Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 260250
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
850 PM MDT THU SEP 25 2014

.UPDATE...SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER MAGIC VALLEY POISED
TO SWING INTO REMAINDER OF EAST IDAHO NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG/BEHIND THE
FRONT EXTENDING INTO WESTERN IDAHO THIS EVENING. MODELS PUSH COLD
FRONT UP THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AND HOLD BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG LINE
FROM YELLOWSTONE PARK SOUTHWEST TOWARD JACKPOT BY EARLY MORNING.
MODELS DONT PROGRESS LINE OF CONVECTION AS FAR EAST AS THE
FRONT...HOLDING TRAJECTORY IN LINE WITH MORE SOUTHERLY 700-500MB
FLOW. HAVE NUDGED POPS UPWARD REMAINDER OF TONIGHT FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS...BUT PROGRESSION OF SURFACE FRONT SHOULD STOP
MOST PRECIP IN MAGIC VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE UPDATED WINDS AS
WELL IN RESPONSE TO CURRENT UPSTREAM SPEEDS/GUSTS BEHIND FRONT. DMH


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM MDT THU SEP 25 2014/

SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR
BREEZY TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A PACIFIC SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. EXPECT TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL TODAY WITH RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE FOR A FEW
AREAS. EXPECT ISOLATED CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS ACROSS OUR
WESTERN AREAS. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS OF AROUND 35 MPH IN AND AROUND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THAN
TODAY BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE AROUND FIVE DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. WYATT

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. LOOK FOR A
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE OVER THE WEEKEND. EXPECT A SLOW MOVING...WET
PACIFIC STORM TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW VERY GOOD PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...THOUGH MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT IN
PRECIPITATION TRACKS AND INTENSITY. IF MODELS STAY CONSISTENT WITH
THE OVERALL CURRENT PRECIPITATION TRACK...EXPECT SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION IN THE RANGE OF 0.50 TO 1.00 WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER
AMOUNTS. LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY WITH
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLDER AIR STARTS TO MOVE
IN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DROPPING SNOW LEVELS AROUND 950O FEET.
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY SO
EXPECT SOME HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW. MODELS SHOW BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING WITH A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGING IMPACTING THE
MONTANA DIVIDE AND THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS BRINGING LIGHT TO
MODERATE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES. LOOK
FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES THURSDAY MORNING IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
NEAR FREEZING IN THE VALLEYS PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE UPPER SNAKE
RIVER PLAIN. EXPECT ANOTHER SYSTEM BY LATE THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING EVEN COOLER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AND DROP SNOW
LEVELS TO AROUND 6500 TO 7000 FEET. WYATT

AVIATION...WILL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.   COULD SEE SOME
SHOWERS IN CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND HAVE VICINITY AT SUN.  WILL HAVE
MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON FRIDAY AND
WILL LIKELY BE INCLUDED IN TAFS AFTER 18Z FRIDAY.   EXPECT
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.  COULD SEE SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND.  WILL HAVE 15 TO 20 KNOT SUSTAINED
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AT BYI...PIH AND IDA.
GK

FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH THIS
EVENING MAINLY IN ZONES 425...427 AND 410.  A LARGE UPPER TROF WILL
PROGRESS EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EXPECT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TO BE INCREASED ON FRIDAY WITH WETTING RAINS LIKELY
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.   AFTER EXTREMELY WARM TEMPERATURES THE LAST
FEW DAYS EXPECT A MAJOR COOL DOWN TO COMMENCE FRIDAY WITH BELOW
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY SATURDAY.   AFTER A VERY DRY
PERIOD HUMIDITY WILL ALSO INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
GK

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








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