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000
FXUS65 KPIH 221021
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
321 AM MST SUN FEB 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
AN EXITING SYSTEM WITH DRY NORTHERLY FLOW MOVING INTO THE AREA AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. LOOK FOR OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS AND MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY. ALSO...BREEZY WINDS THIS MORNING ARE
BRINGING WIND CHILLS 5 DEGREES ABOVE ZERO TO AS LOW AS A NEGATIVE
10 DEGREES BELOW ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. EXPECT TEMPERATURES
10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. MONDAY
MORNING EXPECT SINGLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SNAKE RIVER
PLAIN WITH NEGATIVE TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS A NEGATIVE FIFTEEN IN
THE MOUNTAINS. MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY LOOK FOR GRADUAL
WARMING TEMPERATURES AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD
INTO THE AREA. LATE WEDNESDAY A SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING BRINGING WEAK PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS OUR
EASTERN BORDERS. WYATT

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NEAR THE COAST WILL BE MOVING
FURTHER WEST TO ABOUT 140 DEGREES WEST. THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF
TIMING AND PLACEMENT ISSUES WITH DISTURBANCES NOW FREE TO MOVE OVER
THE RIDGE AND INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A MINOR DISTURBANCE PASSES
QUICKLY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS BUT LITTLE ACCUMULATION. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...A MORE
SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCES DROPS DOWN THE OREGON COAST AREA...THE GFS
BEING A LITTLE FASTER AND BY FRIDAY NIGHT TRIES TO CLOSE OFF THE
DISTURBANCE OVER NEVADA. THE TREND APPEARS TO BE TAKING THIS
DISTURBANCE TO OUR WEST. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF TRACK...CHOSE TO
KEEP HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS ALL MOUNTAIN AREAS AND A LITTLE LOWER
VALUES IN THE LOWER VALLEYS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AIRMASS SHOULD
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION TO BE ALL SNOW BOTH DAYS. MOUNTAIN
AREAS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO AROUND 1 TO 4 INCHES SNOW...WITH AN MAYBE
AN INCH IN THE SNAKE PLAIN FOR THE TWO DAYS TOTAL. THERE IS LITTLE
OR NO MODEL AGREEMENT ON TRACK BY SATURDAY. RS

&&

.AVIATION...LOW CLOSING OFF OVER CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA TODAY WILL
LEAVE SOUTHEAST IDAHO IN COLD NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS. PRESSURE
GRADIENT DOES RELAX SOME THIS AFTERNOON...BUT OVERALL SNAKE PLAIN
WINDS WILL STILL BE IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE. SCATTERED MID LEVEL
CLOUDS EXPECTED...OTHERWISE TAF SITS REMAIN VFR. RS


&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$