231
FXUS64 KAMA 051848
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
148 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 147 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Quiet weather is forecast for today across the Panhandles with
temperatures above average and light winds. Similar conditions are
forecast for Thursday with the exception being the potential for
showers and thunderstorms across the southern CWA during the
afternoon into the evening hours. Some of the storms could be
strong to severe with large hail and damaging wind gusts the
primary hazards.

Upper level ridging remains across the western CONUS this
afternoon with surface temperatures mainly in the 80s at the time
of this writing. Warm air advection in the low levels is not as
strong as it was yesterday which is keeping temperatures a bit
cooler for highs today. In other words, it is a fairly nice June
day of the Panhandles, albeit a bit on the warm side for this
time of year.

Center of high pressure moves east tonight through the day
tomorrow but ridging will still remain in place across the region.
A weak surface cold front is forecast to sweep across the Plains
tonight into tomorrow. The front is expected to slow down and
potentially stall across the central or southern Texas Panhandle
by late morning to early afternoon. WAA out ahead of this feature
is forecast to be rather strong, with H850 temperatures
potentially reaching the lower 30s C by mid afternoon. With the
front in place across the area, more than sufficient daytime
heating, and good moisture return, some showers and storms should
develop along the surface boundary during the afternoon into the
evening hours. Even though the shear and steering flow will be
very weak, ample instability exists throughout the column for a
few strong to severe storms to develop. The primary hazards should
any storms become severe would be large hail up to quarter size
and damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph. Additionally, forecast PWAT
values are looking to be above the climatological 90th percentile
and near the max for June 6. If this comes to fruition, heavy
rainfall would be possible and could lead to localized flash
flooding, especially if storms are slow moving. A weak shortwave
riding the top of the ridge looks to move down across CO/KS
overnight on Thursday and some of the showers/storms generated by
this wave could move across the northeastern Panhandles late on
Thursday night. The overnight storms are currently not expected
to be severe, but there could be some elevated instability to work
with so this potential will need to be monitored.

Muscha

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 147 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

A series of ridge rollers and/or perturbations from the mean H500
NW flow will feature the daily diurnally driven chances for
showers and thunderstorms. In particular, a back door cold front
during the second half of Saturday will bring the best chances for
more robust storms. Even though each day could feature strong to
severe storms based off of diurnal trends, Saturday in particular
will feature the more notable area of lift near the front. Any
severe thunderstorms that can form, damaging winds and large hail
will be the primary threat. With decent PWAT values for June
standards, along with training storms, locally heavy rainfall
could also produce some flooding concerns that we will have to
monitor closely.

High temperatures to start the forecast period will be well into
the 90s wit ha few location sin the 100-105 range on Friday and
Saturday. Some location may need a headline for the impactful
temperatures during this time period. After the main front comes
through, temperatures drop to below average from Sunday into early
next week before moderating to near average at the end of the
forecast period.

Meccariello

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

VFR conditions are forecast with this TAF cycle. Winds will mainly
be out of the south around 10 to 15 kts before becoming
southwesterly. A weak front will begin moving across the
Panhandles around 12z or after and winds will gradually shift to
out of the north at KDHT/KGUY. The front will likely slow down and
may not make it through KAMA until after 18z.

Muscha

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                68  97  65  99 /   0  30  30  10
Beaver OK                  66  89  63  99 /   0  10  30  20
Boise City OK              61  88  60  99 /   0  10  20  20
Borger TX                  70  99  66 104 /   0  20  20  10
Boys Ranch TX              68 100  65 104 /   0  20  20  10
Canyon TX                  67  99  64  99 /   0  30  30  10
Clarendon TX               66  97  66  97 /   0  30  30  10
Dalhart TX                 63  93  60 101 /   0  10  20  20
Guymon OK                  63  89  61 100 /   0  10  20  20
Hereford TX                67 100  67 101 /   0  30  30  10
Lipscomb TX                68  91  65  97 /   0  20  20  20
Pampa TX                   68  94  65  97 /   0  20  20  10
Shamrock TX                66  95  66  97 /   0  30  20  10
Wellington TX              66  99  68  98 /   0  30  30  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...05