


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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985 FXUS64 KTSA 061127 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 627 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1122 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025 - Daily rain and storm chances will continue through the next week with higher chances for the first half of the week. - Organized severe weather is not expected. However, storms will be capable of producing localized heavy rainfall and gusty winds. - Afternoon heat indices will creep up into the 95-100F range toward the latter half of next week, with a front possible by the following weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Sunday) Issued at 1122 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025 Pattern remains similar through Sunday with weak troughing remaining across the local region coincident with a plume of deeper moisture. Guidance does suggest slightly higher coverage of precip Sunday afternoon compared to Saturday especially across NW AR. Temps remain near persistence. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 1122 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025 Upper ridge is forecast to remain centered over the western CONUS through the upcoming week. The local area will remain on the periphery of the ridge influence while also largely displaced from the stronger flow across the central and northern states. Periodic waves will pass to the north with the southern extent of each wave likely increasing daily precip chances locally. Additionally the continued presence of ample moisture and daytime heating amidst an unstable and uncapped airmass will offer another source of daily precip chances. This pattern appear likely to persist through the work week. Temperatures and afternoon heat index values are forecast to remain near seasonal normals. A slightly trend toward warmer and drier conditions is possible by late in the work week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 619 AM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025 Mid and high clouds will be common today, with potential for a brief period of MVFR cigs late this morning/ early afternoon as the mid layer redevelops... particularly in E OK. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast this afternoon and early evening, with the highest potential occurring across NE OK and NW AR. PROB30 groups have been maintained for sites with the highest chance of experiencing reduced vsbys and increased winds from showers/ storms (20-02z). Outside of any direct impacts from thunderstorms, predominantly VFR conditions are likely to prevail for all sites through the period. Winds will generally be light out of the south-southwest this afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 91 73 90 73 / 20 10 30 20 FSM 93 74 93 74 / 20 10 30 10 MLC 90 71 90 72 / 20 10 30 10 BVO 91 70 90 70 / 20 20 20 20 FYV 90 71 89 70 / 30 20 30 20 BYV 89 70 91 69 / 40 20 40 20 MKO 89 71 89 72 / 20 10 30 20 MIO 90 71 89 71 / 40 20 30 20 F10 88 71 88 71 / 20 10 30 20 HHW 91 71 91 71 / 20 0 30 10 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...43