940
FXUS64 KFWD 172351
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
651 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Tonight and Tomorrow/

Isolated thunderstorms are expected across parts of North Texas
for the next couple hours. A shortwave trough is interacting
with a weak surface boundary just to the southeast of the
Metroplex. We have had a few weak updrafts produce light rain
showers in parts of Ellis and Kaufman counties earlier in the
afternoon, but not much more than that due to the weak updrafts
being unable to overcome substantial dry air entrainment. Over the
next couple hours, we expect some updrafts to be more successful
and develop into a few thunderstorms. The shortwave trough itself
may also produce an isolated shower or two across far North Texas
this evening, but the chance of this occurring is only around 20%.
All precip should end between 9PM and midnight.

Mostly clear skies are expected tonight with light surface winds.
The aforementioned surface boundary will wash out and allow south
flow to return at all locations by midnight. This will start to
subtly nudge better moisture north through the early morning
hours. Clear skies, light winds, damp/wet soils, and the subtle
increase of moisture should allow for patchy fog to develop across
the eastern parts of our forecast area early tomorrow morning. Fog
is most likely, and may be dense in spots, across eastern Central
Texas where we are forecasting a 3-4 degree crossover temperature.
The fog would be shallow and burn off by mid-morning.

Late spring heat returns tomorrow with most locations topping out
in the low 90s and heat index values a couple degrees above the
ambient temperature. Unfortunately, the winds will remain light,
making it feel even hotter.

Bonnette

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 256 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024/
/Saturday Night Onward/

A mid level ridge will create above-normal temperatures across
the board late weekend through early next week. Increasing
southerly low level flow will simultaneously increase dewpoints by
drawing Gulf moisture northward through the region. A hot and
humid stretch can hence be expected for the first half of the
week, with Tuesday likely being the most oppressive as heat
indices peak around 100 in the afternoon.

Despite the heat, the ridge will begin to weaken on Tuesday as a
pair shortwaves traverse the Plains. The first will send a weak
cold front southward to near the Red River on Tuesday, likely
bolstering the afternoon heat due to compressional warming south
of the front. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday
afternoon and evening, but most of this activity will remain
north of the Red River. The second shortwave will push the front
farther south into the forecast area on Wednesday. The front will
provide focus for thunderstorm development Wednesday afternoon and
evening. Some storms may end up being severe based on the 40+ kt
of deep layer shear and good instability being advertised by model
guidance over the past few days. Another round of convection
appears likely on Thursday as a third shortwave passes through the
Southern Plains, with a few storms again possibly being strong to
severe. The presence of the surface boundary may also lead to
training storms and localized flooding.

With all that said, it is still too soon to delve into the
specifics regarding timing and intensity, but we will gather more
details as higher resolution guidance is received over the next
few days. The ridge will restrengthen next Friday, returning the
region to warm and humid weather to end the week. A slight chance
of storms may return next weekend as mid range guidance hints at
some possible dryline activity during the final week of May.

30

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

North flow will continue for the next few hours at the D10
terminals. Isolated storms are also expected east/southeast of
D10 that will likely cause minor deviations for EBND departures
and Cedar Creek arrivals. All storms should dissipate between
03-06Z.

The winds will become very light after 01Z with prevailing south
flow returning by 04-05Z at all terminals. VFR is expected, but
there may be some patchy fog in the early morning hours east of
the D10 and ACT terminals.

Bonnette

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    67  92  71  91  73 /  10   0   0   0   0
Waco                65  89  69  88  69 /  10   0   0   0   0
Paris               63  87  66  88  69 /  20   0   0   0   0
Denton              64  91  68  91  71 /  20   0   0   0   0
McKinney            65  90  68  90  71 /  20   0   0   0   0
Dallas              67  92  71  91  73 /  10   0   0   0   0
Terrell             64  89  68  88  69 /  20   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           66  90  70  90  71 /  10   0   0   0   0
Temple              65  89  68  88  69 /   5   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       63  92  68  91  71 /   5   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$