Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 160516 AAB
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1116 PM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Updated to include the 06Z aviation discussion below...

&&

.AVIATION...

Expect VFR conditions through the period...with light winds
overnight. Winds will increase on Thu from the SW...with some
gusts approaching 20 kts.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 233 PM CST Wed Feb 15 2017)

SHORT TERM...Today Through Friday

A strong upper ridge currently over the western U.S. will move
east over the next several days. Northwest flow aloft will
continue over Arkansas through Thursday. The ridge moves into the
Plains Thursday night and the ridge axis will be over Arkansas on
Friday. An upper low over Texas will move across north Texas
during the day Friday and bring additional moisture and clouds to
Arkansas.

Expect a gradual warming trend through the short term period.
High temperatures are anticipated in the lower to mid 60s
Thursday and mid to upper 60s Friday. No rain is expected.

LONG TERM...Friday Night Through Wednesday

If you`re looking for any kind of return to winter in the long term,
you`re in the wrong part of the country. At this point, you may be
in the wrong part of the world.

Anyway, a closed off upper low and associated negatively tilted
trough will be moving across the area Friday night and Saturday.
This will provide some upper support to sustain some showers and
maybe a few storms. However, there will not be much in the way of
deep-layer moisture return, which should keep coverage scattered at
best.

On Sunday, ridging will quickly pass through the region ahead of
another cutoff upper low approaching from Mexico or the desert
southwest. This particular system should begin to affect the area by
late Monday. At the same time, surface low pressure will pass to the
south of the state, with the systems nearly in phase with each
other. Amplified ridging to the east should keep the systems moving
fairly slow, so expect associated cloud cover and rainfall to
continue through the end of the period. If the systems were a little
further northward, heavy rainfall would become more of a
possibility. However, with the expected track, northeast winds will
draw in drier air, significantly decreasing the potential.

Again, with airmasses here lately being of a gulf or Pacific source,
temperatures will remain above average.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Aviation...62



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