Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 130905
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
305 AM CST Sat Jan 13 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Arctic high pressure continues to sag gradually south across the
area...with yet another cold day in store. Highs should be similar
to yesterday...with upper 20s near the KS/MO borders to upper 30s
along the Red River.

A rather vigorous clipper-like wave is progged to swing through
the region on Sunday. Models are in good agreement showing a
saturated 700-500mb layer along with decent lift...so a brief
period of light snow appears possible mainly Sunday morning across
parts of far northeast OK into northwest AR. Snowfall amounts...if
any...should be minimal.

Yet another Arctic front is scheduled to sweep through on
Monday. Some light post-frontal snow appears possible across parts
of northeast OK and northwest AR...although better chances of
wintry precipitation may develop Monday night across southeast OK
into western AR along a zone of strengthening frontogenetical
forcing. Not out of the question that accumulating snow may
occur...although have kept amounts generally less than an inch for
now.

The Arctic airmass will remain in place for a few days...with
single digit lows likely across parts of the forecast area both
Tuesday and Wednesday mornings.

Extended models continue to struggle with the next upper system
for late week. The GFS and GEM bring the system through OK while
the ECMWF remains farther south across TX. We`ll continue to keep
the latter half of next week dry for now given the poor model
consistency.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   30  17  43  27 /  10  10  10   0
FSM   35  21  42  25 /  10  10  10   0
MLC   35  17  46  32 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   29  15  44  22 /  10  20  20   0
FYV   30  15  36  25 /  10  20  20   0
BYV   29  15  34  28 /  10  20  30   0
MKO   32  17  43  26 /  10  10   0   0
MIO   27  16  36  25 /  10  20  30   0
F10   32  17  45  29 /   0  10   0   0
HHW   39  21  45  29 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....18



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