Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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000
FXUS65 KPIH 292000
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
200 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IS SLOWLY BREAKING DOWN AND
MOVING EAST AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS STARTING TO MOVE OVER
NORTHERN IDAHO. EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BRINGING LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REST OF OUR AREA TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING BRINGING
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED VALLEY AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL KICK OFF TOMORROW AFTERNOON MAINLY
ACROSS OUR EASTERN AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE TODAY BREAKING RECORDS. TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
TEMPERATURES DROP SLIGHTLY BUT REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE. WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY EXPECT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS IN NORTHWEST FLOW.
SATURDAY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY AND HOT. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
INCONSISTENT FOR THE JULY 4TH WEEKEND. CURRENTLY...THE MODELS ARE
HINTING THAT MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY BRINGING INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
DESPITE MODEL CONSISTENCY...EXPECT HOT TEMPERATURES JUST BELOW
RECORD HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND. TW

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.  THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE MAIN THREAT THROUGH TUESDAY AND HAVE VICINITY ALL SITES LATE
THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.   AFTER 21Z AT SUN AND AFTER 00Z AT
BYI...PIH AND IDA.  WEAK WAVE TOPPING RIDGE WILL CREATE SOME THROUGH
TOMORROW BUT NOTHING NEAR ANY TAF SITE AS OF 20Z.  SHOULD DEVELOP
LATER.
GK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL OVER EASTERN IDAHO
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ON THE WEST SIDE OF IT.
EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON IN ZONES
475...476 AND 422 WITH LESS COVERAGE FURTHER EAST. THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING WITH AT LEAST
ISOLATED ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHEAST IDAHO AND THE ENTIRE DISTRICT
THROUGH TUESDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY MID WEEK WITH HOT
CONDITIONS CONTINUING THOUGH NOT AS HOT AS THE LAST TWO DAYS.
GK

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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