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000
FXUS65 KPIH 271020
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
320 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TODAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING
TODAY. BEST SHOT WILL BE THIS MORNING MAINLY IN SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS
WHERE SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE AN INCH OR TWO BY NOON AND THEN
SOME DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES IN
HEATING. BIG AMOUNTS NOT EXPECTED BUT AGAIN LOCALLY AN INCH OR TWO
IN HEAVIEST SHOWERS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. SATURDAY UPPER LOW IN
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS MORNING DROPS SOUTH THROUGH OREGON WITH
MOST PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM STAYING WEST OF THE REGION. BUT
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AGAIN FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS. SUNDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY AS LOW CONTINUES TO DROP
SOUTH. CLOSE TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR LATE FEBRUARY AND EARLY
MARCH EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.
GK

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON OR MONDAY
EVENING. MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS SYSTEM ARRIVING AS A FASTER MOVING
OPEN TROUGH AS OPPOSED TO THE CLOSED LOW ADVERTISED EARLIER. AS A
RESULT...DONT EXPECT THIS TO BE A MAJOR STORM. STILL HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE FOR SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHLANDS WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW POSSIBLE FOR THE SNAKE PLAIN COMMUNITIES. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING NOTICEABLY COLDER AIR WITH IT...WITH MANY LOCATIONS STRUGGLING
TO REACH THE FREEZING POINT FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH TEMPS QUICKLY REBOUNDING TO ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THE ECMWF IS SHOWING ANOTHER SYSTEM ARRIVING FRIDAY...BUT
HAVE LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THIS SOLUTION SINCE ALL GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS SHOW A RIDGE OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY.

VALLE

&&

.AVIATION...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH OREGON
TODAY. THIS WILL SPREAD SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY WITH BEST CHANCES IN THE MOUNTAINS. EXPECT VFR CEILINGS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY EXCEPT IN AND AROUND SHOWERS WHERE TEMPORARY IFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT TODAY.

VALLE

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$