Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 240854
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
254 AM MDT FRI JUL 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...THAT PESKY WAVE TO OUR SOUTHWEST FINALLY MOVES
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. UNTIL THEN...WE WILL ARE STILL LOOKING
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THE MAIN FOCUS REMAINS THE
HIGHLANDS ALTHOUGH THE SAWTOOTHS AND AROUND BEAR LAKE MAY SEE LESS
STORM COVERAGE. A FEW STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PLAIN
ESPECIALLY IF WE GET ANY TYPE OF OUTFLOW TO DEVELOP. ALTHOUGH WE
SHOULD BE A BIT DRIER...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
THE MAIN RISKS. THE FLOW REMAINS SOUTHWEST AND SHOULD INCREASE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS DRY AIR INITIALLY MOVES IN WITH A BIT OF
AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS BY LATER
SUNDAY. A FEW MOUNTAIN STORMS ARE POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS IN THOSE
AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP ALONG WITH AN UPTICK IN
WINDS...STRONGEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND UPPER SNAKE
PLAIN/HIGHLANDS WHERE SUSTAINED SPEEDS UP TO 25 MPH ARE LIKELY. IT
DOESN`T LOOK LIKE WE WILL SEE ANY TYPE OF HEADLINE EVENTS FOR THE
WIND ON THE PUBLIC SIDE...BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A BIT OF BLOWING DUST
DESPITE ANY RECENT RAINFALL. KEYES

.LONG TERM...THE MODELS ALL AGREE ON A PRETTY STRONG LOW SWINGING
SOUTH OF OUT CANADA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS ONE WILL HAVE
SOME COLDER AIR WITH IT AND PRETTY GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANGES AND ALONG THE MONTANA
BORDER. THERE WILL BE A VERY SHARP GRADIENT FROM A LOT OF
PRECIPITATION TO NOTHING AS YOU HEAD SOUTH INTO THE SNAKE PLAIN
AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS. SPEAKING OF GRADIENTS...ANOTHER ONE WILL BE
AN ISSUE ON MONDAY. THAT WILL BE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT...WHICH
COMBINED WITH SOME STRONGER WINDS OFF ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL LEAD
TO A VERY BREEZY DAY. WE WILL BE BORDERLINE FOR A WIND ADVISORY
ACROSS THE PLAIN...BUT STRONG ENOUGH FOR A LAKE WIND ADVISORY ON
AMERICAN FALLS RESERVOIR. AGAIN...DON`T BE SHOCKED TO SEE SOME
BLOWING DUST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE PRETTY COOL...10-15 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE FOR LATE JULY. VALLEY HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 60S
AND 70S...WITH MID 40S AND 50S IN THE HIGH COUNTRY.

WE QUICKLY DRY OUT AND WILL REMAIN DRY FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.
THE MODELS QUICKLY HAVE ISSUES BY A WEEK FROM NOW...BUT BOTH TRY
TO PULL IN A LITTLE BIT OF MOISTURE FORM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE
GFS HAS A MUCH FLATTER RIDGE AND WESTERLY FLOW WHILE THE ECMWF
TRIES TO BUILD A STRONGER RIDGE AND THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE
NOSING INTO OREGON AND WASHINGTON. FOR NOW...WE WILL STICK WITH A
DRY FORECAST AND A RAPID WARMUP AFTER MONDAY.  KEYES

&&

.AVIATION...A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WAS LINGERING OVER THE NW STATES
EARLY THIS MORNING AS AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE WAS VISIBLE EJECTING
NE ACROSS NRN NEVADA. ATTENDING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED
FROM KJAC THROUGH KBYI AND KEKO AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE REMAINS OF THE TROUGH BEGIN TO SHEAR NE ACROSS
NEVADA AND SE IDAHO. THE MAIN TSTM IMPACTS WILL BE TO KBYI AND KPIH
THIS MORNING WITH KSUN AND KIDA FOLLOWING SUITE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPORARY RESTRICTIONS TO VIS AND CIG WITH PASSING THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WHICH SHOULD END BY 06Z TONIGHT WITH DRIER CONDITIONS
SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA. HUSTON

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WAS NOTED ACROSS THE NW
STATES EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE AN EJECTING DISTURBANCE WAS
PROMOTING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAINLY ALONG A JACKSON TO
BURLEY LINE. THE REMAINS OF THE TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO SHEAR NE
ACROSS NRN NEVADA AND SE IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING PROMOTING
INCREASED COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ELEVATED
MOISTURE LEVELS WILL PROMOTE WET THUNDERSTORMS AND MODEST HUMIDITY
LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON. THE NEXT UPSTREAM STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
DIG DOWN THE CANADIAN COAST SATURDAY AND INTO THE SEATTLE AREA
SUNDAY WITH AN INCREASINGLY STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION
WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS AND LOWER HUMIDITY
LEVELS EACH DAY. THE LOW SWINGS EAST SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY WITH
ATTENDING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE CNTRL
AND NE MOUNTAINS WHILE A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT SWEEPS EAST
THROUGH THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN EARLY MONDAY MORNING. STRONG POST-
FRONTAL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN
AND SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY ALONG WITH NOTABLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. AT THIS TIME...MINIMUM DAYTIME HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE THE 15 PERCENT THRESHOLD FOR RED FLAG
CONDITIONS. THIS STORM EXITS EAST TUESDAY AS A DRY AND STABLE WEST
FLOW SETTLES OVER THE REGION AND REMAINS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY
AS TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM. HUSTON

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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