Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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000
FXUS65 KPIH 251015
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
315 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
SNOW CONTINUES THIS MORNING IN THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS WITH THE BRUNT OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 6000 FEET.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES STILL IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING IN
THE MOUNTAINS. A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING SOUTH EAST OF THE UPPER
RIDGE BRINGING THE SNOWFALL WITH EXTENSIVE PACIFIC MOISTURE
ENTRAINED IN THE FLOW. EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY IN THE SNAKE
RIVER PLAIN AND EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND HAVE ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY FROM NOON THROUGH 8 PM WITH SPEEDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
TO 25 TO 35 MPH. ANY SNOW IN THE SNAKE PLAIN SHOULD QUICKLY CHANGE
TO RAIN THIS MORNING AND EXPECT MAINLY RAIN WITH THIS EVENT. SNOW
WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TONIGHT WITH IT CONTINUING LONGEST IN THE
EASTERN HIGHLANDS. AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY
PRECIPITATION SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY.
GK

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MED RANGE. OVERALL PATTERN STILL SUGGESTING
ENCROACHMENT OF COLD CANADIAN TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. COLD AIR MASS REMAINS NORTH OF DIVIDE BUT
DEFORMATION ZONE PRECIP REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS EAST IDAHO THROUGH THE
PERIOD. RIDGE RE AMPLIFIES LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY WITH NEXT
AMPLIFIED PACIFIC TROUGH SPREADING INTO THE INTER MOUNTAIN WEST LATE
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE IS INDICATION THAT THE NEXT TROUGH
COULD SPLIT BUT THIS IS WHERE SOLUTIONS DIVERGE. HAVE MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO CURRENT FORECAST. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED HIGHER ELEVATION
POPS FRIDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. GUIDANCE TEMPS REMAIN WELL
ABOVE NORMAL AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS TEMPS DO REMAIN COLD ENOUGH TO KEEP SNOW
GENERALLY ABOVE 6000 FT...WHICH COULD CAUSE HOLIDAY RETURN TRAVEL
ISSUES. DMH

&&

.AVIATION...SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH ALBERTA EARLY THIS MORNING
FORCING MOISTURE ACROSS EAST IDAHO IN NORTHWEST FLOW. RADAR SHOWING
WIDESPREAD LIGHT RETURNS OVER THE REGION BUT SO FAR SNOW APPEARS TO
REMAIN CONFINED TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND AREAS FAVORABLE TO
NORTHWEST FLOW OROGRAPHICS. BUFR SOUNDINGS AND GUIDANCE SUGGEST
CEILINGS DROP REMAINDER OF OVERNIGHT TO MVFR WITH LIGHT PRECIP MOST
OF THE REGION. WINDS STRENGTHEN AGAIN DURING THE DAY TODAY AND WILL
LIKELY BE STRONGEST KBYI/KPIH. WILL NUDGE WINDS UP SLIGHTLY THOSE
TERMINALS. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT PUSHING
PRECIP EAST INTO MONTANA/WYOMING. QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT
PROFILES WILL SUPPORT STRATUS OVERNIGHT. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS
SUPPORT IT WITH AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND GUIDANCE LEANING
STRONGLY THAT DIRECTION. WILL CONTINUE TO TREND TERMINALS IN THAT
DIRECTION. DMH

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MST THIS EVENING
IDZ017-021.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT ABOVE 6500
FEET FOR THE IDZ019-023-025.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT ABOVE 7000
FEET FOR THE IDZ018-031.

&&

$$






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