Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 111929
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
129 PM MDT THU SEP 11 2014

.DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT WELL THROUGH FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
AND EAST IDAHO UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF COLD NORTHERLY FLOW.
PRESSURE GRADIENT SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR
CHOP ON AMERICAN FALLS RESERVIOR BUT BELOW THRESHOLDS FOR BROAD
WIND ADVISORY THROUGH THE ARCO DESERT. TONIGHTS TEMPS LIKELY
COLDEST SO FAR THIS SEASON AND FOR THE WEEK. SOME QUESTION
REGARDING THE AMOUNT OF WIND EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. HAVE KEPT WINDS
ABOVE GUIDANCE WHICH COULD KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY LOWER AND THUS
DROPPED OVERNIGHT MINS SLIGHTLY TO STAY WITHIN MIDDLE OF GUIDANCE.
RESULT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN FREEZE HEADLINES FOR SNAKE
PLAIN ZONES. LOWER SNAKE PLAIN MIGHT STRADDLE A HARD FREEZE BUT
ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY OVER PORTIONS OF THAT ZONE TO KEEP HEADLINE A
NORMAL FREEZE. WIND MIGHT LIMIT POTENTIAL FROST FOR EASTERN MAGIC
VALLEY BUT WILL LEAVE HEADLINE IN PLACE THERE AS WELL.

NORTHWEST FLOW SLOWLY GIVES WAY TO AMPLIFYING RIDGE FRIDAY INTO
MONDAY. TEMPS WILL WARM BACK INTO NORMAL RANGES AND SHOULD BE NEAR
OR ABOVE FREEZING FOR ALL SNAKE PLAIN ZONES. DEPENDING ON FINAL
MIN TEMPS TONIGHT MAY NEED ANOTHER FROST/FREEZE HEADLINE FOR UPPER
SNAKE PLAIN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS. GREATEST AMPLIFICATION OF RIDGE
TAKES PLACE ON TUESDAY. GFS/ECMWF BOTH SLIDE WEAK FEATURE
NORTHEAST ALONG COAST INTO RIDGE WITH LITTLE MOISTURE/DYNAMICS
MAKING IT INTO EAST IDAHO. MUCH STRONGER TROUGH APPROACHES PACIFIC
COAST LATE WEDNESDAY. GFS MORE AGGRESSIVE ON MOISTURE INTRUSION
NORTH INTO IDAHO WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WILL KEEP POPS
TRENDED TOWARD CLIMO LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...OTHERWISE DRY. DMH


&&

.AVIATION...BREEZY NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
REALLY WONT SUBSIDE UNTIL TOMORROW MORNING. THIS WILL MAINLY
AFFECT KIDA/KPIH/KBYI DURING THE PERIOD. WHAT CLOUDS OUT THERE
THIS AFTERNOON WILL GO AWAY BY TONIGHT. KEYES


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY WEATHER WILL BE WITH US INTO NEXT WEEK. WHAT
CLOUDS AND FEW SHOWERS THAT ARE OUT THERE THIS AFTERNOON WILL
QUICKLY DISSIPATE BY TONIGHT. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
RISE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. WE WILL LIKELY
HAVE INVERSION CONDITIONS SETTING UP AT NIGHT...SO EXPECT MID AND
UPPER SLOPES TO BE DRIER IN THIS PATTERN. KEYES


&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING IDZ021.

FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM MDT FRIDAY IDZ021.

HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM MDT FRIDAY IDZ020.

FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM MDT FRIDAY IDZ017.

&&

$$







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