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000
FXUS65 KPIH 032112
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
212 PM MST MON MAR 3 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THU AFTERNOON. SNOW SHOWERS ARE
JUST WRAPPING UP IN THE UPPER SNAKE FOOTHILLS AND THE LAST LINE OF
PRECIPITATION IS JUST HEADING INTO THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS.
THE TIMING OF THE CURRENT ADVISORY AND WARNING APPEAR EXCELLENT
HAVE CONTINUED THEM. PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT TUE WITH MOST
PRECIPITATION LIMITED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ALONG THE WY-ID
BORDER. TUE NIGHT AND WED MORNING WILL BE DRY IN ADVANCE OF A
SIGNIFICANT STORM THAT WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THERE ARE
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN WHAT THIS STORM MEANS FOR CENTRAL AND
EASTERN IDAHO. NOT SO MUCH TIMING...ALTHOUGH THE NAM IS 6 TO 12
HOURS EARLIER...AS COMPARED TO THE INTENSITY. THE NAM HAS
EXTREMELY HEAVY AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION...POTENIALLY PRODUCING AS
MUCH AS 2 FEET OF SNOW FROM THIS STORM IN THE CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS AND THE ID-WY BORDER REGION. THE GFS IS SUBDUED BUT
STILL BRINGS IN ENOUGH SNOW FOR WARNING CRITERIA IN THE NORTHERN
TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. IT HAS HARDLY ANY SNOW ALONG THE
ID- UT BORDER. IN GENERAL...THE NAM HAS ABOUT DOUBLE THE AMOUNT OF
SNOW AND PRECIPITATION THAT THE GFS GENERATES. THESE ARE STRONG
DIFFERENCES THAT HOPEFULLY CAN BE RESOLVED WHEN THAT THE
PARTICULAR STORM MOVES ONSHORE TUE MORNING. DO NOT SEE DAMAGING
WIND...BUT WIND STRONG ENOUGH TO BLOW AND DRIFT SNOW IS POSSIBLE
AT HIGH ELEVATION. FOR THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AND EASTERN MAGIC
VALLEY...FOR THE MOST PART IT SHOULD BE A RAIN EVENT. ENOUGH OF
THESE PILE UP...AND IF THE NAM PROVES MORE CORRECT IN THE
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...AND AREAL FLOODING IS A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY FOR WED AFTERNOON THROUGH THU AFTERNOON.  MESSICK

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MODELS AND ENSEMBLE DATA
ALL SHOW DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. ONE STORM MOVES THROUGH EASTERN IDAHO THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...KEEPING A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW GOING ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE PRETTY CLOSE TO
5000FT WITH THIS EVENT. WE SHOULD A BRIEF BUT STRONG RIDGE ON
SATURDAY. THE NEXT STORMS WILL PUSH MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA ON SUNDAY
AND REMAIN THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY. SNOW LEVELS WITH THIS SECOND
STORM WILL BE HIGHER AT 6500-7500FT. IT WILL BE BREEZY IN THE
MOUNTAINS SO SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING IS LIKELY BUT MAY NOT BE A
WIDESPREAD AND HIGH IMPACT ISSUE. KEYES

&&

.AVIATION...THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN AND SNOW IS MOVING INTO EASTERN
IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON. ALL AREAS WILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS
THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH THE THREAT MOVING INTO THE SOUTH AND EAST
TONIGHT...BEFORE ENDING ON TUESDAY. WE HAVE SHOWERS FOR ALL TAFS
THROUGH 3-4Z TONIGHT...THEN VCSH OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING
ESPECIALLY FOR KIDA AND KPIH. VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST...ALTHOUGH
CONDITIONS COULD DROP TO IFR WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS. FOR TONIGHT...WE
SHOULD SEE SOME CLOUD COVER BANKING UP AGAINST THE INTERSTATE
CORRIDORS IN THE SNAKE PLAIN. THIS WILL LEAD TO POTENTIAL MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THIS IS NOT A HIGH CONFIDENCE
FORECAST AT THE MOMENT AS RECENTLY SIMILAR PATTERNS HAVE ENDED UP
NOT AS PREDICTED WITH LESS CLOUD COVER. ONE THING THAT WOULD LEND
ITSELF THOUGH TO THE MORE PESSIMISTIC SIDE IS THE HUGE AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE IN THE AIR.  KEYES


&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON ABOVE 6000
FEET FOR THE IDZ019.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING ABOVE 6500
FEET FOR THE IDZ018-031.

&&

$$