Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 262018
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
218 PM MDT TUE APR 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING IN THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...EASTERN HIGHLANDS AND THE SNAKE PLAIN. THE LOW OVER
WYOMING WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST AND A NEW DISTURBANCE IS
APPROACHING THE OREGON COAST. SO FAR WE HAVE REMAINED COOL ENOUGH
THAT NO THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AND THINKING IS IT WILL
REMAIN THAT WAY TONIGHT. THE SHOWERS THAT ARE AROUND MAY PRODUCE 1
TO 2 INCHES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...UP TO AN INCH IN THE EASTERN
HIGHLANDS. THIS NEXT DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE OREGON
COAST WEDNESDAY AND DIVE SHARPLY INTO NEVADA AND SOUTH UTAH
SIMILAR TO THE LAST DISTURBANCE. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THIS
DISTURBANCE TRACKS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THOUGH AND LIMITING THE
WRAP AROUND SHOWERS TO VERY NEAR THE IDAHO AND UTAH BORDER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS
MINIMAL CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THIS AREA...PERHAPS OVER DONE IN THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. KEPT THE DAYTIME HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
COOLER THAN GUIDANCE FOR THE SNAKE PLAIN OWING TO CLOUD COVER AND
SOME NORTHERLY WINDS. THERE WILL BE A NEW DISTURBANCE CROSSING
WASHINGTON STATE TO IDAHO FRIDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
SOME AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE
FAVORING DROPPING IT QUICKLY SOUTH TO NEVADA AS WELL. THAT WOULD
HOLD TEMPERATURES PRETTY FLAT FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS MORE. RS

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPPING OVER THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BRINGING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MOUNTAIN SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED VALLEY SHOWERS. LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW IS EXPECTED AS
WELL. SUNDAY AND TO AN LESSER EXTENT MONDAY LOOK FOR LINGERING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION OVER OUR EASTERN AREAS AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST. BOTH MODELS ARE THEN SHOWING THE LOW TO RETROGRADE
BRINGING PRECIPITATION BACK OVER OUR AREA BY LATE TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
SATURDAY BEFORE RISING TO NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
TUESDAY. WYATT

&&

.AVIATION...RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL SET OFF MOSTLY
VICINITY SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREAS. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN
VFR THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. TAF SITES MAY GO MVFR BRIEFLY
WITH AN UNLIKELY STRONG SHOWER ON STATION. MODELS ARE SHOWING RAIN
SHOWERS FOR KSUN LATE THIS EVENING INTO TOMORROW MORNING BRINGING
MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CIGS. MODELS ARE HINTING THAT MVFR CIGS MAY
SET UP FOR KPIH AND KBYI AND TO AN LESSER EXTENT FOR KIDA TOMORROW
MORNING. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE...KIDA MAY SEE SOME BRIEF FOG IF THERE
IS ANY CLEARING OVERNIGHT. EXPECT AFTERNOON SHOWERS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON FOR ALL TAF SITES LIKELY BRINGING MVFR/IFR CIGS. WYATT

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$


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