Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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000
FXUS65 KPIH 141035
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
335 AM MST SUN DEC 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
BRINGING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF EAST
IDAHO THIS MORNING. UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG BENCHES FROM IDAHO FALLS
TO POCATELLO ARE FAVORED THIS MORNING WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW
POSSIBLE. THIS WILL CREATE SLICK ROAD CONDITIONS ALONG I-15 THOUGH
LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF
SOUTHEAST IDAHO THIS MORNING. EXPECT LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
OVER THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS THIS AFTERNOON AND TO AN LESSER EXTENT
EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL MOVES EAST OF OUR AREA. A
MODEST HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA MONDAY BRINGING
DRY CONDITIONS. TUESDAY A PACIFIC TROF STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA BRINGING VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES
THAT ARE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER TROF OVER THE WEST ON WED. THEY
DIFFER IN THE DETAILS. THE ECMWF SUGGESTS A MORE VIGOROUS NORTHERN
STREAM TROF OVER THE PAC N...WHILE THE GFS PUTS THE STRENGTH WITH
THE SOUTHERN STREAM NEAR THE MEX BORDER. BOTH SOLUTIONS ARE WEAK ON
PRECIP...SO WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT FCST OF LIGHT SNOW ON WED.
COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY IN THE VALLEYS...AND A LITTLE HIGHER IN THE
MTNS. BOTH MODELS AGREE ON UPPER RIDGING ON THU...WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS THU NIGHT AND FRI. ANOTHER UPPER TROF MOVES INTO THE WEST
FRI NIGHT WITH THE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE...BUT LESS AMPLIFIED THAN
THE ECMWF. WILL INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES FRI NIGHT AND SAT. BOTH
MODELS BUILD IN AN EAST/WEST ORIENTED RIDGE ON SUNDAY...RESULTING IN
DRIER CONDITIONS. HEDGES

&&

.AVIATION....AN UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN ID IS PRODUCING LIGHT SNOW
ALONG WITH LOW CIGS EARLY THIS MORN. THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IS
MAKING THE SITUATION WORSE AT KIDA AND KPIH DUE TO UPSLOPE.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE THIS MORN AT KBYI...AND BY LATE
AFTN AT KIDA AND KPIH. HEDGES


&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







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