Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 252008
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
208 PM MDT THU JUN 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...STRONG UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. MAIN IMPACT WILL BE HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH RECORD OR
NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES MAINLY SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. CENTER OF
RIDGE AXIS THROUGH WESTERN PORTIONS OF FCST AREA AND MOISTURE
TRYING TO ROTATE AROUND THE HIGH THROUGH COASTAL STATES INTO EAST
IDAHO. BELIEVE IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GET ANYTHING OF SIGNIFICANCE
TO DEVELOP UNDER THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE. MODELS PRODUCING
POCKETS OF CONVECTION MAINLY HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS BUT
INDICATIONS ARE ANYTHING THAT COULD DEVELOP WILL BE ISOLATED AND
WITH LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION. HAVE KEPT POPS ISOLATED MAINLY
IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WHERE MOISTURE HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF
ENCROACHING INTO THE REGION. RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST SLIGHTLY
MONDAY WHICH LOOKS TO ALLOW A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE AGAIN
MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL MTNS. SHORTWAVE SLIDES ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. RIDGE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW FOR BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION.
ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT ALONG WITH WEAKENING OF THE
RIDGE SHOULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHT COOLING FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND. THAT
SAID...GUIDANCE STILL HOLDS TEMPS WELL INTO THE 90S ACROSS EAST
IDAHO SO THE THREAT FOR NEAR RECORD HIGHS COULD CONTINUE FOR SOME
LOCATIONS EVEN INTO NEXT WEEK. DMH


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
LIGHT WINDS GENERALLY 10 KTS OR LESS EXCEPT FOR THE OCCASIONAL
HIGHER GUST IN THE SNAKE PLAIN. AD/JAH


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WELL ADVERTISED WARM UP REMAINS ON TRACK AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE CLOSES OFF OVER THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT AND
STRENGTHENS WHILE REMAINING ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ENSURE RECORD OR NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES
AND LOW HUMIDITY VALUES REMAIN THROUGH TUESDAY. SOME MOISTURE
ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS BY
SUNDAY...WITH COVERAGE PERHAPS INCREASING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. BY MIDWEEK...THIS
MOISTURE SHIFTS SOUTHWARD GREATLY REDUCING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY COOL SLIGHTLY BY MIDWEEK...STILL
REMAINING AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. AD/JAH


&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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