Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 250804
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
204 AM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRI NIGHT. EXITING TROUGH SLOW TO MOVE
OUT TONIGHT. RESULT IS THAT A SMALL PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL
CONTINUE THIS MORNING...BUT BY AFTERNOON POPS ARE APPROACHING
ZERO. FOR THE MOST PART...THAT IS WHERE THEY REMAIN FOR MOST OF
THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...A WEAK TROUGH TONIGHT AND THU LEAVES A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW. THUS...IT IS MAINLY THE AREAS ADJACENT TO LEMHI
COUNTY AND IN THE ISLAND PARK AREA SOUTHWARD TO AREAS EAST OF BEAR
LAKE. STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL ELIMINATE EVEN THIS SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THIS PERIOD WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES
AND NEAR ZERO PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION. THE WARMER AIR MASS
UNDER THE RIDGE WILL MEAN STRONG WARMING IN THE AVAILABLE
SUNSHINE. EXPECT TEMPERATURES IN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN TO MAKE IT
INTO THE 50S...THEN THE 60S ON THU...AND FINALLY SOME 70S ON FRI.
MAY SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS TODAY...BUT SHOULD STAY BELOW ANY
SIGNIFICANT LEVELS...POSSIBLY BREEZY (10 TO 20 MPH). MESSICK

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BIGGEST CHANGE IN THIS
MORNINGS MODEL RUNS IS THAT THE RIDGE DOESNT LOOK AS STRONG AS IT
HAS IN PREVIOUS RUNS. MODELS BRINGING IN A SPLIT FLOW SYSTEM FOR
THE WEEKEND. THE NORTHERN BRANCH IS MOVING MUCH FASTER THAN THE
SOUTHERN BRANCH. THIS NORTHERN BRANCH WILL ARRIVE
SATURDAY...PRODUCING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND BRINGING
COOLER TEMPS THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS FOR SATURDAY AND BEYOND. THE
SOUTHERN BRANCH ARRIVES SUNDAY AND AS PREVIOUS RUNS HAVE INDICATED
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE AREA BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO
CONTINUE TO MENTION SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. MONDAY LOOKS
DRIER WITH A BREAK IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS...BUT THE MODEL ENSEMBLES
QUICKLY LOSE CONTINUITY SO AM HESITANT TO REMOVE THE SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR MONDAY. STILL LOOKING AT ANOTHER SYSTEM ARRIVING ON
TUESDAY AND EXITING THE AREA WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING THAT THIS SYSTEM MAY ONLY AFFECT NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDER EACH
DAY AS MODELS SHOW SOME WEAK INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION. ONCE
AGAIN BIGGEST CHANGE TO THE FORECAST IS LOWER TEMPS BECAUSE THE
RIDGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG AS IT WAS IN EARLIER MODEL
RUNS.

VALLE

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY.
EXPECTING NO RAIN/SNOW NEAR THE TAF SITES TODAY AND ANY CEILINGS
WILL REMAIN VFR. EXPECT TO SEE SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 20KTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN TAF
SITES.

VALLE

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






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