Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 011133 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
630 AM CDT WED JUL 01 2015

.AVIATION...

OVERALL VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAINLY MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM OVER THE REGION. THIS MORNING
A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN TO NE AR...WITH
ISOLATED MVFR CEILINGS WITH STORMS. WINDS WILL BE S TO SW AT 5 TO 10
MPH THIS MORNING BECOMING 7 TO 18 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 MPH.
ALSO THIS AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING...ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE
SEEN OVER MUCH OF AR...WITH ISOLATED MVFR CEILINGS WITH STORMS. USED
VCSH OR VCTS TO START WHILE A TEMPO GROUP AT KBPK THIS MORNING. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY TEXT

FLOW ALOFT REMAINS PREDOMINATELY FROM THE NW OVER THE REGION...WHICH
WILL BE SENDING SEVERAL UPPER WAVES SE OVER THE STATE IN THE COMING
DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR PRECIP IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
ENTIRE SHORT TERM PERIOD FOR AT LEAST SOME PORTION OF THE CWA...

CONVECTION IS ONGOING ACROSS CENTRAL MO EARLY THIS MORNING AS ONE
SUCH UPPER WAVE IS DROPPING SE OVER MO. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
CONTINUE TO DROP SE...WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE
ACTIVITY DROPS FROM CENTRAL MO INTO SRN AND SERN MO...AND EVENTUALLY
INTO PORTIONS OF NERN AR LATER THIS MORNING. LOOKS LIKE THE MAJORITY
OF THIS CONVECTION WILL REMAIN NE OF THE CWA...BUT DO THINK SOME
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NERN AND EVEN SOME
COUNTIES FURTHER WEST ALONG THE MO BORDER. AS A RESULT...THIS IS
WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS REMAIN THIS MORNING. POPS WILL REMAIN UP
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ALSO AS ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT FURTHER SW
COULD BE SEEN ALONG ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT COULD INTERACT WITH
THE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS FURTHER SW. BECAUSE OF THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS
EXPECTED...SOME STORMS COULD BECOME SVR...WITH MAINLY A DAMAGING
WIND THREAT. DO THINK SOME LARGE HAIL COULD BE SEEN AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE
IN THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS.

ANOTHER UPPER WAVE WILL DROP SE OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH MORE SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE. HIGHEST POPS
TONIGHT WILL AGAIN BE ACROSS THE NRN AND NERN COUNTIES. SOME
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA COULD STILL BE SEEN FURTHER SOUTH AND
WEST...MAINLY AS A RESULT OF AFTERNOON HEATING. CHANCES FOR PRECIP
WILL INCREASE FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST BY LATE THU INTO FRI AS A MORE
POTENT UPPER WAVE MOVES OVER AR...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY INCREASING CWA WIDE. WILL KEEP POPS UP INTO THE
WEEKEND AS MORE UPPER WAVES PASS OVER THE STATE. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY BE SEEN IN THE COMING DAYS...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE
WEEK AS SOME AREAS SEE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHRA/TSRA. MAY NEED TO
CONSIDER A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN THE COMING DAYS AS LOCATION AND
TIMING DETAILS BECOME MORE CLEAR OVER TIME LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE UNSETTLED WITH CHANCES OF CONVECTION
ALMOST EVERY DAY. AN UPPER NW FLOW AND OVERALL UPPER LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH WILL SET UP ACROSS THE REGION...WITH UPPER SHORT WAVE ENERGY
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AND PRODUCE CONVECTION. TIMING
OF THE UPPER ENERGY WILL BE TOUGH TO FINE TUNE...BUT FORECAST DOES
HAVE SOME CHANCE OF CONVECTION EACH DAY. ON TUESDAY A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES AR FROM THE NORTH...AND CONVECTION CHANCES WILL
INCREASE OVER NORTHERN AR. AFTERNOON HEATING INSTABILITY WILL ALSO
HELP CONVECTION POTENTIAL IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. SHORT
WAVE MOVEMENT MAY BE MORE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF AR...AND
THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF CONVECTION WILL BE OVER THAT REGION. NORTHERN
AR COULD ALSO SEE HEAVY RAIN OVER A SEVERAL DAY PERIOD WITH THE
EXPECTED MOVEMENT OF STORM COMPLEXES...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING...
POSSIBLE ELEVATED RIVER AND FLASH FLOODING MAY BE SEEN. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AROUND NORMAL VALUES...EXCEPT THOSE AREAS THAT RECEIVE MORE
RAIN...WITH TEMPERATURES A BIT LOWER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     89  75  89  71 /  40  50  50  50
CAMDEN AR         92  75  93  75 /  20  20  20  40
HARRISON AR       89  73  87  68 /  40  40  50  50
HOT SPRINGS AR    92  75  92  74 /  20  20  20  40
LITTLE ROCK   AR  93  76  93  75 /  20  20  30  50
MONTICELLO AR     92  76  93  75 /  20  20  20  40
MOUNT IDA AR      90  74  90  74 /  20  20  20  40
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  88  73  89  69 /  50  50  50  50
NEWPORT AR        89  74  88  72 /  50  50  50  50
PINE BLUFF AR     91  75  92  74 /  20  20  20  40
RUSSELLVILLE AR   93  74  92  72 /  20  20  40  50
SEARCY AR         92  75  91  72 /  30  30  40  50
STUTTGART AR      91  75  91  73 /  20  20  30  50
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...62 / LONG TERM...59







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