Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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000
FXUS65 KPIH 172000
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
200 PM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...TROUGH JUST OFF THE COAST MOVING TOWARDS LAND IN
SPLITTING FLOW. NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH COMES THROUGH THE
IDAHO PAN HANDLE SATURDAY. MODELS FLIP BACK AND FORTH WITH RESPECT
TO ANY PRECIPITATION BETWEEN MACKAY AND GILMORE AREA. LOOKS LIKE
MORE SUBSIDENCE/CONVERGENCE ALOFT RATHER THAN LIFTING...THEREFORE
TRIMMED BACK POPS TO JUST THE RIDGE TOP AREAS EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE WE WAIT UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR A
MORE ORGANIZED TROUGH TO BRING SOME SHOWERS THROUGH THIS AREA.
GFS EVEN HINTS AT SOME SPLITTING FLOW WITH THAT NEXT DISTURBANCE
AND SHOWERS BREAKING UP AS IT COMES THROUGH. OTHERWISE...WARMED
TEMPERATURES BACK NEAR 70 FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. RS

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
A PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH IDAHO ON TUESDAY AND EXPECT BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN LONG TERM ON THAT DAY.   SHOULD BE MAINLY
DRY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO
BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
GK

&&

.AVIATION...WILL HAVE CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS
THROUGH SATURDAY.
GK

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$






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