
PERSISTENT ON PULLING MONSOON MOISTURE AROUND THE RIDGE.
INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH...THE MODELS INSIST ON MOISTURE GETTING
TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE AND PRODUCING STORMS. IT WILL BE A BALANCE
OF THE RIDGE HELPING TO QUASH DEVELOPMENT AND THE EXTREME
HEAT...WHICH COULD BE ENOUGH IF WE DO GET THE MOISTURE SURGE. FOR
NOW...THE FORECAST DOES SHOW ISOLATED MOUNTAIN STORMS BUT
CONFIDENCE ISN`T THAT HIGH RIGHT NOW ON THAT. KEYES

&&

.AVIATION...REGION WILL RESIDE SOUTH OF THE MAIN STORM TRACK THROUGH
THE PERIOD...ENSURING THE PERSISTENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS AND
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS UNDER 10 KTS AT ALL TAF SITES. AD/JAH

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
ALONG AND NEAR THE ID/MT BORDER MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING PERIODS THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING OVER HIGH TERRAIN ON SAT AND SUN. OTHERWISE...DRY
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES
BECOMING INCREASINGLY HOTTER EACH DAY. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING ALMOST 20 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE IN MANY AREAS. WINDS SHOULD BE GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH
THE PERIOD. AD/JAH

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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