951
FXUS64 KOUN 300730
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
230 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 220 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

MCS season continues. Two different complexes of storms are
organizing on radar and are set to move through our forecast area
over the next several hours into the morning.

The first originates with the storms currently over southwest
Kansas, moving them through northwest Oklahoma between 3 and 7 am.
These would be supported by a low level jet extending over the
panhandles into western Kansas, eastern flank of the jet over
northwest Oklahoma. These storms could be initially strong to
marginally severe (damaging winds being the main threat), but should
diminish quickly as they move east of the low level jet.

The second round originates with the storms northeast of Lubbock and
would pass southeast through western north Texas / southwest
Oklahoma. Instability and moisture are more ample through this
region, but the low level jet appears weaker. This environment would
seem to be a bit more supportive of marginally severe storms (again,
mainly a wind threat, with an additional concern for localized
flooding with training storms).

Daytime showers and storms will largely consist of the remnants of
these two MCS`s making their way eastward. Behind them, we should
see a lull in activity until the next round starts over the
panhandles late in the afternoon, though a few CAMs do produce some
isolated to scattered convection in western Oklahoma this afternoon.

Models are fairly consistent about bringing together storms off the
dryline this afternoon into an MCS that will traverse our area this
evening and overnight. Instability and low level shear (with upper
level support of a shortwave) should be supportive of severe wind
gusts with this complex.

With the multiple rounds of storms, heavy rain will also be a
concern.

Day

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 220 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

Models suggest that the MCS pattern will continue into the weekend,
albeit with lower confidence (20-30% PoPs). These low rain chances
continue into next week through the end of the forecast period under
more or less zonal flow.

Temperatures start to gradually increase this weekend into early
next week as the upper ridge tries to nudge back into the area and
daytime precipitation chances diminish.

Day

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1012 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

A complex of showers and thunderstorms are expected to move into
northwestern Oklahoma early Thursday and continue through much of
central and southern Oklahoma by afternoon. Gusty winds and hail
are possible with some storms. More storms are expected during the
evening in western Oklahoma. MVFR and IFR conditions are likely
in storms. East to southeast winds are expected outside of
thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  81  64  78  63 /  40  80  70  20
Hobart OK         84  63  81  63 /  40  80  60  30
Wichita Falls TX  83  65  81  66 /  50  70  60  20
Gage OK           84  59  81  59 /  50  80  30  30
Ponca City OK     81  64  76  61 /  40  80  70  20
Durant OK         82  67  81  67 /  50  70  90  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...09