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569
FXUS65 KPIH 220808
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
208 AM MDT Sat Jul 22 2017

.DISCUSSION...A very dry air mass has settled over southern Idaho
this morning with only clouds for those along the Utah/Idaho and
Montana/Idaho border. While it won`t be impossible to see some
haze today from wildfires in neighboring states, satellites are
not seeing any significant smoke over Idaho this morning.
Temperatures today will once again rise into the low 90s or upper
80s across the Snake River Plain, with a similar forecast for
Sunday. Fairly light winds are forecast as well. Moisture will
return to our area Monday and persist through Thursday, bringing
periods of widespread precipitation to Idaho. At the moment, mid-
day Tuesday is looking to be the most significant rain soaker
period. Any burn scars, particularly those in the Salmon-Challis
NF, Sawtooth NF and northern portions of the Caribou-Targhee NF
will be prone to flooding concerns. Overall rainfall amounts,
without regard to what any thunderstorm rainfall could bring, may
total 1 inch or more in some locations across these National
Forests between Tuesday and Wednesday. For the rest of SE Idaho,
look for isolated to scattered rain and thunderstorms both days,
with rainfall amounts nearer to 1/2 inch. As forecast models
obtain a better picture of what these rainfall amounts will be, we
will be able to better pin down locations and timing of this
event. By Thursday, we expect overall activity to decrease with
high pressure gradually building into the region. A few isolated
showers and thunderstorms will not be impossible, particularly
over southern Idaho. Friday and Saturdays forecast at this time is
looking to bring showers to some with warming temperatures in the
90s. NP/DSH

&&

.AVIATION...
High pressure firmly in control with high confidence in VFR
conditions and light to moderate winds at all terminals. DSH

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry westerly flow will be in place through the weekend as SE Idaho
remains sandwiched between disturbances moving along the Canadian
border and monsoon moisture over the Great Basin to the south and
east. Light winds expected Saturday with an increase in winds Sunday
as an upper level disturbance moves through the Idaho Panhandle and
western Montana.  Gusty winds on Sunday are expected to approach but
remain below Red Flag thresholds.  Early next week, an upper level
trof approaches the west coast with a return to southwest flow. This
pattern change will open the door to another surge of monsoon
moisture northward out of the Great Basin for Monday through
Wednesday and lingering into Friday.  Expect isolated dry
thunderstorms developing Monday across western zones, with numerous
showers and thunderstorms expected Tuesday all areas. Thunderstorms
should transition to more of a `wet` variety due to precipitable
water values increasing to 200-250 percent of normal by Tuesday.
Locally heavy rain will be possible. Showers and isolated
thunderstorms are expected to linger through the remainder of the
week. DSH

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$