Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 230851
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
251 AM MDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES FROM SOUTHERN IDAHO INTO NORTHWEST WYOMING
TODAY. EXPECT LESS PRECIPITATION TODAY WITH SOME DRIER AIR MOVING
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. BUT STILL HAVE EXTENSIVE MOISTURE IN PLACE
AND ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR CONTINUED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THROUGH TODAY. THINK HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS EAST INTO UPPER SNAKE RIVER HIGHLANDS WHERE SOME
LOCALIZED FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE. LOW CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST SUNDAY
AND EXPECT LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AGAIN BUT ANOTHER TROF DROPS
SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA MONDAY WITH BOTH EUROPEAN AND NAM MODELS
CLOSING OFF ANOTHER LOW WITH GFS QUICKER AND WEAKER WITH TROF.
SHOULD HAVE CONTINUED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY WITH THIS
SECOND SYSTEM. THE ENTIRE PERIOD SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE
COLD WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES.
GK

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
BOTH EUROPEAN AND GFS MODELS MOVE IN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE
WEST BY WEDNESDAY. EUROPEAN HOLDS ONTO PRECIPITATION LONGER TUESDAY
THAN GFS WHICH IS DRY BY TUESDAY. FOR THE MOST PART EXPECT WARMING
CONDITIONS AND MAINLY DRY WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS BY LAT NEXT WEEK.
GK

&&

.AVIATION...THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. GUSTY WINDS AND
REDUCED VISIBILITY DUE TO HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES. THIS
MORNING...THERE IS AMPLE MOISTURE FOR IFR CEILINGS AND/OR REDUCED
VISIBILITIES DUE TO MIST/FOG AT KPIH AND KIDA. HOWEVER...IF IFR
CONDITIONS OCCUR THIS MORNING...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO VFR
AFTER 23/1500Z. EP

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPPER CLOSED LOW IS MOVING OVER SE ID THIS MORNING
WHICH WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CREATE FLASH FLOODING OR DEBRIS
FLOWS ON BURN SCARS. ANOTHER CLOSED LOW WILL BEGIN EFFECTING OUR
AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND BEYOND. HAINES
VALUES DURING THIS ENTIRE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT 3 OR
BELOW WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WIND ISSUES ANTICIPATED. EP

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






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