Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 141438

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
838 AM MDT Mon Aug 14 2017


Minor update to afternoon forecast to increase rain chances. HRRR
shows showers increasing from Pocatello to Burley and south this
afternoon. Thunder potential still looks low due to the cooler



.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 259 AM MDT Mon Aug 14 2017/

DISCUSSION...WV imagery this morning shows a modest shortwave
trough digging into southwestern Idaho with showers evident on
radar ahead of the shortwave. Models bifurcate the shortwave with
the first extension triggering showers and thunderstorms this
morning and afternoon, while a second wave advances into the
region tonight. The second wave will produce lingering impacts
mainly over the far Southeast Highlands through tomorrow

Much of the rest of the forecast will be dry with a more stable
pattern in place. "Eclipse Day" may present some challenges to the
forecast, though it is a week away yet. GFS and ECMWF are
advancing the notion of an upper trough over the West, which may
trigger showers/thunderstorms. Hinsberger

AVIATION...Band of showers continues to work across the region
today. VFR conditions expected, though heavier precipitation within
the band could produce local MVFR ceilings. Could see some of the
activity strengthen into a few TSRA this afternoon and evening, but
confidence fairly low. Best chances could occur at KBYI/KSUN where
some clearing behind the precip band could help destabilize the
atmosphere. Winds KPIH/KBYI gusty this morning, then easing
slightly. Stronger winds develop across Upper Snake Plain from
KPIH to KIDA this afternoon with gusts around 25kts. DMH

FIRE WEATHER...Band of showers will move across the region today,
and could see a few thunderstorms develop this afternoon, especially
in areas that see some clearing. Humidities will remain elevated
today with cooler than normal temperatures. Combined with the
rainfall, conditions are expected to remain well below critical
thresholds despite some gusty winds this afternoon through the Snake
Plain and Southern Sawtooth NF. Drier and warmer conditions are
expected on Tuesday though a few showers and thunderstorms will be
possible mainly along the WY border and Divide. DMH



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