Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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870
FXUS64 KTSA 241146
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
646 AM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Few to scattered mid/high clouds and breezy southerly wind are
expected today across Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop along and near a
cold front out west during the day...some of which could push into
Northeast Oklahoma this afternoon. Greater thunderstorm chances
look to be after 00z for Northeast Oklahoma with lesser chances
for Southeast Oklahoma. A small chance will be possible for
Northwest Arkansas tonight...with the greater chances just
outside this TAF period. Increasing mid clouds should be common
for Eastern Oklahoma tonight...while scattered mid/high clouds
continue for Northwest Arkansas. VFR conditions should persist
through the period...though periods of MVFR conditions may be
possible within any stronger precipitation.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 313 AM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...
One more day of unseasonably warm weather before significantly
cooler conditions Sunday through much of next week. Showers and
thunderstorms will likely develop west of the area this afternoon
as upper trough becomes highly amplified over the Rockies. A few
of these storms could move into northeast Oklahoma by late
afternoon/early evening. Better thunderstorm chances will likely
develop tonight as strong cold front moves into northeast Oklahoma
by mid morning Sunday. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible
across portions of northeast Oklahoma mainly along and north of
the I-44 corridor.

Showers and thunderstorms will likely continue as front pushes
southward during the day. Overall precipitation coverage/amounts
should begin to decrease by Sunday evening as stronger forcing in
association with upper trough continues lifting northeast.
Lingering showers will remain possible across southeast Oklahoma
and northwest Arkansas into Monday morning before rain chances
end as drier air filters into the region behind front.

Cool/dry conditions expected through the middle part of next week
as surface high pressure builds across the southeast. Upper low
that develops over the desert southwest should continue to retrograde
westward and not be a significant factor in overall weather. Upper
ridge will begin to build back into the southern plains late week
with a slow warming trend. A dry air-mass will remain in place
allowing for cool nights and near or slightly above normal daytime
high temperatures.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   89  70  79  55 /  30  80  80  30
FSM   93  72  88  64 /  10  20  40  40
MLC   90  71  82  63 /  20  50  70  40
BVO   89  69  75  52 /  40  80  80  20
FYV   88  66  82  54 /  10  20  50  40
BYV   89  68  82  59 /  10  20  40  40
MKO   89  70  82  60 /  20  50  80  30
MIO   88  67  78  55 /  20  60  80  40
F10   88  70  79  60 /  30  70  80  30
HHW   91  72  87  64 /  10  20  40  40

&&

.TSA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20



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