Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 220820
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
220 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW SEEN ON WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING PASSING
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. PLENTY OF MID
AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH A BROAD
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT. NAM/GFS KEEPING TREND OF ACTIVE WEATHER
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH DESTABILIZATION LEADING TO
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO UTAH BY SATURDAY MORNING. BOTH GFS/NAM FAVOR A BAND
OF HEAVY PRECIP...0.7 TO 1.0 INCHES IN 6 HOURS...OVER OUR
SOUTHEAST CORNER APPROXIMATELY FROM SODA SPRINGS TO MALAD. BEGAN
RAMPING UP QPF. NOT QUITE AS HIGH AS MODELS PROJECT...BUT AM A BIT
CONCERNED OF THE RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY OF PLACEMENT AND
INTENSITY OF RAINFALL WITH RESPECT TO POTENTIAL FLOODING.

NAM INDICATES A DRYING TREND STARTING AROUND SUNDAY WITH A WEAK
UPPER RIDGE TRANSITING THE AREA...BUT GFS SHOWS MORE INFLUENCE OF
WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE FROM UPPER LOW AND IS A WETTER SOLUTION.
ECMWF SUPPORTS SLIGHTLY DRIER WEATHER SUNDAY FOR THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. HAVE TRIMMED BACK ON POPS OVER THE SAWTOOTHS STARTING
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ONLY MINOR CHANGES WARRANTED FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS MODELS STRUGGLE TO COME TO TERMS WITH RESPECT TO THE UPPER
LOW SAGGING INTO THE PUGET SOUND AREA. GFS HAS IT MORE STATIONARY
WHILE THE ECMWF SLOWLY PROGRESSES THE LOW ACROSS NORTHERN IDAHO.
HINSBERGER

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY MOVE TO THE GREAT BASIN BY SATURDAY. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AGAIN TODAY...WITH MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE. OVERALL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL...WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE IN PRECIP. HEDGES
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AN UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY MOVE TO THE GREAT BASIN BY SATURDAY. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS TREND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. HEDGES
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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