Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 181727

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1127 AM CST Sat Feb 18 2017



Main aviation concern overnight is fog potential at the eastern
Oklahoma terminals. The fog across the area is likely to be patchy
as opposed to widespread, and as such, will cover the potential
with tempo groups featuring IFR visibilities. Of the Arkansas
terminals, FSM is most likely to see fog, but potential is not
great enough to include at this time. IFR ceilings look likely for
all the terminals for roughly the latter half of the valid TAF
period, as well.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 952 AM CST Sat Feb 18 2017/


Showers ongoing this morning across far east central Oklahoma and
west central Arkansas associated with the upper low in western
Arkansas are on a definite downward swing and should be gone
within the next hour or so. The main changes that appeared in an
earlier update addressed the ongoing activity and another update
will be forthcoming before noon to remove the shower/thunderstorm
potential. Cloudiness will also decrease some from northwest to
southeast through the afternoon, which continues to be well
covered in the going forecast. High temperatures also look good
for now.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 521 AM CST Sat Feb 18 2017/


The 12Z TAF discussion is included below.

MVFR cig potential this morning at all sites. Cigs should scatter
out this afternoon. IFR/MVFR conditions should return after
midnight tonight.


PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 356 AM CST Sat Feb 18 2017/

Radar imagery is showing some light returns across far southeast
Oklahoma...with very light precipitation being observed. This
light rain is associated with upper low currently moving across
eastern OK...with the circulation well represented within wv/sat
animations. Skies will start off mostly cloudy this morning...and
clouds will likely hold down high temperatures a bit. It will
still be above average with highs in the 60s...with the potential
for some locations to jump in the upper 60s to near 70 if enough
breaks occur. There may be a decrease in the cloud cover this
afternoon through early evening before clouds come back overnight.

Sunday will likely be the warmer of the weekend days...with highs
in the 70s. Again...clouds will make the temperature forecast
non-trivial as there is the potential for mid/upper 70s depending
on cloud trends.

Early morning water vapor imagery is sampling the western US
trough...which will move over the southern Rockies by Sunday.
Increasing large scale lift/instability will support rain and
thunderstorms developing Sunday afternoon and evening over the
Southern Plains. The instability axis and dryline will remain
west of eastern Oklahoma during the day Sunday...with the best
chance for thunderstorms after dark Sunday night. The stronger
storms should remain south of Interstate 40. The entire area
will see rain Sunday night with precipitation exiting the area by
Monday afternoon.

The rest of the week looks warm and dry with above normal
temperatures and a windy day expected next Thursday ahead of the next
frontal system.




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