Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID
FXUS65 KPIH 161048
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
348 AM MST Thu Feb 16 2017
.SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday night.
Short term is expected to be wet with valley rain and mountain
snow. The first system will start this morning. Above 6500 feet
expect 5 to 10 inches of snow for the Central Mountains where
Southwest upslope flow will aide precipitation. A Winter Weather
Advisory is in effect above 6500 feet for the Central mountains.
The Lost River/Pahsimeroi ranges, Upper Snake Highlands and the
Caribou highlands will see 2 to 5 inches with the areas along the
Northern Wyoming border seeing the most. Freezing rain is possible
this morning into early afternoon mainly for the Eastern Magic
Valley and Southern Blaine County and to an lesser extent the
Western Snake River plain. Models have backed off on rain below
6500 feet with .10 to .15 in the forecast for most areas. The
Northern Eastern Magic valley and the Caribou highlands will
likely see .15 to .30 inches of rain below 6000 to 6500 feet.
High pressure builds in Friday with lingering light precipitation
for the Central mountains and Eastern highlands early Friday.
High pressure is short lived as another system approaches from the
South late Friday. The main impacts from this storm will be on
the South facing slopes of the Central mountains where up to a
foot of snow may fall by Saturday night. The Upper Snake highlands
and Southern Lost River range may see 4 to 8 inches of snow...with
the Eastern and Southern highlands receiving 2 to 6 inches.
Valleys below 6000 to 6500 feet will likely receive .3 to .6
inches of rain.
With warmer temperatures, rain on snow and breezy Southerly
winds, low-lying flooding will likely start up again over the
weekend into next week for most areas below 6000 feet.
.LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday.
Long term is expected to be wet. A system will provide rain and
snow Sunday with snow levels in the 5500 to 6500 foot range. A
stronger system will return rain and snow Monday after perhaps a
break Sunday night with snow levels rising to 6500 to 7500 feet with
that system. Main impacts Sunday through Tuesday are heavy snow
mainly above 7000 feet with again flooding potential with rains
likely below 7000 feet once again. Both the GFS and European
models drive through a cold front late Tuesday so Wednesday and
Thursday look much colder with snow levels likely dropping to valley
floors and high temperatures back to seasonal normal after very mild
conditions Sunday through Tuesday.
.AVIATION...May see some rain move into SUN this afternoon with MVFR
conditions and rain and snow overnight at all sites with MVFR to IFR
conditions expected especially at SUN and DIJ. May be cold enough
for snow at DIJ with greatly reduced visibilities overnight. Expect
improved conditions on Friday with mainly VFR conditions expected.
Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST Friday for IDZ018-031.