Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45
000
FXUS63 KICT 181140
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
540 AM CST Sat Feb 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 244 AM CST Sat Feb 18 2017

Forecast highlights the next 7-10 days: Well above normal
temperatures through Thu, with a cool down by Fri-Sat. Rain
likely Sun evening into Mon, and possibly again Thu-Fri.

Unseasonably warm temperatures, on the order of 20-25 degrees
above normal, will continue the next several days, as the main
polar upper jet and associated cold air remains bottled up across
Canada. An upper low will continue moving over the Southern Plains
and Lower Mississippi River Valley today, with any rain chances
remaining well east of the region.

Model consensus suggests increasing rain and embedded
thunderstorm chances areawide Sun evening, lingering into Mon over
far eastern Kansas, as a deep upper trough approaches from the
west. Despite ample moisture and even some instability, best upper
forcing and associated greatest chances for widespread meaningful
precipitation appears to remain south of the forecast area.
Still, many locations over generally the eastern half of Kansas
could see rainfall amounts up to around one-quarter inch. Not
expecting severe storms given the limited instability despite
modest forcing.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 244 AM CST Sat Feb 18 2017

Model consensus and GFS ensembles suggest warm and quiet weather
will likely continue Tue-Wed, as upper ridging builds over Mid-
America. Thereafter, operational model consensus progresses an
energetic shortwave east into Mid-America, increasing
precipitation chances Thu-Fri. Despite poor agreement among the
GFS ensemble members, operational runs are in surprisingly good
agreement surrounding the overall synoptic pattern. At this point,
greatest threat for showers/thunderstorms appears generally
across eastern Kansas Thu night, with a potential
snowstorm/blizzard in the colder air north/northeast of Kansas.
Latest model runs even wrap some snow south into northern/central
Kansas late Thu night-Fri. All-in-all, Still quite a bit of
uncertainty this far out, so stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 539 AM CST Sat Feb 18 2017

VFR conditions are expected for the first 18 hours. Expect some high
cloudiness across SE KS early as weak system moves east of the area.

Of greater concern will be increasing low level moisture and
diminishing aviation conditions late this evening, as a stronger
system moves into the southern plains. This will lead to stratus
clouds and IFR cigs moving into srn KS by around 05-60z/Sun. Will
include this in the KICT and KHUT tafs after 05z. Expect the
diminishing cloud trend to continue late tonight, with potentially
LIFR cigs moving into Srn KS with some MVFR vsbys as well.

Ketcham

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 244 AM CST Sat Feb 18 2017

Warm and breezy weather along with low humidity will support
periodic high to very high grassland fire danger the next several
days. However, winds will likely remain low enough and humidity
high enough to keep fire danger below extreme/critical values for
most days. The strongest winds look to be Mon, Thu and Fri. Rain
chances will increase Sun evening into Mon, especially over
southern and eastern KS, with precipitation chances increasing
again Thu-Fri.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    70  49  69  53 /   0  10  10  70
Hutchinson      71  48  69  51 /   0  10  10  60
Newton          69  49  67  53 /   0  10  10  70
ElDorado        70  49  69  55 /   0  10  10  70
Winfield-KWLD   69  50  70  55 /   0   0  20  70
Russell         70  45  68  48 /   0  10  10  50
Great Bend      70  46  67  47 /   0  10  10  50
Salina          71  47  70  52 /   0  10  10  60
McPherson       71  48  69  51 /   0  10  10  60
Coffeyville     69  50  73  58 /  10   0  10  70
Chanute         70  48  72  58 /  10   0  10  70
Iola            70  48  72  57 /   0   0  10  60
Parsons-KPPF    70  49  73  58 /  10   0  10  70

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADK
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...BDK
FIRE WEATHER...ADK



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.