Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 192041
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
241 PM MDT Fri May 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...A few light sprinkles trying to develop in northwest
flow this afternoon from the Central Mountains towards the South
Central Highlands. A stronger disturbance will drop southeastward
through the forecast area on Saturday. There is enough instability
to include a slight chance of an afternoon thunderstorm in the
forecast. This disturbance also develops some westward extension
on Sunday and lingers over this area during the afternoon. the
latest model runs are trending faster with this disturbance
moving south of our border by evening. High pressure ridge begins
to build in Monday and into the middle of next week with warming
temperatures expected. RS

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Friday. High pressure is forecast to
have settled over the region over the middle of next week. This will
mean climbing temperatures, into the low 80s for the Snake Plain and
mid to low 70s for the Central Mountains. A relatively minor
disturbance passes across the state Thursday and Friday and creates
an opportunity for moisture both days. Areas that would be affected
by the showers/thunderstorms are uncertain at this time as this
disturbance is relatively broad in nature. NP/RS

&&

.AVIATION...We`re finally see the large mid level cloud deck break
up this afternoon. It will be interesting to see if this allows
additional showers to form as we heat up, or this is it with respect
to the low moving into the Plains. IF we can get showers, expect
MVFR weather. Otherwise, VFR weather is forecast. A weak storm will
drop south across the state Saturday, kicking off another round of
showers with possible thunderstorms. This would affect all TAF sites
but a better potential for KDIJ and KSUN to be impacted due to cells
developing over terrain. It`s possible MVFR weather would occur with
anything that develops along with gusty winds and small
hail/graupel. Keyes

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Main concern after the cool down the past couple of
days is a return to warmer temperatures next week. There is still
quite a bit of snow left in the mountains and in a few higher
elevation spots, recent precipitation even added to available
snow packs. The warmer temperatures will restart the rate of snow
melt and runoff into local streams and rivers. RS

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$


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