Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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000
FXUS65 KPIH 021017
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
317 AM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WED NIGHT. TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTH WILL MERGE WITH MOISTURE COMING UP FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT.
WHILE IT WILL MEAN HEAVY PRECIPITATION FOR UTAH AND WESTERN
COLORADO...SOME MODERATE AMOUNTS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT SOUTHEAST
OF A LINE THAT RUNS FROM JUST EAST OF BURLEY TO THE MACKS INN AREA
NEAR THE MEETING POINT OF MT-WY-ID. FOR THE LAST FEW RUNS...THE
24 HOUR SNOW FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUE LATE AFTERNOON IS 1 TO
3 INCHES IN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN. WITH THE GENERAL NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...THE RAIN SHADOW SHOULD BE ON THE MUD LAKE-ARCO-CAREY
SIDE OF THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN...WITH ENHANCED AREAS IN THE
INTERSTATES 15 AND 86 CORRIDOR. ALSO...5 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
IN SOME OF THE PASS AREAS ALONG THE ID-WY BORDER. SO HAVE ISSUED
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR TON AND TUE IN THESE AREAS. SNOW
CLEARS UP TUE EVENING. QUITE A DISCREPANCY CONTINUES ON
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED...BELIEVE NAM IS TOO COLD...BUT HAVE NOT
SEEN BIASES OF LATE...SO WILL LEAVE ALONE FOR NOW. CURRENT
FORECAST APPEARS TO BE A COMPROMISE...WITH A LITTLE MORE NOD TO
THE GFS...WHICH IS WHAT I LIKELY WOULD HAVE DONE. WINDY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUE IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT...BUT SHOULD
STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE A
DIFFERENCE OF OPINION WITH THE FRI/SAT PERIOD. THE ECMWF DROPS AN
UPPER TROF INTO ID FRI NIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE DIVIDE AND
THE WY BORDER. PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE GFS HAD THIS FEATURE MOVING THRU
ON FRI...BUT THE 00Z RUN HAS DROPPED THE TROF COMPLETELY AND
MAINTAINS THE UPPER RIDGE AS THE DOMINANT FEATURE THRU THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE NE CORNER NEAR
THE DIVIDE FRI AND SAT...STAYING CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION. TEMPS
WILL BR ABOVE NORMAL THRU THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HEDGES
&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THIS EVE...BUT AN UPPER
TROF DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT WILL SPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE
REGION TOWARD TUE MORN. CIG/VIS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE BY TUE MORN.
HEDGES

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM MST
TUESDAY IDZ020-021.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM MST
TUESDAY IDZ019-023.

&&

$$






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