Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 141151 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated for Aviation
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
446 AM CST Tue Nov 14 2017

.AVIATION...
Clouds will continue increasing and thickening today, with
scattered showers possible over the northwest half of Arkansas.
While VFR conditions will be prevalent, low clouds/MVFR conditions
will be noted in some areas north and west of Little Rock this
afternoon and evening. Winds will be east/southeast at 3 to 7 mph
today, and light southeast tonight. (46)
&&

.SHORT TERM...Today Through Thursday
High pressure will continue exiting toward the Ohio Valley and
New England today. Surface winds will become more southeast, and
moisture will slowly increase.

Looking aloft, a nearly zonal flow will be noted north of a ridge
of high pressure in Mexico. A weak ripple in the flow will go by
to the north today, and that will result in isolated to scattered
showers over northern and western Arkansas.

Later tonight/Wednesday, a weak cold front will arrive from the
Plains. The front will trigger scattered to numerous showers and
a few thunderstorms, especially over northern and central sections
of the state.

Through Wednesday, while rain is likely, amounts will not be
impressive. Less than a tenth of an inch of rain is expected
over southern Arkansas, with tenth to quarter inch totals farther
north. There could be quarter to three quarter inch reports toward
the Missouri border.

The front will push toward the Louisiana border by Thursday, and
precipitation should be more spotty given no significant systems
to interact with aloft.

As far as temperatures, readings will be at/a little below
average during the daytime, and above average at night.
&&

.LONG TERM...Thursday Night Through Monday
Remnant frontal boundary will be positioned roughly west-to-east
across central AR to begin the period. As a surface ridge invof the
southern Great Lakes and OH River Valley slides east, surface flow
locally will veer to the south and the frontal boundary will lift
north as a warm front on Friday. Weak impulses aloft in zonal flow
will offer marginal lift with the best chances of rain/iso. thunder
across northern AR. Meanwhile, a large upper trough will begin
traversing the western states and eventually emerge into the Plains
early in the weekend with a stronger cold front in tow.

Uncertainty remains high concerning the weekend system with global
models continuing to offer drastically different solutions, most
notably with respect to timing and large-scale synoptic features.
That said, the GFS has trended some toward the ECMWF, although the
ECMWF also continues to slow the progression of this system.
Additionally, the last few runs of the ECMWF show a progressively
weaker upper trough that lags the surface trough/cold front.
Offering specific details at this point seems increasingly futile
given large degree of peristent uncertainty.

For this forecast cycle, going with an inreasing surface pressure
gradient across the south-central and central U.S. Friday with
breezy south winds and increasing warm air and moisture advection
into the region. Instability still looks limited, but assuming
strong upper dynamics are present more in line with the GFS
solution, any organized frontal convection that develop could pose a
damaging wind threat. Again, nailing down specifics on the magnitude
or areal coverage of any severe risk is too uncertain attm, but the
potential remains and will need refinement one way or another as
model solutions become better aligned. Tried to give a hearty nod to
the GFS and nominal blended guidance, but skewed heavily to the
ECMWF, particularly for precip and frontal wind shift timing Friday
into Saturday. Not introducing likely or higher PoPs for now, but
the best probabilities should remain across the northern and then
eastern half of AR as the front pushes through.

After the front clears the area sometime late Saturday, surface
ridging commences in the Central Plains with high pressure gradually
overspreading AR by Sunday. The bulk of the cold air will stay
north, but temps fall to near average by the end of the weekend.
Clouds will be scarce given the large-scale subsidence in place, so
expecting plenty of sunshine and a slow increase in temps Monday as
southerly flow returns. Models then diverge depicting the eastward
progression of the ridge with the possibility of more unsettled
weather just beyond the end of the period.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     57  47  60  45 /  20  10  70  10
Camden AR         66  50  69  53 /  10   0  20  30
Harrison AR       55  48  60  41 /  40  40  80  10
Hot Springs AR    59  51  66  52 /  30  10  40  30
Little Rock   AR  60  49  64  50 /  20  10  40  30
Monticello AR     65  48  67  53 /   0   0  20  20
Mount Ida AR      59  51  66  52 /  30  10  50  30
Mountain Home AR  54  47  61  41 /  40  40  80   0
Newport AR        58  47  60  45 /  10  10  60  10
Pine Bluff AR     63  49  66  51 /  10   0  30  30
Russellville AR   56  49  62  48 /  40  10  60  20
Searcy AR         59  46  61  46 /  20  10  60  20
Stuttgart AR      62  48  64  52 /  10  10  40  30
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term...46 / Long Term...COOPER



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