Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 210924
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
324 AM MDT THU JUL 21 2016

.SHORT TERM...Today and Friday. Hot...dry and breezy conditions
will persist today as we remain in Southwest flow ahead of a Upper
Level Low and associated dry cold front off the Pacific coast. May
see isolated showers and thunderstorms across Eastern Lemhi County
and Western Wyoming this afternoon into early evening. Winds will
decrease today 5 to 10 mph over yesterday but remain breezy
particularly in the mountains. Friday look for moderate to strong
winds particularly over our Northern and Central areas as a dry
cold front passes through the area. The Nam12 model is showing
isolated afternoon thunderstorms along the Wyoming border Friday.
Will likely see wind gusts near 30 mph in the Central Mountains
and near 40 mph for the Upper Snake river plain Friday. Expect
temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above normal today. Today will
likely be the warmest day of the year so far with temperatures in
the mid to upper 90s across the Snake river plain and 80s in the
mountains. Temperatures will then drop to near normal on Friday.
Wyatt

.LONG TERM...Saturday through next Thursday. Weak high pressure
ridging builds in Saturday before a very weak trough moves through
Sunday with little impact...perhaps just a slight increase in
winds. Monday into Wednesday expect dry Westerly flow before
another system bringing moderate winds moves through the area on
Wednesday night into Thursday. Temperatures will be near normal
on Saturday before gradually warming back up through the period
becoming 4 to 8 degrees above normal by Tuesday and Wednesday.
Wyatt

&&

.AVIATION...A dry SW flow aloft will continue across the region with
VFR conditions today. Huston

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A dry SW flow aloft will continue across the region
today driving Haines indices up into the moderate to high category.
The NAM model was hinting at the potential for isolated
thunderstorms popping up over ERN Lemhi County and WRN Wyoming late
this afternoon and evening. The lack of moisture will likely play a
limiting factor in any convective development today. A low pressure
trough positioned off the NW coast will sweep inland tonight and
then east along the Canadian border Friday with an associated dry
surface cold front shifting through the region Friday afternoon.
Strong gusty winds and low humidity will accompany the front across
the region Friday afternoon and continue into the evening hours
prompting the issuance of a Fire Weather Watch for the CNTRL
mountains and Snake River Plain. A weak secondary trough spills into
Washington Saturday and then works east Sunday as it continues to
fill. For now, there appears to be little impact from wind or
moisture associated with this system. A dry and modest west flow
generally dominates through Wednesday as the next weak Pacific
trough works east into the region Wednesday afternoon potentially
providing the next opportunity for a wind event. Sub-tropical
moisture begins to work north into Nevada by weeks end for a
possible moisture source for isolated thunderstorm activity next
weekend. Until then, we will continue to bake the fuels as daytime
temps run above normal. Huston

&&

.PIH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
for IDZ410-422-425-475-476.

&&

$$


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