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000
FXUS64 KTSA 082342
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
642 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED NEAR THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR EARLY
THIS EVENING. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE IF STORMS MOVE EAST INTO THE
MLC AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND IF ADDITIONAL STORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SAME AREAS OVERNIGHT. IN THE
SHORT TERM DID NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAF...BUT SHORT TERM TRENDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS FRONT STALLS NEAR THE RED RIVER
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHWARD WITH THE WIND
SHIFT CURRENTLY NEAR A MCALESTER TO FAYETTEVILLE LINE...WITH THE
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR LAGGING FURTHER NORTH. RECENTLY A
DENSE CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE WIND SHIFT HOWEVER FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW A SUBSTANTIAL WARM LAYER ALOFT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
LIMIT ANY STORM POTENTIAL. SHOULD A FEW STORMS DEVELOP...STRONG
INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP NEARER
THE ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE TONIGHT...WITH ALL CONVECTION PUSHING
FURTHER SOUTHWARD NEARER THE RED RIVER TOMORROW.

THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL BECOME ORIENTED MORE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
AS IT RETURNS NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. GOOD
POTENTIAL AN MCS ORIGINATES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND PUSHES
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
THIS SCENARIO WOULD BE THE BEST SHOT OF PRECIP FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
OVERALL TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS THOUGH HUMIDITIES WILL MAKE HEAT INDEX VALUES NOTICEABLE.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY LOOK HOT. UPPER HIGH CENTERS VERY NEAR THE
AREA AND FORECAST DEWPOINTS FALL OFF SLIGHTLY ESPECIALLY WEST OF
HIGHWAY 75. URBAN AREAS WILL ALSO MAINTAIN VERY WARM LOW TEMPS.

RELIEF IS LIKELY TO ARRIVE TOWARD THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE
THE GFS HAS TURNED LESS BULLISH...THIS FORECAST WILL RETAIN THE
TREND CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION AND BRING NOTICEABLY COOLER
TEMPS AND INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...12