Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 280818
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
218 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUE NIGHT. NUMEROUS TEMPERATURE
RECORDS SET YESTERDAY...IN SPITE OF CLOUD COVER IN SOME AREAS THAT
ALSO BROUGHT DRY THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTS TO NEAR 50 MPH. VERY
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN...WITH ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND TRIGGERING MORE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE FOR A WHILE WILL
RETREAT SOUTHWARD MON AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE COMING FROM THE WEST
FLATTENS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW ON MON/MON NIGHT. FOR TUE...THE
WESTERLY FLOW WILL LIMIT CONVECTION TO THE ID-UT BORDER REGION.
THE MORE WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING COOLER AIR INTO THE FORECAST
AREA AND END THE RECORD HEAT...BUT STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. EXPECT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS TUE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MAY NEED LAKE WIND ADVISORY...BUT DO NOT SEE A
WIDESPREAD WIND ADVISORY SITUATION AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...WED THROUGH SAT NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RE-
ORIENTS ITSELF AS IT UNDERGOES SOME RETROGRADE MOVEMENT INTO
NEVADA AND CALIFORNIA. THIS PUTS SOUTHERN IDAHO IN A DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...WITH THE CONVECTION MOVING TO THE EAST SLOPES
OF THE ROCKIES AND CALIFORNIA. THUS EXPECT SOME THREAT WED
AFTERNOON STILL ALONG THE ID-UT BORDER...BUT NO THUNDERSTORMS OR
SHOWERS AGAIN UNTIL JUST BEYOND THIS PERIOD. THE NEARLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO STAY WELL ABOVE NORMAL...BUT THE
NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE AIR FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW
RECORDS. DO NOT FORSEE ANY MAJOR WIND EVENTS OR FRONTS DURING THE
MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST...ALTHOUGH WINDY CONDITIONS ON WED MAY
NECESSITATE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE RESERVOIR. MESSICK
&&

.AVIATION...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINED ANCHORED OVER THE
GREAT BASIN EARLY THIS MORNING AS SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE ROTATED
NORTH AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH. MODELS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION WITH NO DIRECT THREAT
AT ANY OF THE TERMINALS AT THIS TIME. HUSTON
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINED ANCHORED OVER THE
GREAT BASIN THIS MORNING AS SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE ROTATED NORTH
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION FAVORING THE
MOUNTAINS WITH NO WELL DEFINED TRIGGERING EVENT EVIDENT EITHER IN
THE MODELS OR IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
THUS DAYTIME HEATING WILL ESSENTIALLY DRIVE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. A LOW POSITIONED OFF THE COAST OF NRN CALIFORNIA WILL
LIFT NORTH OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE INTO SRN CANADA MONDAY AS A
WEAK ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY CLIPS THE CNTRL MOUNTAINS. THE GFS
HAS BEEN WAFFLING WITH THE PLACEMENT OF CONVECTION OVER THE SALMON-
CHALLIS NF OR FURTHER NORTH ACROSS WRN MONTANA WHILE THE NAM
REMAINED FAIRLY CONSISTENT SHOWING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SALMON-CHALLIS EXTENDING NNE INTO WRN
MONTANA. BY TUESDAY...A DRY AND WEST FLOW BREAKS ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE AS THE RIDGE DRIFTS SOUTH OVER UTAH THEN GRADUALLY SPREADS
WEST INTO NEVADA WEDNESDAY EFFECTIVELY CUTTING OFF ANY MOISTURE
SURGES FROM THE SOUTH. THE GFS SHOWS NO HINT OF A BACKDOOR FRONT FOR
FRIDAY...INSTEAD TRENDING TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH GRADUALLY
LIFTS THE HIGH NORTH ACROSS NEVADA THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MOSTLY DRY
AND WARM CONDITIONS CONTINUING ACROSS SE IDAHO. HUSTON
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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