Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 200331
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
932 PM MDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A QUICK UPDATE THIS EVENING TO
NUDGE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL DOWN SOME FOLLOWING LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE BUT MAINLY TO CHECK THAT ALL COMMS ARE WORKING CORRECTLY
AFTER EARLIER ISSUES. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW. HUSTON

WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION IS LIMITING SURFACE HEATING
AND INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW SOME
STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT. FOR THIS EVENING HAVE LIMITED ANY MENTION
OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND A PORTION OF THE SOUTH
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. IN THE PAST 6 HOURS ANOTHER .2 TO .3 INCH OF RAIN
HAS FALLEN OVER THE CARIBOU HIGHLANDS. LOCAL RIVERS AND STREAMS HAVE
A WAYS TO GO BEFORE ANY PROBLEMS DEVELOP IN THAT RESPECT. THE LOW
PRESSURE DISTURBANCE CROSSING NEVADA AND UTAH THIS AFTERNOON MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST TONIGHT. THIS LEAVES THE WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH
SHOULD SHIFT TOWARDS THE MONTANA LINE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. BY
THURSDAY...A NEW LOW DEVELOPS NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST...MOVING
INLAND THROUGH EXTREME SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY. THE SYSTEM
TRACKING FURTHER SOUTH STILL PUTS SOUTHEAST IDAHO UNDER SOUTHERLY
FLOW...BUT WITH LESS SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN OR EVEN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THUS THE CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS A
LOWER PROBABILITY OF OF PRECIPITATION THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE
GFS MODEL SHOWS THE LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND THAT
COULD REFOCUS PRECIPITATION OVER THIS AREA BY THE WEEKEND. RS
&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR. SCATTERED MVFR SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EARLY EVENING...MAINLY NORTH. MOUNTAINS
OBSCURED. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY EAST 12KT OR LESS...BUT GUSTS TO
NEAR 30KTS NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ALOFT...GENERALLY
NORTHEAST 10-20KT UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL.
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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