Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 241952
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
152 PM MDT FRI JUL 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AGAIN
THIS EVENING ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST IDAHO. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY
PRODUCE WIND GUSTS IN THE 40 TO 50 MPH RANGE. ACTIVITY SHOULD
DISSIPATE LATE TONIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY.
STRONG UPPER TROF MOVES ON SHORE SUNDAY ALONG WITH AN ADVANCING
COLD FRONT BUT AGAIN EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH PERHAPS SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN
HIGHLANDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SHOULD BE NEAR
SEASONAL NORMAL. EXPECT 10 TO 20 MPH WINDS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN.
GK

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH IDAHO
SUNDAY NIGHT AND EXPECT STRONG WINDS MONDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS AND SNAKE RIVER PLAIN. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE SYSTEM WILL MAINLY BE IN THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND UPPER SNAKE PLAIN AND HIGHLANDS. WILL HAVE HIGH
TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. EXPECTED TO HAVE DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TO NEAR NORMAL
CONDITIONS.
GK

&&

.AVIATION...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE
AREA AND IS CONTINUING TO WEAKEN. HOWEVER...THE TROUGH WILL STILL BE
ABLE TO PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT WHEN COMBINED WITH AMPLE MOISTURE THAT
REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS SE ID TO RESULT IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. ADDED A TEMPO GROUP AT BYI...IDA...AND
PIH IN AN EFFORT TO REFINE THUNDERSTORM TIMING AND INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW WINDS ALONG WITH A MENTION OF
TEMPORARY CIG AND VIS REDUCTIONS IN TS. OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD. EXPECT CONVECTION TO FIRST IMPACT BYI BY AROUND 21Z...PIH BY
AROUND 22Z AND IDA BY AROUND 23Z. COVERAGE WILL REMAIN SPARSE ENOUGH
AT SUN TO RENDER VCTS SUFFICIENT. TROUGH AND ATTENDANT MOISTURE WILL
EXIT TO THE EAST TONIGHT...ENDING CONVECTION BY AROUND 04Z ALL TAF
SITES. SOME GUSTY TERRAIN INDUCED WINDS LIKELY ON THE PLAIN BY 21Z
SATURDAY WHICH WILL IMPACT BYI...IDA...AND PIH WITH GUSTS AROUND
20KTS. THESE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET SATURDAY. AD/GK


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS JUST TO THE WEST OF
THE AREA AND IS CONTINUING TO WEAKEN. HOWEVER ENOUGH REMNANT
MOISTURE REMAINS TO ALLOW DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH TO
INDUCE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WET THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THIS EVENING MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS.
TROUGH WILL EXIT TO THE EAST TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR A WARMING AND
DRYING TREND TO COMMENCE ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
REBOUND BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS. SOME GUSTINESS EXPECTED ON THE
SNAKE RIVER PLAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH W-SW WINDS
GUSTING TO NEAR 20 MPH AT TIMES. A VIGOROUS TROUGH IS THEN EXPECTED
TO DIG ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY LATER ON SUNDAY AND GRADUALLY
SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO TUESDAY. AHEAD OF
THIS TROUGH EXPECT CONTINUED DRYING AND STRENGTHENING WINDS FOR
SUNDAY. MINIMUM RH VALUES DIP TO AROUND 15 PERCENT ACROSS ZONE 410
MAKING FOR BORDERLINE RED FLAG CONDITIONS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY...PASSING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS IN THE MORNING AND EXITING INTO WYOMING BY EARLY
EVENING. ANTICIPATE STRONG WINDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT AREA
WIDE...WITH SOME GUSTS APPROACHING 40 MPH...STRONGEST ACROSS THE
PLAIN. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BY MONDAY MORNING...TAPERING TO ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HIGHLANDS...WITH ACTIVITY
LIKELY ENDING HERE MONDAY EVENING. SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS. A
DRYING AND WARMING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. AD/GK

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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