Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 252055
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
155 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF REMAIN IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE NEXT PAC LOW
CURRENTLY TOPPING THE ERN PAC RIDGE OFF THE NW BRITISH COLUMBIA
COAST. THE MODELS GRADUALLY DRIVE THE LOW INTO THE NW BRITISH
COLUMBIA OVERNIGHT AS ATTENDING MOISTURE SPILLS INTO
WASHINGTON...OREGON...AND WRN IDAHO THURSDAY MORNING. THE LOW DIGS
SOUTH ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE ADVANCING
ACROSS WRN OREGON FRIDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE WILL WORK INTO THE
CNTRL IDAHO MOUNTAINS AND MAGIC VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WITH
THE MAIN PRECIPITATION IMPACTS ANTICIPATED FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY AS THE LOW DIGS SE INTO THE SIERRA. THE MODELS SHOW SOME
SIGNIFICANT VARIATIONS ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW SATURDAY WITH THE
ECMWF ROTATING IT WESTWARD INTO THE BAY AREA WHICH WOULD RESULT IN
MUCH LESS SNOW OVER SE IDAHO AND THE NAM WHICH FLASHED A MORE
EASTWARD TRACK INTO NW NEVADA WHICH WOULD NATURALLY RESULT IN
GREATER SNOWFALL. FOR NOW AM SPLITTING THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD GFS AND THE NAM AND WILL CONTINUE TO WORK OUT THE
DETAILS AS THE EVENT DRAWS NEAR. HUSTON

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN WITH A CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN
WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION. INITIALLY WILL SEE A
WAVE DROP INTO THE BASE OF THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST. THIS
SHOULD EXIT TO OUR SOUTH AND WILL SEE SOME CLEARING STARTING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS SE IDAHO. MODELS ARE PROJECTING ANOTHER WAVE TO
DROP OUT OF BC ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL BRING MORE SNOW AND COOLER
TEMPS TO THE AREA. MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THE SYSTEM WITH INITIAL IMPACT OF SNOW TO BE FELT IN THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND SPREADING INTO THE SOUTHEAST
HIGHLANDS BY TUESDAY MORNING. TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ARE
RELATIVELY MINOR. GFS IS FASTER IN PULLING THE PRECIP OUT OF IDAHO
COMPLETELY BY EARLY WED MORNING WHILE THE ECMWF HANGS ON TO IT UNTIL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HINSBERGER
&&

.AVIATION...CONTINUED BREEZY TODAY ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN WITH WINDS
SHIFTING A BIT MORE NORTHWESTERLY/NORTHERLY AT KIDA/KPIH LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SPREAD ACROSS
SOUTHEAST IDAHO EARLY TOMORROW AND COULD BRING SNOW WITH MVFR
CIG/VIS. THE MOISTURE REACHES KPIH AND KBYI AROUND MID-MORNING...BUT
GIVING ONLY VCSH MENTION WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z
TOMORROW.  HINSBERGER
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$





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