Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 290837
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
237 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WED NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN
ITS MOVE SOUTHWARD AND ALLOW THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT TO PASS
THROUGH THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...CONTINUING EASTWARD DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. IT
WILL BRING A VERY MOIST AIRMASS...AND SO PORTIONS OF THE CUSTER
COUNTY AND THE SALMON-CHALLIS NF WILL BE UNDER MARGINAL CONDITIONS
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE SAME IS TRUE FOR THE ID-MT BORDER
REGION. AS THE FRONT PASSES...LATE TONIGHT AND FOR TUE MORNING THE
SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD...INCLUDING THE BEAR LAKE BASIN BY
TUE AFTERNOON. ON WED...BEHIND THE FRONT...A MUCH DRIER NORTHWESTERLY
AIR FLOW WILL DEVELOP. THIS WILL END THE RECORD-BREAKING
HEAT...BUT WITH THE CLEAR SKIES TEMPERATURES WILL STAY WELL ABOVE
NORMAL. WIND ON TUE WILL APPROACH LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
THE RESERVOIR...BUT RIGHT NOW IT IS STAYING JUST BELOW THRESHOLD.

.LONG TERM...THU THROUGH SUN NIGHT. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER NEVADA...DRY NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH AT
LEAST SAT NIGHT. LATE SUN EVENING MAY SEE THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
RETURN TO THE SOUTHERLY FLOW...WHICH WOULD BRING UP SIGNIFICANT
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS. BUT FOR NOW WILL ONLY BRING IN
PRECIPITATION FOR THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...BUT RECORDS ARE 100
AND ABOVE. EXCEPT FOR AFTERNOON BREEZY CONDITIONS DUE TO DAYTIME
HEATING...SO NOT FORSEE ANY SIGNIFICANT WIND DURING THIS PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE TOP OF THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL ENHANCE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
TODAY OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. IF ALL GOES WELL...THE MID LEVEL
WINDS FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WILL FAVOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
OVER THE TERRAIN TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF KSUN...OTHERWISE
THUNDERSTORMS VICINITY FROM 18Z-02Z NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. AT
KBYI...KPIH AND KIDA ISOALTED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DELAY A COUPLE OF
HOURS BUT BE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE EVENING...SAY 20Z TO 04Z. FOR
TUESDAY...CLOUD COVER AND WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL MAKE FOR LESS
INSTABILITY...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AT
EACH OF THE TAF SITES. RS
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A LOW PRESSURE DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE IDAHO PAN
HANDLE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTRIBUTE TO SOME WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SALMON-CHALLIS AND NORTHERN SAWTOOTH AREA. A
FEW OF THESE CELLS MAY PRODUCE AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS NEAR
NOON TIME AND CONTINUE AS LATE AS 2000 HOURS. FOR THE SNAKE PLAIN
AND SOUTHERN SAWTOOTH...AND CARIBOU-TARGHEE FOREST AREA
...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BEGIN NEAR 1400 HOURS AND CONTINUE
AS LATE AS 2200 HOURS. FOR TUESDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL PROVIDE AN INCREASED
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE SNAKE PLAIN AND SOME AFTERNOON WESTERLY
WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH. CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES COOLING 5 TO 8
DEGREES WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY. MORE WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL FAVOR
ISOALTED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...ARCO DESERT AND
ALONG THE WYOMING BORDER. RS
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE.
&&

$$


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