197
FXUS65 KPIH 070403
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
1003 PM MDT Sun Jul 6 2025

...NEW AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Today will be the last day (for a while) for near normal
  temperatures with highs only in the 70s and 80s.

- A warming trend is expected with very hot temperatures this
  coming week. Temperatures will return to the mid 80s to mid
  to upper 90s and even approaching 100 for lower elevations by
  next Tuesday and Wednesday.

- A trough/weak upper level low moving through late Tuesday
  into Thursday will bring breezy conditions and afternoon,
  mostly mountain, dry isolated thunderstorms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 119 PM MDT Sun Jul 6 2025

You`d be hard pressed to find clouds this afternoon when looking
at visible satellite imagery. There are a few up towards Monida
Pass and across the higher terrain of the central mountains but
they are few and far between. This will be the norm over the
next few days as high pressure remains in place, and builds
further, as we move through the next few days. Under the ridge,
skies will remain clear and precip free along with light winds
and gradually warming temperatures. We will climb into the low
to mid 80s across lower elevations today before the day is over
but will begin to crank up the heat starting tomorrow as low 90s
return in parts of the Snake Plain and Magic Valley.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 119 PM MDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Not much changes as we get into the extended portion of the
forecast period. The ridge will remain in place across the Four
Corners region with H5 heights rising even more as we get in to
Tuesday and Wednesday. These appear to be the hottest days of
the week with mid to upper 90s forecast across the lower
elevations. Models may have trended down a degree or two over
the last 24 hours but it`s still going to be hot regardless. A
shortwave will sweep through the region late Wednesday and into
Thursday and this feature COULD spark a shower or thunderstorm
across the central mountains on Wednesday but chances seem too
low (less than 15%) to include in the forecast at this time.
Winds will pick up as this feature approaches and will continue
into the day on Thursday which could lead to some fire weather
concerns both afternoons. Temps will drop a touch behind this
shortwave, closer to normal, which means mid to upper 80s for
highs on Thursday and Friday which precip chances remain very
low. As we approach next weekend, models signal towards ridging
building back over the area which would keep things dry and
allow temps to return back into the 90s across lower elevations.
Anybody hoping for widespread precipitation anytime soon looks
like they`re going to be waiting awhile.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1002 PM MDT Sun Jul 6 2025

VFR weather with a few mid level clouds around for the next 24
hours. For SUN, there will be a window from very late morning
through mid afternoon where southerly winds COULD be strong
enough to impact air traffic.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 119 PM MDT Sun Jul 6 2025

High pressure currently locked in over the northern Rockies and
the Great Basin means a warming and drying trend into
Wednesday. Afternoon high temperatures in the 90s at low
elevations will return Mon, then Tue and Wed should be near
record heat. This will mean a drop in afternoon humidity with
widespread low elevations drying to below the critical threshold
of 15 percent. The strong heating will make the instability in
the afternoon quite high, with mixing heights getting rather
large even for this time of year for Tue and Wed.

On Wed night, an upper level trough should push through southern
Idaho, bringing back a thunderstorm and shower threat, increased
wind on Wed, perhaps enough for a critical fire weather day,
but then a cooling trend starting Thu. Expect stronger wind from
Thu onwards as warming and drying return.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...McKaughan
LONG TERM...McKaughan
AVIATION...Keyes
FIRE WEATHER...Messick