Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 290249
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
849 PM CST Mon Nov 28 2016

.UPDATE...
Cloud cover continues to hang on in parts of northeast, central
and south Arkansas. With ceilings continuing to lower, added
patchy fog to the forecast for overnight. The cold front is just
entering northwest Arkansas with the drier air behind it. Expect
patchy fog to develop this evening and overnight. The low clouds
and fog will not dissipate until the dry air is able to push it
out. The additional cloud cover will slow the temperature fall
overnight. Expect them to fall but slower than what was in the
forecast.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 544 PM CST Mon Nov 28 2016
)

AVIATION...
The cold front is just now entering northwest Arkansas and the
rain has exited the eastern part of the state. Clearing is taking
place currently, though low clouds will hang in the southeast for
a bit. Expect some high clouds to move across the area overnight.
Patchy fog will be possible tonight. Expect VFR to MVFR conditions
through the period.

PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 222 PM CST Mon Nov 28 2016
)

SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Wednesday

Showers and a few thunderstorms moved through the state a bit
earlier than advertised...and while temperatures warmed into the mid
60`s with dewpoints also reaching the 60`s...severe weather did not
develop. Most locations in the state received about an inch of
rain...with a few locations along the Interstate 30/US 67 corridor
received over two inches of rain.

Cold front is forecast to make it through the state this evening
with winds remaining slightly up. Overnight low temperatures cooled
into the upper 30`s to upper 40`s.

Tuesday a secondary front will move through the state before
stalling to the southeast of Arkansas. A surface low will form and
ride along the front bringing another round of precipitation chances
to southeast portions of the state. The best chances will remain to
the southeast of Arkansas...but did increase POP`s across southeast
portions of the state Tuesday night.

High temperatures will be noticeable cooler behind the secondary
front and high temperatures on Wednesday will only be in the upper
40`s to lower 60`s.

LONG TERM...Wednesday Night Through Monday Night

Models all continue to show a progressive pattern in place with rain
chances returning to the forecast for the weekend. However,
significant differences exist between the individual solutions
as the period progresses.

Models are in good enough agreement initially that a blend of the
solutions will be used. However, late in the period the GFS has
another widespread and possible significant chance of rain on Monday
while the ECMWF shows pretty much nothing going on. Will definitely
downplay the rain chances for now and go more towards the ECMWF.

Period initiates with broad troughing over the majority of the
nation and overall quiet and cool conditions across the mid south. A
trough over the northern Rockies will dig to the south with a new
storm system forming over the southwest United States. As the system
digs to the south/east, low pressure should form close to the Texas
Gulf Coast on Saturday. The system is expected to track toward the
Tennessee Valley through Sunday night bringing precipitation to the
area.

Once that initial wave moves through, GFS develops another slug of
rain with the ECMWF remaining dry and a wait and see approach will
be taken. Temperatures will average a few degrees of where they
should be for early December.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

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