Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 130020
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
620 PM MDT FRI SEP 12 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FORECAST TO ISSUE A FREEZE WARNING FOR UPPER SNAKE PLAIN
AND FROST ADVISORY FOR LOWER SNAKE PLAIN FOR TONIGHT. LAST NIGHTS
COLD TEMPS WOULD TYPICALLY END THE GROWING SEASON AND ANY FURTHER
FROST/FREEZE WARNINGS. HOWEVER GIVEN THE FACT THAT IT IS SUCH AN
EARLY FREEZE...THE NWS WILL CONTINUE TO ISSUE FROST/FREEZE
PRODUCTS UNTIL ANOTHER HARD FREEZE IS REALIZED. LATEST GUIDANCE
SHOWS TEMPS JUST A DEGREE OR TWO COLDER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST SO
DECIDED TO LOWER TEMPS A TAD.

VALLE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 213 PM MDT FRI SEP 12 2014/

DISCUSSION...TEMPS REMAIN COOL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT TODAY AND SATURDAY. CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL BE GOOD
FOR POTENTIAL VIEWING OF NORTHERN LIGHTS IF EVENT CAN MATERIALIZE. LOWS
WARMER THAN THIS MORNING SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANOTHER FREEZE
HEADLINE FOR FORESEEABLE FUTURE. TEMPS SLOWLY WARM AS UPPER RIDGE
NUDGES INTO IDAHO LATE SATURDAY INTO MID WEEK. GFS AND ECMWF EJECT
WEAK WAVE NORTH ALONG PACIFIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. NOT
CONFIDENT IN ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION YET SO
CONTINUED NEAR ZERO POPS FOR THAT TIME PERIOD. STRONGER TROUGH
APPROACHES COAST WEDNESDAY WITH BOTH GFS AND ECMWF HINTING AT
MOISTURE BEGINNING TO CREEP NORTH THROUGH GREAT BASIN. BEST
CHANCE FOR RAINFALL APPEARS TO BE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS TROUGH
WEAKENS AND PROGRESSES EAST INTO THE ROCKIES BY SATURDAY. DMH

AVIATION...REGION-WIDE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS WE REMAIN UNDER A STABLE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A
SHORTWAVE WILL DROP INTO MT WHICH MAY INCREASE UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER THIS EVENING.  HINSBERGER

FIRE WEATHER...REGION WILL SEE MOSTLY DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH JUST
TO OUR NORTH AND EAST TONIGHT. THIS MAY BRING AN INCREASE IN UPPER
CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT. RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY
BRINGING A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE COMING WEEK. AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE LATE NEXT WEEK WILL PUSH INTO THE PAC NW AND MAY TRIGGER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST IDAHO AS WELL AS COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND STRONGER SURFACE WINDS. HINSBERGER

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM MDT SATURDAY IDZ021.

FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM MDT SATURDAY IDZ020.

&&

$$




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