Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
FXUS64 KTSA 281132
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
632 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2016
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Scattered areas of LIFR-MVFR conditions this morning across
Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas will remain possible
into the mid morning hours. Across the rest of the CWA this
morning and everywhere this afternoon and evening...scattered to
broken mid/high clouds are expected to become common. Small
thunderstorm chances will be possible over the CWA and will carry
afternoon VCTS for Northeast Oklahoma. Overnight...greater
chances are forecast for Northeast Oklahoma as an MCS approaches.
For now will continue prob30 groups for BVO/TUL/RVS. VFR
conditions mid morning through the rest of the TAF period will be
possible...though periods of MVFR conditions will be capable
within any thunderstorm activity.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 318 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2016/
The transition to a NW flow regime is underway. The first in what
will be multiple rounds of MCS activity to close out the week is
moving south across western KS early this morning. This complex
is not expected to move into our area. The increasing NW flow in
the mid levels is also shunting the deep layer moist axis that has
been in place over our area the past couple of days to the south
and east. As a result, convective coverage this afternoon is not
expected to be near as great as the past couple of days.
The biggest challenge for this forecast package will be focused on
MCS activity Thursday night and again on Friday night. Some of the
data this morning suggest that tonight`s MCS will track more south
into W/Central OK rather than NE OK. The latest runs of the HRRRX
and the 06z NAM are trending farther east into NE OK. Will go likely
pops to the N and W of Tulsa after midnight tonight, where
confidence is highest.
More than likely another MCS will track across the Plains Friday
night into Saturday as well. The track of this MCS will likely
depend on where the effective boundary is left behind from
tonight`s MCS. The NAM suggests that the effective boundary will
be farther south and thus tracks the MCS across southern OK. The
global models /GFS-ECMWF/ suggest the storm track will be farther
north. Given the uncertainty, and I hate to sound like a broken
record here, I`m inclined to broad brush middle ground pops until
things become more clear. Rising mid level heights and a
retreating boundary suggest that the best chances for storms/MCS
will stay to our north and east on Saturday night. Aside from some
isolated to widely scattered afternoon storms mainly in the
terrain, the weekend will close out on a quiet note.
Mid level ridging will prevail over the region next week. High
temps will climb back into the upper 90s across Eastern OK and
West Central AR. May need another round of heat headlines as a
result. Enjoy the relatively cooler and wetter weather this week.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 94 71 89 72 / 30 50 40 40
FSM 93 73 91 74 / 30 20 40 40
MLC 92 72 91 71 / 20 20 40 40
BVO 93 69 87 68 / 30 60 40 40
FYV 89 68 86 66 / 30 20 40 40
BYV 90 69 87 67 / 30 20 40 40
MKO 93 72 89 71 / 30 30 40 40
MIO 92 69 87 67 / 30 30 40 40
F10 92 72 89 70 / 30 30 40 40
HHW 90 72 92 73 / 30 20 40 40