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000
FXUS63 KICT 120505
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1205 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2014

MILD TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED AGAIN ON SATURDAY AS THE H85
THERMAL RIDGE EXPANDS NORTH AND EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
HIGHS MAY EXCEED 90 ACROSS PORTIONS OF HARPER & KINGMAN COUNTIES
WHERE H85 TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW 20S C.
MAINTAINED LOW POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS AFTER 21Z AS THE CAP MAY WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY ALONG THE
DRYLINE NEAR P28 BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED DUE TO
A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION.

ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
SATURDAY NIGHT AFTER 04-06Z ALONG THE NOSE OF A LLJ WHICH SHOULD
FAVOR NORTHEAST KANSAS OR THE COUNTIES MAINLY OUTSIDE OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. MAINTAINED LOW POPS FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
ALTHOUGH A STOUT CAP MAY PRECLUDE MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

BETTER CHANCES FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
TOWARD MIDDAY ON SUNDAY ALONG AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. A SQUALL LINE
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A
LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT EXPECTED MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF
THE KANSAS TURNPIKE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT BEHIND THE FRONT MAY SUPPORT A
TRANSIENT AREA OF LIGHT SNOW AS THE COLUMN QUICKLY COOLS IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT. ACCUMULATIONS...IF ANY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT
AND MAINLY ON ELEVATED OR GRASSY SURFACES. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO FALL BELOW FREEZING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING ACROSS
RUSSELL AND BARTON COUNTIES AND A FROST OR FREEZE WATCH MAY BE
NEEDED IF THIS TREND CONTINUES.

MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ON MONDAY WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES
ANTICIPATED. THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR FROST
OR FREEZE HEADLINES MONDAY NIGHT WITH FORECAST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
ON EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING. CONFIDENCE IN A WIDESPREAD FROST OR
FREEZE REMAINS FAIRLY LOW AS THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON THE
POSITION OF THE SFC RIDGE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2014

MODERATING TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO SEASONABLE NORMALS IN
NORTHWEST MID/UPPER FLOW. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO DRIVE ANOTHER COLD FRONT SOUTH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON WED NIGHT/THU KNOCKING HIGHS BACK INTO
THE LOW 60S ON THU. MAINTAINED LOW POPS THU-THU NIGHT

FIRE...BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN TO SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS ON SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ALONG THE
COLORADO STATE LINE. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY
WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED ALONG THE
FRONT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

AREAS OF SMOKE (FU) WILL OCCASIONALLY RESTRICT VSBYS TO 3-5SM IN CNTRL
& SC KS THEN TOWARD MORNING INCREASING LWR-DECK MOIST ADVECTION WILL
RESULT IN SCT-BKN DECKS ~1,000FT OVER NEARLY ALL AREAS STARTING ~10Z
WITH 4-5SM VSBYS IN MANY AREAS. ALL AREAS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR STATUS
LATE SAT MORNING AS A APPROACHING...INTENSE WRN PLAINS SFC TROF INDUCES
S WINDS TO GREATLY INCREASE TO ~22KTS/25MPH SUSTAINED IN MOST AREAS
WITH ~30KT/35MPH GUSTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2014

BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN TO SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS ON SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ALONG THE
COLORADO STATE LINE. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY
WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED ALONG THE
FRONT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    62  70  36  50 /  10  60  50  20
HUTCHINSON      61  67  34  50 /  20  60  50  10
NEWTON          62  69  33  48 /  20  70  50  10
ELDORADO        62  72  35  50 /  20  80  50  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   62  74  36  51 /  10  80  50  20
RUSSELL         55  56  30  50 /  30  60  40  10
GREAT BEND      56  59  31  50 /  20  50  40  10
SALINA          59  64  34  50 /  30  60  50  10
MCPHERSON       60  67  33  49 /  20  60  50  10
COFFEYVILLE     64  75  38  51 /  10  80  60  30
CHANUTE         63  74  37  49 /  20  80  60  20
IOLA            63  73  37  49 /  20  80  60  20
PARSONS-KPPF    64  74  36  50 /  10  80  60  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

ES