Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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863
FXUS64 KTSA 232258
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
558 PM CDT Tue May 23 2017

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions generally prevail across the region with brief MVFR
ceilings and chances for brief showers into the early evening
across NW AR. Lower MVFR cigs may return late tonight an continue
into mid morning. Will only carry tempo groups at this time
however. VFR conditions expected by late morning or early
afternoon with W-NW sfc winds increasing for the last portion of
the TAF period.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 331 PM CDT Tue May 23 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Upper low centered over Iowa this afternoon forecast to drop south
toward the lower Mississippi Valley through Wednesday, with a cold
front being driven south of the area this evening. Precip chances
will be confined to the evening period, with slightly more
widespread precip within frontal zone from northwest AR to near
the Red River, and additional isolated showers associated with
colder temps aloft moving south out of Kansas that may impact
parts of northeast OK. A rumble or two of thunder not out of the
question but will not include in the forecast.

Skies should clear across much of eastern OK tonight with temps
well below normal in a cool and dry continental airmass diving
south. Clouds will be more persistent across western AR
through Wednesday given proximity of upper low, with a few
showers possible through the day. Temperatures remain below normal
especially in eastern areas. Will see another relatively chilly
night Wednesday night before a quick warm up ensues Thursday with
a return of south winds.

Very warm and humid airmass returns especially by Friday with
upper level flow becoming more westerly and increasing south
winds. Frontal boundary becomes established just to our north and
model guidance continues to support MCS north of the front
Thursday night, which may drive boundary a little farther south,
but still expect our area to remain on the warm side, with highs
approaching/exceeding 90 south of the front as low level winds
veer. There is a small chance of a few thunderstorms near the
boundary Friday afternoon, however a stout cap should be in place
by then. Another MCS possible Friday night...getting to be that
season...which could make a run at parts of the forecast area.

Above mentioned boundary will gradually push through the area
early in the Memorial Day weekend, with highest thunderstorm
chances still appearing to be Saturday into Saturday night as the
main upper trough moves across the central plains. Given expected
instability there will be a threat of severe storms, but the
overall setup does not look conducive to widespread significant
severe weather. Last half of the holiday weekend looks dry and
pleasant behind cold front, but in true late may fashion,
thunderstorm chances may return as early as next Tuesday.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...23



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