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000
FXUS65 KPIH 200900
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
300 AM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MONSOON MOISTURE WILL
FINALLY SURGE INTO EASTERN IDAHO TODAY. THIS WILL HELP BRING SOME
WET WEATHER TO OUR REGION THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.
STORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF THE SNAKE PLAIN FOR
THE MOST PART. A STRAY STORM OR TWO COULD FIRE ELSEWHERE...MAINLY ACROSS
THE SNAKE PLAIN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. BRIEF DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY
WINDS OVER 45MPH ARE POSSIBLE. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL SPREAD OVER
ENTIRE REGION TONIGHT...WITH THE MAIN BAND OF RAIN SHIFTING TO THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS.
ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL PERSIST FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
DARK. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS...IT WILL BE A BIT BREEZY AT TIMES
BUT NOTHING THAT WILL CAUSE ANY IMPACTS OF NOTE. THE PATTERN FOR
TOMORROW IS A BIT COMPLEX. WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE THE MAIN BAND
OF RAIN SIT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND UPPER
SNAKE HIGHLANDS. THESE AREAS WILL SEE A GENTLE SOAKING RAIN IN THE
MORNING...WHILE FARTHER SOUTH ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE ISOLATED.
THE TRICKY PART OF THE FORECAST TOMORROW WILL BE WHERE WE SEE
ENOUGH CLOUD BREAKS AND INSTABILITY DEVELOPING. RIGHT NOW...WE
THINK THAT THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL SEE ENOUGH CLOUD COVER THAT
STORMS WILL ISOLATED AND EMBEDDED IN THE MAIN RAIN AREA. ACROSS
THE REST OF THE AREA...WE ARE FORECASTING BETTER INSTABILITY DUE
TO MORE SUNSHINE WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO RAPIDLY
FIRE OFF CLOSER TO NOON AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ANYTHING THAT
DEVELOPS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND
PROBABLY SOME HAIL. WE WILL BE MONITORING THE HEAVY RAIN
THREAT...BUT FOR NOW WE DON`T THINK A WATCH IS NECESSARY. WE WILL
ALSO BE LOOKING AT STRONG STORMS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
SEVERE ONES AS WELL. WITH MORE CLOUD AND STORM
COVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER...10-15 DEGREES COOLER
IN MOST INSTANCES. FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND NEAR THE DIVIDE...WHILE
DRIER AIR WORKS IN FORM THE SOUTHWEST. WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES
QUICKLY REBOUND ALONG WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS RETURNING. KEYES



.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THE LOW
OFFSHORE WILL FINALLY SCOOT OFF INTO CANADA. THIS WILL TURN THE
FLOW PATTERN BACK TO THE WEST AND PULL IN MUCH DRIER AIR...MUCH
SIMILAR TO WHAT WE`VE SEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS. THIS WILL INITIALLY
COOL THINGS OFF FOR MIDWEEK. HOWEVER...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK OVER THE REGION AFTER THAT WE WILL SEE A WARMUP. WITH THE DRY
AIR MOVING IN...WE WILL BE LOOKING AT SOME WILD SWINGS BETWEEN
MORNING AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.  KEYES


&&

.AVIATION...EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS SHOWING A MODERATELY
STRONG PAC JET PUNCHING EAST ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER WHILE
FURTHER SOUTH...A WELL DEFINED SUB-TROPICAL WAVE WAS NOTED LIFTING
NORTH INTO SRN NEVADA. THE MODELS GENERALLY SHOW THE DRY WEST FLOW
CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION GIVING WAY TO A MOIST SUB-TROPICAL PUSH
FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL WORK
NORTH INTO THE SRN HIGHLANDS THIS AFTERNOON ON THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE MONSOON FLOW POSSIBLY SPILLING INTO THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN/CNTRL
MOUNTAINS BY LATE AFTN. THE THREAT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WHILE VFR
MID-LEVEL CIGS PREVAIL AFTER THE ONSET OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
HUSTON

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS SHOWING A
MODERATELY STRONG PAC JET PUNCHING EAST ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER
WHILE FURTHER SOUTH...A WELL DEFINED SUB-TROPICAL WAVE WAS NOTED
LIFTING NORTH INTO SRN NEVADA. THE MODELS GENERALLY SHOW THE DRY
WEST FLOW CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION GIVING WAY TO A MOIST
SUB-TROPICAL PUSH FROM THE SOUTH BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE SRN HIGHLANDS THIS AFTERNOON ON
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MONSOON PUSH AND A RED FLAG WARNING
CONTINUES FOR THAT REGION FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE NIGHT.
MOST OF THE STORMS SHOULD START OUT DRY BECOMING PROGRESSIVELY
WETTER THIS EVENING AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO
THE REGION. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY VERY WELL SPILL INTO THE SNAKE
PLAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT AND THE WARNING MAY NEED TO BE
EXPANDED TO FIRE WEATHER ZONES 425 AND 410. A RED FLAG WARNING ALSO
CONTINUES FOR THE CNTRL MOUNTAIN FIRE WEATHER ZONE 422 WHICH WAS
ORIGINALLY BASED UPON SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. HOWEVER...THE
MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT MIXED IN THIS REGARD THIS MORNING...AND A
COMBINATION OF WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE COUPLED WITH
LOW HUMIDITY AND GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
THE CONTINUATION OF THE WARNING IN THAT REGION. WIDESPREAD FAIRLY
WET THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY
WITH MOISTURE LEVELS SUPPORTING FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL AND MINIMUM
HUMIDITY GENERALLY NOT DROPPING LOWER THAN 25-30 PERCENT IN MOST
AREAS. THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE SW FLOW CONTINUES TUESDAY AS A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLES INTO THE NW COASTAL WATERS. DRIER
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE LOW EJECTS
NE INTO CANADA AND A DRY PAC COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING ANOTHER RED FLAG EVENT FOR STRONG GUSTY
WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY TO THE REGION. HUSTON


&&

.AIR STAGNATION...WILDFIRE SMOKE CONTINUES TO POSE A PROBLEM
ACROSS EASTERN IDAHO...BOTH FROM FIRES IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
AND TO OUR NORTHWEST. BASED ON SMOKE FORECASTS...IT APPEARS MOST
OF THE SMOKE HERE HAS ACTUALLY BECOMING FROM OREGON WITH SOME
CONTRIBUTION TO THE BIG FIRES IN WASHINGTON. AN AIR QUALITY ALERT
REMAINS IN PLACE FOR BLAINE...CASSIA...LINCOLN AND MINIDOKA
COUNTIES. HOWEVER...SOME RELIEF IS HOPEFULLY COMING IN THE FORM OF
RAIN. IF ENOUGH FALLS...IT WOULD HELP CLEAR OUT THE AIR. WITH THE
WIND PATTERN ALSO SHIFTING MORE OUT OF THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST...THAT MAY ALSO SEND SMOKE MORE TOWARD MONTANA AND
NORTHERN IDAHO. KEYES

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM MDT MONDAY
IDZ427.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM MDT MONDAY
IDZ422.

&&

$$