Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 192007
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
207 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL OVER SOUTHEAST IDAHO
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. MONDAY MORNING WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE
AGAIN WITH MORNING LOWS NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE FREEZING. THE LOWER
VALLEYS WILL WARM 3 TO 6 DEGREES OVER SUNDAY WITH AFTERNOON SOUTH
WINDS PULLING WARMER AIR IN. LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND BY
MONDAY NIGHT AND BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BEFORE
TUESDAY MORNING. ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL REACH STANLEY ABOUT 6
AM TUESDAY. A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN WESTERN
CUSTER AND BUTTE COUNTY WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE TRACKING TO THE
NORTHEAST. SNOW LEVELS DIP TO ABOUT 8700 FEET...1-2 INCHES
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE BETWEEN 7800-8500 FEET...UP TO 5 INCHES ON THE
HIGHEST PEAKS. MODELS ARE ALSO CONSISTENT IN BRINGING SUB TROPICAL
MOISTURE NORTH FROM ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO IN ALMOST MONSOON
FASHION. THE NAM12 MODEL USES SOME OF THAT MOISTURE TO ENHANCE
SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND CARIBOU HIGHLANDS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH THE FRONT PUSHING INTO THE SNAKE PLAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...IT WILL BE ON THE WINDY SIDE BUT SHORT OF ADVISORY
LEVEL. TUESDAY HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. THIS TROUGH
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST QUICKLY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A LITTLE WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE AND SHOWERS LINGERING NEAR ISLAND PARK AND DRIGGS
WEDNESDAY MORNING. RS

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
VAST DISAGREEMENT IN GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS IN EXTENDED.   GFS
FLATTENS FLOW MUCH QUICKER AND BRINGS MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THE
ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH A MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN.   GFS
BRINGS IN PRECIPITATION THURSDAY TO CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WITH THE MAIN
TROF COMING THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.   EUROPEAN KEEPS RIDGE TO
EAST STRONGER AND KEEPS PRECIPITATION NORTH THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AND MOVES THE TROF INLAND ON SUNDAY WITH NO PRECIPITATION
UNTIL SUNDAY AT THE EARLIEST.   FOR NOW DECIDED TO KEEP THE DRY
CONDITIONS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AND DID NOT JUMP ON GFS
SOLUTION AT THIS TIME.   KEPT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH THE SLOWER MOVEMENT AND EUROPEAN FAVORED.
GK

&&

.AVIATION...CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.
SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM WEST EXPECTED TO BRING SHOWERS AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS TUESDAY.
GK


&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$







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