Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 221530
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
1030 AM CDT FRI APR 22 2016

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
Quiet day on tap for eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas, with
surface high pressure atop the region. The forecast looks on track
for today, with above normal temperatures and mostly sunny skies.
No update planned for now.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 AM CDT FRI APR 22 2016/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions will prevail the next 24 hours...with light
north/northwest winds this afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT FRI APR 22 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Quiet weather expected the next couple of days with gradual warm
up through the weekend. Light winds and dry air through tonight
will lead to a pleasant stretch of weather with winds picking up
somewhat out of the south on Saturday.

First in a series of upper level systems will move out of the
Rockies Sunday while passing well to our north. South winds will
increase in response and begin drawing moisture north, however the
main impact from this system in terms of thunderstorms will mainly
be across the central plains. Low chance of thunderstorms late
Sunday and Sunday night will be maintained across northern
sections. This system will push a weak sfc boundary south by
Monday with low chances of storms continuing near the boundary.

Models remain consistent in bringing a stronger, negative-tilt
upper low across the plains by Tuesday, with better quality
moisture in place by that time and a track more supportive of
severe weather farther south into our area. Details still to come,
but given expected degree of instability and deep layer shear, all
modes of severe weather will be possible during the latter half of
the day Tuesday into the evening as well.

Frontal boundary associated with this system will remain across
southeast sections Wednesday with a continued threat for
thunderstorms. The front is expected to push south of the area
Thursday, though latest model data has trended less aggressive
with the southward push of cooler air.

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22



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