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000
FXUS63 KICT 221204
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
704 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY COMBINATION WILL SEND THE HEAT INDEX VALUES
SOARING AGAIN TODAY...WITH ALL AREAS LIKELY REACHING HEAT ADVISORY
LEVELS THUS WILL INCLUDE ENTIRE AREA FOR HEADLINES. OTHERWISE STILL
EXPECTING THE SURFACE FRONT TO MIGRATE SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS FOR
TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS AND COULD MIGRATE
SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS TONIGHT...HOWEVER FORCING
REMAINS WEAK ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE
COVERAGE FURTHER SOUTH. WEDNESDAY`S DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE LOWER
THAN TUESDAY BUT STILL REMAIN A LITTLE WARMER THAN NORMAL...WE
COULD SEE A FEW AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS TRY AND MATERIALIZE LATER IN
THE DAY ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN KANSAS. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE FOR KANSAS ON THURSDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE HEARTLAND FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND...AND HEAT HEADLINES COULD COME BACK INTO THE PICTURE GIVEN
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON FRONTAL
POSITIONING/TIMING FOR SUNDAY AS GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SHOW DIFFERENT
SOLUTIONS. WE WILL MAINTAIN SOME SLIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR
SUNDAY BUT MODEL SIGNAL IS NOT ALL THAT GREAT ALONG THE SURFACE
FRONT. MEANWHILE...IF LONGER RANGE MODELS MAINTAIN CURRENT TRENDS OF
A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER RIDGE
AXIS RETROGRADING INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A
NOTICEABLE COOL DOWN FOR KANSAS NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION...WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AGAIN.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO ONCE AGAIN GENERATE SOME FOG AT
KICT/KCNU. GIVEN LACK OF STRATUS THIS MORNING...FOG SHOULD BE SHORT
LIVED. WEAKER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT SO WINDS WILL ALSO BE LESS
TODAY. FRONT WILL MOVE NEAR KRSL/KSLN LATE IN THE FORECAST. MODELS
HINTING FAIRLY STRONGLY WITH BOUNDARY LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY THAT
STRATUS WILL DEVELOP IMMEDIATELY BEHIND FRONT. CONSIDERABLE QUESTION
AS TO CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL GIVEN WEAK FORCING AND STRONG CAP. SO GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY/TIMING ISSUES...OPTED TO GO DRY AT THIS TIME. -HOWERTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    99  74  96  71 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON     101  74  95  71 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON         100  74  93  70 /  10  20  10  10
ELDORADO        99  74  93  70 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   98  75  95  71 /  10  10  20  20
RUSSELL        102  73  94  70 /  10  20  10  10
GREAT BEND     102  73  94  71 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA         105  74  94  69 /  10  20  10  10
MCPHERSON      103  74  94  70 /  10  20  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     97  74  95  70 /  10  10  30  30
CHANUTE         97  74  93  69 /  10  20  20  20
IOLA            97  74  92  68 /  10  20  20  20
PARSONS-KPPF    97  74  94  69 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$