Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 270851
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
251 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...THE MAIN WEATHER EVENT FOR THE WEEK IS ON OUR
DOORSTEP THIS MORNING. THERE HAS BEEN PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND
STORMS BASICALLY FROM THE INL COMPLEX TO ISLAND PARK AS OF 230AM.
MORE ACTIVITY WAS DEVELOPING TO THE WEST AS THE MAIN PUSH WITH
THIS STORM WAS MOVING INTO WESTERN IDAHO. THE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY
SWING ACROSS THE STATE TODAY BRING WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGHEST CHANCES AND WHERE MORE
MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO FALL WILL BE IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS AND PLAIN. WE ARE STILL LOOKING FOR SNOW
LEVELS TO DROP ENOUGH FOR SOME BRIEF BUT WET SNOW ON THE HIGHEST
PEAKS IN THOSE AREAS. FARTHER SOUTH...THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE STRONGEST OF TWO
COLD FRONTS. ANOTHER ISSUE WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY WILL BE
STRONG WINDS...AS ALREADY WITNESSED WITH 50-55MPH OVERNIGHT WITH
WEAKER CELLS. TEMPERATURES TODAY IN SOME AREAS MAY HAVE ALREADY
HIT THEIR HIGHS OR PRETTY CLOSE TO THEM. VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE 60S TO MID 70S...WITH 40S AND 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
THAT IS ABOUT 15-25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WE MAY ACTUALLY SEE A
COUPLE OF INTERESTING RECORDS SET TODAY...THAT BEING THE COOLEST
HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THIS DATE. THE OTHER BIG ISSUE WILL THE WINDS
LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-35 MPH ARE
LIKELY WITH GUSTS OF 30-45 MPH. ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN...THEY MAY
EVEN PEAK IN THE 50-55 MPH RANGE FOR A BRIEF TIME. THE WINDS IN
THE UPPER PLAIN MAY PROVE MORE CHALLENGING AS IT`S HARD TO TELL
THE WINDS ARE ALREADY OVERALL TURNING MORE WEST TO NORTHWEST...OR
IF OUTFLOW FROM STORMS ARE JUST MAKING IT LOOK LIKE THEY ARE. EVEN
IF THEY ARE OVERALL IN THAT DIRECTION...WE SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF
STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS BEFORE SWITCHING BACK. WITH THIS AMOUNT
OF WIND...LARGER VEHICLES WILL EXPERIENCE ROUGH DRIVING
CONDITIONS AS WELL AS ISSUES ON SOME LAKES. BLOWING DUST WILL
LIKELY PICK UP AS WELL. THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE PLAIN REMAINS IN
PLACE. EVERYTHING QUICKLY SHIFTS TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT WITH
MAYBE A FEW SHOWERS LEFT OVER AROUND ISLAND PARK BY MORNING. THE
WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIE OFF. THE MODELS DO HINT A CONVERGENCE BAND
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ARCO DESERT TO IDAHO FALLS FOR A BIT THIS
EVENING BEFORE THE SYSTEM DEPARTS. WE DID ACCOUNT FOR THAT WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE EVENING HOURS. DRIER AND COLDER AIR IN
PLACE...EXPECT SOME PRETTY COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE MORNING. THE
MOUNTAINS WILL DROP INTO THE 20S AND 30S...AND VALLEYS WILL RANGE
FROM AROUND 35-45 DEGREES. WE COULD SEE SOME POCKETS OF FROST AND
FREEZE CONDITIONS...SO YOU MIGHT WANT TO THINK ABOUT PREPARING
VEGETATION AND OUTDOOR PETS FOR SUCH CONDITIONS. ALSO DON`T BE
SURPRISED IF WE GET CLOSE OR BREAK FEW RECORDS. KEYES

.LONG TERM...DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK AND
NEXT WEEKEND. THE COOL WEATHER WILL STICK AROUND TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. WE SHOULD BE WARMER TOMORROW BUT NOT LOOKING AT A
HUGE JUMP. DRY AIR AND CALM WINDS WILL MEAN ANOTHER CHILLY MORNING
WITH POCKETS OF FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS. THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
RECORD LOWS AND COOLEST HIGH TEMPERATURES IS THERE.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A BIG WARMUP AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO
THE WEST. BY THE WEEKEND...SOME MONSOON MOISTURE WORKS UP THE WEST
SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND INTO IDAHO. FOR NOW...WE HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS. EXPECT IT STAY WARM
THOUGH. KEYES

&&

.AVIATION...STRONG UPPER TROF WILL PROGRESS ACROSS SOUTHEAST IDAHO
TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS VICINITY AT ALL TAF SITES BEGINNING
12Z. WILL LOOK FOR SOME CLEARING AT KBYI AROUND 18Z AND KSUN AROUND
21-22Z...AND KPIH ABOUT 24Z. KIDA MAY NOT CLEAR OUT UNTIL 28/02Z.
STRONG SURFACE WINDS SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS INTO THE 40S
EXPECTED AT KBYI...KPIH AND KIDA THROUGH 28/02-03Z. WIDESPREAD VFR
TUESDAY AT ALL TAF SITES. RS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING SOUTHEAST
IDAHO TODAY. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL AFFECT PRETTY MUCH EVERY WHERE. CLEARING FROM THE WEST IS
EXPECTED IN THE MIDDLE SNAKE PLAIN AROUND SHOSHONE TO BURLEY BY
NOONTIME. WETTING RAINS EXPECTED NORTH OF ATLANTA-MACKAY...DUBOIS-
ISLAND PARK...PERHAPS ASHTON HILL THIS EVENING. TO THE
SOUTH...MOSTLY TRACE TO .03 INCHES. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST FROM
SHOSHONE TO POCATELLO AND NORTH TO ARCO AND IDAHO FALLS. WEST-
SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH GUST UP TO 40 MPH. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
FAVORED IN LITTLE LOST...BIG LOST AND LEMHI-BIRCH CREEK INTO THE
ARCO DESERT. ABOUT 15 DEGREES COLDER TODAY. MINIMUM HUMIDITY 20-25
PERCENT IN THE LOWER VALLEYS. MUCH DRIER TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
UNDER LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE SNAKE PLAIN WILL BE APPROACHING
SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITY BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WE STILL SEE SOME
SIGNS OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS NEXT
WEEKEND...WITH MONSOON MOISTURE SWINGING WIDE THROUGH CALIFORNIA AND
THEN TO IDAHO PERHAPS AS EARLY AS SATURDAY...BUT SUNDAY LOOKS MORE
REASONABLE. RS

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR IDZ017-020-021.

&&

$$



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