Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 081118
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
518 AM CST Fri Dec 8 2017

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 400 AM CST Fri Dec 8 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Early this morning upper level northerly flow continued across the
Central U.S. in response to a wave currently moving through South
Texas producing snow and rain over Southern Texas and Louisiana.
To the north...across Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest
Arkansas...surface high pressure was shifting south allowing for
light southerly surface winds to begin returning across the CWA.
Mostly clear skies and light winds underneath the exiting surface
high had helped temperatures to fall into the upper single digits
to the low 20s with wind chill values in the single digits to
around 20 degrees to be common over the CWA.

After a cold start this morning...southwesterly winds should help
to warm temperatures into the 40s for most locations this
afternoon. One limiting factor could be cloud cover ahead of the
next weak surface boundary forecast to move through the region
tonight into Saturday. A shortwave is progged to drop southward
within the upper level northerly flow overnight tonight pushing
the boundary through the CWA with breezy north- northwesterly
winds returning Saturday. The low pressure center is expected to
remain over the Great Lakes region...and with limited moisture
over the CWA...this will keep the frontal passage dry. Temps
Saturday look to not be affected too much with highs again in the
40s possible.

Saturday night the wave over Texas lifts east- northeast and
joins up with the shortwave pushing east- southeast from the
Great Lakes region over the East Coast. This will allow for the
upper level northerly flow to shift eastward...with more of a
downslope flow to develop over the CWA for Sunday into Monday. In
response...westerly surface winds and warmer temperatures in the
50s/low 60s are forecast. The breezy winds Saturday along with
breezy winds and warm temperatures Sunday into Monday combined
with ongoing dry conditions will aid in increasing fire weather
dangers over the region.

The warmer temperatures look to be short lived as another
shortwave is forecast to drop southeast out of Canada pushing
another surface boundary through the region Monday night into
Tuesday. Northerly winds and temperatures back closer to the
seasonal average will be possible through the middle part of next
week. Again...with limited amounts of moisture to work
with...indications continue to show dry conditions continuing
through next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   45  29  48  30 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   44  27  48  27 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   44  27  49  27 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   45  24  47  23 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   40  23  42  22 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   40  25  41  26 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   43  26  47  27 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   42  25  43  25 /   0   0   0   0
F10   45  28  48  29 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   46  30  52  28 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$


AVIATION.....18


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