Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 160839
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
239 AM MDT WED JUL 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WE WILL CONTINUE TO BE
IN NORTHERLY FLOW TODAY IN THE WAVE OF THE STORM EAST OF THE
DIVIDE. AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVES AWAY...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR SOME CLOUDS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PERHAPS A
STORM OR TWO. BY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...IT LOOKS LIKE MORE
AFTERNOON CLOUDS AND MAYBE A STORM OR TWO AS WELL AS A BATCH OF
MOISTURE WORKS INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. WE WILL BE COOLER
TEMPORARILY UNDER THIS PATTERN AND A BIT BREEZY OUT OF THE NORTH
OR NORTHWEST. WE SHOULD REMAIN RIGHT BELOW THE CRITERIA FOR THE
NORTHERLY WIND PATTERN ON AMERICAN FALLS RESERVOIR...AT LEAST IT
LOOKS LIKE FOR NOW. WE TRANSITION TO MORE OF A WESTERLY FLOW
BY TOMORROW AS THE NEXT STORM APPROACHES. WE WILL CATCH THE TAIL
END OF IT...BUT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND SUPPORT FOR
AFTERNOON STORMS TO DEVELOP NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM STANLEY TO
BLACKFOOT TO ALPINE. WE SHOULD SEE BRIEF DOWNPOURS BUT ONLY
AMOUNTING TO A COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST.
GUSTY WINDS OVER 40 MPH SHOULD BE THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THESE
STORMS. STORMS SHOULD BE DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS CLOSER TO THE FOUR CORNERS ON FRIDAY...A SURGE OF MONSOON
MOISTURE WILL CREEP INTO EASTERN IDAHO. THIS WILL HELP KICK OFF
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS NORTH FROM AROUND ARCO TO WEST
OF MONIDA PASS...AND MORE LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS CLOSER TO THE
UTAH BORDER. AGAIN...IMPACTS FROM THOSE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE
GUSTY WINDS WITH LITTLE RAIN. WE GO INTO SOUTHWEST FLOW AFTER THIS
AS THE RIDGE REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH AND LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WESTERN CANADA. THE MAIN PUSH OF
MOISTURE TAKES ITS TIME WORKING IN HERE. SATURDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE
ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE CONFINED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF
OF OUR AREA. SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS ALTHOUGH
THE MODELS ARE STILL WAVERING ON HOW STRONG THE SURGE WILL BE. THE
GFS IS A LOT DRIER THAN THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF. THE CURRENT
FORECAST LEANS A LOT CLOSER TO THE GFS BUT THAT COULD EASILY
CHANGE DEPENDING ON HOW LATER MODEL FORECASTS TREND. SIMILAR
TRENDS BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. BOTH
MODELS ARE HOWEVER TRENDING TOWARD ANY CHANCE OF RAIN AND
THUNDERING BEING CONFINED TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND UPPER SNAKE
HIGHLANDS. THE FORECAST THIS MORNING WILL REFLECT THIS PATTERN AS
WELL. WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW...EXPECT WARMER TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY
COME BACK. HIGHS WILL BE HELD BACK A FEW DEGREES SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AT THIS POINT DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT WILL ALSO
BE A BIT BREEZY BUT NO MAJOR WIND EVENTS (EXCEPT MAYBE OUTSIDE OF
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS) ARE ANTICIPATED.  KEYES

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS. NO
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. EP

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN ZONES 410 AND 425
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS THE AREA SEES A BREAK FROM THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON PRODUCING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN ZONES 475 476 410 411
AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF 413. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...OUTFLOWS...AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING.
EP

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






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