Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
FXUS64 KLZK 251744
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1244 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016
.AVIATION...25/18z Taf Cycle
Next band of convection wl cont working ewd thru cntrl and ern AR
this aftn. MVFR cigs wl prevail ahead of this activity...with
ocnl IFR conds where storms affect individual fcst sites.
subsidence behind the convection has resulted in VFR conds ovr nrn
AR. Overall improving conds are expected elsewhere heading into
this evening. Low clouds/ptchy br wl dvlp later tngt over most
areas... produced mainly MVFR conds into thu mrng. /44/
.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 333 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016)
SHORT TERM...Today Through Thursday Night
Satellite imagery this morning shows thunderstorm complexes from
southern Kansas extending down into southeast Oklahoma. Looking at
the surface and synoptic setup...it`s no surprise...given
southwest upper flow over the region...and mesoscale surface
boundaries in place.
Showers/storms have developed and spread into western Arkansas
early this morning. Convection associated with the thunderstorm
complexes will wane in the next few hours...however...these will
likely generate new convection in the form of an mcv in the hours
around/after sunrise...with additional showers/storms expected.
Several problems to contend with today...not the least of which is
the instability present. Even if earlier precip works the airmass
over in places, recovery should be no problem. With dewpoints in
the 60s to lower 70s and temperatures in the 80s expected, there`s
plenty of opportunity for surface-based destabilization. There
could be isolated strong storms, with wind damage and hail a
concern. With deep moisture in place, localized heavy rainfall
would be a concern with any stronger storms as well. In other
words, similar to yesterday.
Though showers/storms will diminish somewhat later in the day...
scattered convection will remain a concern simply due to the
interaction of upper level impulses moving through, daytime
heating, and outflow from previous convection.
Scattered showers/storms will continue to be possible into
Thursday. By then, a much more potent upper level system will
approach the region from the southwest, with showers and
thunderstorms becoming likely in much of the area by the evening
LONG TERM...Friday Through Tuesday
The long term period will remain unsettled as SW flow aloft will
continue for late this week through the Memorial Day weekend. Early
in the period...rain chances will be highest as an upper trough to
the west lifts NE Fri into Sat. Have high end chance to likely pops
for Fri into Sat as this trough lifts NE...north of the state. Will
then seen precip chances decrease as the SW flow aloft relaxes
some...and with no discernible upper disturbances moving overhead.
The weaker SW flow aloft will continue late this weekend into early
next week...which will keep moisture levels across the region
up...along with temps at or just above normal. For now...will keep
pops lower in the slight to low end chance category for the rest of
the long term due to the weaker flow aloft. As a result of this
weaker flow aloft...will likely see SHRA/TSRA coverage and potential
become more diurnally driven...with best pops during the day.
However...this could change some whenever any weak upper
disturbances pass overhead...or with any mesoscale systems moving
through the region. Even so...being several days out...don`t think
much higher pops would be necessary at this time.