425
FXUS65 KPIH 100523
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
1123 PM MDT Wed Jul 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot weather continuing this afternoon.

- Cold front arrives shortly bringing isolated to scattered
  thunderstorms with gusty outflow winds.

- Red flag conditions likely today for wind and humidity.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 201 PM MDT Wed Jul 9 2025

Afternoon satellite imagery shows a quickly expanding CU field over
the central mountains while some additional development is
occurring across the far southern part of the forecast area on
the Nevada and Utah borders. Temperatures have quickly climbed
into the 80s and 90s across the region as another hot day which
will allow the atmosphere to become increasingly unstable over
the next few hours. To our west, an upper level trough is
centered north of the Lake Tahoe area and this feature will move
towards eastern Idaho over the next 12-18 hours. This is
tightening the pressure gradient across the area and winds are
increasing as such creating some Red Flag conditions across the
region. Additionally, as the feature gets closer, it`ll serve as
a source of lift across eastern Idaho allowing for thunderstorm
development across the region later this afternoon and into the
early part of the overnight. Daytime heating and steepened low-
level lapse rates coupled with enhanced mid-level flow aloft
should support some potential for strong to severe wind gusts
with the thunderstorms that do develop. The atmosphere is
extremely dry so not expecting much precip with these. Lightning
(and thus potential fire starts) and gusty winds will be the
primary concern with the storms today. This activity could
linger into the early morning hours on Thursday before things
settle down as we move towards sunrise Thursday AM. Things will
be quieter, and slightly cooler, tomorrow as cooler air filters
in behind the trough. Not expecting anything drastic as temps
will still be in the 80s across lower elevations, but it`ll
still be 7-10 degrees lower than where we top out today. Winds
will remain breezy as well, much like today, but not expecting
much of a thunderstorm concern tomorrow as the shortwave moves
well east of the region. Something very isolated could develop
around Island Park but otherwise, things should be dry.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 201 PM MDT Wed Jul 9 2025

The more seasonal temps linger into the day on Friday with
things continuing to run near normal levels for mid-July. Winds
will also lessen across the area as an area of high pressure
settles in place for the weekend. Temperatures will begin
another upward trend on Saturday as it strengthens inn intensity
sending things back into the 90s for the lower elevations as
early as Saturday but even more so for the second half of the
weekend. This appears to be where they will stay through the
middle part of next week with precipitation chances looking
quite low. A series of weak shortwaves to our north COULD help
spark some very isolated precip chances across the central
mountains and around Island Park during the first part of next
week but for the most part, things look like they`ll remain dry
across the region for the weekend and into next week with above
normal temperatures once again.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1121 PM MDT Wed Jul 9 2025

Mid- and high-level clouds will continue shifting eastward tonight
with mostly clear skies by around sunrise. Showers and isolated
thunderstorm gusts 35 to 50 kts will continue to shift eastward.
Synoptic winds will increase again Thursday afternoon with gusts
ranging 20 to 30 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 201 PM MDT Wed Jul 9 2025

Things are slowly ramping up in terms of wind and
thunderstorm coverage this afternoon. We are still expecting
critical fire weather conditions across Zones 410, 413, 425 and
427 with gusty winds and low humidity. While thunderstorm
coverage will be highest over the central mountains, we do
expect more isolated coverage everywhere else. The trend is for
storms to end from west to east overnight. Gusts over 35 mph are
likely with stronger storms with a 10% chance of gusts of 60
mph or higher through this evening. We wouldn`t be surprised to
strong gusts overnight as storms remain dry for the most part
though. In terms of storm coverage, we MIGHT see a few showers
and storms tomorrow and Friday along the Montana and Wyoming
borders. Temperatures will cool off 5-10 degrees the next couple
of day, which will bring up humidity values ABOVE critical
thresholds. However, wind gusts will potential EXCEED thresholds
for portions of Zones 413, 425, 427, 475 and 476. Since
humidity will be higher, we don`t foresee any headlines for
critical fire weather conditions at this time. Heading through
the weekend and early next week, we will see a return to hotter
and dry conditions...but not much in the way of wind. Any
potential for storms holds off until the middle of next week
most likely.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...McKaughan
LONG TERM...McKaughan
AVIATION...Cropp
FIRE WEATHER...Keyes