Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 220819
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
219 AM MDT FRI JUL 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday.
Strong cold front moving through eastern Idaho today and expect
breezy conditions with Red Flag Warnings in effect and a Lake Wind
Advisory for the American Falls Reservoir. The wind will be the
main feature today as moisture very limited and only have isolated
showers and thunderstorms in the eastern highlands. Do not expect
any measurable rainfall. Expect dry conditions with less wind
Saturday and Sunday with cooler temperatures expected. High
temperatures over the weekend should be right at seasonal normals.
GK

.LONG TERM...Monday through Friday.
After the drop to normal temperatures over the weekend expect a
warming trend next week with high temperatures expected to be back
in the 90s in valleys and 80s in mountains with dry conditions
expected to continue.
GK

&&

.AVIATION...Satellite imagery was showing a low pressure trough
lifting into Washington and numerical models drive it east along the
Canadian border tonight. A elevated band of moisture evident across
SE Idaho coupled with the lift associated with the advancing trough
may be enough to support isolated shower/thunderstorm activity
across mainly the ERN highlands this afternoon. The moisture layer
is fairly elevated so VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all
terminal sites although strong gusty winds may make for bumpy
conditions this afternoon and evening. Huston
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A low pressure trough lifting into WRN Washington
early this morning will progress east along the Canadian border
today and tonight with an associated surface cold front sweeping
east across SRN Idaho. Strong gusty winds and low humidity are
expected to prevail across the region today resulting in a Red Flag
Warning for the CNTRL Idaho mountains and Snake River Plain. At this
time wind gusts are expected to be marginal across the south-cntrl
highlands and thus we will headline that zone with breezy conditions
for now. Satellite imagery was also showing an elevated moisture
plume streaming across the region and numerical models are now
trying to produce at least some isolated thunderstorm activity
over the SE and ERN highlands this afternoon. A much weaker secondary
trough will shift ESE into NW Montana Saturday afternoon promoting
gusty afternoon winds across the CNTRL mountains and Snake River
Plain while remaining below Red Flag criteria. A mostly dry west
flow follows Sunday and Monday but beyond that point it appears that
the models are struggling with the timing, track and strength of
Pacific impulses moving east through the region and sub-tropical
moisture pooling across the SRN portion of the Great Basin.
Statistical guidance continues to show very warm daytime temps
continuing through next week after recovering from a short cool down
Saturday and Sunday. Huston
&&

.PIH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Red Flag Warning from noon today to 10 PM MDT this evening for
IDZ410-422-425-475-476.

Lake Wind Advisory from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening for
IDZ021.

&&

$$



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