Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 251703
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Tulsa OK
1203 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.

MVFR ceilings continue at most terminals early this afternoon, but
the general trend at all sites should be for VFR ceilings by mid
afternoon, with a return of MVFR conditions after midnight
tonight. Gusty south winds will diminish some overnight, but the
gustiness will return mid morning tomorrow. Isolated thunderstorms
could affect BVO and the NW AR terminals early tomorrow morning,
but the potential at any one site is below mentionable levels.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 957 AM CDT MON APR 25 2016/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
Skies should remain mostly cloudy through much of the day today,
but a small decrease during the mid to late afternoon should still
result in going forecast temperatures being realized. Any
convective potential continues to look incredibly limited today,
until the overnight anyway, by a substantial cap and little
focusing mechanism. Have made a few tweaks to the temperatures,
with additional changes according to current trends. Update out
soon.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 AM CDT MON APR 25 2016/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MVFR have overspread the TAF sites this morning...although
should see some improvement areawide generally after 18z.
MVFR cigs are expected to redevelop overnight.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CDT MON APR 25 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Forecast for severe weather Tuesday will garner most of the
attention this forecast cycle, and nothing within latest suite of
model guidance has changed the overall forecast confidence level
one way or other. That is a significant outbreak of severe
weather likely to impact parts of the southern and central plains
Tuesday afternoon and evening with all modes possible. Details as
to where the greatest threat exists are no more less clear at this
point, but needless to say everyone is urged to monitor forecasts
closely during the next 36 hours.

In the meantime, low level moisture continues to increase across
the area this morning with south winds continuing. Atmosphere
should become rather unstable this afternoon but strengthening cap
and lack of focus mechanism will likely keep any storm development
at bay. A warm front close to KS/OK border early Tuesday morning
may become focus for some elevated storms over far northeast
portions of the forecast area through Tuesday morning.

Back to the main show. Consensus remains that dry line is
established west of I-35 tuesday afternoon as negative tilt upper
trough moves toward the plains states, with a strong jet streak
rounding the base of the trough into the southern high plains by
00z. Cap should hold through a good portion of the day but
approaching upper support will overcome it late in the day with
storms erupting near dry line late Tue afternoon and quickly
becoming severe with supercell structure favored. Overall coverage
of storms remains uncertain as does the most favored location of
significant severe weather. Expect an overall increase in storm
coverage through the evening as upper low moves east with severe
threat continuing a good portion of the Tuesday night period.

Wednesday looking less active for this area overall though
boundary will still be in place across eastern sections, thus
chance of storms will be maintained with severe weather possible.
A lot will depend on how Tuesday night evolves. Drier air will
spread over the area Thursday and provide a break before another
upper level system follows with thunderstorm chances returning by
Thursday night and continuing into the weekend. Heavy rainfall may
become more of a concern versus severe weather during that time
frame.

TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

$$


&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...22



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