Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 180759
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
259 AM CDT Mon Sep 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 220 AM CDT Mon Sep 18 2017

The challenge for today will be the timing of the rain and the
subsequent clearing this afternoon. Expect some widespread
showers and thunderstorms this morning. Lift, shear and
instability are not strong enough to allow for severe weather
though. By the afternoon, the wave that brought the shower and
thunderstorm activity will move off to the east. Clearing will be
slow as mid level subsidence dose not seem to set up until much
later in the afternoon. Cut max temperatures for today to
compensate.

Tuesday, the next frontal system will start to encroach on the
region. The pressure gradient will tighten up and southerly winds
will pick up. Advisory level winds are possible in the Central
Kansas during the afternoon. Thunderstorm possibilities are
rather low despite the proximity of the frontal system. While
forcing and shear look good for this time, moisture is very
limited for Tuesday. This front will not move quickly and will not
push through the region until Wednesday afternoon and evening.
Moisture transport will be a little stronger by this time as will
the shear and instability. However, CIN looks to be rather strong
as well which will keep the thunderstorm activity down so
widespread thunderstorm activity is not expected.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 220 AM CDT Mon Sep 18 2017

Long range remains challenging as both the GFS and ECMWF still
have a significant rain event for the upcoming weekend. The
biggest change in both models is both are much slower. Moisture
transport from the Gulf of Mexico looks to establish itself over
much of Friday and Saturday but POPs will remain low for this time
period. Sunday this front will finally move into the region bring
the chances for showers and thunderstorms back into the forecast.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Mon Sep 18 2017

The situation is getting to be a mess now that areas of fog have
developed across most of Central & South-Central KS where vsbys
have been fluctuating from ~3SM to as low as 1 1/2SM. Cigs have
lowered into LIFR status in most areas but this was expected. A
few -SHRA/isold -TSRA remain possible for nearly areas thru Mon
morning.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    88  69  94  71 /  50  20  10   0
Hutchinson      87  68  94  69 /  60  20  10   0
Newton          86  68  93  70 /  60  20  10   0
ElDorado        84  68  91  71 /  50  20  10   0
Winfield-KWLD   87  69  93  72 /  40  20  10   0
Russell         85  65  96  63 /  50  10   0   0
Great Bend      87  65  95  64 /  40  10   0   0
Salina          86  67  95  70 /  60  20  10   0
McPherson       86  68  94  69 /  60  20  10   0
Coffeyville     85  69  90  72 /  40  20  20  10
Chanute         82  68  88  71 /  50  20  20  10
Iola            81  67  88  71 /  50  20  20  10
Parsons-KPPF    83  68  89  72 /  50  20  20  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ELM
LONG TERM...ELM
AVIATION...EPS


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