Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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000
FXUS65 KPIH 160857
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
257 AM MDT THU OCT 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SAT NIGHT. RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS NOT
EXPECTED TO GENERATE ANY PRECIPITATION AS MOST OF THE GOOD
MOISTURE IS ABOVE 600MB. THIS CONTINUES OFF AND ON OVER THIS
PERIOD WITH MID- AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND NEAR ZERO
PRECIPITATION. AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SLOWLY BUILDS IN DURING THIS
PERIOD...THE WINDS ARE LIGHT AND THUS THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IS
TEMPERATURE...ESPECIALLY THE OVERNIGHT LOW. THE MOS-GUIDANCE HAS
HAD A COLD BIAS FOR SEVERAL DAYS...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN BIAS
CORRECTIONS SUGGESTED BY THE VARIOUS GRIDDED FORECASTS AVAILABLE.
HAVE GONE WITH THE CURRENT BIAS CORRECTED ALLBLEND AND SREF
GUIDANCE...WITH A LOWERING OF THE BIAS SINCE WE HAVE HAD AN
AIRMASS CHANGE THAT COULD CHANGE THE BIAS SIGNIFICANTLY. WHAT IS
NOT IN DOUBT IS THE WARMING TREND TO BOTH THE OVERNIGHT LOWS AND
AFTERNOON HIGHS DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR FRI/SAT. MESSICK

.LONG TERM...SUN THROUGH WED NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REACHES ITS
PEAK ON SUN AND THEN BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT
ONSHORE TROUGH. PRECIPITATION THREAT DEVELOPS AGAIN IN THE WESTERN
ZONES AS EARLY AS MON NIGHT...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR TUE/TUE
NIGHT/WED PERIOD. ECMWF AND GFS ARE VERY SIMILAR IN TIMING AND
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. MAINLY FAVORS THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS.
THIS WILL LIKELY BE A HIGH ELEVATION SNOW EVENT...ALTHOUGH THERE
IS STRONG SOUTHERLY PRE-FRONTAL WIND AS EVIDENCED BY MON
TEMPERATURES 10 TO 14 DEG F ABOVE NORMAL. POPS FOR THIS EVENT ARE
RATHER LOW AND THAT IS PROBABLY DUE MORE TO THE RUN TO RUN
INSTABILITY OF THE SOLUTIONS. MESSICK

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE LIGHT WINDS AND VFR
CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND.

VALLE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

VALLE

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







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