Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 232345
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
545 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH
PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER MLC/FYV/FSM. DRIER AIR
WAS PUSHING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH...HELPING TO ERODE THE
LOW CEILINGS ALLOWING FOR BVO/TUL/RVS/XNA/ROG TO LIFT INTO VFR
CONDITIONS. ONCE PRECIP EXITS THE REGION...THE REST OF THE TAF
SITES SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT BACK INTO VFR CONDITIONS BY EARLY
MORNING TUESDAY. DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...SKIES ARE FORECAST TO
CLEAR OUT WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 PM CST MON FEB 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LAST WAVE OF SNOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AT THIS TIME. THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SNOW IS DIMINISHING AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN
FROM THE NORTH AND THE OVERALL DIMINISHING TREND SHOULD CONTINUE
UNTIL THE SNOW EXITS THE AREA THIS EVENING. WILL LET THE CURRENT
ADVISORY RIDE UNTIL 6 PM AS MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOULD
BE WINDING DOWN BY THAT TIME.

A MODEST WARMUP WILL TAKE PLACE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY
IN AREAS WHERE LITTLE OR NO SNOW IS ON THE GROUND. ANOTHER ARCTIC
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A LITTLE
LIGHT SNOW MAY FOLLOW THIS BOUNDARY BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK VERY
SIGNIFICANT AT THIS TIME.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE
ECMWF SHOWING ANOTHER SNOW EVENT FRIDAY WHILE THE GFS AND GEM KEEP
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST AND SOUTH. WILL CONTINUE LOW
POPS FOR NOW DURING THIS PERIOD. BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
OCCUR THIS WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING ENOUGH TO CHANGE
EVERYTHING TO RAIN. THIS PRECIPITATION MAY END AS A LIGHT WINTRY
MIX SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER COLD
FRONT.

STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH
SOME ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO ACCOUNT FOR DEEPER SNOW COVERED AREAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   17  46  23  52 /  20   0   0   0
FSM   21  38  24  48 /  30  10  10  10
MLC   18  38  22  47 /  20  10  10  10
BVO   13  46  18  52 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   14  41  19  51 /  20  10   0  10
BYV   14  41  20  50 /  10  10   0  10
MKO   18  40  22  48 /  20   0  10  10
MIO   14  42  19  51 /  10   0   0  10
F10   18  40  22  49 /  20  10  10  10
HHW   22  40  25  48 /  20  10  30  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-
     OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-
     OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-
     OKZ076.

AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY FOR ARZ010-ARZ011-
     ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...20





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