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000
FXUS65 KPIH 091507
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
907 AM MDT WED APR 9 2014

.UPDATE...SAT IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE AXIS MOVING QUICKLY THROUGH
WASHINGTON STATE INTO PANHANDLE REGION THIS MORNING. MODERATE
WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT BEGINNING TO APPEAR WITH GUSTS WELL OVER 40
MPH AT HIGHER ELEVATION MESONET STATION IN CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
MODELS MAINTAIN INSTABILITY MAINLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUS WILL CONTINUE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM MENTION. SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS ROUGHLY 40MPH.
SUSTAINED WINDS THE GREATER IMPACT THROUGH TODAY AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE. STRONGEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SNAKE PLAIN WITH
WIND SPEEDS ROUGHLY 25-30MPH. THIS IS BELOW WIND ADVISORY
THRESHOLD BUT WITHIN BLOWING DUSTY ADVISORY THRESHOLD.
AGRICULTURAL ACTIVITY PICKING UP ALREADY SO BELIEVE CURRENT
HEADLINE A GOOD CALL AND WILL LEAVE IN PLACE. DMH

&&

.AVIATION...A WEAK TROUGH PASSING NORTH OF OUR AREA TODAY WILL BRING
BREEZY TO MODERATE WINDS LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
EXPECT BLOWING DUST ACROSS THE EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND SNAKE RIVER
PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBILITIES SHOULD DROP SLIGHTLY BUT STILL
REMAIN MVFR THIS AFTERNOON FOR BYI...PIH AND IDA. THERE IS ALSO A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR VICINITY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
FOR SUN AND TO A LESSER EXTENT FOR IDA. WYATT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 AM MDT WED APR 9 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRI NIGHT. WEAK TROUGH PASSING TO THE
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE MONTANA AND WYOMING BORDER
REGIONS. BESIDES THIS WEAK PRECIPITATION THREAT...THE TROUGH WILL
BRING WINDY AND DUSTY CONDITIONS TO THE FORECAST AREA...ALONG WITH
CLOUDINESS. WILL ISSUE A BLOWING DUST ADVISORY FOR THE PRIMARY AG
LOCATIONS. SLIGHTLY COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT BY THU THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT BUILDS IN BEHIND FOR ABOUT A DAY AND A HALF
HAS BROUGHT TEMPERATURES BACK EVEN WARMER THAN TODAY BY FRI. GUSTY
WIND WITH GOOD MIXING EACH AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED. ON FRI...THE
NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH MAKES ITS APPROACH WITH FIRST INCREASING
CLOUDINESS AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY WIND. HIGHS CONTINUE FOR ALL
PERIODS TO BE 10 TO 15 DEG F ABOVE NORMAL AND LOWS 5 TO 10 DEG F
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. MESSICK

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MODELS IN AGREEMENT OF A
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW AND PASSING OVER SE ID
ON SATURDAY AND EXITING RATHER QUICKLY.  THIS WILL PRODUCE BREEZY
CONDITIONS IN THE SNAKE PLAIN WITH A QUICK CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS.
MODELS DIVERGE PRETTY QUICKLY AFTER SUNDAY ALTHOUGH ARE HINTING AT
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE ON TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS POINT
FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. EP

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WINDS
PICKING UP LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNSET. EP

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLOWING DUST ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
IDZ017-021.

BLOWING DUST ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM MDT THIS
EVENING IDZ020.

&&

$$