Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 311122
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
622 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE IS CONVECTIVE CHANCES/PLACEMENT ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL SUMMER
TIME HEAT. KANSAS WILL REMAIN IN RATHER WEAK WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WITH MODEST DIURNAL INSTABILITY EACH DAY. WHILE CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL REMAIN NON-ZERO...THEY APPEAR RELATIVELY
SMALL. BETTER CHANCES FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION LOOK TO RESIDE
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
SOMEWHAT STRONGER FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
MIDWEST. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME
MOVING AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST WILL STAY PRIMARILY JUST
WEST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. A MODEST LOW LEVEL JET AND WEAK
DISTURBANCE ALOFT MOVING THRU THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY PROVIDE
A RELATIVELY BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME CONVECTION...ALBEIT
SLIGHT...SATURDAY NIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

AN ELONGATED SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING THRU THE WESTERN CONUS UPPER
RIDGE LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SO PLAN TO MAINTAIN SLIGHT TO MODEST POPS
ACROSS THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IN THE OUTER PERIODS OF THE FORECAST
ARE LOW...ESPECIALLY WITH REGARD TO POPS...AS THE UPPER RIDGE IS
PROGGED TO BUILD OVER KANSAS AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS. FOR NOW WILL
MAKE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST...THOUGH PRECIP CHANCES LOOK
SOMEWHAT SUSPECT BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FOR ICT-HUT-SLN-RSL-CNU...WILL SEE PATCHY/SHALLOW GROUND FOG EARLY
THIS MORNING ACROSS THE REGION...AFFECTING MAINLY LOW-LYING AND/OR
SHELTERED AREAS. PATCHY VISIBILITIES WILL BRIEFLY/INTERMITTENTLY
DROP BELOW 1 MILE. THINKING HUT HAS THE GREATEST POTENTIAL.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...WITH DIURNAL FEW- SCT
CUMULUS AROUND 4000-6000 FT AGL DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    91  70  92  71 /  10  10  10  20
HUTCHINSON      92  69  93  71 /  10  10  10  20
NEWTON          92  69  92  70 /  10  10  10  20
ELDORADO        91  69  92  70 /  10  10  10  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   91  70  92  71 /  20  10  10  20
RUSSELL         92  67  93  69 /  10  20  10  20
GREAT BEND      91  67  92  69 /  10  10  10  20
SALINA          94  69  95  71 /  10  20  10  20
MCPHERSON       92  68  93  71 /  10  10  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     91  69  92  70 /  20  10  10  10
CHANUTE         92  68  92  70 /  10  10  10  10
IOLA            91  68  92  69 /  10  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    92  69  92  70 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$


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