Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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629
FXUS65 KPIH 041636
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
936 AM MST THU FEB 4 2016

.UPDATE...REVISED FORECAST AMOUNTS TO REFLECT LATEST TIMING FROM
04/12Z GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONS THAT INDICATE SOME PLACES ALREADY
IN THE VALLEY HAVE 3 INCHES OF SNOW.  MESSICK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 AM MST THU FEB 4 2016/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR SNAKE RIVER PLAIN
AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS THROUGH 11 PM. SNOW HAS MOVED INTO MAGIC
VALLEY AND SNAKE PLAIN AS OF 3 AM AND CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST.
STILL THINK 1 TO 3 INCH GENERAL SNOW AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH
POTENTIALLY UP TO 5 INCHES IN EASTERN HIGHLANDS WHERE SNOW SHOULD
LINGER THE LONGEST INTO FRIDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE AGAIN MAINLY IN SNAKE PLAIN
AND SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW. TRAVEL WILL BE DIFFICULT IN MANY LOCATIONS FOR RUSH
HOUR TODAY WHICH IS WHY THE ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. SHOULD BE DRY
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS UPPER RIDGE PUSHES EAST WITH THE NEXT
SYSTEM SLIDING THROUGH SATURDAY WITH LIGHT SNOW LIKELY MAINLY IN
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS. COULD SEE SOME BREEZY
CONDITIONS WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL. RIDGE REBUILDS TO WEST ON
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF IN THE EAST. COLD
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY BUT SHOULD BE WARMER THAN LAST
FEW DAYS WITH MORE WARMING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TO EVEN ABOVE
NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
GK

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL
BE DOMINATED BY A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST. THIS
WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS. THIS WILL ALSO LEAD TO INVERSION
CONDITIONS...WITH MILD DAYTIME TEMPS AND COLD NIGHTS IN THE VALLEYS.
PATCHY NIGHTTIME FOG AND LOW CLDS MAY ALSO BE AN ISSUE IN THE SNAKE
RIVER PLAIN. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN SYNC WITH THIS FEATURE...AT
LEAST THRU WED. THE GFS MAINTAINS THE RIDGE THRU THE PERIOD...BUT
THE ECMWF BEGINS TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE ALLOWING SOME PAC MOISTURE TO
SPILL OVER INTO THE CENTRAL MTNS THU NIGHT. WILL HOLD ONTO THE DRY
CONDITIONS FOR NOW. HEDGES

AVIATION...LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
BRINGING REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND OCNL IFR CIGS. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN IMPROVING FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTN...BUT LOW
CIGS COULD PERSIST UNTIL EVENING. HEDGES

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR
IDZ019>021-023-025.

&&

$$



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