Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 141424
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
825 AM MDT TUE OCT 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THU NIGHT. A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT UPDATE
THIS MORNING TO REDUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY PRECIPITATION WITHIN
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY/TONIGHT AND INCREASED THE CHANCE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION. SEE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW. HUSTON

INCREASING CLOUDINESS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES THE GEM STATE AND THEN MOVES THROUGH DURING THE DAY WED.
THIS IS DEFINITELY THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM OF THE WEEK. THE
PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE WINDS WILL BE TRICKY...BUT SHOULD START GUSTING
EARLY WED. THIS COULD MEAN VERY MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH ALL THE
ADIABATIC MIXING CONTINUING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GFS HAS BEEN
THE WINDIER SOLUTION AND THUS IS AS MUCH AS 10 DEG F WARMER IN THE
MOS GUIDANCE FOR SOME LOCATIONS FOR THE TONIGHT LOW. BASED ON THE
OVERALL PATTERN...AM TENDING TO BELIEVE THE GFS IS MORE ACCURATE.
RAIN THE LOCAL WIND STUDY SCHEME AND IT SCORED IN THE LOW CONFIDENT
WIND ADVISORY DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...AND BY LATE
AFTERNOON WAS SOLIDLY IN THE WIND ADVISORY CATEGORY. HOWEVER...SOME
BOUNDARY LAYER WIND FORECASTS WOULD INDICATE GOOD POTENTIAL FOR A
HIGH WIND WATCH. THE GFS WAS EVEN STRONGER WITH THE WIND
SPEEDS...ALMOST HIGH WIND WATCH. THUS WILL ALLOW ANOTHER LOOK BY THE
ONCOMING SHIFTS TO SEE IF THE SITUATION CONTINUES TO INDICATE
ADVISORY LEVEL.

ONCE THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DEPART LATE WED
NIGHT...ZONAL FLOW LASTS ABOUT A DAY PRIOR TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
MOVING IN. COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR WED AND THU NIGHT AS WINDS SETTLE
QUICKLY. MESSICK

.LONG TERM...FRI THROUGH NEXT MON NIGHT. THE RIDGE FOLLOWING THE
WED/WED NIGHT STORM IS MUCH MUCH STRONGER ON THE ECMWF AND THE
FORECAST FOLLOWING THIS GUIDANCE WOULD BE VERY DRY AND WARM. THIS IS
A CONTINUATION OF YESTERDAYS DILEMMA FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST.
HAVE SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE...BUT HAVE NOTED THAT THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
PERFORMING BETTER LATELY IN THIS PERIOD. SO HAVE WARMED AND DRIED
THINGS FROM THE GFS SOLUTION...BUT HAVE NOT TOTALLY DISREGARDED IT.
MESSICK
&&

.AVIATION...TODAY...VFR. SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH OVER THE
HIGHLANDS SOUTH OF KBYI AND KPIH. WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT WILL PASS
KSUN ABOUT 15/13Z AND REACHES THE UPPER SNAKE PLAIN BY 15/19Z.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE SNAKE PLAIN 25 TO 35 GUST 45
MPH. SOME FIELDS ARE BEING PLOWED AND MAY CONTRIBUTE TO LOCAL
BLOWING DUST. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...INCLUDING KSUN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. RS
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WARM UP 8 TO 10 DEGREES IN
MOST AREAS OF SOUTHEAST IDAHO UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY EVENING IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS FROM ROGERSON TO
MALAD. GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE OVER EXPOSED RIDGE TOPS AND
FAVORED SOUTHERLY DOWNSLOPE AREAS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 84 AND 86
CORRIDOR.  THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS STANLEY ABOUT 0700
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND ARCO ABOUT 1300 HOURS. THE SNAKE PLAIN WILL BE
WINDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. ELSEWHERE...A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. RS
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









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