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000
FXUS65 KPIH 030345
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
845 PM MST SUN MAR 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. NOT PLANNING ANY
UPDATES FOR THIS EVENING AS PACIFIC WAVE NOTED PROGRESSING RAPIDLY
EAST THROUGH WASHINGTON WITH UPTICK IN SNOWFALL ANTICIPATED ACROSS
THE CNTRL MOUNTAINS AND ERN HIGHLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST 4AM. SNOW
LEVELS WILL LIKELY REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH (6500 MSL) UNTIL WAVE PASSES
LATE TONIGHT AND THEN DROP TO 5500 MSL WITH A LULL IN ACTIVITY
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SECOND PAC WAVE CLEARLY VISIBLE ADVANCING
TOWARD OREGON COAST AND MODELS HAVE THIS WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE TRAVERSING SE IDAHO MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH ELEVATED SNOW
LEVELS ONCE AGAIN. WARM TEMPS MAY MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO ACCUMULATE
ENOUGH SNOW TO VERIFY WARNINGS. NIGHT SHIFT SHOULD GET A GOOD FEEL
FOR THIS BEFORE ADJUSTING CURRENT WARNING/ADVISORY. SEE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION BELOW. HUSTON

NEXT EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IN THE ZONAL FLOW IS CROSSING THROUGH OREGON
AND SHOULD ARRIVE TONIGHT. IT HAS ALL APPEARANCES OF VERY MOIST
FLOW...BUT HARD TO SAY WHAT IT WILL DO TO TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. THE
GUIDANCE FORECASTS ALL HAVE OVERNIGHT LOWS WARMER OR JUST BELOW
CURRENT AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES...SO HAD TO MAKE A BETTER
EDUCATED GUESS BASED ON CURRENT TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS. MODERATE
WIND EXPECTED WITH THIS TROUGH...WHICH SHOULD PROLONG THE ADIABATIC
MIXING AND PREVENT ANY SERIOUS INVERSION FROM DEVELOPING. THIS WOULD
BE OFFSET AT LEAST SOMEWHAT BY COLDER AIR BEHIND THE TROUGH. NOT
MUCH BETTER FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS...THEY WERE MUCH TO WARM FOR
YESTERDAY AND TODAY AND APPEAR TO BE CONTINUING THE MYSTIFYING
TREND. DECIDED NOT TO MESS WITH THE ADJUSTMENTS OF THE PREVIOUS
THINKING. NEVER THE LESS...HEAVY PRECIPITATION STILL EXPECTED AT
ELEVATION WITH A RAIN AND SNOW MIXTURE LIKELY BELOW 6000 FT
ELEVATION. THUS HAVE KEPT THE CURRENT ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS AS IS.
THE MEAN ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING MORE SHORTWAVES DIRECTLY INTO
IDAHO...MAKING FOR A RATHER WET PERIOD THAT MAKES UP FOR THE DRY
START TO WINTER. YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED MON NIGHT AND
TUE...THEN AN APPARENT BREAK FOR MOST OF TUE NIGHT. AN EVEN WETTER
AND STRONGER STORM IS EXPECTED WED...WHERE SAWTOOTH REGION SNOWFALL
WILL BE MEASURED BY THE FOOT. HOWEVER...IT IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME
TO BRING VERY MILD AIR...THUS EXPECT SNOW ONLY AT HIGH ELEVATIONS
WITH MOSTLY RAIN IN PLACES SUCH AS THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AND EASTERN
MAGIC VALLEY. MESSICK

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. UPPER RIDGING
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FLATTEN AS A NEW STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW MILD PACIFIC MOISTURE
TO BEGIN FLOWING INTO THE REGION...INCREASING THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES IN THE MOUNTAINS ON WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW BRINGS IN MORE
MOISTURE WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ACROSS
THE AREA.  TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO BE ABOVE NORMAL.  SNOW LEVELS TO
BE FAIRLY HIGH IN THE 6500 TO 7000 RANGE FOR IMPACT CONCERNS.  HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS ON FRIDAY FOR THE WEEKEND.  NEXT POTENTIAL
SYSTEM LATER ON SUNDAY.  PRESTON
&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL IFR
CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND LINGERING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS ANOTHER BATCH OF MOISTURE MOVES THROUGH.  PRESTON
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY ABOVE 6000 FEET
FOR THE IDZ019.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY ABOVE 6500 FEET FOR THE
IDZ018-031.
&&

$$