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000
FXUS65 KPIH 071000
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
300 AM MST FRI MAR 7 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RADAR IS PRETTY QUIET
THIS MORNING AS THE LAST SNOW SHOWERS TAPERED OFF OVERNIGHT. A FLOOD
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS NEAR THE
BIG AND LITTLE WOOD RIVER REGION...EAST FORK OF THE BIG WOOD
RIVER...AND WARM SPRINGS AND TRAIL CREEKS NEAR KETCHUM. THERE IS
CONTINUING CONCERN FOR RAPID MELTING WITH A DELAYED REACTION IN THE
DOWNSTREAM AREAS. A SLIGHT CHANCE REMAINS FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MID
DAY TODAY IN THE MOUNTAIN AREAS BUT THINGS WILL DRY OUT THIS
EVENING. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SETS IN FOR SATURDAY BRINGING CLEARER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS. NEXT SYSTEM STILL POISED TO APPROACH THE COAST ON
SUNDAY WHICH WILL SPREAD MOISTURE INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BY MID
DAY. SNOW LEVELS AT THIS TIME LOOK TO BE BETWEEN 6500 FEET AND 7000
FEET. HIGH ELEVATION UPSLOPE REGIONS WILL BE FAVORED FOR SNOW
ACCUMULATION OF UP TO 3 INCHES. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. EP

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE HAS BEEN SOME
IMPROVEMENT IN THE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF BUT DETAILS
STILL REMAIN FUZZY BETWEEN THE TWO. PROGRESSIVE WET TROUGH STILL ON
TARGET FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ECMWF STILL QUICKER IN
SWINGING THE TROUGH OUT TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH GFS
HOLDING ON TO THE TROUGH OVER IDAHO SLIGHTLY LONGER AS THE WAVE
DEEPENS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/GREAT BASIN. BOTH MODELS TILT A RIDGE
AXIS OVER EAST IDAHO WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ECMWF
SLIGHTLY MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH A SHORTWAVE DRAGGING ACROSS THE
CANADIAN BORDER THURSDAY...ENOUGH TO FLATTEN RIDGE SLIGHTLY OVER
EAST IDAHO AND POTENTIALLY INTRODUCE PRECIP ALONG/NORTH OF THE
DIVIDE. KEPT POPS DRY THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. GFS SHOWING A
PROGRESSIVE CUT OFF LOW WHICH UNDERCUTS THE RIDGE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
DIVES SOUTH INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. ECMWF ALSO INTRODUCES A
TROUGH FRIDAY BUT ITS MORE AMPLIFIED STRETCHING ALONG THE ENTIRE BC
CANADA AND PACNW COASTAL STATES. AS WITH PREVIOUS SHIFTS...TRENDED
TOWARD A GUIDANCE BLEND WITH A NUDGE TOWARD CLIMO IN THE LATTER
PERIODS. DMH

&&

.AVIATION...UPPER WAVE CONTINUING TO PUSH EAST TODAY CLEARING SKIES
OVER THE SNAKE PLAIN HAS ALLOWED A BAND OF STRATUS TO FORM BUT THIS
SHOULD BREAK UP BY MID MORNING. THE CLEARING COMBINED WITH A BIT OF
RESIDUAL MOISTURE COULD ALLOW LIGHT CONVECTIVE SHOWERS TO FORM
MAINLY HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PINPOINT IN
THE TERMINALS SO WILL LEAVE DRY AT THIS TIME. CLEARING EXPECTED AT
ALL LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT WITH NO STRATUS CONCERNS AT THIS TIME. DMH

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON IDZ031.

&&

$$