Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 242017
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
217 PM MDT SUN APR 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...A FEW SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
BETWEEN SUN VALLEY AND MONIDA PASS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. LOW PRESSURE TROUGH CURRENTLY ADVANCING INTO THE WEST
COAST AND EXPECTED TO DEVELOP A CLOSED CIRCULATION ACROSS NEVADA
AND UTAH MONDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL WRAP AROUND THE LOW INTO THE
SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS EARLY MORNING...REACHING INTO THE LOWER
SNAKE PLAIN AND CARIBOU HIGHLANDS BY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL BANDS
OF PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP IN SOUTHWEST MONTANA ACROSS THE
PORTIONS OF CUSTER COUNTY. SNOW LEVELS MONDAY MORNING NEAR BURLEY
EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 6200 TO 6400 FEET ELEVATION AND SLOPING DOWN
IN COLDER AIR TO THE WEST. ACCUMULATION COULD BE 4 TO 8 INCHES
NEAR MAGIC MOUNTAIN AND POSSIBLY POMERELLE BECAUSE OF HIGHER
ELEVATION TERRAIN. THAT SHOULD NOT BE VERY WIDE SPREAD FOR THIS
FORECAST AREA...SNOW LEVELS SLOPE HIGHER TO THE EAST. THEREFORE
WILL NOT GO WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. CENTER OF THE CLOSED
LOW TRACKS THROUGH CENTRAL UTAH INTO COLORADO MONDAY NIGHT. SOME
OF THAT COLDER AIR AND LOWER SNOW LEVELS COULD BE FELT AT CITY OF
ROCKS...PERHAPS AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
EXTEND INTO THE CARIBOU HIGHLANDS AND LOWER SNAKE PLAIN TUESDAY
BEFORE BREAKING OFF TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. MODELS
AGREE IN LIFTING THE LOW INTO WYOMING MONTANA WEDNESDAY...WHICH
LEAVES SOUTHEAST IDAHO BETWEEN IT AND THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
ENTERING SOUTH NEVADA. WE STILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY...JUST NOT IN AN ORGANIZED FASHION. RS

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF MODELS SHOW LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS INTO THE EARLY EVENING
FROM INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.  THIS NEXT
SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY BRINGING MOSTLY AFTERNOON
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. FRIDAY LOOK FOR A REPEAT OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS BUT
MAINLY OVER OUT EASTERN HIGHLANDS AND TO AN LESSER EXTENT THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. BOTH MODELS BUILD IN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OUR
WESTERN AREAS AND DROP ANOTHER SYSTEM DOWN FROM MONTANA ACROSS OUR
EASTERN AREAS ON SUNDAY. BOTH MODELS START TO DRY THE AREA OUT
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS OUR
WHOLE AREA. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF PERIOD BECOMING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY
SUNDAY. WYATT

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT LINGERING MVFR CIGS BRIEFLY FOR KIDA THIS
AFTERNOON. KSUN WILL SEE VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS BRIEFLY THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT CIGS TO RISE SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING BEFORE STARTING TO DROP TOMORROW MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH. KBYI WILL LIKELY SEE MVFR CIGS
LATE TOMORROW MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH RAIN
SHOWERS ON STATION. KPIH AND KIDA MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CIGS TOMORROW
MORNING BRIEFLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM HITTING. THEN...KPIH AND
KIDA AS WELL AS KSUN WILL LIKELY SEE MVFR CIGS IN THE AFTERNOON
DURING RAIN SHOWERS. WYATT

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


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