Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 201431
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
735 AM MST FRI FEB 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. A QUICK UPDATE THIS MORNING AS A
FEW BANDS OF SNOW WERE DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN.
REMAINDER OF FORECAST LOOKED GOOD. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.
HUSTON

SNOW WILL FINALLY RETURN TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN OUR CWA THANKS TO
AN UPPER TROUGH DRIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE TODAY. THE TROUGH
WILL BE REINFORCED BY COOLER AIR DIVING OUT OF CANADA ON SATURDAY.
MODELS AGAIN CONTINUE TO FAVOR PRECIP IN THE MOUNTAINS...BUT
SNOWFALL AMOUNT FORECAST REMAINS TO BE ABOUT 4 TO 7 INCHES THROUGH
SUNDAY. SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A LITTLE INSTABILITY SO COULD SEE SOME
SHOWERY ACTIVITY WITH BRIEF HEAVY SNOWFALL. WITH SNOW LEVELS
STARTING OFF ABOUT 400 TO 700 FT ABOVE THE VALLEY FLOOR...THE SNAKE
PLAIN MAY SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX INITIALLY BUT ONLY LIGHT PRECIP IS
EXPECTED IN THE VALLEY. SNOW LEVELS DO DROP SIGNIFICANTLY AS THE
COOLER CANADIAN AIR MAKES IT INTO IDAHO FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY.
NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO SUNDAY. MODELS PUSH A COOLER AND DRIER
AIRMASS INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY WITH PRECIP TAPERING OFF BY THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL DROP TO LOW TO MID TEENS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS.  HINSBERGER

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY. EXPECT COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BEHIND AN EXITING SYSTEM MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BECOME ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SHOW
THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. EXPECT
LIGHT PRECIPITATION...BREEZY WINDS AND A SLIGHT DROP IN
TEMPERATURES. FRIDAY EXPECT A WEAKER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY THE GFS MODEL IS SHOWING A STRONGER SYSTEM
BRINGING GOOD PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE ECMWF SHOWS A WEAKER SYSTEM
AND IS A DAY SLOWER BRINGING THIS SYSTEM THROUGH. WYATT
&&

.AVIATION...A SYSTEM IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. LOOK FOR
BREEZY WINDS AND VICINITY SHOWERS FOR THE TAF SITES. CIGS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE BUT SHOULD REMAIN VFR TODAY. KIDA AND KSUN COULD
SEE BRIEF MVFR CIGS DURING RAIN SHOWERS ON STATION TODAY. WYATT
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$






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