Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KTSA 032349
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
549 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
COLD FRONT WORKING THROUGH E OK NW AR BY 07Z. RAIN CHANGING
OVER TO FREEZING RAIN THEN MAINLY SLEET. GENERALLY 5 TO 7 HOUR
PERIOD OF SLEET FOLLOWED BY SNOW. WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS...
ESPECIALLY SE OK AND NW AR. CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING FROM NW
LATE IN TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...

ONLY REAL WEATHER ISSUE AT HAND OVER THE COMING WEEK IS THE WINTER
STORM SET TO AFFECT EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

LARGE PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
POURING INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS REGION AHEAD OF A
LARGE UPPER LOW OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA. OBSERVED AND FORECAST
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE AT LEAST 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WITH THIS AMPLE MOISTURE ALREADY IN
PLACE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS...WIDESPREAD
RAIN...SOME OF IT POSSIBLY CONVECTIVE IN NATURE...IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44 AND LARGELY AFTER THE 9 PM
TO MIDNIGHT TIME FRAME TONIGHT...AS THE SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...PRECIPITATION INTENSITY
WILL INCREASE AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A STRONG UPPER JET
MOVES ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A REGION OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. HIGHEST
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE COINCIDENT WITH WHERE THIS GREATER
FORCING SETS UP. THE PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH SWEEPS
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA...PUSHING THE MOISTURE INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.

THE ABOVE ADDRESSES PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND INTENSITY...BUT
WHAT ABOUT PRECIPITATION TYPES? ONE BIG CHANGE TO THE FORECAST
BASED ON THE LATEST DATA AND CURRENT LINE OF THINKING IS THAT THE
COLDEST AIR BEHIND TONIGHTS COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOWER TO ARRIVE
THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT
AREAS FROM FORT SMITH TO HUGO MIGHT NOT FALL BELOW FREEZING UNTIL
LATE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...A GOOD PORTION OF THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO FALL AS RAIN IN
THE FAR SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...IF COLD AIR ARRIVES JUST A COUPLE OF
HOURS SOONER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...FREEZING RAIN AND
ASSOCIATED ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE A BIGGER IMPACT. SLEET/SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE LARGER AS WELL. ALSO...THE COLD AIR SHOULD
DEEPEN FAIRLY QUICKLY...LEAVING ONLY A SMALL TEMPORAL WINDOW IN
MOST AREAS FOR FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATION PRIOR TO TRANSITIONING
TO SLEET AND FINALLY SNOW. SOME HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS /ESPECIALLY MADISON...SOUTHERN CARROLL...AND EASTERN
WASHINGTON COUNTIES/ COULD SEE MORE FREEZING RAIN IMPACT DUE TO
COOLER TEMPERATURES FROM ELEVATION DIFFERENCES. THE SAME EFFECT
COULD IMPACT SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO
SNOW ACROSS EVEN FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT BEFORE ENDING PRIOR TO SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING.

THE COUNTIES THAT HAVE BEEN PUT IN A WINTER STORM WARNING WERE
CHOSEN LARGELY BECAUSE THE COMBINATION OF LOCALLY HIGHER ICE
ACCUMULATIONS...AS WELL AS THE LARGER SLEET/SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...
COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS...ESPECIALLY TO TRAVEL...BUT ALSO
POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF POWER DISRUPTIONS. AS ALLUDED TO
PREVIOUSLY...TERRAIN DIFFERENCES WERE A MAJOR PLAYER IN THOSE
DECISIONS.

FROM THURSDAY ON...THE POLAR JET WILL LARGELY BE FORCED INTO THE
NORTHERN UNITED STATES...LEADING TO QUIET...DRY...AND MORE
IMPORTANTLY...WARMER WEATHER FOR OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS. HIGHS BY
THE END OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE PUSHING 60 IN MOST LOCATIONS...AND
POSSIBLY NEARING 70 BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   28  30  15  34 /  80 100  50  10
FSM   41  43  21  34 /  90 100  90  10
MLC   37  40  19  35 /  80 100  90  10
BVO   24  27  13  35 /  80  90  30  10
FYV   30  32  15  31 /  80 100  70  10
BYV   29  31  14  30 /  80 100  70  10
MKO   33  36  16  33 /  80 100  70  10
MIO   25  28  11  32 /  80 100  40  10
F10   32  34  17  34 /  80 100  70  10
HHW   47  49  23  38 /  80 100  90  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR OKZ049-OKZ075-OKZ076.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-
     OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-
     OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR OKZ053-OKZ073-OKZ074.

AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR ARZ001.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR ARZ002-ARZ010-ARZ011.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT THURSDAY
     FOR ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...21





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.