Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 130841
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
341 AM CDT Wed Sep 13 2017

.SHORT TERM...Today Through Thursday Night
Light returns showing up on regional mosaic radar imagery this
morning, but the majority of rain associated with the remnants of
Irma has been sparse through the overnight hours. Hi-res guidance
indicates some redevelopment of showers through the remainder of
the morning with this activity generally limited to the eastern
tier of counties. Radar trends support this solution, so keeping
lower end PoPs in through the morning before drying things out by
this afternoon. As precipitation ends west-to-east, clouds will
also begin to push out with sunshine returning for western
counties before dusk. Elsewhere, clouds will continue to erode
through the night into Thursday morning. Given the lingering cloud
cover for the eastern half of the area, kept temps slightly
cooler there with max values in the mid/upper 70s with 80s
expected farther west.

Upper ridging then builds from the west with gradually rising
surface pressures and a return to southerly surface flow for the
last half of the period. Given this pattern, expecting a return to
quiet weather with temperatures increasing markedly by Thursday
afternoon as highs climb into the mid and upper 80s with some
locations in western AR possibly reaching the low 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...Friday Through Tuesday
The extended forecast will have some chances of rain in it, while
temperatures warm back closer to normal values.

Friday and Saturday will overall be dry with warm temperatures, as
the upper and surface high pressure ridging is the main feature over
the region. Highs will be from the mid to upper 80s. Saturday may
see some isolated convection in northwestern ares, but coverage
is expected to be low.

Sunday will see the surface and upper high pressure ridging
weakening and drifting more south of AR. A front does drift toward
AR, but becomes nearly stationary over northern AR. This will bring
some rain chances and a bit lower temperatures to AR, and even a bit
more rain chances on Monday and some on Tuesday. The main upper lift
does focus more over western parts of the state with the highest
potential for rain. Temperatures will generally be around or below
normal values, especially below in those areas that see more clouds
and rain. There is some uncertainty on the coverage, location and
amount of rainfall possible, and later forecasts will fine tune
these valuables.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     77  61  88  64 /  10  10   0   0
Camden AR         84  61  89  65 /  10   0   0   0
Harrison AR       78  57  87  63 /  10   0   0   0
Hot Springs AR    83  61  89  66 /  10   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR  79  62  88  66 /  10   0   0   0
Monticello AR     78  63  88  66 /  10   0   0   0
Mount Ida AR      83  57  89  65 /  10   0   0   0
Mountain Home AR  78  57  87  63 /  10   0   0   0
Newport AR        77  61  87  65 /  20  10   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     79  61  87  65 /  10   0   0   0
Russellville AR   83  60  89  66 /  10   0   0   0
Searcy AR         77  60  86  64 /  10  10   0   0
Stuttgart AR      77  62  86  66 /  10  10   0   0
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term...COOPER / Long Term...59



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