Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 040451
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1151 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
SHOULD BE COMMON OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
THESE CONDITIONS FOR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WILL ALLOW FOR AREAS OF
FOG AND LOW CIG/VIS TO DEVELOP. GREATER CHANCES FOR FOG LOOK TO BE
OVER LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL TODAY...FYV/XNA/ROG. DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY...CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME VFR ACROSS
THE REGION WITH VARIABLE WINDS. SMALL PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY...THOUGH WITH LIMITED COVERAGE WILL KEEP
MENTION OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 909 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
THE NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DID NOT MOVE MUCH
OVER THE PAST 24HRS AND REMAINED OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TODAY. AT THE SAME TIME...AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROF AXIS WAS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. THIS ALLOWED
FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO AGAIN DEVELOP ALONG AND NEAR THE
BOUNDARY AND PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS. BY THIS EVENING...CURRENT AREAS OF CONVECTION HAD BEGUN
TO WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND A STRENGTHENING
CAP.

OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AS THE TROF AXIS
EXITS TO THE EAST AND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY FINALLY BEGINS TO SHIFT
EAST SOUTHEAST. LIKE LAST NIGHT...AN ISOLATED STRONG WIND
GUST/HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL COULD BE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...THOUGH NOT ANTICIPATING
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT.

ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...CLOUD COVER
LOOKS TO SCATTER OUT DURING THE NIGHT. THIS COULD CREATE SOME
PATCHY AREAS OF FOG OVER LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL IN
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL AID IN LOW TEMPS TONIGHT
FALLING INTO THE 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH LOW 70S POSSIBLE
SOUTH OF THE FRONT OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. EVENING UPDATE WILL
BE TO ADJUST POPS/WX/SKY GRIDS BASED ON THE MENTIONED
ABOVE...OTHERWISE CURRENT FORECAST SEEMS TO BE HANDLING WELL AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   68  89  72  89 /  10   0  30  50
FSM   70  90  71  90 /  40  20  20  50
MLC   70  89  73  90 /  40  10  40  50
BVO   65  89  68  89 /  10   0  30  40
FYV   64  85  65  87 /  20  30  20  40
BYV   64  84  66  86 /  20  10  10  30
MKO   68  89  71  89 /  20  10  30  60
MIO   65  88  68  89 /  10   0  20  40
F10   68  89  72  89 /  20  10  30  60
HHW   71  90  72  90 /  60  40  30  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20


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