Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 160820

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
220 AM MDT Thu Mar 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday night.
Cold front pushing through eastern Idaho today with main effects
mountain rain and snow and breezy conditions in the Snake River
Plain this afternoon. Snow levels up around 8 thousand feet this
morning will lower to under 7 thousand feet by sunset but
precipiation will gradually end west to east through the day and
overnight tonight. Expect 20 to 25 mph sustained winds to develop
in the Snake River Plain but think most areas will stay under
advisory criteria. Temperatures should be 5 to 10 degrees cooler
than yesterday. Expect dry conditions Friday with another Pacific
system gradually spreading rain showers and high elevation snow
back into the region Friday night through Saturday night.
Temperatures will again warm Friday into Saturday ahead of the
next cold front with highs approaching 15 degrees or so above
normal once again.

.LONG TERM...Sunday through next Thursday. The GFS and ECMWF appear
to agree on the larger scale progression of holding on to some
showers across the region Sunday as the back half of the upper
trough migrates east of the divide Sunday/Sunday night. By Monday, a
transient ridge begins to build across the region ahead of the next
elongated PAC trough approaching the coast. For Tuesday and beyond,
the picture becomes a bit more muddled as the models struggle to
maintain run to run consistency on how to handle the incoming
trough. It gets even more cloudy when you begin to focus in on the
details. For now we are comfortable with maintaining a broad brush
chance mention of showers Tuesday through Thursday until the models
gain a little more consistency. Strayed little from statistical
temperature guidance which continues to place us at or above normal
for this time of year. Huston

.AVIATION...Early morning satellite imagery was showing an upper
trough sweeping east through the NRN Rockies with scattered lower
elevation rainfall and attending VFR CIGS advancing quickly through
the region. Numerical models show lingering moisture over the region
this morning with partial clearing later this afternoon and
overnight. Model cross sections appear to be over-weighted with low
level moisture that is not evident in current satellite imagery.
Like the current forecast trend and we will maintain the VFR CIGS
over the region this morning allowing partial clearing in the
afternoon and overnight hours. Breezy to windy conditions
anticipated with the Snake River Plain today then diminishing
this evening. Huston

Flood Watch through this afternoon for IDZ017-019>025-031-032.


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