Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 261746
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1246 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.AVIATION...
UPPER HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BE CENTERED OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. HOT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER ARKANSAS WITH
SCATTERED CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP IN THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON...DISSIPATING BY MID EVENING.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

AVIATION...

SOME PATCHY FOG WAS SEEN THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE HRS. OTHERWISE...DOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA COULD BE
SEEN THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF TAFS DUE TO
LOW PROBABILITIES AND LACK OF CONFIDENCE ON WHERE ACTIVITY WILL
DEVELOP.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 458 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

THE FORECAST IN THE NEAR TERM IS PRETTY STRAIGHTFORWARD GIVEN
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. UNDER
THE HIGH...WILL CONTINUE WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NOT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISOLATED...
AND MAINLY DURING THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THE COMBINATION OF HEAT/HUMIDITY WILL CREATE HEAT INDEX VALUES
HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A HEAT ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE REGION
TODAY...AND FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE ON
MONDAY.

TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE HIGH WILL RETROGRADE TOWARD
THE ROCKIES. CLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL DRIVE A COLD
FRONT INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. DATA IS NOT SHOWING MUCH
PRECIPITATION AROUND THE FRONT...BUT STILL EXPECTTING ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

IT LOOKS SOMEWHAT COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT...AND THAT TAKES US
TO THE LONG TERM.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA AT THE START OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD...BRINGING COOLER AND MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS TO
THE STATE FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SOME CHANCES FOR
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE SEEN INITIALLY AS THE FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS
CENTRAL TO SRN SECTIONS OF THE STATE...BUT NRN SECTIONS OF THE STATE
MAY REMAIN DRY WITH THIS FROPA. HAVE BEST POPS ACROSS THE SRN HALF
OF THE CWA FOR THU AFTERNOON...THEN POPS WILL DECREASE FOR THU NIGHT
AND ESPECIALLY FRI AS THE DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE STATE. IN
FACT...THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT 50S DEWPTS COULD BE SEEN BY
LATE THIS WEEK. THIS WILL BE A WELCOMED CHANGE FROM THE 70S TO EVEN
LOW 80S DEWPTS SEEN RECENTLY. HAVE NOT DROPPED DEWPTS THAT FAR
YET...BUT HAVE TRENDED DOWNWARD GIVEN MED RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUALLY SHOWING THIS SCENARIO THE PAST FEW DAYS. EXPECT POPS
TO REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD...AND TEMPS SHOULD
REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     77  96  76  96 /  10  10  10  10
CAMDEN AR         77 100  76 100 /  10  10  10  10
HARRISON AR       74  94  78  94 /  10  10  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    78  99  79  99 /  10  10  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  79  99  78  99 /  10  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     78  99  79  99 /  10  10  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      76  98  76  98 /  10  10  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  75  95  75  95 /  10  10  10  10
NEWPORT AR        77  97  77  97 /  10  10  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     78  99  77  99 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   77  99  76  99 /  10  10  10  10
SEARCY AR         76  98  75  98 /  10  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      77  98  78  98 /  10  10  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR ARKANSAS-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-
CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-GARLAND-
GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-LONOKE-
MONROE-OUACHITA-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SHARP-WHITE-WOODRUFF.


HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BAXTER-BOONE-
CONWAY-FULTON-IZARD-JOHNSON-LOGAN-MARION-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-PERRY-
PIKE-POLK-POPE-SCOTT-SEARCY-STONE-VAN BUREN-YELL.

&&

$$


AVIATION...51


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