Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS64 KTSA 172012
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
312 PM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms continue to impact
parts of northeast OK and northwest AK this afternoon. This
activity has an obvious tropical tap on water vapor imagery...with
plume of moisture from tropical storm Norma stretching through TX
into OK. Localized rainfall amounts around 1-2" have occurred so
far. The rain-cooled air has resulted in a well-defined
outflow/differential heating boundary rough along the I-40
corridor...and we`re monitoring recently developed strong
convection near this feature. The atmosphere is quite unstable and
rather meager shear suggests that strong/severe winds will be the
main threat...along with some hail. This activity should begin to
weaken this evening with the loss of heating.

Short term models continue to show additional convection
developing to our west overnight...and making a run toward the
forecast area. Confidence isn`t overly high with this
scenario...and any activity would likely be weakening as it
reaches our area. Have maintained low chance PoPs...mainly for
northeast OK/northwest AR. Any leftover boundaries should
dissipate or lift north later Monday as southerly flow returns.

The upper pattern will become increasingly amplified by mid-late
week as a deep longwave trof develops across the western states.
Modestly increasing mid-level heights/temps should generally keep
convection at bay...with any synoptic boundaries remaining to our
west. Aforementioned trof will make some progress east going into
next weekend...and have kept low end PoPs in the forecast for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   70  90  71  92 /  30  30  20  20
FSM   69  91  70  92 /  10  10  10  20
MLC   69  91  72  92 /  20   0  10  10
BVO   69  87  68  92 /  40  40  20  20
FYV   67  87  67  87 /  20  10  10  20
BYV   67  87  68  88 /  20  20  20  20
MKO   68  89  70  91 /  20  20  10  20
MIO   68  85  67  90 /  40  30  20  20
F10   70  90  71  92 /  20  20  10  10
HHW   69  91  71  91 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....18



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.