Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 261933
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
133 PM MDT FRI SEP 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL SLOWLY
APPROACH THE AREA STARTING TONIGHT. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
PUMP MONSOONAL MOISTURE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. INTO
EASTERN IDAHO. THE AREA WILL SEE A PROLONGED RAIN EVENT WITH THE
HEAVIEST RAIN FALLING ON SATURDAY. GENERALLY THE AREA WILL SEE
BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN. THERE WILL BE SOME ISOLATED POCKETS
IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
MOUNTAINS. WILL NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH BECAUSE THE LONG
DURATION OF THE RAIN SHOULD PREVENT ANY WIDESPREAD SERIOUS ISSUES.
HOWEVER A FEW BURN SCARS COULD HAVE SOME MUD/DEBRIS FLOWS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROBABLY REMAIN RELATIVELY ISOLATED BECAUSE OF
THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE THIS
EVENING OVER SOUTHEAST IDAHO WHERE THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
SITUATED. SATURDAY WILL BE RAINY ALMOST THE ENTIRE DAY AS THE MAIN
RAIN BAND SLOWLY MARCHES ACROSS EAST IDAHO. A DRY SLOT WILL TRY TO
WORK INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY. THIS COULD PRODUCE SOME DRY TIME
SUNDAY MORNING...BUT EXPECT SHOWERS TO FILL BACK IN BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL BE OVERHEAD ON MONDAY...SLOWLY MOVING INTO
WYOMING BY MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS EARLY IN THE
DAY...BUT THE RAIN COULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD BY AFTERNOON AS
THE NAM/GFS ARE HINTING AT A SIGNIFICANT BATCH OF RAIN MOVING INTO
THE AREA ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW.

VALLE

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY. UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST ON TUESDAY AND SHOWERS MAY LINGER ALONG THE DIVIDE AND ON
THE ID/WY BORDER. OTHERWISE...THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR WEDNESDAY AND
BEYOND LOOKS TO BE SHIFTING TO A NORTHWEST FLOW AS A RIDGE BUILDS
ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST.  DRY AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. EP

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT SHOWERS TO AFFECT TAF SITES AFTER 00Z THIS
EVENING AND SHOULD CONTINUE OFF AND ON THROUGH SUNDAY.   EXPECT
OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS
WELL.  DO NOT EXPECT STRONG WINDS WITH THE PRECIPITATION.
GK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ON SHORE INTO
CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON AND SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT WILL
SPREAD EXTENSIVE MOISTURE INTO IDAHO.   EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE DISTRICT WITH WETTING RAINS
EXPECTED EVERYWHERE.  WITH THE RAIN MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH HIGH HUMIDITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  EXPECT
SOME DRYING NEXT WEEK BUT WILL STILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
GK

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




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