Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 230847
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
247 AM MDT SUN AUG 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...DRY WEST/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SEEN ON WV IMAGERY
THIS MORNING WITH MONSOON MOISTURE POOLING AROUND THE FOUR-CORNERS
AREA. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING AN AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER RIDGING OVER
THE WEST STARTING MONDAY. SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE
POSSIBLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT MAY CLEAR SOONER AS WINDS ALOFT
SHIFT MORE WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY WITH THE SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION
OF THE RIDGE. BY WEDNESDAY...MONSOON MOISTURE SHOULD REACH OUR
SOUTHERN BORDER WITH BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS LIFTING A WAVE THROUGH
THE UPPER RIDGE. WILL KEEP WITH SLIGHT CHANCE AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
HINSBERGER

&&

.AVIATION...KIDA AND KPIH BOTH REPORTING SMOKE THIS MORNING UNDER
VARIABLE TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. WINDS MAY WELL MOVE SOME OF THIS
SMOKE TOWARDS BURLEY THIS MORNING. THIS AFTERNOON WE SHOULD BE
GETTING BACK TO A MORE THERMAL DRIVEN SENSE TO MOUNTAIN AND VALLEY
WINDS THAT MAY HELP KBYI AND PERHAPS KPIH. MONDAY...THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST TRANSPORT WINDS INCREASE A BIT AND WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTING EAST...EXPECT A LITTLE LEE SIDE TROUGHING. THIS MAY HELP
THIN THE SMOKE. RS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND ABOUT 8 TO 10
DEGREES TODAY WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING OVERHEAD. PORTIONS
OF CUSTER AND LEMHI COUNTY WILL SEE THE HAINES INDEX INCREASE TO A
MARGINAL 6 THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON MONDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL
STILL SHOW AND EASTERLY DIRECTION THIS MORNING...PARTICULARLY IN THE
LOWER SNAKE PLAIN...BY THIS AFTERNOON A MORE TYPICAL THERMALLY
DRIVEN PATTERN SHOULD RETURN INMOST AREAS. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON THE
RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT TOWARDS WESTERN WYOMING. SOUTHWESTERLY
TRANSPORT WINDS WILL INCREASE IN STRENGTH TO PROVIDE SOME VENTING OF
SMOKE. THERE WILL ALSO BE A WEAK FRONTAL FEATURE DEVELOP IN WESTERN
MONTANA AND TRAILING INTO CUSTER COUNTY THAT WILL BOOST AFTERNOON
WINDS TO THE 5 TO 12 MPH RANGE IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE IN THE AREA AROUND GRAYS LAKE. WE
ARE STILL EXPECTING SOME MONSOON MOISTURE TO SLIP BACK INTO IDAHO
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. RS

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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