Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 022044
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
144 PM MST TUE FEB 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. LITTLE CHANGE IN SENSIBLE
WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS COOL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS
IN PLACE. AREAS OF FREEZING FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE INTERSTATE CORRIDOR FROM POCATELLO TO ROBERTS AND
OVER THE MONTANA BORDER REGION TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST HIGHLANDS AS
WELL WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS UP TO ONE INCH. THE NEXT
WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL IS ANTICIPATED TO ADVANCE FROM WEST TO EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...BEGINNING FIRST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS
ALL OF SE IDAHO THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WHICH MAY CAUSE SOME LOCAL BLOWING
SNOW...PARTICULARLY AT PASS LEVEL. THIS SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE
THURSDAY MORNING COMMUTE AND MAY LEAD TO SOME AREAS OF DIFFICULT
TRAVEL. SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO END ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS
FRIDAY MORNING. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES...WITH THE LOWEST TOTALS IN THE SNAKE PLAIN AND
THE HIGHEST TOTALS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN
HIGHLANDS. AD/MESSICK

.LONG TERM...FRI NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUE NIGHT. LONG WAVE FORECAST
FOR THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN/NORTHERN ROCKIES IS EVEN STRONGER WITH
A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS DEVELOPING DURING THIS
PERIOD OVER THE REGION. THE LAST TROUGH TO PASS THROUGH IS STILL ON
SAT/SAT NIGHT...BUT LOOKS TO PUT DOWN LESS PRECIPITATION THAN
YESTERDAY. ALSO...WINDS ARE NOT AS STRONG IN THE POST-FRONTAL REGIME
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTER ITS PASSAGE...THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ON BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BUILDS A RIDGE WITH 580DM-PLUS 500MB
HEIGHTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ONLY THE GFS
DEVELOPS PRECIPITATION UNDER THIS...AND MAINLY BELIEVE THIS IS JUST
MORNING FOG/DRIZZLE. HAVE CONTINUED TO DRY OUT THE PART OF THIS
PERIOD AFTER SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES MAY NOT GET AS WARM AS MOS
GUIDANCE WANTS TO INDICATE...AS THE STRATUS WILL BLOCK THE SUN IN
THE VALLEY. MESSICK


&&

.AVIATION...STRATUS AND FOG EXPECTED TO WREAK HAVOC AGAIN TONIGHT
AND IN THE MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE. KSUN AIRDROME
WILL BE ABOVE IT ALL WITH CONTINUING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW KEEPING THE
STRATUS AND FOG AT LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THE WOOD RIVER
VALLEY...HOWEVER THIS COULD CHANGE IF WIND SHIFTS TO SOUTHEAST AND
ADVECTS THE FOG AND STRATUS UPSLOPE. THE VALLEY AIRDROMES WILL BE
HIT MUCH WORSE. KIDA CAN EXPECT CLOSURE FOR ARRIVALS WITH CIG AND
VSBY AFFECTED. KPIH SHOULD BE WORSE THAN TUE MORNING...WHILE KBYI IS
ONLY EXPECTED TO BE MARGINAL VFR. MESSICK


&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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