Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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915
FXUS65 KPIH 180936
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
336 AM MDT MON JUL 18 2016

.SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday night. Current water vapor
imagery shows an upper level low off the Oregon and Washington
coasts with a dry slot rotating around this low over California
moving into Nevada. Models show elevated winds with the feature as
well as relative humidity dropping across our area today. Expect
winds of 15 to 25 mph with gust of 25 to 35 mph across the area.
Also, expect isolated showers and thunderstorms late this
afternoon into early evening for the Bear Lake region. Expect dry
and windy conditions Tuesday and Wednesday as we stay in
Southwest flow across the area. Though winds will be stay
elevated, they will be around 5 to 10 mph less Tuesday and
Wednesday than what we will see today. Expect temperatures 3 to 6
degrees above normal through the period. TW

.LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday. Upper low along the OR/WA
coast along with broad ridge over souther tier of the continental US
at the beginning of the period.  Thursday the upper low transitions
to an open trof and moves into the Pacific NW. Main portion of upper
trof moves through the Idaho panhandle early Friday morning with a
trailing associated dry cold front moving through SE Idaho by
midday.  Expect breezy to windy conditions for Friday with high
temperatures down about 5 to 7 degrees from mid-week 90s in the
Snake Plain. Behind this system expect zonal flow to broad ridging
for the remainder of the period.  Models still hinting at a weak
shortwave trough across OR/WA and the ID panhandle next weekend. At
present this looks to be another dry and windy system with
little threat of precipitation. DSH

&&

.AVIATION...VFR through the period. Strong gusty winds return for
Monday afternoon primarily in the Snake Plain and Eastern Highlands.
DSH

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Southwest flow will continue over the area through
Thursday ahead of an upper level low and cold front. A dry slot
ahead of this system will bring dry and windy conditions. Expect
wide spread relative humidity below 15 percent. Winds will be
gusty between 25 to 35 mph today. A Red Flag warning remains in
effect today for Zones 410 and 413. This afternoon zone 413 will
see Isolated showers and Thunderstorms near the Bear Lake region.
Winds will remain elevated Tuesday and Wednesday but look to be
just below Red Flag criteria. Thursday winds will increase to near
Red Flag Criteria again. Friday look for even stronger winds
behind the cold front moving through the area. Relative Humidity
will remain near or below 15 percent all week. TW

&&

.PIH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening for
IDZ410-413.

&&

$$



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