Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 231931
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
131 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

STREAM OF MOISTURE IS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS IS PRODUCING SOME RAIN SHOWERS AND HIGH ELEVATION
SNOW TO PARTS OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE STREAM OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING SLOWLY
MOVING NORTHWARD ON FRIDAY. SNOW LEVELS ARE SITTING AROUND 8500 FEET
WITH A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE. AS THE STREAM OF MOISTURE
MOVES NORTH OF FRIDAY VERY WARM AIR WILL PUMP INTO THE REGION FROM
THE SOUTH. MANY LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL SEE
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70. SATURDAY LOOKS WARM AND DRY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE IN THE LOW 70S FOR MANY
LOCATIONS WHICH IS ONLY A COUPLE DEGREES OFF THE RECORDS. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
BRING MUCH COLDER AIR TO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY WITH TEMPS ABOUT 20
DEGREES COOLER. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO AROUND 6500 FEET AND THERE
WILL BE SOME SHOWERS AROUND...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHLANDS.
A FEW OF THE MOUNTAIN PASSES MAINLY GOING INTO MONTANA AND WYOMING
COULD SEE A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW ON THEM.

VALLE

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THU NIGHT. SUN STORM
LINGERS INTO MON WITH MAIN FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION...INCLUDING
LIGHT SNOW...IN THE ID-MT AND ID-WY BORDER REGION. THERE IS FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF UNTIL THE LAST 36 HOURS
OR SO...ALTHOUGH THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE WETTER. THERE IS ANOTHER
WEAK TROUGH TUE NIGHT INTO WED. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION APPEARS
TERRAIN INDUCED IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS FOR THE WEST NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW. AT THE TAIL END OF THIS PERIOD...THE GFS IS ACTUALLY DRIER
THAN THE ECMWF WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN. THE ECMWF HOLDS ON WITH
THE TROUGHING BY ABOUT A DAY...DRYING OUT JUST AFTER THE END OF
THIS PERIOD. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THIS WILL BE AN ACTIVE PERIOD
WITH THE RISK OF OVERNIGHT SNOW EVEN AS LOW AS THE SNAKE RIVER
PLAIN. THUS...PEOPLE NEED TO START ANTICIPATING WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS THIS COMING WEEK AND GETTING IN THAT MIND-SET...SO TAKE
MEASURES NOW. MESSICK

&&

.AVIATION...MID-LEVEL CIGS SHOULD DISAPPEAR DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS FOR THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AND EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY AIRDROMES
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN A LITTLE BIT MORE FROM THE SOUTH. THIS
WILL PUT THE MOISTURE PLUME COMING IN FROM THE PACIFIC MORE SQUARELY
OVER THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS. KSUN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND KEEP
LOW CIGS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...THEN LIFT TO MID-LEVEL BY OPENING FRI
MORNING. NO SIGNIFICANT WIND UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND NO VSBY
IMPACT WITH LIGHT RAIN ONLY POSSIBLE AT KSUN. MESSICK

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




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