Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 240313

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
913 PM MDT SAT JUL 23 2016

.UPDATE...The threat of thunderstorms this evening near Monida
Pass and Island Park has ended and will drop this from the
forecast. RS


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 207 PM MDT SAT JUL 23 2016/

Discussion...Shortwave passing through SE Idaho this afternoon
and evening. Winds remain gusty this afternoon across the region
ahead of shortwave but below all headline thresholds. Models
continue to support isolated convection along Continental Divide
associated with this feature. Have maintained low pops with
thunderstorm mention along MT border. Timing of shortwave passage
should coincide with loss of daytime heating so expect convection
to dissipate around sunset. Otherwise ridge redevelops across
region into early next week. Another shortwave drives across the
panhandle late Monday. Have kept forecast area dry as models
continue trend of keeping convection focused around but not in SE
Idaho. Could see a similar feature late Wednesday as well and
again with similar results. Otherwise expect temperatures to
rebound to above normal levels for much of the week. Four corners
high strengthens into next weekend. GFS and EC differ slightly on
how far west to slide the high, and therefore remain quite a bit
different on the potential for moisture surge through the Great
Basin into the region. Will maintain persistent dry and warm
forecast until picture clears. DMH

AVIATION...The region will continue to reside beneath a dry
westerly flow through the period, promoting mainly clear skies and
gusty west-southwest afternoon and early evening winds today for
BYI...IDA and PIH. Winds should subside by 03Z at these sites. With
lighter winds aloft tomorrow, surface winds at terminal sites will
be primarily terrain-driven and lighter on Sunday. AD/DMH

FIRE WEATHER...A weak disturbance is gliding eastward across the
region today, brining with it some gusty winds. Winds will near Red
Flag criteria this afternoon across the Arco Desert and INL. Winds
should diminish quickly this evening. Dry southwesterly flow will
then become re-established across the region Sunday and Monday
bringing continued dry conditions with low minimum relative humidity
values and an increase in temperatures to 5 to 10 degrees above
normal for highs. Winds should be mainly light and terrain-driven on
Sunday. Another weak disturbance will track eastward across the area
Monday and Tuesday resulting in an increase in winds, with afternoon
and early evening winds approaching Red Flag criteria across the
Arco Desert once again. Isolated thunderstorms appear possible with
this disturbance, mainly along the Montana border region Tuesday
afternoon and evening. A ridge of high pressure is slated to take up
residence across the Great Basin by mid-week, ensuring a
continuation of dry westerly flow across SE Idaho through the
remainder of the week. Thus, mainly dry conditions are expected
Wednesday through Friday along with a continuation of above average
temperatures and low minimum relative humidity values. At this time,
no widespread windy conditions are expected for the second half of
the week, but occasionally breezy conditions are possible especially
during the afternoon and early evening hours Wednesday through
Friday. Isolated thunderstorms appear possible next weekend as some
monsoonal moisture is potentially ingested into the region. AD/DMH


.PIH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

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