Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 011118
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
618 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR cigs will increase from west to east today ahead of the next
approaching system. Scattered rain will develop this evening and
overnight...so will carry prob groups at all sites between 00z-
12z. will also carry thunder at KMLC and KFSM after 06z as
elevated instability increases across se OK and wrn AR.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

DISCUSSION...
The upper low over Arizona will open up and its remnants will
shear eastward across the plains over the next 24 hours.
Sufficient mid-level moisture will accompany the system for
showers and some thunderstorms to develop in the region late today
and tonight. Point soundings suggest a fair amount of elevated
CAPE will develop tonight in far southeast Oklahoma for
thunderstorms. Additionally the deep-layer shear looks like it
could be sufficient for storm organization and later forecasts may
need to include the mention of an isolated severe storm. The
precipitation will exit our area early Monday.

On Tuesday, a fairly strong short-wave will cross eastern Oklahoma
and northwest Arkansas from the northwest. It appears that this
system will not have enough moisture available to generate
precipitation in our area, but sometimes the precipitation
potential is underestimated with systems dropping in from the
northwest.

An omega block upper-level pattern will develop by mid week across
the country and our area will see rising heights aloft from
Wednesday into Saturday. This is expected to keep the weather
quiet through that period. By late in the next weekend southwest
flow aloft should reach the area.

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...23



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