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000
FXUS63 KICT 221217
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
717 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 246 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

Today...There is another chance of thunderstorms across central
KS late this afternoon and evening, as a strong cold front
approaches from the north. Modest shear and instability will
support a few strong to severe storms, capable of large hail and
damaging winds. Activity should tend to sink south with the front
through the evening and night, possible eventually getting into
southern KS, although the severe threat will have diminished by
then. Additionally, non-severe post-frontal showers/embedded
thunderstorms should redevelop across central and northern KS
later tonight, within a zone of modest mid-level lift. Otherwise,
today will be the last hot day until Tuesday or Wednesday of next
week, with temperatures similar to yesterday, although heat
indices may be a tad higher over southeast KS due to increasing
dewpoints.

Friday...Thinking skies will be partly to mostly cloudy Friday,
with hit-or-miss areas of showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms
especially the first half of the day, within a persistent zone of
mid-level baroclinicity. Severe weather is not expected. The
clouds and Canadian airmass will support high temperatures in the
low 80s.

Saturday...Another stellar day Saturday, with highs in the upper
70s to low 80s. Clouds will gradually be on the increase from the
northwest, with possibly a few showers central KS late in the day.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 246 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

Sunday-Monday...There will probably be more clouds than sun
Sunday, with hit-or-miss areas of rain showers, as another
disturbance races southeast across Mid-America. Not looking at an
all-day rain-out, but there will be patchy areas of rain around.
Temperatures will once again be on the cooler side with highs in
the mid 70s to near 80. Monday will be much the same
precipitation-wise, although high temperatures should be a few
degrees warmer.

Tuesday thru late next week...The warming trend and strengthening
southerly winds will commence by Tuesday, as the broad Mid-
America longwave trough starts moving east. High temperatures by
Wed-Thu should be in the upper 80s to 90s most areas, along with
increasing dewpoints/humidity and stout/gusty south winds.
Additionally, the overall synoptic pattern advertised by the
medium range model consensus should support periodic thunderstorm
chances somewhere across Mid-America Tuesday evening through at
least Friday night, mainly during the evening-nighttime hours.
Exact placement and timing of these various thunderstorm complexes
remains highly uncertain this far out.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 714 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

Combo of issues impacting TAFs this morning. Low level moisture
working north has spread into extreme corner of Southeast KS.
Models at odds on how far northwest this will spread. Satellite
trends have shown considerable slowing over the last 2 hours, so
will go conservative on this and only introduce scattered deck
for now. Ceilings at KJLN and KGMJ are just below 3 kft. Second
issue is the timing of cold front and attendent precipitation.
Again models show considerable varaiation on when precipitation
will develop and how long it will last. Temperatures aloft appear
to be a bit warmer potentially delaying development, but front
moving south will provide a bit more forcing. Will introduce VCTS
around/after 0000 UTC and continue into the evening before
transitioning to VCSH overnight. Could see brief period of MVFR
ceilings develop behind front, but limited this to KCNU for now,
with VFR ceilings elsewhere. -Howerton

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    93  70  83  60 /  10  30  30   0
Hutchinson      95  68  81  58 /  10  30  30   0
Newton          93  68  81  59 /  10  30  30   0
ElDorado        90  68  81  59 /  10  30  30   0
Winfield-KWLD   91  70  83  60 /   0  20  30  10
Russell         98  64  80  56 /  30  40  30   0
Great Bend      96  65  80  57 /  20  40  40   0
Salina          98  67  82  58 /  10  40  30   0
McPherson       95  67  81  57 /  10  40  30   0
Coffeyville     89  70  84  59 /   0  20  30  10
Chanute         89  70  82  58 /   0  30  30   0
Iola            89  70  82  57 /  10  30  30   0
Parsons-KPPF    89  71  83  59 /   0  20  30   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADK
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...PJH