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000
FXUS64 KTSA 161609
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1109 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of today )
Issued at 1100 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Convective activity this morning has remained quite muted with just
some light showers affecting portions of E OK & NW AR. A sharp N-S
theta-e gradient was apparent from near Bartlesville south-
southwest to near Thackerville, marking the current position of
the Pacific front. This boundary will continue to move eastward
this morning into AR by this afternoon. Reinvigorated attempts at
convection are expected this afternoon with diurnal heating,
though much of this activity may end up developing east of the
forecast area... perhaps clipping the eastern-most counties in SE
OK/ NW AR.

While inhibition will probably continue to temper storm chances in
the near term... as advertised by many CAMs... will maintain chance
PoPs along/ ahead of the front over the next several hours (exiting
the CWA this afternoon). If a storm can establish itself, there
remains a limited, conditional severe threat for large hail,
damaging winds, and a non-zero tornado threat. Otherwise, skies
will clear from west to east today, with gusty SW winds for much
of the FA (30-40 mph...isolated higher gusts possible). With
plentiful sunshine expected behind the front and downsloping
winds, temps are forecast to warm back into the upper 70s/ 80s
this afternoon. Additionally, dewpoints are falling into the 30s
behind the front and elevated to near critical fire weather
conditions may develop late this morning and afternoon in Osage
and Pawnee counties. Have issued and RFD for this area as a
result.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Wednesday will likely be the warmest day of the forecast period,
with afternoon high temperatures climbing well into the 80s. A
strong cold front will sweep across the forecast area Thursday
afternoon and early evening, and scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop in the vicinity of this
boundary. The front is trending faster than previously suggested,
which will keep the greatest severe weather chances confined to
southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas Thursday afternoon and
evening. Gusty northwest winds and falling temperatures are
expected across northeast Oklahoma Thursday afternoon following
the frontal passage.

The front will stall to our south Friday and Saturday, with
showers and a few thunderstorms expected to redevelop north of the
boundary during this time period. The highest rainfall chances and
amounts will be across the southern part of our forecast area,
mainly Friday night into Saturday night.

Dry and seasonably cool weather will return for early next week
ahead of the next frontal boundary which looks to arrive around
Tuesday or Wednesday of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 535 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

MVFR conditions prevail early this morning with isolated
showers/storms moving across the area. This trend will continue
through the morning. VFR conditions return later this morning and
into this afternoon from west to east behind the Pacific front moving
through the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   84  56  87  66 /  30   0   0  20
FSM   82  62  88  66 /  40   0   0  10
MLC   84  58  86  68 /  40   0   0  10
BVO   83  51  85  59 /  30   0   0  20
FYV   79  54  84  60 /  50   0   0  20
BYV   78  57  84  62 /  30   0   0  10
MKO   83  56  87  66 /  40   0   0  10
MIO   81  55  83  62 /  50   0   0  30
F10   83  56  87  66 /  30   0   0  10
HHW   82  64  83  67 /  50  10   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...10