Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 141936

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
136 PM MDT FRI OCT 14 2016

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Monday. Rain continues across much
of the fcst area this aftn. The exception is the Snake River
Plain where strong south winds are drying out the area due to
downslope flow. Strong south to southwinds are expected to
diminish somewhat by evening...but windy conditions are likely to
continue thru the weekend as a strong storm system dominates the
Pac NW. Snow levels remain high...with central mtn webcams showing
rain as high as 9000 ft. Rain will continue thru the eve...with
a decrease in coverage overnight and Saturday as the first wave of
the storm system moves thru. Another wave is ejected thru the
region Sat night and will provide another round of precip across
the area. The heaviest amounts will be in the central mtns again.
Snow levels are expected to remain high. Another wave moves thru
on Mon...but this time snow levels look to be down around 7500 ft.

.LONG TERM...Mon night through next Fri night. The first 24 hours is
the continuance of the winter storm from the near term forecast.
There is a slight let-up Mon night, but another trough coming
through Tue. Temperatures remain cold with snow level lowering to
5500 ft elevation in the northwest corner of the forecast area.
Precipitation amounts really taper off Tue night and by Wed an upper
level ridge with its axis to the west dominates the weather pattern
to the end of the period. Thus expect warming and drying with light
wind. The northerly air flow does keep colder air flowing into the
Gem State, and compared to yesterday the temperatures are quite a
bit cooler...mainly in the 50s. This is a sharp departure from last
24 hours of thinking, and will hold off on putting in colder
temperatures at this time. Have left most of Wed onward alone.


.AVIATION...The effect of the incoming storm on CIGs continues to be
pushed 15/00z or so. Have also eliminated the KSUN
closure due to CIG as well. The 12Z NAM is much drier than the
previous 06Z guidance...and most locations have been adjusted to
have only a brief time tonight below good VFR. The other factor is
the wind, but most of it is aligned with runways; the lone exception
is KSUN with a fair cross wind. The rain and fog in Teton Valley
later tonight should severly impair KDIJ due to VSBY, approaching
minimum criteria.


.PIH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Wind Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for IDZ020-021.


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