Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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223
FXUS65 KPIH 010947
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
247 AM MST MON FEB 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MAIN FEATURE TODAY IS VERY STRONG STORM SYSTEM PUSHING THROUGH THE
4 CORNERS REGION. EXPECT SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM TO STAY SOUTH AND
EAST OF IDAHO WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PERHAPS BEAR LAKE COUNTY BUT
NOTHING MORE THAN A HALF INCH OR SO EXPECTED. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS WITH COLD CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
GK

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH ADVERTISE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ARRIVING EITHER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY. MODELS STILL HAVING TROUBLE RESOLVING
TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM. GFS SEEMS TO BE MORE CONSISTENT
RUN TO RUN...HOWEVER THE 00Z GFS DID SPEED UP THE ARRIVAL INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF TAKES DIGS THIS SYSTEM INTO UTAH AND
DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW...A SOLUTION NOT SEEN BY ANY OTHER MODEL OR
PREVIOUS RUNS. FAVOR THE GFS SOLUTION BUT DID NOT INCREASE CHANCES
MUCH BECAUSE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING. THIS WILL BE SNOW FOR
ALL ELEVATIONS...AMOUNTS RIGHT NOW LOOK TO BE IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH
RANGE WITH UP TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE NEAR RIDGETOP. THIS SYSTEM CLEARS
THE REGION ON FRIDAY. GFS/ECMWF INDICATE A WEAK SYSTEM BRUSHING THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS SATURDAY WITH LIGHT SNOW
POSSIBLE. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

VALLE

&&

.AVIATION...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN UTAH
TODAY. THIS WILL BRING DRY NORTHERLY WINDS INTO THE REGION TODAY
WHICH SHOULD SCOUR MOST OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE AREA.
COULD HAVE SOME ISOLATED LOW STRATUS HANGING ON EARLY THIS MORNING.

VALLE

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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