Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 182103
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
403 PM CDT THU AUG 18 2016

.DISCUSSION...
This afternoon mid level southwesterly flow and southerly low
level flow continued to transport moisture across Eastern Oklahoma
and Northwest Arkansas. In response to the abundant moisture
within scattered areas of warm advection...scattered rain showers
and isolated thunderstorms continued to push northeast over much
of the CWA today. These showers and isolated thunderstorms will
remain possible into the evening hours...with an expected
weakening trend. Additional precip chances will continue overnight
as the LLJ increases.

Thunderstorm chances increase Friday as a longwave trof is
progged to drop southeast out of Canada into the Plains
approaching the CWA. A trailing associated strong cold
front...for August standards...will near the CWA Friday night...move
into Northeast Oklahoma Saturday morning and into Northwest
Arkansas during the day Saturday. The approaching cold front
interacting with 30-40+KT LLJ will allow for showers and
thunderstorms to become likely Friday night into Saturday ahead
of the front. By Saturday afternoon...precip chances should begin
to taper off across Northeast Oklahoma behind the front and exit
with the frontal boundary by early Sunday morning. Enough
instability ahead of the front co-located with the increasing LLJ
could create a limited severe potential...though organized severe
weather is not currently anticipated.

Precip chances continuing through Saturday and cooler/drier air
behind the frontal boundary moving into the CWA Sunday will aid in
keeping daytime temperatures below the seasonal average through
the weekend. Clearing skies...drier air and temps in the low to
mid 80s Sunday will allow for the better of the weekend days for
outdoor activities.

High pressure is forecast moves through the region for the first
part of next week. Behind the high...southerly flow returns Monday
night and Tuesday with increasing low level moisture over the
CWA. Extended model solutions indicate a series of mid/upper
level impulses moving within west southwesterly upper flow
interacting with the moisture will help to return shower and
thunderstorm chances for much of next week. The increase in
moisture and southerly flow at the surface will also help to
increase temps back into the 90s by the middle part of next week.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   71  88  70  84 /  30  40  70  30
FSM   72  85  72  84 /  40  50  50  70
MLC   71  86  71  84 /  30  40  70  70
BVO   69  88  69  81 /  20  30  70  20
FYV   67  82  69  80 /  30  40  50  60
BYV   69  82  69  80 /  20  40  50  60
MKO   70  85  70  84 /  30  40  70  60
MIO   69  86  69  81 /  20  30  70  40
F10   71  86  70  83 /  40  40  70  60
HHW   72  85  73  84 /  30  50  50  70

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....20



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