Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 110947

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
247 AM MST Sat Nov 11 2017

.SHORT TERM...Today through Monday...Low pressure trough making
pretty good progress across southeastern Idaho this morning. The
snow stake at Sun Valley Bald mountain shows about 4.5 inches
accumulation since yesterday afternoon. Snow has already tapered
off at that location. Light snow falling in Camp Creek and Monida
Pass early this morning and Island Park has perhaps a half inch so
far. Forecast total accumulation of 1 to 3 for the mountains looks
fair. For the snake Plain, more rain than snow and the speed of the
trough probably has precipitation moving into East of the I-15
corridor by noon. Therefore trimmed pops back a little in the Snake
Plain for the faster timing. Most all of the precipitation should be
east of the state by late afternoon. Models have high pressure ridge
over this area tonight through about noon Monday. Snow levels from
about Craters of the Moon southward increase close to 8000 ft
elevation by Monday, with temperatures in the Eastern Magic Valley
into the upper 50s just before the next disturbance moves in late
Monday and Tuesday. RS

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday. The timing and positioning of
a passing cold front Tuesday is in a bit of a debate between
forecast models attm. GFS solution places it rather similarly to
Friday`s passing weak system, with a line of weak showers south of
the interstate corridor progressing eastward to the border of WY by
the evening hours. Rather decent amounts of moisture are noted in
the GFS, whereas Canadian and European model solutions are a bit
less ambitious in their QPF amounts. Snow levels for this day are
around 5500 ft, leaving rain the Snake Plain and a mix of rain/snow
in the Highlands. High pressure builds in for your Wednesday but not
before a rather chilly start with lows either in the teens or mid
20s. Yet another weather system will rumble through our area for
Thursday, bringing additional chances for rain and snow showers.
Snow levels by this day, however, have lowered to 3500 to 4000 ft.
Therefore, we can expect a transition from any initial rain showers
in the valleys to snow. High pressure builds back up from the
southwest for Friday and Saturday, briefly clearing out the
lingering precip in SE Idaho. NP/RS


.AVIATION...Challenging ceiling forecasts this morning due to
rain/snow shower coverage and placement of stratus deck. Expecting
ceilings to remain low at DIJ through early afternoon followed by
increasing winds overnight/early Sunday. IDA is also expected to
have a low ceiling this morning and improve to VFR quickly for the
remainder of this period. Increasing winds are also expected
tomorrow morning. BYI and PIH are the more uncertain forecasts this
morning, as well as SUN to an extent. SUN should improve its
ceilings quickly by mid-morning as there is no reason their diurnal
winds shouldn`t help move their low clouds out. Winds just aloft at
SUN are also in the 25 kt range from the northwest and considered
including LLWS, it was just not strong enough to include in the
official TAF. Ceilings for PIH and BYI may vary this morning between
the varying categories and potentially drop again this afternoon to
MVFR. Confidence in that is low. NP/RS


Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM MST this morning for IDZ019.

Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST early this morning for


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