Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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000
FXUS65 KPIH 251945
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
145 PM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

AWAITING THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WHICH IS MOVING
ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE PICKING UP AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
AND ARE HIGHER THAN MODELS SUGGESTED. WINDS ARE REACHING ADVISORY
LEVELS IN THE POCATELLO AREA AND WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR
THE POCATELLO AREA UNTIL 8PM TONIGHT. MODELS ARE INDICATING
MARGINAL WIND ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SNAKE PLAIN. GIVEN THAT WINDS ARE STRONGER TODAY
THAN MODELS SUGGESTED...BELIEVE WIND ADVISORY SPEEDS LIKELY FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS FROM THE RAFT RIVER AREA TO POCATELLO TO
ARCO/IDAHO FALLS. ALSO BELIEVE THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING IN THE
SKIES ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON BECAUSE OF THE
STRONG WINDS. SOME AREAS OF BLOWING DUST IS POSSIBLE AS WELL. MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM. SUNDAY HIGH TEMPS WILL BE
20 TO 25 DEGREES COLDER THAN TODAY. STILL EXPECT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHLANDS BEGINNING TONIGHT AND
PERSISTING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 5500
FEET IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 6500 FEET IN THE EASTERN
HIGHLANDS. WARM SOIL TEMPS WILL PROBABLY LIMIT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
THEREFORE NOT EXPECTING MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE
EASTERN/SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER STILL EXPECT 2 TO 6
INCHES FROM GALENA SUMMIT TO THE STANLEY AREA. DRIER WEATHER WILL
RETURN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

VALLE

.LONG TERM...TUE NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SAT NIGHT.

TROUGH PASSAGE EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY PART OF THIS TIME HAS
SHIFTED TO FARTHER NORTH IN ITS PATTERN...LEAVING POPS 10 TO 15
PERCENT LOWER THAN EXPECTED YESTERDAY AND BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
DEVELOP STRONG RIDGING DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THIS FORECAST
FROM WED THROUGH FRI. THE ECMWF IS QUICKER TO BREAK DOWN THIS
RIDGE ON SAT/SAT NIGHT. HAVE COMPROMISED BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTION
IN THIS DIVERGENT PART...AND HAD TO LEAVE SOME POPS IN DURING THE
RIDGE SITUATION TO STAY IN COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.
WITH THE TROUGH PASSING FARTHER TO THE NORTH...THE WIND IS ALSO
NOT FORECAST TO BE AS STRONG AS PREVIOUS THINKING EITHER...AND
TEMPERATURES STAY WARMER AND THUS WARM MORE DURING THE RIDGE TIME
PERIOD...MORE THAN 10 DEG F ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. MESSICK

&&

.AVIATION...MID-LEVEL CIGS TO DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING TONIGHT
WITH VERY LITTLE RAIN EXPECTED. CIGS SHOULD LOWER TO BELOW 6000 FT
BY AIRDROME OPENING ON SUN MORNING. KSUN IS THE MOST AT RISK FOR
MARGINAL VFR...BUT STATISTICS SAY NO...SO HAVE LEFT IT JUST ABOVE
MARGINAL VFR FOR CIGS. SHOULD STAY AS ALL -RA EVENT...SO NO IMPACT
TO VSBY. WIND WILL SUBSIDE AND SHIFT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...THEN ANOTHER SHIFT DURING SUN MORNING. WIND SHOULD STAY
ELEVATED IN THE THREE VALLEY AIRPORTS...BUT KSUN HAS THE TRICKIEST
AND LOWEST CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR WIND IN THAT IT IS USUAL THAT THE
FRONT WILL PASS OVERHEAD AND LEAVE WIND LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BUT
WITH THE LATE NIGHT CLOUDS AND STRONG WINDS...THE INVERSION MAY NOT
SET UP AND ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE TO DE-COUPLE. MESSICK

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING IDZ021.

WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT SUNDAY IDZ020-021.

&&

$$




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