Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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000
FXUS65 KPIH 250839
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
239 AM MDT THU SEP 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ONE MORE WARM AND
BREEZY DAY THANKS TO STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. WE
WILL SEE CLOUDS INCREASING LATER TODAY ACROSS WESTERN AREAS WHICH
MAY HELP TEMPER HIGHS BY A HANDFUL OF DEGREES IN SOME SPOTS.
OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE AS WARM IF NOT A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THAT WILL PUT
CHALLIS...IDAHO FALLS AND POCATELLO AT OR JUST ABOVE RECORD HIGHS.
WINDS OF 15-25 MPH SUSTAINED WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. RIGHT
NOW...IT WILL BE BORDERLINE FOR A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN TERMS OF
SPEED AND ALSO IN DIRECTION. WE WILL SEE AN INITIAL AREA OF
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS WEST OF A LONE PINE TO CITY OF
ROCKS LINE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. WE MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR GUSTY
DOWNBURST WINDS THIS EVENING WITH THIS ACTIVITY. THE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO SPLIT AND SLOWLY MOVE TO THE CASCADES/SIERRAS BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE FARTHER EAST WITH
SHOWERS AND STORMS TOMORROW VS THE OTHER MODELS...SO WE DISCOUNTED
A LOT OF WHAT THE NAM WAS SHOWING. THE FORECAST WILL REFLECT A
MUCH BETTER CHANCE WEST OF A MONIDA-INL- ROCKLAND VALLEY LINE. IT
WILL BE COOLER TOMORROW AREAWIDE...BUT STILL 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL IN SOME AREAS. KEYES

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. DESPITE SOME
MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS...WE WILL BE IN FOR WETTER AND
MUCH COLDER WEATHER. A CLOSED LOW DEVELOP ALONG THE SIERRAS AND
VERY SLOWLY PROGRESS EAST OVER THE WEEKEND. THE NAM CONTINUES TO
BE FARTHER EAST JUST A BIT VS THE OTHERS...BUT ENOUGH TO BE
CONSIDERED THE "ODD MAN OUT" IN TERMS OF WHERE SHOWERS/ISOLATED
STORMS WOULD DEVELOP. EVEN THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE AT ODDS WITH EACH
OTHER...BUT BOTH KEEP THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION FARTHER WEST
FOR SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY...WE MAY SEE A DRY SLOT SOMEWHERE ACROSS
THE SOUTH BUT THERE IS NOWHERE ENOUGH AGREEMENT THIS MORNING TO
TRY AND PINPOINT THAT IN THE FORECAST. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO
9500-10500 FEET WITH THIS STORM...MEANING THE HIGHEST PEAKS WILL SEE
SOME OCCASIONAL WET SNOW. JUST BE PREPARED FOR IT IF YOU DECIDE TO
VENTURE OUT TO THOSE AREAS. IT DOES APPEAR THE LOW WILL WEAKEN AND
LIFT NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN WYOMING ON MONDAY. IT WILL REMAIN
UNSETTLED WITH SHOWERS STILL IN THE FORECAST. ANOTHER STORM WILL
SWING INTO IDAHO QUICKLY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS ONE
LOOKS EVEN COLDER...WITH SNOW LEVELS POTENTIALLY DROPPING TO
BETWEEN 7000 AND 8000 FEET. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL DEFINITELY
INTRODUCE EVERYONE TO FALL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. VALLEY HIGHS
THIS WEEKEND WILL RUN 55-65 DEGREES AND OF COURSE COLDER IN THE
MOUNTAINS. THEY WILL RUN 50-60 DEGREES WITH STORM NUMBER 2 IN THE
VALLEYS...AND 30S/40S IN THE MOUNTAINS.  KEYES

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TODAY. SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON FOR PIH...BYI...AND IDA...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 25
KNOTS...ESPECIALLY AT PIH. WINDS ALOFT...GENERALLY BETWEEN 10KFT AND
18KFT MSL... WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 50 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THE BULK OF THE EVENING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE BY THIS EVENING PERSISTING THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT SUN AND BYI...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
AD

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A MAJOR UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST
TODAY WILL RESULT IN STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT...
ESPECIALLY AT RIDGETOPS. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN MAGIC
VALLEY THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD ON FRI AS THE UPPER SYSTEM DEEPENS AND MOVES EASTWARD.
THE TROUGH DEVELOPS INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN ON
SATURDAY...RESULTING IN A COOL AND WET PERIOD INTO NEXT WEEK.
ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO IDAHO ON TUE
...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HEDGES

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







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