Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 271939
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
239 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
COLD FRONT IS MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE STATE AS WE SPEAK.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE FRONT ADVANCES SOUTHWARD. ISOLATED STRONG STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
PRESENT...WITH WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. ANY STRONGER STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL. HOWEVER...OVERALL
STORM COVERAGE APPEARS TO BE ISOLATED/SCATTERED AT BEST.

BY MONDAY MORNING THE FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING INTO LOUISIANA. ANY
LINGERING PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END DURING THE DAY. A COOLER
AIRMASS WILL ENTER THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT AS NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT SETS UP. BY LATE TUESDAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING TO THE WEST WILL ACT IN CONCERT WITH A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING DOWN IN THE MEAN FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW SHOWERS/
STORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTHWEST AND SPREAD SOUTHEAST ON
WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.
THIS WILL HOLD TRUE PARTICULARLY ON WEDNESDAY...AS THE COOL
AIRMASS...CLOUD COVER AND ANY RAINFALL ACT TO SUPPRESS
TEMPERATURES EVEN FURTHER. IT IS QUITE LIKELY THAT A FEW LOCATIONS
IN THE NORTH AND WEST MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE 70S THAT DAY.
&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND AN UPPER LOW
WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY...PROVIDING NORTHWEST FLOW TO
ARKANSAS.

THURSDAY A FRONT WILL BE STALLED ACROSS TEXAS INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. MODELS INDICATE SOME OVERRUNNING COULD TAKE PLACE AND WITH A
SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP. KEPT RAIN CHANCES FOR THURSDAY...DISSIPATING INTO
FRIDAY. ANOTHER WEAKER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY AND
EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL
KEEP NEXT WEEKEND DRY AT THIS TIME AS DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE STATE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE ENTIRE LONG
TERM PERIOD.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     64  86  62  84 /  30   0   0   0
CAMDEN AR         69  92  66  87 /  30  20  10   0
HARRISON AR       63  83  59  83 /  20   0   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    71  89  65  86 /  30  10   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  70  88  65  85 /  30  10   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     72  90  67  86 /  30  20  10   0
MOUNT IDA AR      69  89  63  85 /  30  10   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  64  84  59  85 /  20   0   0   0
NEWPORT AR        66  86  62  82 /  30   0   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     71  89  65  83 /  30  10   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   68  88  62  86 /  30  10   0   0
SEARCY AR         66  87  63  86 /  30  10   0   0
STUTTGART AR      70  87  63  82 /  30  10   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...57 / LONG TERM...51



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