Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 100913
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
313 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 313 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2018

Main concern is potential snow accums and strong north winds, colder
surge of air across the area late tonight/Thursday. Upper low/trof
was moving into Arizona early this morning and will continue its
eastward move during the day across New Mexico. The main challenge
today remains the cloud trends, especially the stratus which has
expanded from southeast into parts of central Kansas. The western
extent of this stratus deck looks to be most prevalent along and
east of the I-135 corridor which will limit the warming in an
otherwise unseasonably mild airmass. However, western portions of
central Kansas may approach 70F with enough sunshine this afternoon.
South winds could also flirt with advisory criteria today, though
confidence is marginal with more clouds limiting warming/mixing
potential a bit.

The models remain consistent in lifting the Southwest CONUS upper
trof northeast across Kansas tonight. A few showers and perhaps
some patchy drizzle will be possible, mainly this evening prior to
midnight. A strong cold front will plunge southeast behind the
departing low in the predawn hours. Decent frontogenetical forcing
and omega near the snow growth zone is progged in the 09z to 12z
time frame across central Kansas where point soundings and cross
sections support a quick changeover to snow. While the window is
relatively small, this could promote a quick inch or two of snow
along the I-70 corridor in central Kansas. This in combo with the
strong post-frontal north winds will warrant a slight south and
east expansion of the current Winter Weather Advisory. Though
weakening as it moves southeast, this elevated frontogenetic zone
should support light snow or flurries across south central and
southeast Kansas into midday Thursday, as the southern portion of
the central CONUS upper trof amplifies across the southern Plains
during the day. The strong cold advection, post-frontal winds
will likely necessitate a Wind Advisory for locations south of the
Winter Weather Advisory early Thursday, though will let the Day
shift assess this in concert with any change to the Winter
headline. Little moderation is expected on Friday after a cold
start with temperatures only recovering to within a few degrees of
freezing.

Darmofal

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 313 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2018

A secondary surge of even colder, Arctic air still looks poised
to drop south across Kansas Friday night into Saturday.
Temperatures will average well below climo through the weekend
into early next week with another reinforcing surge of cold air
Sunday night/Monday. Chances for measurable precip/snow will be
low, though non-zero.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1150 PM CST Tue Jan 9 2018

The greatest challenge is how far W IFR stratus will expand the
rest of the night. There were reports of BKN decks ~700ft as far
W as KIAB & KAAO this eve but they scattered out ~04Z. Still
expect stratus to refill across South-Central KS the rest of the
night then spread N across KSLN 10-12Z. Decks from 500-700ft are
likely at most terminals (The exceptions would be KGBD & KRSL.)
thru at least late Wed morning as very sharp & deep inversion from
1,000-3,500ft will team with the afore-mentioned cirrostratus veil
to keep all of South-Central & SE KS stratified. S winds will
slowly increase to a sustained 13-17kts with ~25kt gusts likely by
early Wed morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    61  29  30  12 /   0  50  60   0
Hutchinson      63  26  29  10 /  10  70  50   0
Newton          60  26  29  10 /   0  70  60   0
ElDorado        58  30  31  11 /   0  50  60   0
Winfield-KWLD   60  32  34  13 /   0  40  40   0
Russell         68  21  26   9 /  10  80  40   0
Great Bend      68  23  28  10 /  10  70  30   0
Salina          63  25  27   9 /  10  90  60   0
McPherson       62  25  28   8 /  10  80  60   0
Coffeyville     58  41  44  15 /   0  40  50  10
Chanute         57  37  39  12 /   0  40  60  10
Iola            57  37  38  12 /   0  40  60  10
Parsons-KPPF    57  40  42  14 /   0  40  50  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST
Thursday for KSZ032-033-048-049.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KED
LONG TERM...KED
AVIATION...EPS



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