Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 210756
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
156 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS UPPER LOW OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST WITH SOUTHERLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
REGION. MODELS CONTINUE WITH THE THEME OF WET CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE COMING WEEK AS A SERIES OF UPPER LOWS ROTATE THROUGH THE WEST
WITH CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS LAPSE
RATES BECOME LESS STABLE. THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA BY FRIDAY NIGHT THEN LIFTING OVER
THE UTAH WASATCH RANGE BY MID-DAY SATURDAY. THE LOW POSITION
FAVORS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY PRECIP OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
HIGHLANDS AND IS MODELED WELL BY THE GFS AND NAM. ECMWF PLACES THE
HEAVIEST PRECIP A BIT FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...BUT STILL CLIPS THE
BEAR LAKE AREA. GFS PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST PRECIP IS BETWEEN 12Z
AND 18Z SATURDAY BETWEEN BEAR LAKE AND POCATELLO WITH 6-HOUR QPF
OF NEARLY 0.75 INCHES. GFS AND ECMWF ARE AT ODDS WITH THE TRACK OF
ANOTHER UPPER LOW DROPPING INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON MONDAY MORNING.
GFS IS NOW RETROGRADING THE LOW INTO THE COASTAL WATERS WHILE THE
ECMWF PROGRESSES IT SLOWLY ACROSS NORTHERN IDAHO WEDNESDAY.
HINSBERGER
$$

.AVIATION...ANOTHER UPPER LOW DROPPING INTO CNTRAL CA WILL MAINTAIN
THE THREAT OF SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. OVERALL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. HEDGES
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ANOTHER UPPER LOW DROPPING INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REPEAT WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
HEDGES
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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