Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 150910

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
310 AM MDT SAT OCT 15 2016

.DISCUSSION...Deep moisture transport continues across the region
today as short waves lift out of a Pacific trough. The nose of a
130kt jet is edging into Idaho from the west. As that passes, we
may see a short break in the wet weather. A resurgence of moisture
will occur this evening as the next wave lifts across the area.
Activity will pick up around sunset tonight with snow levels
around 8500 ft. Snow amounts overnight should be sub-advisory
level over the Central Mountains, but may cause some travel
difficulty in the mountain passes.

Snow levels drop further tomorrow ahead of the next system, which
we anticipate will slam the Sawtooth Range again with snowfall.
With snow levels around 7000 ft Sunday night with similar snow
amounts up around Galena Summit. We`ll cover this event with a
special weather statement for now. We`ll see one final wave push
through the state on Tuesday. Upper ridging will build in the East
Pacific, ending our atmospheric river feed. The rest of next week
should be dry. Hinsberger


.AVIATION...Timing in TAFs this morning based strongly on radar and
satellite trends and blend with nam12 time sections. Basically
looking for conditions to improve to VFR at all sites 17-19Z time
period and keep a middle level cloud deck much of the day. The
second round of rain will reach KSUN 00-02Z, and KIDA and KPIH about
16/04-06Z. Snow levels today increase to 8000 to 9000 feet MSL by
noon, then drop sharply to 7000 to 7300 feet Sunday morning. RS


.FIRE WEATHER...First wave of showers propagates through the
South Central and Caribou Highland by mid day, followed by a period
of minimal shower activity this afternoon. The second wave moves
into the Central Mountains early this evening and advances to the
Eastern Highlands by Sunday morning. snow levels dip to near 7000
feet early Sunday in the Central Mountains. A few inches
accumulation quite possible on Galena Summit. A third wave is
expected Sunday night and Monday and a fourth wave on Tuesday. Then
a high pressure ridge should build in and provide warming
temperatures and drying conditions through the end of the week. RS


.PIH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

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