Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 211758
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1258 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.AVIATION...
THERE WILL BE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS AS ALREADY EVIDENT ON
SATELLITE. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RESUME CLOSER TO SUNSET WITH A
REPEAT OF PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT
AND OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014 /

AVIATION...

OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS
MORNING THOUGH AREAS OF MVFR CLOUDS AND FOG...WITH ISOLATED IFR FOG
AREAS HAVE ALSO FORMED. THESE AREAS WILL BE NEAR ALL TAF SITES.
AFTER SUNRISE THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BY MID
MORNING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING...THEN
BECOMING E TO SE AT 5 TO 10 MPH. (59)

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

ONCE AGAIN...TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY TODAY...AS MOISTURE IN THE
FORM OF FOG REMAINS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE STATE. EVEN WITH
UNDERCUTTING GUIDANCE YESTERDAY...TEMPERATURES DID NOT WARM AS
MUCH AS FORECAST...AND BASED ON THIS TREND FROM THE PAST FEW
DAYS...HAVE ONCE AGAIN GONE BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE. THERE WILL STILL
BE A WARM UP TODAY...WITH MOST AREAS IN THE MID 80S TO THE LOWER
90S...OR A LITTLE CLOSER TO NORMAL.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL NUDGE INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS
TUESDAY...BUT UPPER LOW ALONG GULF COAST WILL MOVE WEST UNDERNEATH
THE APPROACHING RIDGE. WHILE NOT EXPECTING RAINFALL WITH THIS
FEATURE TUESDAY...IT MAY GIVE US ENOUGH CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST TO SUPPRESS SOME HEATING. HIGHS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL
BE CLOSE TO NORMAL...AND WITH INCREASED MOISTURE...HEAT INDEX
READINGS WILL APPROACH 100 DEGREES.

MODELS ARE SHOWING DIFFERENCES IN TIMING FOR FRONT MOVING INTO
REGION WEDNESDAY. WITH UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST BRINGING MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION...HAVE STARTED SMALL RAIN CHANCES IN THE
MORNING...BUT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON. WITH THE MOISTURE...HEAT INDEX READINGS WILL LIKELY CLIMB
ABOVE 100 DEGREES...AND WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.

THERE IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL
MOVE...WITH MODELS BEING MORE PROGRESSIVE FOR THURSDAY. DID INCREASE
RAIN CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND KEPT ACROSS THE SOUTH
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF A LITTLE FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL HAVE THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED OVER THE U.S. FOUR CORNERS AREA...WITH A DEEP UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL SET UP A NW UPPER FLOW INTO THE
REGION AND ALLOW SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO REACH
AR. FRIDAY WILL SEE THE FRONT NEAR THE AR AND MO STATE LINE WITH
SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN THE NW UPPER FLOW POSSIBLY MOVING INTO AR.
THE FORECAST WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN TO
EASTERN AR. SATURDAY THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT MORE NORTHWARD
AND ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS SEEN IN MODEL RUNS TO BRING A
MCS INTO THE REGION. A CHANCE OF CONVECTION IS IN THE FORECAST. ON
SUNDAY THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SAG INTO AR...AND
WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY ALOFT...A CHANCE OF CONVECTION IS KEPT IN THE
FORECAST. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION OF
THE UPPER SHORT WAVE ENERGY...AND ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE MADE WITH
LATER MODEL RUNS. TEMPERATURES WILL OVERALL BE BELOW NORMAL VALUES
ESPECIALLY OVER THOSE AREAS THAT SEE CLOUDS AND RAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     88  64  92  70 /   0   0   0  10
CAMDEN AR         88  66  94  70 /   0   0  10   0
HARRISON AR       88  65  92  69 /   0   0   0  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    88  67  92  71 /   0   0  10   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  87  68  93  72 /   0   0  10   0
MONTICELLO AR     87  67  94  70 /   0   0  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      88  62  94  67 /   0   0   0  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  89  64  93  69 /   0   0   0  10
NEWPORT AR        88  64  92  70 /   0   0  10   0
PINE BLUFF AR     88  67  91  70 /   0   0  10   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   89  66  94  70 /   0   0   0  10
SEARCY AR         86  63  91  68 /   0   0  10   0
STUTTGART AR      86  67  91  71 /   0   0  10   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...61




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