Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 300836
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
236 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. WE ARE STILL UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF MULTIPLE STORMS THIS MORNING. ONE IS STILL OVER
WESTERN MONTANA AND WEAKENING. THE SECOND IS DEVELOPING AND
DIGGING ACROSS NEVADA. THE THIRD ONE IS WRAPPING MOISTURE AROUND
THE NORTHERN SIDE AND PUSHING TOWARD SOUTHEAST IDAHO. THE FIRST
AND THIRD ONE WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. A CONVERGENCE EVENT WILL
ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE MAGIC VALLEY WITH MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS.
THE STORM DIGGING ACROSS NEVADA WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OVER MUCH OF EASTERN IDAHO.
THE WINDS WILL STAY MORE WEST TO NORTHWEST ACROSS THE MAGIC VALLEY
AND SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR AMERICAN
FALLS RESERVOIR REMAINS IN PLACE. THE WINDS MIGHT BE A TICK LOWER
BUT STILL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ROUGH WATERS ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE
DAM. LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THIS EVENING. SNOW LEVELS REBOUND TO AROUND 8000FT THIS
AFTERNOON.

DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE FLOW BECOMES
EASTERLY SUNDAY AND SOUTHEASTERLY MONDAY AS WE SEE A HIGH OVER
LOW PRESSURE BLOCK SETTING UP ACROSS THE WEST. THE MODELS DIFFER A
BIT IN TERMS OF HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE THERE FOR CLOUDS AND ANY
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS. RIGHT NOW...ANY SHOWERS SUNDAY MAY ONLY BE IN
THE SAWTOOTHS. FOR TODAY...WE INCLUDED ISOLATED FOR ALL OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS IN CASE THE MODELS SWITCH GEARS AGAIN. ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ACROSS THE SAWTOOTHS AND ALSO A FEW
RIDGES IN THE SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS. IT IS POSSIBLE DUE TO BREEZY
WINDS TOMORROW THAT ANOTHER LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS NEEDED BUT WE`LL
HOLD OFF FOR NOW. WITH DRIER CONDITIONS...WE WILL SEE AFTERNOON
WARMING UP WITH A FEW 70S CREEPING INTO THE PICTURE MONDAY. THE
OTHER ISSUE WITH THAT IS COOLER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES. SINCE WE
ARE HEADING INTO THE GROWING SEASON...WE MIGHT BE LOOKING AT A
FROST OR LIGHT FREEZE IN SOME AREAS MONDAY MORNING. IT WILL LIKELY
DEPEND ON IF WINDS LET UP ENOUGH. KEYES

.LONG TERM....MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT
ON GENERAL PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED. AMPLIFIED UPPER BLOCKING
RIDGE OVER NORTHERN ROCKIES ON TUESDAY DEAMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS EAST
THROUGH THURSDAY. GFS MAINTAINING WEAK POCKETS OF MOISTURE BUT
CONFIDENCE TOO LOW UNDER DISORGANIZED UPPER FLOW TO PAINT PRECIP IN
ANY ONE PLACE. DEEP PACIFIC TROUGH SHIFTS INLAND THURSDAY WITH CUT
OFF LOW IN BASE OF TROUGH. UPPER FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY USHERING IN
BETTER MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION THUS PUSHED PRECIP CHANCES HIGHER
THURSDAY. MODELS LOSE AGREEMENT HEADED INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER
SHIFTS INLAND INTO THE SOUTHWEST STATES BUT BOTH KEEP PRECIP SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION SO MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS INTO SATURDAY. GUIDANCE
KEEPS TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. DMH

&&

.AVIATION...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
TODAY. CONDITIONS LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR EXCEPT OCCASIONAL MVFR
CEILINGS WITHIN CONVECTION. BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS OCCURS
18Z-02Z. SLOW DISSIPATION OF SHOWERS EXPECTED AFTER 06Z. SURFACE
GRADIENT THROUGH SNAKE PLAIN REMAINS NORTHEAST TODAY AND COULD BE
STRONGEST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT KPIH/KIDA. DMH

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR IDZ021.

&&

$$


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