Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 150844
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
244 AM MDT WED OCT 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRI NIGHT. TODAYS FRONT IS RIGHT ON
TIME ON SATELLITE...AN MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM CONTINUES TO BE THE
WIND SPEEDS. ALTHOUGH NAM MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FORECAST WELL
BELOW ADVISORY STRENGTH WIND...THE LOCAL WIND STUDY...USING NAM
DATA...CONTINUES TO INDICATE A WIND ADVISORY TO BE NECESSARY. THE
ONLY INGREDIENT TO THE SCHEME THAT IS WEAK IS THE 700MB WIND
SPEED...WITH EVERYTHING ELSE RATHER STRONG...8.8MB GRADIENT FROM
ONE END OF SOUTHERN IDAHO TO THE OTHER...66KT 500MB
WIND...MODERATE TO STRONG COLD ADVECTION. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED
BY THE GFS WHICH HAS KEPT ITS STRONG WIND FORECAST FOR SEVERAL
DAYS. THUS HAVE CONTINUED THE WIND ADVISORY. THE AFTERNOON PASSAGE
MEANS THAT THE COLD AIR MASS WILL NOT BE IN PLACE UNTIL TONIGHT
AND SO THE BIG COOL-DOWN WILL OCCUR BETWEEN TODAY AND THU. WITH
MUCH CLEARER SKIES AND A QUICK LET-DOWN TO THE WIND...STRONG
WARMING BY FRIDAY...THOUGH NOT TO TODAYS WARMTH. MESSICK

.LONG TERM...SAT THROUGH TUE NIGHT. GFS AND ECMWF...AFTER A COUPLE
OF DAYS OF LITTLE CHANGE TO THEIR OWN SOLUTIONS...ARE NOW COMING
TOGETHER WITH THE GFS MUCH DRIER AND THE ECMWF NOT QUITE AS DRY
AND AS WARM AS PREVIOUS RUNS. SO HAVE CLEARED UP THE SKIES AND
CONTINUED THE RATHER LOW POPS DURING THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES STAY
ABOVE NORMAL FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS...SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR LOWS.
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION OR WIND EVIDENT. MESSICK

&&

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
A STRAY SHOWER IS POSSIBLE NEAR KSUN. OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS FOR
THE OTHER TAF SITES. EXPECT GUSTY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE WITH GUSTS TO
40KTS POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS.

VALLE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON FOR MANY AREAS...WITH GUSTS OF
30 TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. EXPECT DRIER WEATHER AND LIGHTER WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.

VALLE

&&.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING
IDZ017-020-021.

&&

$$







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