Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 291707
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1207 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 18Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE AT EASTERN OKLAHOMA SITES TUESDAY MORNING.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1034 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
THE ONLY REAL CHANGE IN THE WEATHER FROM YESTERDAY HAS BEEN A
LITTLE PATCHY FOG IN SPOTS THIS MORNING. THIS HAS SLOWED THE
MORNING WARM-UP A BIT IN THOSE AREAS BUT THEY WILL RECOVER
QUICKLY NOW THAT ALL FOG HAS DISSIPATED. OTHERWISE... TODAY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MUCH LIKE THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AND THE FORECAST
HAS THIS HANDLED. NO UPDATE WILL BE NECESSARY THIS MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 556 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
ONCE AGAIN...MVFR VISIBILITY WILL PERSIST EARLY IN THE PERIOD AT
KBVO/KRVS/KFYV/KXNA...WITH BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL OTHERWISE WITH EXCEPTION OF MVFR VISIBILITY AGAIN AT
SAM LOCATIONS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THERE WERE NO MAJOR SURPRISES IN THE DATA THIS MORNING. RIDGING
ALOFT DOWNSTREAM FROM A LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE SYSTEM WILL OPEN UP AND EJECT ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
PLAINS ON TUESDAY AS A SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE IN THE PAC NW. THIS
LEAD SYSTEM WILL FORCE A BOUNDARY DOWN TO NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY...WHERE IT WILL STALL WHILE WE AWAIT THE ARRIVAL
OF THE UPSTREAM SYSTEM. STORMS MAY FIRE AS SOON AS LATE TUESDAY
ALONG THE DRYLINE OUT WEST AND ALONG THE BOUNDARY UP THRU CENTRAL
KS. THE REMNANTS OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY GRAZE PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF TULSA TUESDAY NIGHT.
CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL INCREASE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AS
STORMS FORM ALONG STALLING BOUNDARY OR PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND GROW
UPSCALE WHILE MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO OUR REGION. THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF
ALL SHOW THIS BASIC IDEA. THE BEST SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE WITH
THIS LATE WEDNESDAY ACTIVITY...DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. LAPSE
RATES ALOFT AREN`T AS FAVORABLE FOR BIG HAIL. THE SHEAR IS ONLY
MARGINAL FOR SUPERCELLS...THUS MULTICELLS LOOK MORE
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY GIVEN SHEAR VECTOR ORIENTATION TO THE FOCUSING
BOUNDARIES. THE COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY SURGE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ON THURSDAY AS THE VERY PROGRESSIVE UPSTREAM SYSTEM DIVES DOWN
INTO THE PLAINS. STORMS WILL PROBABLY FIRE ALONG IT AS WELL...WITH
LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL.

THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...LEAVING
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND TO FOLLOW ON A VERY PLEASANT NOTE. THE DRY
AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS NW FLOW
TRANSITIONS TO FLAT SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT. TEMPS WILL MODERATE
RATHER QUICKLY TOWARD MIDWEEK DUE TO INCREASING DOWNSLOPE FLOW
OFF THE ROCKPILE.

LACY

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...06




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