Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 180819
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
219 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK WAVE WAS WORKING ACROSS
THE REGION THIS MORNING. IT LOOKS LIKE THE NAM WAS RIGHT IN
PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND OVER
TOWARD MONIDA PASS. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH QUICKLY THOUGH. WE
KEPT ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS GOING FROM MACKAY TO MONIDA THIS
MORNING...BUT THAT MIGHT BE GONE HERE IN A FEW HOURS. THE MAIN
SYSTEM IS STILL TO WORK THROUGH LATER TODAY...BUT WITH IT
CONTINUING TO SPLIT IT SURE LOOKS TO REALLY BRING SOME CLOUDS
BACK WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. OTHER THAN THAT...WE QUICKLY
WORK INTO DECENT SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM MOVING OUR
WAY. WE SHOULD STAY DRY BUT WILL SEE SOME OCCASIONAL HIGH/MID
LEVEL CLOUD COVER. WE WILL WARM UP A FEW DEGREES IN THIS PATTERN
WITH HIGHS PUSHING BACK TOWARD THE MID 70S IN SOME OF THE LOWER
VALLEYS AND 50S/60S IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
TRICKY...AS TERRAIN/GAP WINDS WILL PREVENT THINGS FOR COOLING OFF
TOO MUCH IN SOME PLACES.  KEYES

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. THINGS GET VERY
INTERESTING FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WE ARE STILL ON TRACK
FOR A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND WIND DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. THE NAM IS
MUCH QUICKER IN THE ONSET OF SHOWERS MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT VS THE
OTHER MODELS...LEADING US TO DISCOUNT THAT FOR NOW. WE ARE
CURRENTLY LOOKING FOR SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO WESTERN AREAS MONDAY
NIGHT...THEN QUICKLY SPREAD ACROSS ON TUESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF
SEEM TO BE TRENDING TOWARD MORE SHOWERS FARTHER SOUTH...BUT STILL
KEEPING THE BEST CHANCE AND HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS. AS THE FRONT CLEARS THE
PLAIN...WE MAY BE LOOKING AT ANOTHER WINDY DAY. IT LOOKS LIKE THE
COLD AIR WILL BE SLOW ENOUGH ON TUESDAY THAT ANY SNOW WOULD BE
CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST PEAKS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES
COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT ALSO. THE REST OF THE WEEK SHOULD SEE A
DRYING TREND FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH THE REMAINING QUESTION
BEING HOW DRY. MOST OF THE ENSEMBLES AND MODELS ARE TRENDING
TOWARD THE RIDGE BEING FARTHER NORTH THAN 24 HOURS AGO. IT LOOKS
LIKE THERE WILL END UP BEING A TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN DRY AND WET
CONDITIONS AS ANOTHER SURGE OF PACIFIC MOISTURE WORKS INLAND. AT
THIS POINT...THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS IS WHERE THIS WILL SET UP BUT
TRYING TO SHIFT NORTH GRADUALLY EACH DAY. FOR NOW...WE KEPT
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS GOING AND DRY ELSEWHERE. WE SHOULD
BEGIN WARMING UP EVEN WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST....WITH MORE 70S RETURNING BY THE WEEKEND.  KEYES

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
WINDS THROUGH SUNDAY.

VALLE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON
TUESDAY BRINGING BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION AND A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS.

VALLE

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







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