138
FXUS61 KRLX 080721
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
221 AM EST Sat Nov 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front brings showers and possible storms this evening and
tonight. Weak high pressure Saturday. Colder and unsettled
early next week, with the first snow of the season.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 220 AM Saturday...

Events unfold in quick succession this weekend, even with a
tranquil Saturday afternoon and evening on tap.

Showers and thunderstorms ahead of a weak cold front were still
just moving into and through the mountains early this morning.
Clearing and diminishing flow in the wake of this activity was
already allowing dense fog to form over the middle Ohio Valley,
and have issued a Dense Fog Advisory for the middle Ohio Valley
to match neighbors to the west and southwest until 10 AM this
morning. Otherwise areas of fog and low stratus and
stratocumulus are also likely farther east early this morning as
the mid and high cloud associated with the mid/upper-level
short wave trough tied to the cold front moves east. These area
will be watched for at least a special weather statement for
fog this morning.

With light low level flow today as weak high pressure crosses,
it may take all morning for the dense fog to lift into stratus
and then stratocumulus, and eventually into a fair weather
cumulus field at some point this afternoon.

Tonight will start mainly clear and calm, which may allow fog
to begin forming overnight tonight. But then, the next
mid/upper-level short wave trough and surface low pressure
center approaches. Increase in higher cloud and southerly flow
may preclude or reverse fog formation before dawn Sunday.

The cold front quickly whips across the area Sunday morning and
midday, as the surface low and mid/upper-level short wave trough
lift out to the northeast through the upper Ohio Valley and
eastern Great Lakes. A relatively solid band of showers crosses
Sunday morning and midday, but quick movement and less
available moisture compared with the system just now exiting
will lead to more modest rainfall amounts. Also, the early
timing, and limited inflow and moisture ahead of the front,
preclude instability and thunder this go around.

Southerly flow will increase a bit ahead of the cold front
early Sunday morning, and then a bit further out of the west as
the front crosses on Sunday. Widespread showers develop Sunday
afternoon in the cold advection, with a mid-level short wave
trough approaching from the southwest, aided in and near the
mountains given the increasing upslope low level flow in the
wake of the surface/low-level low. Peak gusts Sunday afternoon
will likely be at least 25 to 30 mph, highest over the ridges,
making for a blustery and rudely chillier afternoon.

H85 temperatures drop below 0C from west to east in the wake of
the front crossing Sunday afternoon, getting to the mountains
late. This could allow precipitation to at least mix with snow
over the higher terrain late, and in interior southeast Ohio
just beyond.

After bottoming out front the lower 40s over the higher ridges
and northwest, interior southeast OH, near normal there, to
around 50 in the eastern lowlands and foothills, above normal,
this morning, temperatures also top near normal today and bottom
out near normal tonight northwest, and above normal today and
tonight elsewhere, with 60s corralling lowland highs today.
After lows in the 40s tonight, again near normal northeast to
above normal elsewhere, lowland temperatures will climb well
into the 50s ahead of the cold front Sunday morning across the
WV lowlands and foothills and southwest VA, and around 50
northwest, before falling back through the 50s, 40s northwest,
Sunday afternoon in the cold advection behind the front, as
sunshine to counteract the cold advection is stunted by the
cloud cover and showers.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1235 AM Saturday...

500MB upper-low as deep as around 525 dam drops out of the
northern plains and over the IN/MI/OH area of The Great Lakes
region, taking aim at our area. Subsequent trough will move over
the area Sunday night into Monday allowing for a change over
from rain to a rain/snow mix (all snow above 3,500 feet)Sunday
evening before midnight as much colder air races in to the
region. Eventually a change over to all snow will occur across
most of the area very early Monday morning, with intermittent
snow continuing most of the day Monday.

Amounts will be dependent on how quickly the colder temperatures
move in and usher the change over to all snow. More confident in
amounts between 1 and 3 inches across the mountains with some
locally higher amounts possible. Most of the lowlands however,
will remain below an inch with a few locations across the
northern lowlands and in the foothills achieving or just
breaking past an inch.

This will be the first taste of winter with temperatures falling
fast into the 20s Sunday night into Monday morning. A flash
freeze will likely occur making the morning commute slick on top
of any added snowfall. High temperatures on Monday will
generally only stay in 30s across lowlands. The mountains will
stay down in the 20s to the lower 30s. Gusty westerly winds with
this system will create very cold wind chills, particularly
across the higher elevations of the northeastern mountains where
wind chills will feel like the single digits.

West to east tapering off of snow will gradually occur Monday
night with additional light accumulations less than an inch
being picked up across the mountains and foothills. Low
temperatures will be very cold with the lowlands dropping into
the 20s and the mountains in the teens and lower 20s. Paired
with gusty winds, wind chills will be in the teens and single
digits across the area. Locations above 3,000 feet could see
wind chills in the negatives, but currently look to remain above
cold weather advisory criteria.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 105 AM Saturday...

Snow showers will be completing their exodus early Tuesday, but
gusty winds will continue with a southwesterly shift looking
probable. A brief wind advisory may be needed along the higher
elevation zones of Pocahontas and Randolph counties Tuesday as
wind gusts will be right around or just below 40 mph. This
southwesterly shift looks to moderate the temperatures some on
Tuesday with the lowlands sneaking back up into the low to mid
40s. The mountains however, will still remain in the 20s and
30s. Temperatures will continue to moderate gradually through
the end of the week into the weekend.

A series of disturbances will bring chances for showers
Wednesday and possibly later in the weekend, but a dry spells
looks to be in the works Thursday through Friday. As a result of
these disturbances, it is possible extra wind advisories may be
needed for the aforementioned locations Wednesday into
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 220 AM Saturday...

A few last bands of showers and thunderstorms moving into and through
the mountains overnight may still impact BKW with lightning and
brief MVFR visibility in rain. This would increase the chance
for dense fog there early this morning, WITH low stratus already
there. Otherwise, winds may be elevated just enough to deter
fog development early on. However river valley fog will likely
eventually develop as the sky clears and the flow slackens, and
become somewhat dense. This was already becoming the case in the
middle Ohio Valley and have already amended PKB and HTS
accordingly and have issued a Dense Fog Advisory there until
15Z, and maintained low fog and stratus in the forecast farther
east mostly 10-14Z this morning, with MVFR stratocumulus before
and after. The MVFR stratocu afterward will last through the
morning hours, before lifting into a VFR cumulus deck this
afternoon. VFR conditions are expected to start tonight.

Light west to southwest surface flow, except variable and
perhaps gusty near CRW and BKW first hour or two of the
forecast, will become calm tonight. Light to moderate west to
northwest flow aloft early this morning will become light
southwest today and remain so tonight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR to LIFR fog may vary early this
morning including IFR or lower visibility earlier and last
longer than forecast. More widespread MVFR/IFR ceilings may
develop early this morning and linger longer than currently
forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   SAT 11/08/25
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    H    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    M    M    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    L    H    M    M    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
IFR conditions are possible Sunday into Monday in occasional
rain and snow showers.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for WVZ005>010.
OH...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for OHZ066-067-
     075-076-083>087.
KY...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for KYZ101>103-
     105.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRM/LTC
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...LTC
LONG TERM...LTC
AVIATION...TRM