Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 232137
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
237 PM MST TUE DEC 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...A WINTER STORM IS HEADED OUR WAY TOMORROW EARLY
EVENING INTO CHRISTMAS DAY. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR OUR AREA EXCEPT FOR THE BEAR LAKE REGION WITH THE
WASATCH MOUNTAINS WHERE A WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED.

A MOIST UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DROP INTO THE AREA BRINGING 2 TO 4
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF SNOW ACROSS THE VALLEY
FLOOR WITH 5 TO 10 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS. EXPECT 12 TO 24 INCHES OF SNOW FOR THE WASATCH
MOUNTAINS IN THE BEAR LAKE REGION. TIMING OF THE SNOW ACROSS THE
VALLEY FLOOR MAY BE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN AS SNOW LEVELS WILL
START AROUND 5500 FEET BRINGING RAIN FIRST BEFORE TURNING TO SNOW
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 5 AM FOR MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS. ALSO..EXPECT
MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
MAGIC VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS CREATING BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW ISSUES. I-84 FROM BURLEY TO THE UTAH LINE WILL
LIKELY BE IMPACTED WITH A ROAD CLOSURE FROM BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW. I-86 FROM BURLEY TO POCATELLO WILL LIKELY BE IMPACTED BY
BLOWING AND DRIFTING AND SNOW AS WELL. MODERATE WINDS OF 25 TO 35
MPH ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL OTHER AREAS PARTICULARLY FOR MOUNTAIN
PASSES AND THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN CREATING AREAS OF BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW. DRIVING WILL BE DIFFICULT AND HAZARDOUS ACROSS THE
AREA CHRISTMAS EVENING THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF CHRISTMAS DAY
PARTICULARLY EARLY IN THE DAY. PLEASE USE CAUTION WHEN DRIVING AND
ADJUST TRAVEL PLANS IF POSSIBLE. WYATT

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT BEGINS
WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WHICH SHOULD KEEP AREA FAIRLY DRY...BUT
LEFT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OVER THE SOUTHEAST HIGHLANDS WHERE
UPSLOPE-INDUCED PRECIP IS MOST FAVORED. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH DROPS IN OUT OF
BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS IS BEST SEEN ON THE PARALLEL GFS AND ECMWF
RUNS...BUT OPERATIONAL GFS HAS BACKED OFF FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND
MAINTAINS A DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW. PARALLEL GFS ALSO MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPING OVER THE EAST PACIFIC WITH A CUTOFF
LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY NIGHT.
OPERATIONAL GFS DROPS A FAIRLY WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER THE AREA
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. HAVE
NUDGED TEMPS DOWNWARD WHICH IS MORE CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS GFS/EC
RUNS AND CURRENT PARALLEL GFS RUN. LIKE THE OPERATIONAL GFS...ECMWF
IS ALSO BACKING OFF ON A HIGH-AMPLITUDE BLOCK OVER THE EAST PACIFIC.
THERE REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS WE HEAD INTO 2015 WITH REGARDS
TO THE UPPER PATTERN.  HINSBERGER


&&

.AVIATION...LINGERING IFR CEILING IS EXPECTED AT KIDA THROUGH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. UP-VALLEY WIND SHIFT AT KSUN MAY BRING IN SOME STRATUS THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT NOTHING SUGGESTS DROPPING BELOW VFR AT THIS POINT.
ANOTHER ROUND OF MORNING FOG/STRATUS MAY OCCUR AGAIN AT KIDA AND IS
SUPPORTED BY BOTH NAM AND GFS GUIDANCE. LIGHT WINDS AT ALL LOCATIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. HINSBERGER


&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM WEDNESDAY TO 5 PM MST THURSDAY
IDZ017-019>024-032.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 2 PM MST THURSDAY
IDZ018-031.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM WEDNESDAY TO 5 PM MST THURSDAY
IDZ025.

&&

$$






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