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000
FXUS63 KICT 042119
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
319 PM CST WED DEC 4 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST WED DEC 4 2013

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS: PERIODIC SNOW CHANCES
THROUGH SUNDAY...AND *MUCH COLDER* THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH AT LEAST MID NEXT WEEK.

STRONG AREA OF MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND ASSOCIATED NARROW BAND
OF SNOW (CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN COLORADO) IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS
AND/OR DEVELOP EASTWARD...AFFECTING PRIMARILY CENTRAL /NORTH-
CENTRAL KS ROUGHLY AFTER 9PM. LAPSE RATES AND SYNOPTIC LIFT WITHIN
THE SNOW GROWTH REGION ARE NOT SPECTACULAR...SO NOT ANTICIPATING
MORE THAN ONE-HALF INCH ACCUMULATIONS. OTHERWISE...PERSISTENT MID-
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...AHEAD OF APPROACHING WESTERN CONUS TROUGH
AND ALSO IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER MIDWEST JET...SHOULD
ALLOW FOR PERIODIC SNOW FLURRIES AND/OR VERY LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY. DRY LOW-LEVELS AND LACK OF PERSISTENT STRONG LIFT
SHOULD PRECLUDE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MORE THAN A DUSTING THOUGH.
MAIN WESTERN CONUS TROUGH FINALLY EJECTS NORTHEAST THU NIGHT-FRI.
INCREASED MID-LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION AND ASSOCIATED
FRONTOGENESIS SHOULD ALLOW AN INCREASE IN LIGHT SNOW COVERAGE OVER
FAR SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST KS. HOWEVER...MOST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
TREND THIS SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH...WITH BRUNT OF HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED OVER OKLAHOMA...ARKANSAS AND SOUTHERN
MISSOURI. CONSEQUENTLY...TRENDED DOWN SNOW AMOUNTS TO NO MORE THAN
1-2 INCHES OVER FAR SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST KS THU NIGHT-FRI
MORNING...AND LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO DECREASE THESE AMOUNTS
EVEN MORE.

ADK

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST WED DEC 4 2013

DUE TO GOOD MODEL-TO-MODEL AND RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY...CONFIDENCE
IN LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE REGION CONTINUES TO INCREASE
FOR SAT NIGHT-SUN...AS DEEP WESTERN CONUS TROUGHING DEVELOPS ONCE
AGAIN IN RESPONSE TO STRONG JET ENERGY DIVING SOUTH OVER THE WEST
COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY MODEST TO STRONG
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION WITH ONLY SO-SO LAPSE RATES.
ADDITIONALLY...VERY DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR WILL NEED TO BE OVERCOME
BEFORE ACCUMULATIONS COMMENCE. THEREFORE...SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR UNLIKELY...WITH PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES AROUND
1-3 INCHES POSSIBLE...HIGHEST AMOUNTS CENTRAL KS.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...WITH A PERSISTENT/DEEP LONG-WAVE
TROUGH ANCHORED OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA...WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TO MID
NEXT WEEK...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND 20S AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. IF THIS HOLDS TRUE...IT COULD
BE A TOP-TEN COLDEST START TO DECEMBER THROUGH THE FIRST 10-15
DAYS OF THE MONTH.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CST WED DEC 4 2013

THE MAIN AVIATION FORECAST CONCERN IS IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS. THE
FOG HAS ERODED WITH THE ADVECTION OF THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT...BUT A LOW STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO PLAGUE THE AREA.
CEILINGS AROUND 1000 TO 1500 FEET ARE PREVALENT. THINK CEILINGS
WILL LIFT SOME DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...BUT VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE TOUGH TO COME BY.

DID ADD SOME SNOW TO THE FORECAST FOR KRSL/KSLN/KHUT DURING THE
OVERNIGHT...THINK A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. THERE
MAY BE A BRIEF REDUCTION IN VISIBILITIES...BUT LONG TERM
REDUCTIONS TO FLIGHT CATEGORIES IS NOT EXPECTED.

NORTH WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST AND REMAIN BREEZY
AROUND 15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20-25KTS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    17  23  12  22 /  10  30  30  10
HUTCHINSON      15  22   9  20 /  30  30  30  10
NEWTON          15  23   9  19 /  20  20  30  10
ELDORADO        17  23  12  21 /  10  20  30  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   19  24  14  24 /  10  30  50  20
RUSSELL         11  19   5  18 /  50  20  20   0
GREAT BEND      12  20   6  19 /  40  30  20  10
SALINA          14  21   8  20 /  40  20  20  10
MCPHERSON       14  22   9  19 /  40  20  20  10
COFFEYVILLE     24  26  17  23 /  10  40  60  60
CHANUTE         21  24  14  22 /  10  30  50  40
IOLA            20  24  13  21 /  10  30  40  30
PARSONS-KPPF    22  26  15  22 /  10  40  60  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$