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000
FXUS65 KPIH 151954
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
154 PM MDT WED MAY 15 2013

.SHORT TERM...A LOW PRESSURE DISTURBANCE CROSSING SOUTHERN NEVADA
AND UTAH THIS AFTERNOON IS RESPONSIBLE FOR ISOLATED LIGHTNING
STRIKES NEAR PINDALE WYOMING. THIS FEATURE IS MOVING EAST AND
PROBABLY WILL NOT BE A FACTOR FOR THIS AREA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE EXTENDING FROM MONTANA SOUTHWARD
INTO NEVADA. ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED NEAR
JACK POT THIS AFTERNOON AND ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CELLS MAY
DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS...AND
POSSIBLY THE UPPER SNAKE PLAIN THIS EVENING.

MOIST SOUTHERN STREAM ACROSS THE PACIFIC WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHEAST IDAHO THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE GULF OF
ALASKA AREA IS ALSO SHOWING A FEW DISTURBANCES THAT ARE SPLITTING
AS THEY APPROACH THE COAST. ONE DISTURBANCE OFF THE OREGON COAST
DIGS A LITTLE SOUTH AS IT MOVES INLAND THURSDAY. THIS PUTS THIS
AREA IN UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH ISOLATED OR GREATER NON SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MOST ANYWHERE. MODEL TREND HAS BEEN TO DEEPEN THIS
TROUGH AROUND LAS VEGAS ON FRIDAY. EASTWARD PROGRESSION IS SLOWING
SOME AND SHOULD RESULT IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS EARLY FRIDAY...PROGRESSING TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL
AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION UP TO A QUARTER INCH FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THERE MAY BE SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ON MOUNTAIN RIDGES
ABOVE 9000 FEET ELEVATIONS BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. VALLEY
TEMPERATURES DROP TO THE MIDDLE 60S THIS WEEKEND. RS

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MODELS SHOW GOOD
CONSISTENCY WITH UPPER TROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
ACROSS PAC NW. UPPER JET REMAINS OVER GREAT BASIN WITH WEAK STEERING
FLOW OVER SOUTHERN ID. BLOCKING PATTERN APPEARS TO BEGIN DEVELOPING
TO OUR EAST AS UPPER LOW FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A SHARP
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MODELS ADVERTISE A
TRANSITORY RIDGE MOVING ACROSS IDAHO MONDAY NIGHT WHILE AN UPPER LOW
DEEPENS OFF THE WA/OR COAST. THE LOW IS ADVERTISED BY ALL THE
LONG-TERM MODELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IT APPEARS THE REGION WILL BE
UNDER ITS INFLUENCE THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.  HINSBERGER
&&

.AVIATION...UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY ALONG THE WA/OR COAST
IS PUSHING INLAND. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT OF THE
UTAH DESERT TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY. THE COUPLED ENERGIES FROM THE
SHORTWAVES SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING. HIGHEST THREAT
FOR THUNDER WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST HIGHLANDS WHERE MUCAPES ARE
500 TO 1000 J/KG. HINSBERGER
&&


.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$