Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 171621
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
1021 AM MDT SUN MAY 17 2015

.UPDATE...UPDATED THIS MORNING TO REMOVE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS
FOR PORTIONS OF THE UPPER SNAKE PLAIN AND UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE AIRMASS IS MUCH MORE STABLE
TODAY. GAVE SOME BENEFIT OF DOUBT AND LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE IN FOR
THE SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS AND SOME OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WHERE A
LITTLE BIT OF HEATING AND UPSLOPE WINDS COULD CREATE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY. RS
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 AM MDT SUN MAY 17 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND MONDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE STATE. THAT SHOULD HELP TEMPER A BIT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED STORMS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE PRECIPITATION THIS
MORNING WIND DOWN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
HIGHLANDS. BY LATE MORNING...MORE WILL POP BACK UP AS WE STARTING
HEATING UP AND CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. THE HIGHEST CHANCES
WILL BE IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. WE ARE LOOKING FOR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TO FINALLY BE
LIGHTER...BUT WITH ALL OF THE MOISTURE AROUND LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH OF A BREAK
BEFORE THE NEXT STORM PUSHES INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING MORE MOISTURE AND SHOWERS/STORMS TO
EASTERN IDAHO. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING UP A FEW DEGREES EACH
DAY...BUT WE WILL STILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 60S EVEN
MONDAY. MORE MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY IF WE GET SLOWER MOVING BANDS AND GOOD DOWNPOURS FROM
THUNDERSTORMS. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE RISING...BUT HIGHER PEAKS WILL
STILL SEE OCCASIONAL WET SNOW FALLING. KEYES

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THE MOISTURE TRAIN
CONTINUES AS THE FIRST LOW WILL BE SLOWLY LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE PLAINS THROUGH MIDWEEK. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY
ANOTHER LOW MOVING INTO THE WEST. THE FIRST STORM LOOKS TO FOLLOW
A VERY SIMILAR PATH AS THE ONE MOVING OUT. THE SECOND MAY COME IN
A BIT FARTHER SOUTH. ALL IN ALL...EXPECT MORE RAIN AND OCCASIONAL
MOUNTAIN SNOW. WE WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO WATCH AND SEE IF THE
GROUND HANDLES ALL OF THIS MOISTURE. IT SEEMS THAT SOME RISES ON
SMALL STREAM AND CREEKS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WHERE WE HAVE
A LOT OF TERRAIN...ALL OF THIS RAIN MAY PROMOTE A HIGHER THREAT OF
ROCK OR MUD SLIDES. SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT AS WE APPROACH THE
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. KEYES

AVIATION...A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE DRIER WEATHER
OVER THE REGION TODAY. STILL EXPECTING A FEW SHOWERS AROUND
TODAY...NOTABLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MAY HAVE A FEW AREAS OF
MVFR CEILINGS AROUND THIS MORNING...EXPECT THOSE TO QUICKLY LIFT
INTO A VFR DECK. WINDS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT TODAY.

VALLE

FIRE WEATHER....A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE SOMEWHAT
DRIER WEATHER TODAY. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHLANDS. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...PRODUCING BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS.

VALLE

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$



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