Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 162110
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
210 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN FALLING MOST OF THE MORNING OVER
TOWARDS JEROME AND SLIPPING NORTHWARD INTO HAILEY. LATEST SATELLITE
AND RADAR SHOWS NOW CROSSING THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND MOVING
NORTH INTO THE LOWER SNAKE PLAIN. VERY LITTLE SNOW TO BE FOUND IN
LOCAL ITD WEB CAMS AND THAT IS THE WAY TONIGHTS FORECAST GOES.
LITTLE ACCUMULATION IN THE SNAKE PLAIN. BEST ACCUMULATION IN THE
UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHERE 1 TO
3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...SUN VALLEY SNOW
STAKE THE LAST 12 HOURS SHOWS LESS THAN ONE INCH. MOUNTAINS AROUND
THE AIRPORT COULD SEE ANOTHER ONE INCH OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 10 HOURS
BEFORE THE DISTURBANCE MOVES FURTHER NORTHEAST. LATEST MODELS WASH
OUT THE LITTLE DISTURBANCE NEAR THE OREGON COAST BEFORE IT REACHES
THIS AREA. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE NEAR 140W COMES THROUGH SOUTHEAST
IDAHO ON THURSDAY BUT WITH LITTLE MORE THAN AN INCH OF SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS EVEN LESS IN THE SNAKE PLAIN. THE FAST FLOW ACROSS THE
EASTERN PACIFIC BRINGS YET ANOTHER DISTURBANCE INTO IDAHO FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AGAIN WITH PERHAPS A COUPLE INCHES IN THE
MOUNTAINS. SO FAR NONE OF THESE EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES ARE AMOUNTING
TO ANYTHING BIG. AT LEAST AT THIS PACE...WE COULD GET A WHITE
CHRISTMAS ONE SPOON FULL OF SNOW AT A TIME. RS

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CURRENT MODEL RUNS
TRANSITION US INTO A MOIST ZONAL PATTERN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
PRECIP MOSTLY FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HAVE INCREASED POPS
ACCORDINGLY OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE SAWTOOTH AND
TETON RANGES MAY SEE 8 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOWFALL SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL CLIMB THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AS WE SEE SOME
WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS. THIS WILL FAVOR RAIN
IN THE SNAKE PLAIN AND SNOW CONTINUING ABOVE 6500 FT ON MONDAY. WITH
THE JET SETTLING OVER IDAHO WE WILL ALSO SEE WINDS INCREASE ACROSS
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAKING BLOWING SNOW A
POSSIBILITY THROUGH MOUNTAIN PASSES. MODELS SIGNAL ANOTHER CHANGE IN
THE PATTERN WITH AN UPPER TROUGH DROPPING OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA
ON CHRISTMAS EVE. HINSBERGER
&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE SNAKE PLAIN SITES TODAY
AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION. KSUN MAY
SEE IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH
SNOW TAPERING OFF AROUND 8 OR 9 PM TONIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
MOS GUIDANCE SHOWING CONDITIONS DETERIORATING AGAIN LATER TOMORROW
MORNING WITH IFR CEILING AND VISIBILITY. BOTH NAM AND GFS MOS
SUGGEST LONG-DURATION IFR CONDITIONS STARTING TOMORROW MORNING.
HINSBERGER
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$






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