Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 151955
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
155 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY
WAS SHOWING A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OFF THE NW COAST EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SEVERAL FEATURES EMBEDDED IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW.
FURTHER EAST...THE GREAT BASIN REMAINED UNDER A MODEST RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AND WELL TO OUR SOUTH...HURRICANE ODILE WAS CLEARLY VISIBLE
MARCHING NORTH ACROSS BAJA. THE MODELS FAVOR LIFTING AN INITIAL
DISTURBANCE NORTH ALONG THE OREGON/WASHINGTON COAST TONIGHT WHILE A
SECOND WAVE SPINS UP OFF THE NRN CALIFORNIA COAST TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING LOW...THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE GREAT
BASIN WILL EDGE SLOWLY EAST OF THE DIVIDE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
OPENING THE DOOR FOR INCREASED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY PARTICULARLY OVER
THE CNTRL AND SE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE REMNANTS OF
HURRICANE ODILE ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH INTO ARIZONA LATE
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WELL SOUTH OF IDAHO WHILE THE UPSTREAM LOW OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST BEGINS TO SWING INLAND AND SPLIT. THE MODELS
ARE SHOWING SOME MODEST DYNAMICS EVEN WITH THE SPLITTING TROUGH
MOVING OVERHEAD THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT AND AT THIS POINT IT IS
UNCERTAIN WHETHER WE WILL SEE ANY MOISTURE CONTRIBUTIONS FROM THE
REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE AS IT SLIPS FURTHER EAST INTO NEW MEXICO
AND WEAKENS THURSDAY NIGHT. THUS HAVE MAINTAINED A LIKELY MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SE HIGHLANDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVE UNTIL
WE CAN GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF ODILE. HUSTON

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE
SHOWING A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE NRN BRANCH TO THE SPLIT TROUGH WHILE
THE SRN EXTENT SPUN OFF INTO A WEAK CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION OVER
CALIFORNIA FRIDAY. BEYOND FRIDAY...THE GFS SHOWS THE CLOSED LOW
DRIFTING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS CALIFORNIA/NEVADA/SE UTAH THROUGH MONDAY
WITH NO IMPACT ON SE IDAHO WHEREAS THE ECMWF RETROGRADES THE LOW OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST ONLY TO BE SWEPT INLAND BY YET ANOTHER INCOMING
TROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. NEITHER OF THESE SOLUTIONS HAS MAINTAINED ANY
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY SO THE CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE OF THE SOLUTIONS
IS POOR. HUSTON
&&

.AVIATION...UPPER RIDGING WILL AMPLIFY OVER IDAHO THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS AND WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO WA/OR LATE TONIGHT AS IT ATTEMPTS TO MOVE
THROUGH THE RIDGE. THE TAIL END OF THE DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER
SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AROUND MID-MORNING TOMORROW.
HINSBERGER
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS SOUTHEAST IDAHO OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE FROM THE PACIFIC MAY
TRIGGER SHOWERS IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TOMORROW MORNING. WILL SEE
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE EAST. THUS WILL SEE
GRADUALLY INCREASING HUMIDITY AS WE HEAD INTO MID-WEEK. A STRONGER
PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL ADVANCE INLAND ON THURSDAY AND MAY TAP INTO SOME
OF THE MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE ODILE AND DRIVE IT INTO SOUTHEAST
IDAHO...FOCUSING MOSTLY ON THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS. MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT TO SEE
DRIER WEATHER ON FRIDAY WITH CONTINUED DRYING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HINSBERGER
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$









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