Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
000
FXUS65 KPIH 170914
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
314 AM MDT THU APR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...FROM LOOKING AT SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS
MORNING...MOISTURE IS ADVANCING INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF IDAHO.
THE RIDGE MAY BE A LITTLE FLATTER AND THERE COULD BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW ON THE MOUNTAINS IN CUSTER COUNTY
TODAY. THEN TONIGHT THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ALSO MOVES
QUICKLY...REACHING THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS NEAR MIDNIGHT. PREFER THE
LOOK OF THE NAM12 SURFACE FEATURES...WITH LEE SIDE TROUGHING
SHOWING IN MONTANA BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND THE ARCO DESERT
JUST A FEW HOURS LATER. SURFACE FRONT SHOULD REACH BURLEY ABOUT 4
OR 5 AM FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE NOT REAL CONVINCING ON ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS...BUT THERE IS EVIDENCE OF COLDER AIR ADVECTION OF
-10C/12HR AT 700 MB. DECIDED TO BOOST WINDS IN THE EASTERN MAGIC
VALLEY FRIDAY MORNING WITH EARLY FRONTAL PASSAGE. DID NOT CHANGE
FORECAST WINDS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE SNAKE PLAIN...RATHER WILL
LET THE DAY SHIFT TODAY HAVE ANOTHER GO AT IT. TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION ADVANCING ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN ALSO LOOKS CLOSER
TO NOON TIME...SO TIMING OF JUST ABOUT EVERYTHING WAS MOVED UP A
FEW HOURS. FINDING INSTABILITY IN THE MODELS FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS
A CHALLENGE. THIS DISTURBANCE SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE AGGRESSIVE SO
ALSO KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST...MOSTLY FOR THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND CARIBOU HIGHLANDS
AREAS. SOUTH SURFACE WINDS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD PROVIDE
DOWN SLOPE WARMING ALONG THE FOOTHILLS BETWEEN BURLEY AND
POCATELLO...THUS WARMED MORNING LOWS INTO THE 40-45F RANGE. BY
FRIDAY EVENING JUST A FEW SHOWERS SHOULD LINGER AROUND SODA
SPRINGS AND BEAR LAKE. SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MODELS ARE
INCONSISTENT BUT ARE SHOWING A MINOR DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE PAN
HANDLE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...ALSO ALONG THE FOOTHILLS OF THE
SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. RS

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
WARM AND DRY TO START THE WEEK BUT THAT WILL QUICKLY CHANGE AS A
LARGE SCALE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS POISED TO SLOWLY SPIN ACROSS
THE INTER MOUNTAIN REGION FOR MID WEEK.  ISOLATED CONVECTION AND A
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM ON MONDAY ALONG THE UTAH / IDAHO BORDER.  AS
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW BECOMES MORE PUNCTUATED ON TUESDAY THE
LIKELIHOOD FOR MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INCREASES.
WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY.  THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL
PRODUCE SNOW ON MID AND HIGH LEVEL TERRAIN STARTING WEDNESDAY AND
LINGERING INTO THURSDAY WITH A COOL DOWN INTO THE 40S AND 50S ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  PRESTON

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH ONLY SOME MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER. NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHING BY THIS EVENING WITH LOWERING CLOUD DECK AND
GRADIENT WINDS OVERNIGHT.  PRECIPITATION BY FRIDAY MORNING WILL
PRODUCE AREAS OF MVFR DUE TO LOWER CEILINGS AND BRIEF PERIODS OF
LOWER VISIBILITY IN RAIN SHOWERS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND HIGHER
TERRAIN SNOW SHOWERS.  PRESTON
GK

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$







USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.