Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 232106
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
306 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

TONIGHT:
MAIN CONCERN IS WINDS DURING THE EVENING. WILL EXTEND ADVISORY
THROUGH 0300 UTC AND EXPAND ANOTHER ROW OF COUNTIES TO THE EAST.
WINDS ARE MORE MARGINAL ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS AND WILL LET EVENING
SHIFT MAKE A LAST MINUTE CALL. BAND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS SO FAR HAVE
BEEN TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS. TEMPERATURES HAVE PLUMMETED IN THE
LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM EVAPORATION...BUT THERE HAS BEEN SOME
MODEST RECOVERY IN ITS WAKE. WINDS/CLOUDS WILL LIKELY KEEP
MINIMUMS UP JUST A BIT OVERNIGHT.

MON-WED:
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD...BUT INFLUX OF
HIGH CLOUDS...DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND DRY AIR WILL MAKE TEMPERATURES
MORE CHALLENGING THAN NORMAL. LOOKS TO BE A BIT MORE SUNSHINE ON
MON...BUT EXTENSIVE MID-HIGH CLOUDS COULD MOVE IN TUE AFTERNOON
IN THE WEST. TEMPERATURES THERE WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDING ON THAT
TIMING/AMOUNT OF CLOUDS GIVEN LOWER SUN ANGLE. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

STILL SHOWING FAIRLY DECENT LARGE SCALE AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS.
BUT RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY ON SURFACE FEATURES HAS BEEN LACKING.
VERY COLD AIRMASS LURKING TO THE NORTH COULD SPELL TROUBLE WITH
VERIFICATION. EXACT STRENGTH/DIRECTION OF NORTHWEST FLOW AND/OR
STRENGTH OF RIPPLES IN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL HAVE MAJOR IMPACT ON
WHERE COLD AIR SETTLES. AT THIS POINT...UNCERTAINTY DICTATES
STICKING WITH INITIALIZATION/CONSENSUS GRIDS FOR TEMPERATURES AND
KEEPING DRY FORECAST GOING. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1157 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

FOR ICT-SLN-HUT-CNU-RSL...STRONG/GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO
THE EVENING...AS A STRONG COLD FRONT BLASTS SOUTHEAST. THE STRONG
WINDS WILL REACH ICT AROUND 20Z...AND CNU AROUND 00Z. AREAS OF
RAIN WILL ALSO SPREAD EAST IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT....LIKELY
MOST WIDESPREAD/NUMEROUS GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM
SLN-ICT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKES IN VICINITY OF CNU WHERE SLIGHTLY BETTER
INSTABILITY RESIDES...BUT CHANCES ARE LOW SO DID NOT MENTION IN
CNU TAF. CIGS WILL BOUNCE BETWEEN MVFR AND LOW VFR ALL
SITES...CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING PROGRESS. LOW VFR CIGS WILL SPREAD BACK INTO THE REGION
LATER TONIGHT...BUT MAINLY FOR SLN-CNU.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    30  50  25  49 /  50   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      30  48  24  49 /  10   0   0   0
NEWTON          29  45  24  48 /  60   0   0   0
ELDORADO        30  47  27  48 /  70   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   32  52  27  50 /  70   0   0   0
RUSSELL         28  48  22  50 /  10   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      28  48  24  50 /  10   0   0   0
SALINA          30  47  24  49 /  10   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       30  47  23  49 /  10   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     33  52  27  49 /  70  10   0   0
CHANUTE         31  48  25  47 /  70  10   0   0
IOLA            31  46  25  47 /  70  10   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    32  49  24  49 /  70  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ049>052-067-068-
082.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ053-069-070-083-
091>094-098.

&&

$$



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