Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32
000
FXUS65 KPIH 150901
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
301 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
EXPECT VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MOVING OVER IDAHO. FLOW WILL TURN MORE SOUTHERLY
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST WITH THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT ALLOWING MORE MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. WITH THE VERY
WARM CONDITIONS AND INSTABILITY BEGAN INTRODUCING SOME
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
ISOLATED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE
SHORT TERM THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
GK

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
EXPECT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT ALL OF
SOUTHEAST IDAHO ON THURSDAY AS STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES KEEPING MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. THE TREND IN THE
EUROPEAN AND GFS MODELS IS FOR IT TO BE MAINLY DRY SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH THE GFS REBUILDING A VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
EUROPEAN BRINGS IN A MUCH STRONGER TROF NEXT MONDAY WITH
PRECIPITATION. FOR NOW WENT WITH THE DRY SOLUTION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY AFTER THE THURSDAY SYSTEM MOVES EAST. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
TO COOL OFF QUITE A BIT THURSDAY CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES BUT
STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.
GK

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST IDAHO
TODAY...ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES.
TUESDAY A MINOR DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH OREGON AND CENTRAL IDAHO
WILL BRING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS AROUND KSUN.
RS
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS IN STABLE AIR MASS TODAY
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PASSES OVERHEAD. INCREASED SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW BEGINS TUESDAY WITH A MINOR DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH OREGON
AND CENTRAL IDAHO. THAT DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS FROM SUN VALLEY TO SALMON.
ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY WILL COVER A MORE
GENERAL AREA FROM STANLEY TO THE WYOMING STATE LINE. AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL ADVANCE INLAND THURSDAY EVENING WHICH WILL ALLOW MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE TROUGH WILL TAP MOISTURE FROM REMNANTS
OF HURRICANE ODILE. RS

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.