Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32
000
FXUS65 KPIH 250917
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
317 AM MDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...MUCH DRIER WEATHER IS ON TAP EXCEPT FOR THE VERY
END OF THE WEEKEND. A STORM DROPS INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...KEEPING THE WEATHER PATTERN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.
THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF MOISTURE AROUND FOR ISOLATED MOUNTAIN
STORMS TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO FOR
DEVELOPMENT...IF IT HAPPENS...TO BE IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS. WE WILL SEE THE OCCASIONAL BREEZE ALONG
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING 5-10 DEGREES. KEYES

.LONG TERM...LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TOMORROW...THE
WEATHER STARTS CRANKING UP WITH WINDS LIKELY STAYING UP IF NOT
INCREASING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RAPIDLY
DEVELOP AS THE LOW MOVES INTO WASHINGTON AND OREGON...BUT REMAIN
MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND UPPER SNAKE
HIGHLANDS. WE COULD SEE ISOLATED ACTIVITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SNAKE PLAIN AND MAGIC VALLEY BUT THAT IS NOT A SURE THING RIGHT
NOW. FOR MONDAY...A COLD FRONT RACES ACROSS EASTERN IDAHO PULLING
IN MUCH COLDER AIR. HIGHS WILL BE 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND A
GOOD 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY. THE FRONT MAY ALSO ACT AS
A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. THERE STANDS TO BE A MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN AND
THUNDER ACROSS THE FAR UPPER SNAKE PLAIN AND HIGHLANDS...AND THE
HIGHEST CHANCE ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS CLOSER TO THE LOW. THE
COMBINATION OF A VERY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG WINDS
ALOFT...EXPECT A PRETTY BREEZY DAY. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-30 MPH
WILL BE COMMON WITH GUSTS REACHING 40-45 MPH. EVEN WITH SOME
RECENT RAIN...IT IS LIKELY NOT ENOUGH TO PREVENT SOME BLOWING
DUST. THE STORMS QUICKLY SWINGS INTO NORTHERN MONTANA/SOUTH CANADA
TUESDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE LINGERING SHOWERS CLOSER TO THE
MONTANA BORDER...PERHAPS SPILLING INTO THE UPPER PLAIN. WE HATE TO
SAY IT...BUT DON`T BE SHOCKED IF LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT THAT
SOME WET SNOW TRIES TO FALL OVER THE HIGHEST PEAKS LIKE BORAH AND
SUCH. IT WON`T BE MUCH BUT CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO BE READY FOR IF
YOU ARE GOING TO BE UP THAT HIGH. BEYOND THAT...DRY WEATHER
RETURNS WITH A RAPID WARM UP. WE COULD SEE MONSOON MOISTURE CREEP
AROUND THE BUILDING RIDGE AND BACK IN HERE BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK. FOR NOW THOUGH...WE KEPT IT DRY.  KEYES

&&

.AVIATION...AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF ACTIVE WEATHER...THE NEXT 48 HOURS
IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER QUIET FOR ALL TAF SITES. THERE ARE AREAS
WHERE THE GROUND IS STILL WET FROM RECENT RAIN...IN PARTICULAR THE
HILLS AROUND KPIH. THAT SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO AFTERNOON
CLOUDS...BUT LESS THAN 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF ANY SHOWERS OVER THE
HIGHLANDS. THE NEXT TROUGH BRINGS SHOWERS INTO SOUTHEAST IDAHO
SUNDAY NIGHT. RS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A SHORT DRYING TREND TODAY AND MOST OF SUNDAY BEFORE
THE NEXT DISTURBANCE ARRIVES SUNDAY EVENING. THERE IS PLENTY OF WET
GROUND FROM RECENT RAIN AND THAT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AFTERNOON CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT...PARTICULARLY OVER THE CARIBOU FOREST...BUT NO SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS TO 20 MPH IN THE
ARCO DESERT WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITY LOWERING TO NEAR 15 PERCENT. THIS
NEXT DISTURBANCE IS PRETTY VIGOROUS AND WILL LIKELY PRODUCE STRONG
WINDS ON MONDAY...NEAR 40 MPH GUSTS IN THE ARCO DESERT...GUSTS TO 25
MPH COMMON ON THE UPPER RIDGE TOPS JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE. MINIMUM
HUMIDITY ON MONDAY TRENDS UP TO THE MIDDLE 20 PERCENT RANGE WHILE
TEMPERATURES FALL SHARPLY TO THE 60 TO 70 RANGE FOR THE LOWER
VALLEYS. FOR THAT REASON WINDS AND HUMIDITY DO NOT CREATE A RED FLAG
SITUATION. AT THIS TIME...THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
COULD BE LESS THAN 25 PERCENT COVERAGE. A 50-60 PERCENT CHANCE OF
THE SALMON-CHALLIS FOREST AREA RECEIVING WETTING RAINS IN THE .10 TO
.20 RANGE WITH THE POTENTIAL OF OVER 0.50 INCHES. THERE WILL BE A
SIGNIFICANT DRYING PERIOD LATER IN THE WEEK BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY. RS

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.