Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 192050
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
250 PM MDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND
PRECIPITATION IS LIMITING SURFACE HEATING AND INSTABILITY THIS
AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW SOME STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT.
FOR THIS EVENING HAVE LIMITED ANY MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND A PORTION OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. IN
THE PAST 6 HOURS ANOTHER .2 TO .3 INCH OF RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER THE
CARIBOU HIGHLANDS. LOCAL RIVERS AND STREAMS HAVE A WAYS TO GO
BEFORE ANY PROBLEMS DEVELOP IN THAT RESPECT. THE LOW PRESSURE
DISTURBANCE CROSSING NEVADA AND UTAH THIS AFTERNOON MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST AND NORTHEAST TONIGHT. THIS LEAVES THE WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH
SHOULD SHIFT TOWARDS THE MONTANA LINE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. BY
THURSDAY...A NEW LOW DEVELOPS NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST...MOVING
INLAND THROUGH EXTREME SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY. THE SYSTEM
TRACKING FURTHER SOUTH STILL PUTS SOUTHEAST IDAHO UNDER SOUTHERLY
FLOW...BUT WITH LESS SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN OR EVEN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THUS THE CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS A
LOWER PROBABILITY OF OF PRECIPITATION THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE
GFS MODEL SHOWS THE LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND THAT
COULD REFOCUS PRECIPITATION OVER THIS AREA BY THE WEEKEND. RS
&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR. SCATTERED MVFR SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EARLY EVENING...MAINLY NORTH. MOUNTAINS
OBSCURED. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY EAST 12KT OR LESS...BUT GUSTS TO
NEAR 30KTS NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ALOFT...GENERALLY
NORTHEAST 10-20KT UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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