Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
000
FXUS65 KPIH 271953
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
155 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY
CONTINUED TO SHOW HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE LIFTING NORTH INTO SRN IDAHO
AROUND THE WRN PERIPHERY OF A MONSOON HIGH CENTERED OVER NRN NEW
MEXICO. TO OUR SOUTH...TWO SUBTROPICAL DISTURBANCES WERE EVIDENT IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE FIRST COMPLEX WAVE WAS ROTATING NNW THROUGH
THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER BASIN/WRN ARIZONA AND THE SECOND LARGER
FEATURE WAS LIFTING NORTH ALONG THE BAJA COAST. THE MODELS LIFT
FRAGMENTS OF THE INITIAL FEATURE INTO NRN NEVADA/UTAH MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH A PREPONDERANCE OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FIRING
SOUTH OF THE BORDER COINCIDENT WITH THIS INITIAL THRUST. AT THIS
TIME...THE SE HIGHLANDS...PARTICULARLY THE BEAR LAKE REGION...MAY
SEE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. THE SECOND...LARGER
DISTURBANCE FOLLOWS TUESDAY AND THE 12Z MODEL PROGS HAVE FOLLOWED
THE SIGNIFICANT TRACK ADJUSTMENT NOTED ON YESTERDAYS 00Z RUNS WITH
THE WAVE ROTATING NE INTO WRN UTAH TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN LIFTING
INTO SW WYOMING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. STILL...THE SE HIGHLANDS LOOK TO
GET CLIPPED BY THIS PASSING WAVE AS WELL AS SEVERAL STOUT FRAGMENTS
ROTATING UP INTO THE REGION LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVE ALONG WITH
ELEVATED MOISTURE LEVELS. THUS HAVE MAINTAINED A CHANCE/LIKELY
MENTION OF HEAVY T-SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SE HIGHLANDS AND A
GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE CNTRL MOUNTAINS WHERE ONE OF
THE FRAGMENTS IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO IMPACT. RESIDUAL ENERGY
FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY WITH PARTIAL CLEARING IN THE WEST HELPING TO
MAXIMIZE BUOYANT HEATING AND ALL COMBINING TO KEEP AN ELEVATED
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS GOING PRIMARILY IN THE MOUNTAINS.
FOR THURSDAY AND BEYOND...THE PICTURE BECOMES SOMEWHAT MUDDLED WITH
THE GFS CONTINUING THE MONSOON FLOW FROM THE SOUTH WHILE THE ECMWF
TRIES TO BREAK A LITTLE DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO THE REGION.
EITHER WAY...EMBEDDED ILL TIMED DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO ROTATE
THROUGH THE REGION SUSTAINING ONGOING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CLEAR
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HUSTON
&&

.AVIATION...INCREASING MONSOON MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL
BRING MORE CLOUDS OUR WAY. WE STILL MAY SEE A FEW STORMS IN THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH MORNING ESPECIALLY NEAR THE UTAH BORDER.
HOWEVER...DEVELOPMENT LIKELY WON`T HAPPEN UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
VFR WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH DOWNBURST WINDS OVER 35 KTS ASSOCIATED
WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS. KEYES
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MOISTURE IS SLOWLY WORKING INTO EASTERN IDAHO TODAY.
WE MAY STILL SEE A COUPLE OF STORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE UTAH BORDER...BUT THINGS WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...MOST AREAS WILL SEE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED IN THE SOUTHEAST
CORNER (ZONE 413). WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT MAINLY DRY STORMS WITH
LIGHT RAINFALL AND WIND GUSTS OVER 40MPH. BETTER MOISTURE ARRIVES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT THERE IS NOW UNCERTAINTY ON WHEN THE
BEST CHANCE OF STORMS WILL BE AND WHERE. THE SYSTEM FOR TUESDAY WILL
PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA PROMOTING WIDELY SCATTERED OR HIGHER
ACROSS EASTERN HIGHLANDS. THERE MAY NOW BE A SEPARATE SYSTEM THAT
WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE FOR WEDNESDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE IN
THIS PATTERN...WE MAY HAVE TO EVALUATE THINGS DAILY AS THIS PATTERN
CAN BE CHAOTIC AND INDIVIDUAL SYSTEMS NOT PICKED UP WELL IN THE
MODELS. THIS MEANS WE MAY BE ISSUING RED FLAG WARNINGS WITH LESS
LEAD TIME THAT NORMAL...IF WE END UP HAVING TO ISSUE THEM AT ALL. IT
STILL LOOKS LIKE A STORMY PATTERN WILL STAY IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS .  KEYES
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.