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000
FXUS65 KPIH 021044
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
344 AM MST SUN MAR 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. WE ARE IN BETWEEN BIGGER
STORM SYSTEMS TODAY ACROSS EASTERN IDAHO. WE SHOULD SEE OCCASIONAL
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW. SNOW LEVELS...OUTSIDE OF WHERE THE ARCTIC
AIRMASS PUSHED OVER THE DIVIDE...WILL HOVER AT 5000-6000FT. THE
ARCTIC AIRMASS FINALLY STOPPED PUSHING SOUTHWEST DOWN THE SNAKE
PLAIN...ENDING UP NORTHEAST OF A COLDWATER TO CRATERS LINE. IT
WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THIS AIR TO RETREAT TODAY BUT SHOULD DURING
THE DAY. OUR CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM ABOVE
FREEZING ALL THE WAY UP INTO FAR UPPER SNAKE PLAIN BUT REMAIN
AT/BELOW 32F ACROSS THE UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS. THIS IS A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST BECAUSE THE MODELS ARE LIKELY NOT HANDLING
THIS FEATURE WELL...AND ALTHOUGH WE WENT BELOW THE NUMBERS SHOWING
UP IN THE DATA IT MAY NOT BE LOW ENOUGH. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT WITH TRACE AMOUNTS IN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND POTENTIALLY AN
INCH OR TWO IN THE MOUNTAINS...PARTICULARLY THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN RANGES. LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT
WITH SHOWERS PASSING OVER THE PLAIN...BUT SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO
ANYTHING MORE THAN A LIGHT GLAZE. WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH LIKELY SPELL LOCALIZED BLOWING AND DRIFTING
WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN COLDER AND SNOW IS FLUFFY. FOR THIS
MORNING...WE WILL ALSO SEE SOME LOCALIZED DENSE FOG AS ANY BREAK
IN CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW FOR IT FORM RATHER QUICKLY.

OUR ATTENTION TURNS TO TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. RAIN AND SNOW RETURNS
IN EARNEST TONIGHT AS ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS
IDAHO. WITH THE PATTERN CONTINUING TO BE WEST FROM THE
PACIFIC...SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 5500-6500FT RANGE
WITH THE REALLY COLD AIR RETREATING EAST OF THE DIVIDE. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BREEZY SO WE ARE LOOKING SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW ESPECIALLY AT MID AND UPPER SLOPES. THE FAVORED AREAS WILL BE
THE WESTERN CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS. WE HAVE
HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST AMOUNTS FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY ARE LOWER CONFIDENCE AS THE MODELS HAVE
SUDDENLY TRIED TO CONFINE HIGH AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WE
WANT TO SEE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES. WE ARE LOOKING AT 5-13 INCHES
ACROSS THE WESTERN CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ABOVE 6500FT TONIGHT AND
MONDAY WITH SOME WIND...AND BECAUSE OF THAT WE ARE ISSUING A
WINTER STORM WARNING IN THOSE AREAS. ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS AT/ABOVE 6000FT...WE ARE LOOKING AT
5-10 INCHES WITH LIGHTER WINDS. WE WILL ISSUE A NEW WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THOSE AREAS TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS WELL. THE OTHER
MOUNTAIN RANGES WILL SEE GENERALLY 1-4 INCHES. FOR THE SNAKE
PLAIN...LIGHT RAINFALL IS FORECAST WITH SOME SHADOWING OCCURRING
ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN. THERE IS A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OF
MEASURABLE RAIN ACROSS THE MAGIC VALLEY AS THE TYPICAL BAND WE SEE
IN THIS PATTERN DEVELOPS THERE. ALTHOUGH WE HAVE LESS CONFIDENCE
ON TUESDAY...WE SHOULD SEE 2-5 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS WHEREVER
THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS SHOW UP WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE. EVERYONE
ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN STANDS TO SEE LIGHT RAIN AS THE MAIN STORM
FEATURE MOVES THROUGH.  KEYES

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. UPPER RIDGING
OVER THE PAC NW TUE NIGHT WILL FLATTEN AS A NEW STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW PAC MOISTURE TO BEGIN FLOWING
INTO THE REGION...INCREASING THE PRECIP CHANCES IN THE MTNS ON WED.
SW FLOW BRINGS IN MORE MOISTURE WED NIGHT AND THU...WITH PRECIP
EXPECTED ACROSS THE FCST AREA. AGAIN...BEST CHANCES IN THE MTNS.
TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL...SO SNOW LEVELS WILL BE HIGH. BROAD
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE PAC NW ON FRI...RESULTING IN THE FCST
AREA DRYING OUT BY FRI NIGHT. THE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THRU SUNDAY.
BY SUN NIGHT...SW FLOW RETURNS AND RAISES THE PRECIP CHANCES IN THE
CENTRAL MTNS. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL. HEDGES

&&

.AVIATION...SCT SHOWERS AND OCNL IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED THIS AFTN. ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIP TONIGHT WILL SEND CIGS BACK DOWN TO IFR. HEDGES

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM MST
MONDAY ABOVE 6000 FEET FOR IDZ019. THIS DOES NOT INCLUDE THE TETON
VALLEY.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM MST MONDAY
ABOVE 6500 FEET FOR IDZ018-031.

&&

$$