Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 260951
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
351 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER FLOW IS BACKING ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE DIGGING SYSTEM
NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. THE RESULT IS DEEP-LAYER SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND INCREASING MOISTURE. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW LOW CLOUDS
DEVELOPING BENEATH THE STREAM OF HIGHER CLOUDS. THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS KANSAS IS EXPECTED TO MAKE RATHER SLOW PROGRESS SOUTHEAST
IN THIS SETUP AND WILL LIKELY NOT REACH OSAGE COUNTY UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE TRICKY. IF THE CLOUDS THICKEN AS
EXPECTED THEN TEMPS WILL GENERALLY RISE 10 DEGREES OR LESS AND
STAY IN THE 50S. BUT ANY SIGNIFICANT SUN COULD PUSH READINGS
SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST.

SCATTERED PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP WITH TIME
TODAY...WITH FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN IN THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. ELEVATED INSTABILITY
DEVELOPS AS FAR NORTH AS EXTREME SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA TONIGHT AND AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE.

IT WILL BE A RACE BETWEEN THE ENDING PRECIP AND THE ARRIVAL OF
ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR A BRIEF WINTRY MIX. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT
A LITTLE SLEET OR A LITTLE SNOW COULD MIX WITH RAIN AS IT ENDS IN
FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA VERY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY ON SATURDAY
MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATION WOULD BE
IN FAR NORTHWEST OSAGE COUNTY...BUT GENERALLY NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SEASONABLY COLD WEATHER WILL SETUP BEHIND THE CURRENT SYSTEM AND
PERSIST INTO MID NEXT WEEK.

TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK...AROUND AND JUST AFTER THE FIRST OF
THE YEAR...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM CROSSING THE
MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY WITH THE STORM TRACK OVER OR NEAR EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE CURRENT DATA SUGGESTS THAT
ENOUGH COULD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR AT LEAST SOME WINTER WEATHER
POTENTIAL WITH THE BEGINNING OF THE PRECIPITATION. THE EVENTUAL
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH OF THE REGION GETS
INTO THE WARM SECTOR. OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW AS
EXPECTED FOR A COMPLEX SYSTEM 7 DAYS AWAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   56  38  42  25 /  30  60  20   0
FSM   56  48  48  30 /  20  60  50  10
MLC   56  41  41  27 /  30  60  40   0
BVO   56  34  41  21 /  20  50  10   0
FYV   53  47  47  25 /  20  60  50  10
BYV   55  47  47  27 /  20  50  50  10
MKO   56  40  42  26 /  20  60  40   0
MIO   56  38  40  24 /  20  60  20   0
F10   56  38  42  25 /  20  50  30   0
HHW   56  48  48  30 /  30  70  40  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....08





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