Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 201609
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
1009 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

.UPDATE...WATCHING SATELLITE IMAGERY FOR SIGNS OF ENERGY MOVING
NORTH FROM THE LOW ENTERING CALIFORNIA. NAM12 MODEL SUGGEST THERE
WILL BE SOME ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON BRUSH THE SUN VALLEY AREA AND
THE WEST SIDE WITH POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH SMALL HAIL
AND HEAVY RAIN. THINK IT WILL BE LESS THAN A FLASH FLOOD TYPE
EVENT. GRASS SEEMS TO BE RECOVERING ON THE OLD BEAVER FIRE BURN
AREA AND REDUCING THE RISK OF SIGNIFICANT RUN OFF. RS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 202 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2015/

DISCUSSION...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER IS UPON US. WV
IMAGERY SHOWS MOISTURE CONTINUING TO STREAM INTO THE AREA FROM THE
EAST AS IT IS WRAPPED AROUND AN UPPER LOW IN WYOMING. NO CURRENT
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY AS AIRMASS HAS BECOME MORE STABLE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME RESIDUAL LIGHT RAIN
OVER SOUTHEAST IDAHO HOWEVER. A SERIES OF UPPER LOWS WILL DROP
INTO THE TROUGH ESTABLISHED OVER THE WEST. WRAP- AROUND MOISTURE
FROM THE FIRST LOW WILL TAPER OFF THIS MORNING AS A SECOND LOW
DROPS OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST BY TOMORROW MORNING. THIS PATTERN
LEAVES CWA IN MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING AS THE
LOW SLIDES EASTWARD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. MODELS ARE
REMARKABLY IN AGREEMENT ON THE PATH OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT
TRANSITS THE WEST AND BEGINS LIFTING ACROSS UTAH BY SATURDAY
MORNING. A THIRD LOW WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION FROM AROUND
VANCOUVER ISLAND...THOUGH THERE IS A DISCREPANCY ON THE PATH OF
THE LOW WITH THE GFS TAKING A MORE SOUTHWARD TRACK THAN THE ECMWF.
BOTH SOLUTIONS COME WITH A WIDESPREAD QPF FIELD ACROSS THE AREA.

AVIATION...AS A WEAK UPPER LOW MOVES THRU THE GREAT BASIN
TODAY...SCT SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THIS
AFTN. A FEW TSTMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THIS AFTN AND EVE. VFR CIGS/VIS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL...WITH BORDERLINE VFR CIGS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.
HEDGES

FIRE WEATHER...AS ONE UPPER LOW AFTER ANOTHER MOVES THROUGH THE
WEST...SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
PREVALENT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
READINGS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH. HEDGES

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$


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