Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
000
FXUS65 KPIH 282017
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
217 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
STILL CONTRIBUTING TO EXTREME TEMPS WITH RECORDS ALREADY IN
JEOPARDY EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WORKING AROUND THE HIGH
CREEPING INTO SOUTHEAST IDAHO PER SAT IMAGERY AND FIRST SIGNS OF
CONVECTION UNDERWAY AS WELL. HAVE NUDGED POPS UPWARDS PER RADAR
TRENDS AND WITH EXPECTATION OF STORMS MAINTAINING CONTINUITY AS
THEY WORK INTO THE SNAKE PLAIN OFF THE CENTRAL MTS. COASTAL LOW
EJECTING NORTHEAST THROUGH PACNW SWINGS ACROSS REGION MONDAY. SOME
MITIGATION OF RECORD TEMPS POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL MTNS AS ASSOCIATED
SFC BOUNDARY SWINGS THROUGH. BEST CONVECTION CHANCES ACROSS MAINLY
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF REGION WITH THIS FEATURE AND STILL QUITE WARM
ELSEWHERE. WEST FLOW ALOFT BY TUESDAY WITH RIDGE AND THERMAL AXIS
PUSHED SOUTH SO SLIGHTLY COOLER MOST AREAS. DMH

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGES
OVERALL TO EXTENDED RANGE. DRY AND STILL QUITE WARM HEADING INTO
MIDWEEK AS CENTER OF HIGH TRIES TO REBOUND AND BEGIN RETROGRADING
WEST. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS PERSISTENCE WITH THE RIDGE
STRENGTHENING OVER THE WESTERN STATES HEADED INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF TRY TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT ON
SATURDAY WITH SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF BC CANADA. GFS MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND COOLER TEMPS PER
GUIDANCE SATURDAY/SUNDAY. GIVEN STRENGTH OF RIDGE AND MODEL TREND
IN DELAYING TIMING...OPTED TO MAINTAIN A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND
CONSENSUS...WHICH KEEPS EAST IDAHO DRY AND WARM. DMH


&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE TODAY. AN
INCOMING LOW OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST IS BRINGING SUB-
TROPICAL  MOISTURE INTO AND AROUND THE RIDGE. MOST OF THE MOISTURE
IS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. EXPECT VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS
FOR KSUN. MOISTURE IS ALSO MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS OUR EXTREME EASTERN
AND WESTERN BORDERS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR VICINITY
THUNDERSTORMS FOR KIDA AND KBYI LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING. HAVE LEFT THEM OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW AS IT WILL TAKE
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO TRIGGER THEM. WYATT


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER OUR AREA. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA IS MOVING
MOISTURE INTO AND AROUND THIS RIDGING. EXPECT AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING ISOLATED...MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FOR THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...THE MONTANA DIVIDE AND TO AN LESSER EXTENT WESTERN
CASSIA COUNTY TODAY. THE LOW MOVES OVER NORTHERN IDAHO LATE TOMORROW
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT BREEZY WINDS AND AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. ZONAL FLOW SETS UP LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH A VERY WEAK AND MOSTLY DRY WAVE MOVING OVER NORTHERN
IDAHO WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT BREEZY WINDS WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY AS DRY NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP. THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK IN BRINGING
MOSTLY DRY AND VERY HOT CONDITIONS. SATURDAY EXPECT MOSTLY MOUNTAIN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. WYATT


&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.