Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 092000
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
200 PM MDT WED APR 9 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SHORTWAVE REACHING
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON PER SAT IMAGERY. BUILD UPS
ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND UPPER
SNAKE HIGHLANDS PER SAT IMAGERY AS WELL. SURFACE LOW AHEAD OF
SHORTWAVE HELPING TO MAINTAIN GRADIENT AND WINDS PICKING UP ACROSS
SNAKE PLAIN. REACHING LOW END OF WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLD IN UPPER
SNAKE PLAIN BUT COVERED BY BLOWING DUST ADVISORY ALREADY. DUST
VISIBLE ON WEB CAMS NORTH OF IDAHO FALLS THIS AFTERNOON. BEST
INSTABILITY STILL MIGRATES TO EASTERN HIGHLANDS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE AFTER 03Z AS SHORTWAVE
AND SURFACE SHIFT EAST AND GRADIENT SUBSIDES. LATEST HRRR RUNS
CONTINUING TO SHOW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG SOUTHERN BORDER
THIS EVENING. NAM CARRYING SOME INSTABILITY THERE AND WILL BE IN
LINE WITH PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE TAIL SO ADDED WEAK POPS IN THAT
AREA AS WELL. OTHERWISE...NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND SHORTWAVE WILL
PROVIDE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ON THURSDAY BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF
BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS. GUIDANCE CURRENTLY BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL
BUT REGION HAS BEEN HOVERING AT THE 30MPH THRESHOLD WITH GUIDANCE
AT THESE LEVELS AND UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW. CAN SEE THE POTENTIAL
FOR MORE BLOWING DUST BUT WILL LET FOLLOWING SHIFTS UPDATE AS
NECESSARY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PASSES THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND DRAGS
SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH IT. INSTABILITY NOT AS FAVORABLE AS
TODAY BUT LEFT WEAK COLLABORATION POPS ALONG NORTHERN BORDERS. DMH

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MODELS HAVE COME MORE IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
THROUGH SUNDAY. THE GFS MODEL HAS INCREASED MOISTURE MATCHING UP
BETTER WITH THE ECMWF MODEL. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE UPPER CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...UPPER SNAKE
HIGHLANDS AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW BRIEF RIDGING MONDAY WITH OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS
BEFORE BRINGING THE NEXT SYSTEM THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY...THE ECMWF MODEL SHOWS OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS IN WESTERLY
FLOW WHERE THE GFS MODEL SHOWS A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN
WESTERLY FLOW. EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY BEFORE
DROPPING TO NEAR NORMAL ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES THEN BECOME ABOVE
NORMAL AGAIN ON MONDAY BEFORE DROPPING OFF TO NEAR NORMAL TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WYATT


&&

.AVIATION...A WEAK TROUGH PASSING NORTH OF OUR AREA TODAY IS
BRINGING BREEZY TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT BLOWING
DUST ACROSS THE EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND SNAKE RIVER PLAIN THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. VISIBILITIES SHOULD DROP SLIGHTLY BUT
STILL REMAIN MVFR THIS AFTERNOON FOR BYI...PIH AND IDA. LOOK FOR
WINDS TO DROP OFF BY EARLY EVENING. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR VICINITY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING FOR IDA AND TO A LESSER EXTENT FOR SUN. WYATT


&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING IDZ017-021.

BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING IDZ020.

&&

$$








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