Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
000
FXUS65 KPIH 261953
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
153 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY WAS
SHOWING A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS ROTATING NE ACROSS THE SE HIGHLANDS
ASSOCIATED WITH A SUB-TROPICAL WAVE LIFTING NE THROUGH THE REGION.
THE SHOWERS HAVE LARGELY REMAINING EAST OF THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN.
THE LATEST MODELS SUGGEST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG THE NW PERIPHERY
OF THE MOISTURE PLUME REMAINING LARGELY SOUTH AND EAST OF CHALLIS.
THE SUB-TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL SHEAR EAST LATE
TONIGHT LEAVING A MOIST AND WEAKLY UNSTABLE SW FLOW IN ITS WAKE
ACROSS SE IDAHO. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG A MACKAY TO MONIDA PASS LINE
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ONCE AGAIN. FOR
FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ENERGY EMBEDDED IN A
TROUGH POSITIONED OFF THE NW COAST WILL EJECT NE THROUGH WASHINGTON
AND OREGON FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY WITH A POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED
WINDS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY. ONCE AGAIN...THE MODELS HAVE FAILED TO
MAINTAIN RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THUS HAVE
PRODUCED A SITUATION WHERE UNCERTAINTY REIGNS SUPREME. FOR NOW WE
WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN SELECT PERIODS. HUSTON
&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL PERSIST
INTO THIS EVENING. WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE
OF SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. RIGHT NOW...WE MAY SEE ONLY
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER OVER EASTERN
AREAS AND ELSEWHERE DUE TO BEING FARTHER AWAY FROM THE SYSTEM AS IT
MOVES OVERHEAD. IT WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS EVEN
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM AREAS. VFR WEATHER IS EXPECTED ALTHOUGH WITH
HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS WE COULD DIP TO MVFR BRIEFLY. ALL TAF SITES
WILL SEE AT LEAST VCSH IF NOT -SHRA VCTS STARTING AFTER 12Z
TOMORROW. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT CELLS COULD DEVELOP PRIOR TO THAT AT
KPIH AND KBYI. KEYES
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN SHOWER COVERAGE
TOMORROW AS A STORM MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...WE ARE
CURRENTLY LOOKING AT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER OUT AHEAD OF THAT SYSTEM. THE REST OF THE AREA IS ALSO
EXPECTING ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE A RISK WITH
STRONGER CELLS THAT DEVELOP. ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FIRE
AREAS...AMOUNTS COULD EXCEED 0.20 INCHES ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN GET
MORE THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK AS MOISTURE KEEPS SURGING NORTHEAST. ISOLATED COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED ALTHOUGH THURSDAY PRESENTS A QUANDARY OF SORTS. MOST OF THE
DATA SUGGESTS ISOLATED COVERAGE OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...ALTHOUGH THE NAM PRESENTS MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT.
IF THIS TREND CONTINUES ESPECIALLY IN THE OTHER MODEL FORECASTS...WE
MAY END UP WITH RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. FOR
NOW...WE ARE STILL GOING WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY.  AFTER
FRIDAY...THERE IS STILL A HUGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN TERMS OF
WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE BIG STORM OUT TO OUR WEST.  KEYES
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.