Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 102016
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
216 PM MDT THU APR 10 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW THE
DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. SHORTWAVE FEATURE HAS
MOVED THROUGH IDAHO INTO WYOMING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CLEARNING
SKIES AND BROAD SURFACE LOW NEAR DIVIDE HAS ALLOWED WINDS TO GUST
INTO 30-35MPH RANGE THROUGH EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND LOWER SNAKE
PLAIN. DO NOT SEE ANY EVIDENCE OF BLOWING DUST ON LATEST WEB CAM
IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON BUT STILL PLENTY OF TIME FOR POCKETS TO
DEVELOP. THUS WILL LET HEADLINE CONTINUE. DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. WINDS LESS BREEZY AS WELL. WARM TEMPS MAY
HELP ADDITIONAL SNOWPACK RELEASE IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN HIGHLANDS
WHERE RECENT WARM TEMPS HAVE CAUSED MINOR RUNOFF ISSUES. WILL HOLD
OFF ON HEADLINE FOR NOW BUT MAY NECESSITATE ADDITIONAL LOOK
DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF WARMING DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

STRONGER SHORTWAVE ARRIVES FOR SATURDAY WITH UNSTABLE AIRMASS
MAINLY EASTERN HIGHLANDS. STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF
SHORTWAVE AXIS AND SURFACE COLD FRONT LATE IN THE DAY. NAM
GUIDANCE PUSHING WELL INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA AND GFS GUIDANCE AT
LOWER THRESHOLDS. SATURDAY COULD BE NEXT CHANCE AT SEEING ANOTHER
THREAT FOR BLOWING DUST ESPECIALLY IN FAVORED INTERSTATE 15 AREA
NORTH OF IDAHO FALLS. TEMPS NOT QUITE AS WARM WITH COLD FRONT
PASSAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM THREAT CONTINUES INTO THE EVENING WITH SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT AS MAIN TROUGH AXIS DEEPENS OVER EAST IDAHO AND SURFACE
LOW MOVES TO SOUTHWEST WYOMING.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. EXPECT AN EXITING SYSTEM
SUNDAY BRINGING ELEVATED WINDS AND PRECIPITATION ALONG THE UPPER
SNAKE...EASTERN AND SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS. BOTH MODELS BRING IN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING ON MONDAY WITH DRIER CONDITIONS. FROM TUESDAY ON...THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN DISAGREEMENT. LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
THE GFS MODEL BRINGS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH VERY GOOD PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BRING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY. THE ECMWF MODEL
BRINGS LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS MAINLY THE UPPER CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS AND THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF MODEL THEN REMAINS RELATIVELY DRY
BEFORE BRINGING A VERY MOIST SYSTEM THROUGH ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY
DROPPING TO NEAR NORMAL BY THURSDAY. WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES MONDAY
AND GOOD RAIN CHANCE ON SNOW FROM TUESDAY ON...LOOK FOR INCREASED
CHANCES OF LOW LYING AREAS AND STREAMS TO EXPERIENCE FLOODING. THIS
INCREASED FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL MAINLY BE ALONG THE UPPER SNAKE
HIGHLANDS AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS STARTING EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
FLOODING COULD PARTICULARLY BECOMING A PROBLEM LATER IN THE PERIOD
IF THE GFS PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS HOLD TRUE.  WYATT


&&

.AVIATION...LOOK FOR BREEZY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT AREAS OF BLOWING DUST ACROSS THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AND
EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY SLIGHTLY REDUCING VISIBILITY. EXPECT ALL TAF
SITES TO KEEP VFR VIS THIS AFTERNOON. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. EXPECT MODERATE WINDS LIKELY
BRINGING BLOWING DUST PROBLEMS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND TO AN
LESSER EXTENT ON SUNDAY. WYATT


&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING IDZ017-021.

BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING IDZ020.

&&

$$







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