689
FXUS65 KPIH 101730
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
1130 AM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler temps, closer to normal through Friday.

- Breezy today.

- Warming trend over the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 132 AM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Low pressure will exit the region today. Upper level flow turns
northwest for the next couple days which will allow for cooler,
more normal temperatures. Winds look breezy today, with winds
approaching lake wind advisory levels this afternoon. NBM shows
a 50% chance of reaching levels today. However most of the
traditional rule of thumbs indicate that we`ll be just short of
reaching those levels. So, we`ll hold off on issuing a lake wind
this afternoon. Weather looks dry or mostly dry through
Thursday with the main storm track north of our region.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 132 AM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Under the increasing influence of high pressure this weekend
into early next week, temperatures will trend warmer with highs
back in the 80s/90s starting Saturday. Courtesy of that ridge of
high pressure overhead, conditions look to remain dry into
early next week. Ensemble model guidance supports a series of
shortwave troughs working up and over this ridge feature along
the Continental Divide for next week, supporting the potential
for some isolated shower and thunderstorm development in the
mountains during the afternoon and evening hours in that 10-20%
chance range. Given the bulk of moisture looks to stay east of
the Divide with these shortwaves, coverage here in southeast
Idaho will remain focused along the Montana Divide into the
Eastern Highlands as dry conditions prevail overall. Winds will
peak diurnally each afternoon for next week with gusts peaking
around 20-30 mph.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1130 AM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Dry conditions with mostly clear skies. Winds remain the main
concern today with sustained winds around 15kts and gusts 20-25kts
for the Snake Plain terminals BYI, PIH and IDA. Gusts approach 20kts
for SUN and DIJ. Winds remain maximized until about 02Z, then drop
off below 15kts for the overnight, turning light and variable for
most sites toward sunrise.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 132 AM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Following a departing cold front into Wyoming this morning with
isolated showers and thunderstorms, cooler and dry conditions
will return for Thursday and Friday as zonal flow prevails.
Winds will remain elevated again today, peaking this afternoon
around 10-25 mph with gusts to 20-40 mph. Due to a combination
of breezy winds and low RHs this afternoon in the teens/20s,
elevated weather conditions will exist. Winds will lessen for
Friday, peaking around 10-15 mph with gusts to 20-25 mph. Under
the increasing influence of high pressure this weekend into
early next week, temperatures will trend warmer with highs back
in the 80s/90s starting Saturday. Courtesy of that ridge of high
pressure overhead, conditions look to remain dry into early
next week. Ensemble model guidance supports a series of
shortwave troughs working up and over this ridge feature along
the Continental Divide for next week, supporting the potential
for some isolated shower and thunderstorm development in the
mountains during the afternoon and evening hours in that 10-20%
chance range. Given the bulk of moisture looks to stay east of
the Divide with these shortwaves, coverage here in southeast
Idaho will remain focused along the Montana Divide into the
Eastern Highlands as dry conditions prevail overall. Winds will
peak diurnally each afternoon for next week with gusts peaking
around 20-30 mph, which will need to be monitored for any
overlap of gusty winds and low RH given RHs each afternoon will
drop to the teens/20s.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...MacKay
AVIATION...DMH
FIRE WEATHER...MacKay