Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 172034
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
334 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SLOW MOVING VORTICITY MAXIMA ALONG THE RED RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO
AID SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SE OK / WESTERN AR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS ACROSS FAR
NW AR ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE TO SUPPORT A LIMITED RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER PRIMARILY THROUGH MID EVENING.

THE TREND FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL PUSH NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...HOWEVER IT IS LIKELY TO REMAIN NORTH ALL THE WHILE
RISING HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

LATEST DATA IS SOMEWHAT LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE FOR
LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND THOUGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD FRONT SHOWS UP IN THE EXTENDED DATA TOWARD
THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK...BUT WE WILL JUST HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE IF
THIS PANS OUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   72  96  74  99 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   73  94  73  96 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   72  94  74  95 /  10   0   0   0
BVO   67  95  71  97 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   66  90  68  92 /  20   0   0   0
BYV   67  91  69  95 /  20   0   0  10
MKO   70  94  72  96 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   68  93  71  96 /   0   0  10   0
F10   71  94  72  95 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   71  94  72  94 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....07





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