Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 162338
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
638 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL AREA TAF SITES THROUGH THE
VALID PERIOD. HOWEVER...DID ADD TEMPO THUNDER FOR A FEW HOURS
THIS EVENING AT KBVO.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
COMPACT WAVE CURRENTLY TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI WITH
ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT EXTENDING FROM NORTHWEST KS THROUGH NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA. A SMALLER SCALE VORTICITY MAX WAS ALSO NOTED ACROSS
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND TRACKING SLOWLY EASTWARD WITHIN THE LARGER
SCALE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
LIGHT PRECIP AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING. FURTHER NORTH...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE LATE EVENING HOURS. AMPLE INSTABILITY AND WEAK SHEAR WILL
SUPPORT A LIMITED RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER.

THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT FURTHER SOUTH ON SUNDAY WHILE
THE SFC BOUNDARY ALSO PUSHES A SLOWLY SOUTHWARD BEFORE STALLING
AND BECOMING LESS DEFINED. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE TROUGH AXIS WILL
BE THE MOST LIKELY REGION FOR AFTERNOON STORM DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER
OVERALL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW.

THE SFC BOUNDARY LOSES DEFINITION WHILE WORKING NORTHWARD ON
MONDAY WHILE TEMPERATURES TREND TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL. LOW
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE RETAINED INTO TUESDAY...BEFORE UPPER
HIGH PRESSURE INTENSIFIES THROUGH THE PLAINS. MID TO LATE NEXT
WEEK WILL FEATURE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT NEAR THE REGION
ALLOWING SEVERAL DAYS OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...10




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