Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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000
FXUS65 KPIH 260942
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
342 AM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. EXPECT CLEAR AND DRY
CONDITIONS TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN PLACE. SUNDAY
MODELS CONTINUE TO START TO BRING IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE FROM OUR
SOUTH. MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE.
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO REMAIN IN UTAH THOUGH A ROGUE THUNDERSTORM
MAY CROSS OVER THE UTAH LINE INTO OUR AREA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO NEAR NORMAL TODAY.
SUNDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

WYATT

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
WEEK MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT GUSTY OUTFLOWS OF AROUND 45
MPH IN AND AROUND THUNDERSTORMS PARTICULARLY EARLY IN THE WEEK.
NOW THE MODELS ARE BRINGING IN AN WAVE ON TUESDAY INSTEAD OF
WEDNESDAY. MODELS SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WELL OVER AN INCH
ON TUESDAY. EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON THOUGH THERE IS SOME MODEL UNCERTAINTY
CURRENTLY. LOOK FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING WITH
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY. EXPECT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH MONSOON MOISTURE
STAYING IN PLACE. MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT ON TIMING AND
INTENSITY OF ADDITIONAL WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

WYATT

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH LIGHT
WINDS TODAY. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHICH
WILL PRODUCE A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

VALLE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER TODAY ALONG
WITH LIGHT WINDS. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. BY
MONDAY...THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BE ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION
PRODUCING A HIGHER THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

VALLE

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






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