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000
FXUS65 KPIH 021020
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
320 AM MST MON DEC 2 2013

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. STRONG WINTER STORM WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. STILL
SEEING A SIGNIFICANT PLUME OF MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE PACIFIC
AS THE UPPER LOW DROPS OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND. THIS SETUP SHOULD HIT
THE WESTWARD FACING SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN
HIGHLANDS WITH SOME HEAVY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. ADD TO THAT THE FACT
THAT 700MB WINDS WILL BE AROUND 50KTS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY AHEAD
OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD PASS THROUGH LATER THIS EVENING.
WINTER STORM HEADLINES LOOK PRETTY GOOD AND HAVE CONTINUED BLOWING
SNOW MENTION IN THE GRIDS. HAVE UPGRADED WIND WATCH TO A WARNING
DESPITE MOS GUIDANCE BEING AROUND MODERATE ADVISORY LEVEL. HI-RES
LOCAL WRF OUTPUT PUTS SOME 50KT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OVER THE INL
COMPLEX ALL THE WAY THROUGH CRATERS OF THE MOON. WE WILL ALSO SEE
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTEN SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE AREA AS THE
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THIS EVENING. A GLANCE AT NAEFS
STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES SHOWS A +4 AT 700MB OVER SOUTHEAST IDAHO
WITH RESPECT TO CLIMATOLOGY.

TOMORROW...COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION WITH
GUIDANCE DROPPING US INTO SINGLE DIGITS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS COOLING TREND IS INDICATED BY A -3 STANDARDIZED ANOMALY
FROM THE 12Z NAEFS ENSEMBLE...AND THIS DOES NOT EVEN TAKE INTO
ACCOUNT THE MUCH COLDER ECMWF GUIDANCE WHICH PROJECTS BELOW ZERO
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN...THOUGH WITHOUT SNOW COVER WE
MAY NOT DROP BELOW ZERO. WE COULD HOWEVER SEE WIND CHILLS NEAR OUR
ADVISORY  CRITERIA TUESDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HINSBERGER


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A SHARP HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
REMAINS NEAR 140W WITH VERY COLD AIR MOVING FROM NEAR THE ARCTIC
CIRCLE SOUTHWARD INTO IDAHO. MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THIS COLD NORTHERLY FLOW DROPPING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS IS AN OVERLAND
DISTURBANCE WITH LITTLE MOISTURE...PERHAPS AN INCH OF NEW SNOW IN
THE MOUNTAINS. BY SUNDAY MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER...THE GFS TRIES TO
UNDER CUT THE EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE WITH A LITTLE WAVE THAT COMES
INLAND ABOUT THE SOUTHERN IDAHO BORDER. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNING
WILL BE THE COLDEST IN THE LOWER VALLEYS AROUND ZERO. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE WIND CHILL WARNINGS ON THOSE MORNINGS. RS
&&

.AVIATION...AT 02/10Z A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED IN THE NORTH END OF
THE PANHANDLE AND WILL BE NEAR A TWIN FALLS TO DUBOIS LINE BY 03/00Z
AND PASSING KIDA...KBYI AND KPIH 03-04Z. VERY STRONG WINDS IN THE
SNAKE PLAIN TODAY...STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED BETWEEN 18Z-04Z FROM
THE WEST AT 35 TO 50 MPH WITH POTENTIAL GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH...A
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED. SNOW LEVELS IN THE SNAKE PLAIN 5000-5500
FEET MSL...DROPPING RAPIDLY TO THE SURFACE BEHIND THE FRONT. MVFR
CEILINGS EXPECTED UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE THEN CLOUDS BECOMING
SCATTERED. RS
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 11 PM MST THIS EVENING
IDZ017-020-021.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MST TUESDAY ABOVE 6000 FEET FOR
THE IDZ019-023.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT ABOVE 6000 FEET
FOR THE IDZ031.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT IDZ018.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT ABOVE 6000
FEET FOR THE IDZ032.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MST TUESDAY ABOVE 6000 FEET
FOR THE IDZ025.

&&

$$