Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 231957
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
157 PM MDT Tue May 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday. A low pressure disturbance
will track across Alberta and Saskatchewan on Wednesday, with a cold
front trailing through Southeast Idaho during the afternoon.
Southwest winds of 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 50 mph are expected
in the Snake Plain from Richfield to Hamer and Roberts. Some blowing
dust will likely develop as well. A chance of showers and
thunderstorms is possible in the South Central and Caribou
Highlands. Another disturbance drops south from Canada on Thursday
to help carve out more of a trough over this area with temperatures
about 10 degrees colder that persist through Friday. Showers will
develop over the Central Mountains and Eastern Highlands. Snow levels
only lower to around 7500 feet on those days. RS

.LONG TERM...Thursday night through Tuesday. Broad trough over the
Rockies stemming from an upper low in Saskatchewan/Alberta starting
Thursday night. The low slowly drifts eastward over the weekend as
ridging builds back into the Pac NW. One shortwave drops into the
western trough early Friday morning which will result in increased
PoPs across the region. The influence of the trough will diminish by
Saturday morning and the upper ridge becomes more established. GFS
ensemble struggles with the amplitude of the ridge Saturday night
and beyond. GFS also carves out a deeper trough downstream than the
ECMWF. With the dominance of the upper ridge, expect warm and mostly
dry conditions. Models do indicate some afternoon showers and
thunderstorms Saturday through Monday despite the subsidence present
in the upper ridge. Hinsberger

&&

.AVIATION...Fair weather will continue through the day today and
tonight under upper ridging. A cold front will push through the
region tomorrow with winds increasing late in the TAF period. No
precip is expected with the front, but BUFR soundings indicate a
brief 6000-7000 ft cloud deck coincident with the front. Terminals
should thus remain VFR through the period with strong winds starting
around late morning. Hinsberger

&&

.HYDROLOGY...The Portneuf River fell below flood stage early this
morning. At the same time, the Big Wood River at Hailey and the Big
Lost near Mackay are still at risk of additional snow melt and rain
showers the next couple of days. The cooler temperatures Thursday
and Friday may help some. Estimated rain fall for those days over
the Lost River Range and the Pioneer and White Knob Mountains
between Mackay and Hailey would be about 0.10 to 0.30 inches. RS

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Wednesday for IDZ017-020-021.

&&

$$



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