Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 130947
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
347 AM CST Mon Feb 13 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 347 AM CST Mon Feb 13 2017

Today:
The primary focus is the onset of precipitation. A deep & intense
cyclone has been spinning over extreme Nrn Baja CA/extreme
Northwest Mexico border. As this character moves slowly east,
moisture will begin its northeast migration. The depth of dry air
for most of the day is about 10,000ft & doesn`t begin to decrease
until late this afternoon. As such light rain shouldn`t arrive
South-Central KS until about 3 PM, around which time the cyclone
should reach the Southeast AZ/Southwest NM border.

Tonight-Tue Night:
As the intense cyclone continues its trek east, rain will likewise
increase, spreading east across Southern KS with the bulk of the
rain occurring south of Highway 400. With the onset of colder air
spreading southeast a light rain/light snow mixture would likewise
spread southeast late tonight. With increased lift, some sleet may
also occur. As the cyclone, which will weaken as it moves east
across the Southern Plains on Tue, the precipitation would further
south. If any light rain does clip the KICT Neighborhood, it would
be along the OK Border & be limited to Tue Morning. With northerly
flow increasing, Tue Night would of course be colder but by that
time all precipitation would/ve vacated Southern KS.

Wed & Wed Night:
All will be quiet as the afore-mentioned cyclone continues to
weaken, eventually phasing with an extremely intense cyclone that
will move southeast then east across the Great Lakes.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 347 AM CST Mon Feb 13 2017

Unseasonably warm weather dominates the neighborhood the rest of
the work-week as a strong upper-deck ridge moves east across the
Great Plains.

Next Weekend:
After a nice start, the weekend becomes active as a deep,
negatively-tilted upper-deck wave moves east across the Southern
Plains. The wave will induce pronounced surface cyclogenesis which
would inject rich moisture north into KS. The upper-deck wave will
inject a strong 100-110 kt jet max north-northeast that should
reach Western & Central KS Sun Night. Details regarding
thunderstorm intensity will get clearer as next weekend approaches.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1128 PM CST Sun Feb 12 2017

VFR conditions are expected for the region for the next 24 hours.
Expecting increasing mid level clouds by early Mon morning, as a
weak system in the srn Rockies begins to move into the srn plains.
Lots of dry air below this mid layer deck may lead to a few
sprinkles, so will include VCSH for most locations. More likely
virga will be the main precip chance during the daytime hours on
Mon.

Ketcham

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 347 AM CST Mon Feb 13 2017

With a moistening airmass coupling with fairly light winds, the
grassland fire danger will be kept in check.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    50  34  53  30 /  30  40  10   0
Hutchinson      49  32  53  28 /  30  20   0   0
Newton          50  33  52  29 /  20  20   0   0
ElDorado        51  34  53  30 /  30  30  10   0
Winfield-KWLD   51  35  52  30 /  40  60  20   0
Russell         47  29  54  27 /  20  20   0   0
Great Bend      46  30  53  27 /  20  20   0   0
Salina          49  31  54  27 /  20  20   0   0
McPherson       49  31  52  27 /  20  20   0   0
Coffeyville     55  36  53  31 /  30  70  20   0
Chanute         53  34  54  30 /  20  40  10   0
Iola            52  34  53  29 /  10  30  10   0
Parsons-KPPF    53  35  53  30 /  30  60  20   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EPS
LONG TERM...EPS
AVIATION...Ketcham
FIRE WEATHER...EPS



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