Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 190941
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
341 AM MDT TUE JUL 19 2016

.SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday. Hot...dry and breezy
conditions will persist through the period as we remain in
Southwest flow ahead of a Upper Level Low off the Pacific coast. A
weak/dry short wave pushing through the Southwest flow today will
keep winds elevated with wind gusts of 20 to 30 mph across the
area. Thursday...weak high pressure ridging builds in over the
area bringing even warmer and drier conditions. Winds will
slightly decrease on Thursday. Expect temperatures 3 to 6 degrees
above normal early in the period becoming 5 to 10 degrees above
normal by Thursday. TW

.LONG TERM...Friday through next Tuesday. The Upper Level
Low/Trough passes North of the area Thursday night into Friday.
Expect breezy to moderate winds across the area of 15 to 25 mph
with 25 to 35 mph gusts on Friday. Weak high pressure ridging
builds in Saturday before a weak/dry trough pushes through on
Sunday bring breezy winds again. Models are indicating yet another
weak/dry trough on Tuesday. Expect near normal temperatures on
Saturday before gradually rising Sunday into Tuesday becoming 3 to
6 degrees above normal. TW

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions will continue. Expect gusty afternoon and
early evening winds particularly through the Snake Plain and across
higher elevation areas. Gusts 25-30 mph are possible. DMH

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Red flag warning issued Monday evening will remain
in effect today for low humidities and gusty winds. Dry conditions
will continue for much of the week under the influence of southwest
flow aloft. Good diurnal mixing expected to maintain wind gusts
25mph+ this afternoon especially with the aid of passing
shortwave. Conditions could be similar on Wednesday. Ridge axis
strengthens slightly on Thursday with Pacific low shifting closer
to coast. Humidities will remain dry but winds could be less of a
threat. However, low opens and shifts east along Canadian border
through the day Friday. Breakdown of the ridge and passage of
upper trough should lead to resurgence of stronger wind threat and
could be next confident critical day. Temps are expected to
somewhat Friday and into the weekend in response to this feature.
At this time trough passage does appear to be dry with minimal
threat for precipitation. DMH

&&

.PIH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening for
IDZ413-422-427-475-476.

&&

$$


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