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000
FXUS65 KPIH 071128
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
428 AM MST SAT DEC 7 2013

.UPDATE...UPON FURTHER INSPECTION OF TEMPS AND WINDS WE DECIDED TO
ISSUE A WIND CHILL WARNING FOR UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN FOR TONIGHT
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY AS THIS UPPER
LOW MOVES EAST...AND WITH A NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND IT TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN TO PLUNGE ONCE AGAIN. WIND CHILL VALUES OF -15 TO -25
ARE LIKELY IN THIS AREA. MANY OTHER AREAS IN SE ID WILL LIKELY
REACH WIND CHILL VALUES OF AT LEAST -10.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 AM MST SAT DEC 7 2013/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW POSITIONED OVER CENTRAL
OREGON EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A GOOD PUSH OF MOISTURE STREAMING
NORTH INTO IDAHO. AS THIS LOW MOVES EAST...SE ID WILL SEE SNOW
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WITH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ALREADY RECEIVING
SNOW. WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES THAT HAVE SET IN... SNOW RATIOS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 20 TO 1 MEANING WE WILL HAVE VERY LIGHT
FLUFFY SNOW. EXPECTING WINDS TO PICK UP WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH
IN THE EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY... LOWER SNAKE HIGHLANDS... SOUTH
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND CARIBOU HIGHLANDS SO MADE MENTION OF SOME
BLOWING SNOW TO GO WITH THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CURRENTLY IN
EFFECT. THE HRRR IS SHOWING THE BIGGEST PUSH OF SNOWFALL AFTER 11
AM TODAY WHICH IS PRETTY IN LINE WITH THE NAM. THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING... VALLEY SITES COULD SEE 1 TO 4 INCHES AND MOUNTAIN AREAS
COULD SEE 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH SOME HIGHEST PEAKS SEEING 9 INCHES OF
NEW SNOW. SNOWFALL WILL BEGIN TAPERING OFF SUNDAY MORNING. EP

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO MIDWEEK WHEN THE FLOW BECOMES
NORTHWESTERLY. THE EXTREME COLD WILL PERSIST INTO MIDWEEK. TEMPS
WILL WARM WHEN THE FLOW BEGINS TO TURN. SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WHICH COULD KICK OFF AN ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWER IN THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHLANDS FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEK. MODELS HAVE CHANGED DRASTICALLY WITH THE HANDLING OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM ARRIVING LATER IN THE WEEK. GENERALLY...THE MODELS HAVE
WEAKENED THIS SYSTEM SUBSTANTIALLY. HAVE LOWERED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES SOME GIVEN THE CHANGE...BUT STILL CONTINUING TO MENTION SOME
SNOW IN CASE THE MODELS FLIP FLOP. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO WARM INTO
LATE WEEK AND COULD BE CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

VALLE

AVIATION...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. REDUCED
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE A GOOD BET TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT.

VALLE

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING IDZ017-021.

WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM MST SUNDAY
IDZ020.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING IDZ022>025.

&&

$$