Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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983
FXUS64 KLZK 022043
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
243 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
PRETTY POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER EASTERN KANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH ATTENDANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING DOWN INTO
THE MID SOUTH REGION CLOSE TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. BEHIND THE
FRONT...THE WIND SHIFT HAS LAGGED. BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...
ONE COULD ARGUE FOR THE PRESENCE OF A SECONDARY FRONT OR BOUNDARY EXTENDING
DOWN INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF NORTH TEXAS/SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA.

VERY DRY AIR BETWEEN THE BOUNDARIES HAS ALLOWED FOR THINGS TO MIX
OUT PRETTY WELL...WITH READINGS IN THE 60S TO MID 70S OVER MUCH OF
THE STATE. HIGH TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD OVER THE WEST HAS MADE FOR
BORDERLINE RED FLAG CONDITIONS IN THOSE AREAS. WILL LET THE
WARNING CONTINUE UNTIL AFTER SUNSET...AS WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SECONDARY BOUNDARY.

COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM...WITH TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MOSTLY STAYING IN THE 40S...AND LOWS MUCH
CLOSER TO OR A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS FRIDAY AND MOVE EAST SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THE RIDGE IN THE WEST REMAINS STATIONARY. AN UPPER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THEN DROPS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND INTO THE GREAT
LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL SET UP A NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT AND BRING COLDER AIR OUT OF CANADA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ARKANSAS MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING COLDER
AIR TO THE REGION AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW TO MAINLY THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE STATE
THROUGH MONDAY BUT MUCH COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE BY
TUESDAY.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RED FLAG WARNING WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 00Z. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SECONDARY SURFACE BOUNDARY THIS EVENING...
AND HUMIDITY INCREASES.

MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE NOTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE THE 30TH
PERCENTILE.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     36  47  27  47 /   0   0   0   0
CAMDEN AR         39  53  29  52 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       32  39  24  45 /   0   0   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    36  48  28  50 /   0   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  37  49  30  49 /   0   0   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     42  53  31  50 /  10   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      33  47  26  50 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  34  42  25  46 /   0   0   0   0
NEWPORT AR        38  47  27  46 /   0   0   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     39  50  30  48 /  10   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   35  47  27  49 /   0   0   0   0
SEARCY AR         35  48  27  48 /   0   0   0   0
STUTTGART AR      37  48  30  47 /  10   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-
BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-
DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-
LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-
POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-
WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.


RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BOONE-JOHNSON-
LOGAN-MARION-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-PIKE-POLK-POPE-SCOTT-SEARCY-YELL.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...57 / LONG TERM...51



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