Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 102000
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
200 PM MDT WED SEP 10 2014

.DISCUSSION...WV SAT IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LOW OVER NORTHWEST
MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH MODERATE
GRADIENT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN MAGIC
VALLEY AND LOWER SNAKE PLAIN TODAY. STRONG SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED
WITH UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH IDAHO PANHANDLE SHOULD SLIDE
THROUGH EASTERN IDAHO DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. CLOUD FIELD AHEAD
OF SHORTWAVE AXIS BUT UPSTREAM FLOW FOR EAST IDAHO MAINLY DRY SO
EXPECT LIMITED IMPACT OVERALL. COLD FRONT POISED JUST NORTH OF
FORECAST AREA WILL DROP THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF
SHORTWAVE AXIS...LEADING TO COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. NORTHEAST WIND LIKELY ENOUGH TO PRODUCE BEST THREAT FOR
CHOP ON AMERICAN FALLS RESERVIOR SO LAKE WIND ADVISORY POSSIBLE
FOR THURSDAY AS WELL. THURSDAY NIGHT APPEARS TO CARRY THE LOWEST
MIN TEMPS OF THE WEEK. FREEZE LIKELY ESPECIALLY LOWER AND UPPER
SNAKE PLAINS...AND COULD BE COLD ENOUGH IN SPOTS TO REACH HARD
KILLING FREEZE OF BELOW 28 DEG. WILL LEAVE CURRENT FREEZE WATCH IN
PLACE WITH EXPECTATION OF UPGRADE TO WARNING BEFORE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST RIGHT IN THE MIDDLE OF MODEL SPREAD SO
HAVE ROOM TO GO IN EITHER DIRECTION. EAST IDAHO REMAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF DRY UPPER TROUGH SO TEMPS REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OF
NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO NOSE
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. MOST INTERESTING FEATURE OF
NOTE IS REMNANTS OF PACIFIC LOW TRYING TO EJECT NORTHEAST ALONG
COAST INTO NOSE OF RIDGE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. GFS AND ECMWF
DIFFER ON HOW STRONG THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE...AND GFS A BIT MORE
MOIST ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LEADING INTO THAT PERIOD. WILL
CONTINUE NUDGING POPS TOWARD CLIMO NEARING TUESDAY...ALONG WITH
SLOWLY WARMING TEMPS THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. OTHERWISE
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DMH


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE
DIVIDE. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL WEAKEN A BIT AND SWITCH TO NORTH
TO NORTHEAST BY MORNING AREAWIDE AND REMAIN FROM THAT DIRECTION ALL
DAY THURSDAY.  KEYES


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...EXCEPT FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
THAT WILL BE AROUND THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.  THE BREEZY WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS FROM TODAY WILL SWITCH TO MORE NORTH TO NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT AND LAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WE WILL SEE COOLER
WEATHER AS WELL FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY MORNING
WHERE A WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE IS FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...KEEPING US DRY BUT ALLOWING FOR WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO RETURN. A WEAK SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TOP THE RIDGE
NEXT TUESDAY...BUT THE SYSTEM LOOKS MORE AND MORE LIKE IT WILL ONLY
CLIP THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS WITH A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS. KEYES


&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
IDZ017-020-021.

&&

$$







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