Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 162000

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
200 PM MDT Sat Sep 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Monday. Weak isolated showers
continue this afternoon in wake of deep early fall system. Upper
low will continue to shift into the northern Plains tonight,
leaving a brief weak ridge over East Idaho. Cool temperatures
tonight will largely depend on how much cleaning can be mustered.
Sat imagery currently favors large swath of stratus remaining
across the region. Furthermore, next shortwave axis has already
reached the coast, so upper cloud cover is already starting to
spread into the state. This could limit the amount of clearing we
see overnight, so have nudged overnight temps up a couple of
degrees. The slightly warmer overnight lows should limit the
development of frost, so removed that wording from the forecast
tonight as well. Pacific shortwave crosses the region Sunday, with
no precipitation expected but plenty of cloud cover. Flat ridge in
place late Sunday through Sunday night, but deeper trough reaches
coast by early Monday morning. Leading shortwave should start to
spread precipitation into the western edges of the forecast area
by Monday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...Monday night through Saturday. Multiple features work
through East Idaho around deepening upper low centered in the
PacNW. Windy, wet and cool will be the dominant conditions for
most of the week. Snow levels will generally fluctuate between
6500 and 7500 feet, though Wednesday could be the warmest day with
snow levels above 8000 feet. Thus expect generally valley rain and
mountain snow. Temperatures will be cool, but at this time
overnight lows are expected to remain close to but above freezing
in the lower elevations. Patchy fog might be a concern, but hard
freezes at this time are not. DMH


.AVIATION...Showers are exiting the area as an upper trough departs
to the east. KDIJ may see another round or two of snowshowers, but
should begin to improve around mid-afternoon. Another shortwave is
just making landfall on the WA/OR coast, but should produce little
in the way of precip. Expect to see a broken mid-cloud deck arrive
late morning. Hinsberger


.FIRE WEATHER...For the short-term, fair weather will be in place as
a deep upper trough departs the area. A weak shortwave trough will
pass through southeast Idaho tomorrow, but will result in little
more than some mid-level cloud cover. The weather pattern will
change on Monday as an upper low from the Gulf of Alaska drifts
southeastward, and the associated trough deepens over WA/OR. This
will bring increased chances of rain/mountain snow through much of
next week. A cold front pushing in from the northwest will also
bring strong winds Monday and Tuesday. Sustained winds 30 to 35 mph
are expected across the Snake Plain, though the humidity should be
20 to 30 percent. It will be breezy through the rest of the week
under the continued influence of the upper trough. Hinsberger



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