Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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000
FXUS65 KPIH 270900
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
300 AM MDT SAT SEP 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. WE CONTINUE TO WATCH A WET
WEATHER PATTERN UNFOLDING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND SETTLE OVER NEVADA IN THE NEXT 36
HOURS. OUT AHEAD OF THAT...A LARGE AMOUNT OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
WILL PUMP INTO EASTERN IDAHO TODAY. WE ARE SEEING QUITE A BIT OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS MORNING MOVING IN FROM UTAH AT THIS
HOUR...SO EXPECT RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR STRONGER STORMS PRODUCING
GUSTY WINDS AND MAYBE SMALL HAIL. BY LATER AFTERNOON...THE MAIN
BAND WILL BEGIN SHIFT SLOWLY NORTH AND EAST AS A DRY SLOT WORKS
INTO THE MAGIC VALLEY. THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN WILL ROTATE OVERNIGHT
INTO THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WITH THE DRY SLOT STILL
WORKING INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS AND SNAKE PLAIN. WE WILL ALSO
ANOTHER AREA OF LOWER RAINFALL ACROSS THE WESTERN CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS. LATER
TOMORROW AS THE LOW BEGINS TO SHIFT NORTHEAST...THE MAIN AREA OF
RAIN WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. THE FORECAST BECOMES A
LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AS THE MODELS
DIFFER ON WHAT TO WITH THE LOW AS IT SWINGS ACROSS EASTERN IDAHO.
WHILE THE AGREE ON WEAKENING IT DURING THIS PROCESS...THE ARE
RATHER LARGE DIFFERENCES ON WHERE TO PLACE THE MAIN BAND OF
WRAPAROUND MOISTURE. FOR NOW WE WILL GO WITH MORE OF A BROADBRUSH
FORECAST ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH A LITTLE BETTER FOCUS INITIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST EARLY ON. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP
EVENTUALLY TO BETWEEN 9000-10000FT...BUT THAT MAY NOT BE UNTIL
MONDAY. IT DOES APPEAR THAT SOME OF THE VERY HIGH PEAKS...LIKE MT
BORAH WILL SEE SOME SLUSHY SNOW AT TIMES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
CONTINUE TO CHANGE AS THE EVENT EVOLVES...BUT WHERE THE MAIN BANDS
OF RAIN DEVELOP AND SHIFT WE ARE EXPECTING AN ADDITIONAL 1-2
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. OTHER AREAS WILL STILL DECENT
RAINFALL...BUT SHOULD BE MORE SPOTTY AND OVERALL LOWER. THIS WILL
MEAN LOCALIZED FLOODING AND RISES ON CREEKS AND STREAMS IS LIKELY.
KEYES

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. WE WILL BE UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH MIDWEEK. WE WILL SEE ANOTHER WAVE QUICKLY
MOVE IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW...AND KEEP SHOWERS GOING ACROSS
EASTERN IDAHO INTO TUESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE AT ODDS WITH HOW
STRONG THIS WAVE WILL BE...BUT IT DOES APPEAR SNOW LEVELS WILL
DROP EVEN MORE WITH THIS ONE TO BETWEEN 8000-9000FT. AFTER
THAT...HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD ACROSS THE WEST. THIS WILL
PUSH THE STORM TRACK NORTH. WE LOOKING AT A SYSTEM CLIPPING THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY...AND SUBSEQUENT SYSTEMS JUST CLIPPING THE
ISLAND PARK AREA. WE WILL SEE A GRADUAL WARMUP THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.  KEYES


&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WIDESPREAD THRU
TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THE PERSISTENT
RAIN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LOWERED CIGS BY AFTERNOON...OCNLY FALLING
TO IFR CIGS AT ALL TAF SITES. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED SUNDAY.
HEDGES

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LOW SETTLES IN OVER THE GREAT BASIN.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE SIGNIFICANT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL
AND HUMIDITY HIGH. THE UPPER LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE
AREA ON MONDAY. PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT MONDAY
NIGHT. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE MOSTLY IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
MID WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING COOL. HEDGES

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







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