Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44
000
FXUS64 KLZK 151138 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...Update
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
535 AM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

.Aviation...

Overall MVFR with areas of IFR ceilings with fog will start the
forecast today. Also, an area of light rain was over northern AR and
will move northeast. Drizzle was seen in many other locations.
Through the day, light rain or showers will be seen over northern
AR, while patchy light rain or drizzle will be seen elsewhere. Winds
will be light from the northeast to east at 2 to 7 mph, or light and
variable. Winds will become northeast to southeast at 4 to 9 mph
through the day. (59)

&&

.Prev Discussion.../ Issued 331 AM CST Sun Jan 15 2017/
.DISCUSSION...

Main concerns in this forecast cycle are chances of rain today
through Tuesday, the strong to severe storm threat and heavy rain
risk Monday to Tuesday with possible some flooding, and a
temperature forecast. Dense fog is present this morning over much
of AR, and a dense fog advisory is in effect through 9am CST.

On the surface map, the cold front was nearly stationary over
northern LA with a northeast wind flow into AR. The surface high
pressure was to the north, and the colder air again has saturated
the atmosphere and low ceilings and dense fog had formed over much
of AR. Temperatures were in the 30s north, the 40s central, while
the 40s to some 50s over the south. An area of light rain was over
northwest to northern AR, and was moving northeast. Aloft, the upper
ridging was over the eastern back to the southern Plains and has set
up a southwest flow, and shortwave energy was moving over northern
parts of AR and to the north.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today Through Monday Night

The low clouds and fog will hold for much of the morning with
light winds and a very moist atmosphere over AR. Most of the rain
today will be focused over northwest and northern AR. and have
kept highest chance over that area. Rain amounts will generally be
less than one inch, as models show lower amounts of shortwave
energy over the region than Saturday. Temperatures will be warmer
today with the 40s to near 50 over northern AR, while the 50s to
near 60 central to 60s south. Sunday night, fog and low clouds
will again be seen but should be less than Sunday morning with a
bit more southeast wind flow, with lows in the 40s to lower 50s
across the state. The chance of rain will increase in the west as
the upper system approaches from the west. The highest in the west
and the lowest in the east. Also added isolated thunder to far
western areas. Monday will see a significant increase in the
chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms. The strong upper
shortwave system moves across OK to MO, while lift pulls across
the region. A cold front will gradually move across AR later
Monday and pushes east by Tuesday morning. Isolated strong to
severe storms my develop with the upper system on Monday, with
strong winds the main threat. SPC has a marginal risk over the
southern half of AR. Also, heavier rain will be see with the
system and localized rain amounts of 1 to 3 inches may develop and
localized flooding to some flash flooding may be possible.
Otherwise, temperatures will warm on Monday to well above normal
values, then cool on Tuesday behind the front.

&&

.LONG TERM...Tuesday Through Saturday

A cold front will be pushing east of the state at the start of the
long term period...with rain chances decreasing from NW to SE by
late on Tue. Cooler conditions will be seen behind this front for
Tue night into Wed...but rain chances will increase once again for
Wed into Thu as another upper shortwave trough moves east over the
state.

This next storm system will be stronger...and pass further south
over AR than the system early in the week. However...the threat for
any SVR Wx may stay south of AR due to the limited time for moisture
return ahead of this mid week trough. Even so...some strong storms
may be seen across some portion of the region. This storm system
will then exit the region by Fri morning...but yet another upper
wave will be approaching late in the forecast. However...the main
influence of this last system will be felt beyond this forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     48  45  64  48 /  30  30  80  60
Camden AR         67  57  69  54 /  20  30  70  70
Harrison AR       50  47  61  41 /  40  60  70  30
Hot Springs AR    58  52  64  48 /  20  40  80  60
Little Rock   AR  54  51  66  51 /  20  30  80  70
Monticello AR     67  56  69  60 /  10  20  50  70
Mount Ida AR      58  53  66  46 /  20  50  80  50
Mountain Home AR  47  45  60  43 /  40  50  80  40
Newport AR        48  46  65  51 /  20  20  80  70
Pine Bluff AR     59  53  67  56 /  10  20  70  70
Russellville AR   54  50  63  45 /  20  50  80  50
Searcy AR         50  48  66  50 /  20  20  80  70
Stuttgart AR      55  52  66  54 /  20  20  70  70
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning FOR Arkansas-
Baxter-Boone-Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-Cleveland-Conway-
Dallas-Desha-Drew-Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-
Independence-Izard-Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Lincoln-Logan-
Lonoke-Marion-Monroe-Montgomery-Newton-Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-
Pope-Prairie-Pulaski-Saline-Scott-Searcy-Sharp-Stone-Van Buren-
White-Woodruff-Yell.

&&

$$

Short Term...59 / Long Term...62



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.