Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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133 FXUS64 KAMA 250528 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1228 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 938 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Looking at the latest 25/00z CAMs, most guidance does have a dry line developing across the far eastern Panhandles by Saturday afternoon. How far west the dry line remains varies from model to model, but there is more consistency that the dry line will remain across the eastern stack of counties in the CWA. With that being said, plenty of moisture out ahead of the feature combined with lift from the dry line and weak forcing aloft may generate a storm or two across the east by late afternoon. Have introduced low end mentionable 10 percent chance of storms to the forecast with this update. If storms do form across the east, they could quickly become severe with the primary hazard being large hail up to golf ball size. Muscha && .SHORT TERM ... (This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 234 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Dry weather continues to hold over the Panhandles after the cold frontal passage late last night. Temperatures for the day are still on schedule to run slightly cooler than the last couple days with afternoon highs peaking around the low to mid 80s for today. As we head into the overnight, look for winds to shift back to southerly with the incoming weak trough and southwesterly flow that will follow in the upper-levels. Moving into Saturday, look for this southwesterly flow to hold for the day and aid in creating a very dry and gusty day for the Panhandles. Currently, latest guidance expects relative humidity values to bottom out across the Panhandles with most of the western counties looking at values in the single digits by that afternoon. Meanwhile, an upper-level jet will look to follow the weak trough into the area and bleed down to create gusty condition across the Panhandles. As it stand, southwesterly winds reaching the 25 to 30 mph mark with gust nearing 45 mph are possible, especially in the western Panhandles where winds are expected to be at their strongest. Of course when you add these dry conditions with gusty winds, critical fire weather is to be expected. At this time, a Red Flag Warning has been issue for the western half of the Panhandles that will run form noon Saturday afternoon until 8 pm that night. As for temperatures, look for them to rebound with many locations back into 90s with a couple of our hotter locations flirting with triple digits yet again. Otherwise, the only other concern for the day will be the very low potential of thunderstorms starting on the eastern border of the Panhandles before moving off into central Oklahoma. Scoleri && .LONG TERM ... (Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 234 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 A trough is still likely to have passed to the east of the southern plains which in doing so will pass a weak cold front across the panhandles early on Sunday. This will shift the winds to a more northerly direction and bring in slightly cooler dry air. This will make both Sunday and Memorial day warm with sunny skies with generally light winds. All in all in can be considered by most to be a pleasant weather day to kick off the start of summer. For Sunday and Monday a ridge still has a high chance to build across NM to MT. This coupled with the trough to the east will set up a broad NW flow across the southern plains. This pattern will induce a southerly return flow across the southern plains bringing in ample gulf moisture to the panhandles. This will allow for rain showers and thunderstorms to form across the panhandles. The amount of moisture has been increasing from previous forecasts so it is looking increasingly likely that meaningful rainfall will occur. The upper flow does have some indications that small perturbations will transit over the ridge passing across the panhandles. These could provide the additional lift and dynamics to cause stronger storms. However these remain uncertain so just know that there is a chance for those strong storms but they are not yet guaranteed. Next weekend looks more likely than not to have another pattern shift with the ridge pushing east across the panhandles while a trough quickly deepens across the West. This pattern shift indicates that the moisture feed should be cut off from the panhandles while conditions become increasingly stable. This would have the effect of lowering the amount of rain showers and thunderstorms and also keeping rainfall amounts low. Temperatures mid to end of next week look to remain fairly stable with highs mainly in the 80s to low 90s. Winds look to pick up a standard diurnal pattern of weakly gusty during the daytime and light overnight. SH && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1220 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 VFR conditions are forecast at all sites throughout the period. Winds currently out of the south will increase out of the southwest tomorrow, sustained at 20-25 kts, gusting around 35-40 kts. Some marginal LLWS still can`t be ruled out at KDHT tonight, but continue to lack confidence for including mentions at this time. Harrel && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 95 61 91 56 / 0 0 0 0 Beaver OK 95 57 89 53 / 10 0 0 0 Boise City OK 90 52 86 50 / 0 0 0 0 Borger TX 100 60 94 57 / 0 0 0 0 Boys Ranch TX 97 56 93 54 / 0 0 0 0 Canyon TX 95 58 91 53 / 0 0 0 0 Clarendon TX 95 63 91 58 / 0 0 0 0 Dalhart TX 91 51 88 50 / 0 0 0 0 Guymon OK 94 55 87 51 / 0 0 0 0 Hereford TX 96 58 92 54 / 0 0 0 0 Lipscomb TX 93 60 89 55 / 10 0 0 0 Pampa TX 95 60 89 55 / 0 0 0 0 Shamrock TX 95 64 91 58 / 10 0 0 0 Wellington TX 97 64 93 60 / 10 0 0 0 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 10 PM CDT this evening for TXZ001-002-006-007-011-012-016-017-317. OK...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 10 PM CDT this evening for OKZ001-002. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....98 AVIATION...38