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000
FXUS64 KTSA 290348
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
948 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
COOL FRONT ON SCHEDULE/FORECAST ON TRACK. MINIMAL
GRID CHANGES.  HIGH OF 80 DEGREES TODAY FOR TULSA
ONLY THIRD TIME IN JANUARY SINCE RECORDS BEGAN.
SOME 20 TO 25 DEGREES COOLER THURSDAY THAN TODAY.
GW

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 531 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
COLD FRONT TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT TURNING WINDS
NORTHWESTERLY...WITH WINDS BECOMING GUSTY AFTER SUNRISE. A PERIOD
OF MVFR CEILINGS MAY SKIRT ACROSS FAR NW AR DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY OTHERWISE CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON...INCLUDE THE HIGH FIRE DANGER
THREAT THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...FOLLOWED BY THE CHANCE FOR
MIXED PRECIPITATION STARTING LATE FRIDAY AND PERSISTING INTO
SUNDAY.

UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES...PAIRED WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY VALES WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. A RED
FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6PM. AFTER
SUNSET...TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY DROP...RAISING HUMIDITY
LEVELS...AND ENDING THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING...SHIFTING WINDS
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND LOWERING TEMPERATURES BACK NEAR NORMAL
FOR LATE JANUARY. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
GUSTS AGAIN REACHING BETWEEN 25 AND 30 MILES PER HOUR ACROSS
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP AND DEEPEN OVER
THE SOUTHWEST US OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...DIRECTING MOISTURE
NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STARTING
FRIDAY...MAINLY FALLING AS RAIN AS TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN TOO
WARM FOR ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS SATURDAY MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION WILL THEN SWITCH BACK
OVER TO ALL RAIN DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH AMOUNTS RANGING
BETWEEN A HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF TOTAL LIQUID. AN UPPER LEVEL
WAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL THEN DROP INTO THE AREA EARLY
SUNDAY...DROPPING TEMPERATURES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE SHIFTED
EAST BY THIS TIME...HOWEVER A SWITCH OVER TO A WINTRY MIX OF
RAIN...SLEET...AND SNOW WILL LIKELY OCCUR ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
PRECIPITATION FIELD SUNDAY MORNING INTO EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
IMPACTS AT THIS TIME LOOK MINIMAL...WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS OF SNOW
AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OCCURRING ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END BY LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A PERIOD OF DRY AND SEASONAL WEATHER
PERSISTING THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   43  54  27  48 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   45  57  31  55 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   48  56  31  50 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   38  53  24  48 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   42  52  25  50 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   42  50  27  47 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   44  54  28  50 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   41  51  26  48 /   0   0   0   0
F10   44  54  29  48 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   47  59  32  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21