Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 090252
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
852 PM MDT TUE JUL 8 2014

.UPDATE...NAM PREVIOUS FEW DAYS HAS BEEN PAINTING CONVECTION
TRIGGERED ALONG EDGE OF CENTRAL MOUNTAINS EXTENDING INTO THE SNAKE
PLAIN. SINGLE SHORT LIVED CONVECTIVE CELL DEVELOPED JUST NORTH OF
THE DIVIDE THIS EVENING AND DRIFTED SOUTHEAST INTO EAST IDAHO
ALONG THE DIVIDE...THEN PROMPTLY DISSIPATED. THIS MAY BE A SIGN OF
THINGS TO COME FOR WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND AS NAM HAS BEEN THE MORE
AGGRESSIVE MODEL IN PAINTING AT LEAST SCATTERED IF NOT MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE MADE A FEW MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO POP/WX/QPF GRIDS FOR THIS EVENING TO ADJUST FOR
CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS ESPECIALLY ALONG DIVIDE. DMH


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 139 PM MDT TUE JUL 8 2014/

DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE INTER
MOUNTAIN WEST EXTENDING WELL INTO OREGON WHICH WILL OVERSPREAD IDAHO
WEDNESDAY AT THE SAME TIME THE LOW PRESSURE DISTURBANCE ENTERING
BRITISH COLUMBIA PASSES TO OUR NORTH. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
TRAIL SOUTH TO ABOUT CHALLIS IDAHO AND SWEEP THE UPPER SNAKE
HIGHLANDS LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE IN THAT AREA...AND MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHEAST IDAHO. MODEL SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO FAVOR AN INVERTED-V PROFILE AND GUSTY DOWN
DRAFTS...MOSTLY NEAR OR A LITTLE BELOW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM LEVELS.
THAT WHOLE LOBE OF MOISTURE SWINGS OVER INTO WYOMING BY MIDNIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA IN VERY SPOTTY SHOWER
ACTIVITY FOR THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...THE DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE GREAT
BASIN MAKES ANOTHER SURGE TOWARDS OREGON AND THEN IDAHO BY FRIDAY.
HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO WORK DOWNWARD...A BETTER SHOT AT
RAIN AND LIGHTNING THE PERSISTS INTO THE EVENING HOURS LONGER.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE COMES INLAND BY MONDAY...BUT THERE ARE SOME
PRETTY SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS OVER HOW MUCH DEEP
MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE GREAT BASIN. DO NOT QUITE BUY THE GFS BEING
SO DRY WITH WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE BIG LOW
PASSING THE GREAT LAKES SHOULD LET THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REBOUND
SOME OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND BRING SOME MONSOON MOISTURE NORTH
AGAIN AROUND TUESDAY. THAT FOLOWS SUITE WITH THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER GUIDANCE. RS

AVIATION...REST OF TODAY WILL BE HOT AND DRY ACROSS THE STATE.
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH...BUT WE SHOULD SEE
INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST IDAHO LATE TOMORROW MORNING.
MODELS HOLD PRECIP UNTIL AFTER NOON TOMORROW. VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS
IN SMOKE IS A POSSIBILITY AT KSUN AS THE NEARBY WILDFIRE CONTINUES.
TRENDS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED VIA WEBCAMS/OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  HINSBERGER

FIRE WEATHER...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF
TODAY. MONSOON MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SURGE INTO SOUTHEAST IDAHO
TOMORROW AROUND MID-DAY WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH PASSES JUST TO OUR
NORTH. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON
AND MAY PRODUCE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WITH LITTLE PRECIPITATION. THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL PASS TOMORROW EVENING LEAVING SOME DRIER WEATHER
FOR THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE POISED TO REACH IDAHO ON
FRIDAY. SLIGHT CHANCES OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN OVER
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HINSBERGER

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






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