Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 091931
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
131 PM MDT WED JUL 9 2014

.DISCUSSION...MONSOON MOISTURE MOVING OVER SOUTHEAST IDAHO TODAY.
THERE ARE TWO DISTURBANCES IN SATELLITE IMAGERY THAT SHOULD FOCUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. FIRST...THE EMBEDDED WAVE
IN OREGON AND WASHINGTON THAT WILL CROSS CENTRAL IDAHO THIS
AFTERNOON. A WEEK SURFACE COLD FRONT ALSO EXTENDS SOUTH FROM THE LOW
IN BRITISH COLUMBIA AND EXPECT IT TO BRUSH CHALLIS AND THE UPPER
SNAKE HIGHLANDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE SECOND FOCUS IS A WAVE JUST
SOUTH OF GREAT SALT LAKE MOVING NORTH TOWARDS THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND
CARIBOU HIGHLANDS. BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE IN THOSE
AREAS. INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL PROVIDE SOME DELAY IN SURFACE
HEATING AND ONSET OF STORMS. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO FAVOR AN
INVERTED-V PROFILE AND GUSTY DOWN DRAFTS...MOSTLY NEAR OR A LITTLE
BELOW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM LEVELS. THAT WHOLE LOBE OF MOISTURE
SWINGS OVER INTO WYOMING OVERNIGHT...LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA IN
VERY SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS FOR THURSDAY.
THE DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN MAKES ANOTHER SURGE THIS
DIRECTION FRIDAY AND SWINGS INTO MONTANA BY SATURDAY EVENING.
HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO WORK DOWNWARD...AND LIGHTNING
COULD PERSISTS LATER INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...A BIG LOW SETTLES IN NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AND THE FOUR
CORNERS HIGH RE ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THE RIDGE
MAY BLOCK MONSOON MOISTURE FROM REACHING IDAHO AS THE GFS MODEL
SUGGESTS. RS

&&

.AVIATION...WV/IR IMAGERY SHOWING SURGE OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO
THE REGION WITH UPPER TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH WA/OR THIS MORNING.
MODELS SHOW CONVECTION SPREADING INTO SOUTHEAST IDAHO AHEAD OF
TROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
NIGHT...THOUGH MAINLY AROUND THE ISLAND PARK AREA. WINDS WILL BE A
BIT STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY ON ACCOUNT OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BUT KSUN
MAY SEE OCCASIONAL SMOKE DRIFTING IN FROM THE NEARBY COLORADO GULCH
FIRE. HINSBERGER
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL SURGE INTO THE REGION TODAY.
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN IDAHO TODAY AND WILL LIKELY
TRIGGER ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
ERRATIC AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. SOME STORMS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE
NIGHT...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AND AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH.
STORMS WILL RE-DEVELOP TOMORROW...BUT SHOULD STAY CONFINED TO THE
EASTERN HIGHLANDS AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL IDAHO.
ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED AGAIN ON FRIDAY WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WEATHER LOOKS A LITTLE DRIER
THIS WEEKEND...BUT THE THREAT OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDER
REMAINS.  HINSBERGER
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$







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