Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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510
FXUS65 KPIH 280912
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
212 AM MST Mon Nov 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday night. The story the day for
many will be snow and wind. The focus for snow continues to be
across portions of the central mountains, eastern and southern
highlands plus along the interstate corridor from Idaho Falls
through Burley. The main band will swing through during the early
to mid morning hours, with winds either staying pretty gusty or
increasing along/behind it depending on location. While there may
not be a lot of snow with this band, the wind and timing during
the morning drive will make it a bit tricky in many locations. By
late morning and afternoon, many areas will see a decrease in
widespread snow and things becoming more showery. The EXCEPTION
will be across the southern/southeastern highlands and along the
interstate corridor from Idaho Falls to Coldwater. Snow will
continue across those highlands areas especially where upslope is
favored in northwest flow. The higher resolution models like the
NAM and HRRR indicate a convergence band combined with upslope
will keep some snow going across portions of the Snake Plain. The
strongest winds still look to be from Pocatello westward and south
into the south central highlands. Winds in these areas will peak
between 25-35mph sustained with gusts of 40+mph. They will be
higher off the valley floor south of the Snake River, with some
places briefly exceeding 60mph based on the latest forecast.
Headlines will remain in place although we may be able to adjust
some timing during the day based on how things progress. Based on
how much snow falls across the Magic Valley, blowing snow may not
be an issue and the impacts end up being purely based on wind and
not blowing snow. Snow amounts will generally be 1-2 inches for
the Upper Snake Highlands and central mountains. For the Snake
Plain, expect up to 2 inches along the travel corridor with
locally higher amounts on the benches. For the southern and
eastern highlands, look for 1-3 inches down low and 3-6 inches at
mid and upper slopes. Locally higher amounts are possible.
Tonight, some showers will continue especially across the
southeast highlands. Through this evening, the models still point
to lingering snow from around Blackfoot to Coldwater associated
with the dying convergence band and upslope. Winds will die down
but still remain a bit gusty coming across portions of the central
mountains and the south central highlands.

Conditions will dry out more on Tuesday ahead of the next storm.
It will remain cold as we stay in northwest flow. Tuesday night,
it looks like we could see some fog and light snow/flurries across
portions of the Upper Snake Plain and Highlands. Keyes

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Monday. Models in much better
agreement tonight. Upper ridge still expected to fold across the
region Wednesday though weak upslope could keep precip going in
northeast corner. Stronger shortwave drops through PacNW states into
Idaho Wednesday night into Thursday with snow spreading across the
region. Low appears to close off somewhere over Idaho Thursday
though there are still minor differences in location. Low drops
through four corners area Friday with next ridge folding over Idaho.
Moist northwest flow sets up with Friday night through Sunday
though models keep moisture spread through panhandle into MT. Have
kept weak pops over northern zones and across eastern highlands.
Stronger feature drops into Idaho Monday with ECMWF stronger than
GFS and further south with precipitation. Opted for blend with
increased precip chances most areas. DMH

&&

.AVIATION...Precipitation gradually filling in across the region
this morning though northwest flow aloft keeping most portions of
Snake Plain dry so far. Expect cigs/vis to lower to MVFR as snow
begins with occasional IFR in heaviest bands. Conditions improve to
mainly scattered MVFR snow showers this afternoon. Winds remain
strong through the day with Snake Plain terminals KPIH/KBYI
sustained around 25kts. Depending on how much snow accumulates
early, this could limit visibilities this afternoon in BLSN.
Gradient turns north late today with winds decreasing during the
evening. Isolated showers could continue overnight at terminals but
overall conditions should improve to VFR with occasional MVFR. DMH

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM MST this evening for IDZ017-
020>025.

&&

$$



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