Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 131749
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1149 AM CST Mon Nov 13 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 315 AM CST Mon Nov 13 2017

Surface high is currently situated over eastern MO/western IL
with an upper shortwave approaching the central Appalachians.

Dense fog has developed across part of central KS as low level
moisture has started to roll back to the northwest. It is
occurring on the northwest fringes of the low clouds. As the
surface high continues to shift east, return flow will increase
allowing low level moisture to continue to increase. It appears we
are going to get another round of widespread drizzle starting
late this afternoon and really pick up this evening as isentropic
lift just off of the surface quickly increases. Locations along
and east of the KS Turnpike will have the best chance to see
drizzle which will continue into at least Tue morning.

There is decent model agreement that shortwave energy will slide
across the northern Plains Tue evening. As this occurs, moisture
transport in the 850-700mb level will increase which may result in
a few rumbles of thunder across se KS Tue night. A weak cold
front will push through Wed, but the drier air will be short-
lived.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 315 AM CST Mon Nov 13 2017

Surface high will once again shift east on Thu allowing the area
to quickly get back into moist return flow. Low level isentropic
upglide will once again quickly increase Thu afternoon into Thu
evening with yet another round of drizzle possible across eastern
KS. A more robust piece of energy is forecast to swing across the
northern/central Plains Fri into Fri evening. GFS moves this
feature through faster than the ECMWF and thus pushes the cold
front through quicker. Whichever model verifies, confidence is
high that by Fri night, the front will be through and drier cooler
air will be spilling south. This should also be the start of
several days without the drizzle and fog that has been around the
last week. The airmass behind the front will not be drastically
colder, with highs for the weekend still expected to be in the
50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1136 AM CST Mon Nov 13 2017

Widespread MVFR/IFR stratus will continue this afternoon.
Southerly flow, increased boundary layer moisture advection, and
isentropic lift in the 290-300 K layer will allow for stratus to
deteriorate to IFR/LIFR tonight into Tuesday morning. Patchy light
drizzle could develop this afternoon in south-central Kansas, with
areas of drizzle becoming more likely tonight into Tuesday
morning, especially along and east of the Kansas Turnpike.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    52  49  63  49 /  30  40  20  40
Hutchinson      51  47  63  45 /  20  20  10  20
Newton          51  48  62  47 /  20  30  20  40
ElDorado        53  49  62  50 /  30  50  20  60
Winfield-KWLD   54  51  63  52 /  30  50  20  40
Russell         52  45  63  39 /  10  10  10   0
Great Bend      52  45  64  41 /  10  10  10  10
Salina          52  46  63  43 /  10  10  10  20
McPherson       51  47  63  44 /  20  20  10  20
Coffeyville     56  50  60  53 /  20  50  30  70
Chanute         54  49  58  51 /  10  50  30  80
Iola            53  49  58  51 /  10  40  30  80
Parsons-KPPF    55  50  59  52 /  10  50  30  70

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...JMC



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