Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 260842
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
242 AM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...THE MAIN STORY IS THE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 36-48
HOURS. AS THE LOW KEEPS DROPPING TOWARD THE LOWER 48 TODAY...THE
WEATHER SHOULDN`T BE TOO DIFFERENT THAT YESTERDAY. WE SHOULD
TEMPERATURES WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO VS 24 HOURS AGO. A LITTLE BIT
MORE MOISTURE ARRIVES...WHICH WILL MAINLY SPELL A LITTLE
CLOUDINESS. A FEW STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
AND UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS.

THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING HAS CHANGED TOO
MUCH. WE WILL SEE A VERY WEAK FRONT SWING THROUGH THIS
EVENING...BUT THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE THE RAPID ONSET OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND UPPER
SNAKE HIGHLANDS MAINLY FROM MONIDA WESTWARD. THAT ACTIVITY WILL
EVENTUALLY BUILD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN AND MAGIC VALLEY
AS THE REAL COLD FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH INTO EASTERN IDAHO. THE BULK
OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH A QUICK
SHOT OF RAIN AND THUNDER DOWN SOUTH AS THE FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS IN
THE MORNING. CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE LOW TOMORROW...WE ARE
STILL THINKING A BIT OF WET SNOW MAY FALL ON THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF
THE LOST RIVER AND LEMHI RANGES. IT WON`T BE ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT
BUT STILL REQUIRES A COMPLETE CHANGE OF THINKING IF YOU ARE GOING
TO BE THAT HIGH UP IN THE MOUNTAINS. WE SHOULD SEE ALL OF THE
PRECIPITATION OUT OF HERE BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ANYWHERE FROM
0.20-0.50 INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE MONTANA BORDER AND
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ESPECIALLY THE FARTHER NORTH YOU GO. THERE
WILL BE A SHARP GRADIENT BETWEEN A LOT TO LITTLE FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH. THIS SYSTEM IS GOING TO PACK QUITE A BIT OF TOMORROW. WINDS
WILL PEAK IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...20-30MPH
SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS 35-45 MPH. THAT WILL MAKE FOR A ROUGH DAY ON
AREA LAKES...PLUS WE MAY SEE SOME BLOWING DUST AROUND AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 15-25 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE...AND MORE LIKE
SEPTEMBER WITH THE VALLEYS IN THE 60S AND 70S AND THE 40S/50S IN
THE MOUNTAINS. KEYES

.LONG TERM...THE FORECAST RETURNS TO WARM AND DRY VERY QUICKLY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH. BY NEXT WEEKEND...A LITTLE
BIT OF MONSOON MOISTURES WORKS AROUND THE RIDGE AND INTO EASTERN
IDAHO. FOR NOW...WE SLOWLY INTRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS BY
A WEEK FROM NOW. KEYES

&&

.AVIATION...A VIGOROUS TROUGH ENTERS IDAHO LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WINDS AT KIDA INCREASE TO SOUTHWEST 15-20KT RANGE BY
26/20Z...THE GUSTY WINDS LIMITED MOSTLY TO THE UPPER SNAKE PLAIN
THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THE REST OF THE SNAKE PLAIN...STRONG WINDS HOLD
OFF UNTIL MONDAY WHEN THEY MAY REACH 20-30KTS. KSUN MONDAY LOOK FOR
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS 15-20KTS. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
AT KSUN BEGIN 27/02Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH 27/19Z. FOR KIDA AND KPIH
STAYING MOSTLY WITH THE NAM12 WHICH BRINGS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN ROUGHLY 27/09Z. KBYI AND KPIH CLEARING EARLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...KIDA NOT UNTIL LATER ON. RS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...STRONG LOW PRESSURE DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN THE SALMON-CHALLIS AREA
AROUND 1600 HOURS AND ADVANCE ACROSS TO THE TARGHEE FOREST BEFORE
MORNING. IN THE LOWER SNAKE PLAIN SHOWERS COULD BE DELAYED UNTIL
MIDNIGHT....SPREADING TO THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS BY MONDAY MORNING.
SHOULD SEE SOME BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS NORTH OF A STANLEY TO IDAHO
FALLS LINE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. AFTERNOON MINIMUM
HUMIDITY AROUND ARCO AND CRATERS OF THE MOON DROP TO ABOUT 14
PERCENT...MOST OF THE UPPER SNAKE PLAIN AVERAGING CLOSER TO 18
PERCENT. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE MONDAY IN THE SNAKE PLAIN REACHING
25 TO 35 MPH AND GUSTY. WETTING RAINS .1 TO .2 INCH WITH LOCAL .5
INCH AMOUNTS FROM THUNDERSTORMS OR HIGHER RIDGE TOP AREAS ARE STILL
FAVORED ACROSS THE SALMON-CHALLIS...TO MONIDA PASS AND ISLAND PARK.
FURTHER SOUTH ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOSTLY DRY. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL ON MONDAY CLOSE TO 15 DEGREES WHICH WILL INCREASE
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20 PERCENT RANGE FOR THE
LOWER VALLEYS....PROBABLY 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE IN LEMHI
VALLEY...BIG AND LITTLE LOST VALLEYS. TURNING SHARPLY DRIER
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. POSSIBLY SOME MONSOON MOISTURE CIRCULATING
THROUGH CALIFORNIA TO IDAHO BY NEXT WEEKEND. RS

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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